Wimbledon Women 2017 Preview

Wimbledon Women 2017

Believe it or not, mayhem is not ruling the WTA tour this year.  In the absence of Serena, Sharapova, and Azarenka (and for half a year, Kvitova) there have been 26 different winners of 33 WTA tournaments in 2017.  But there are still certain players who consistently rise to the top.  Granted, naming a clear favourite is unpredictable, but to say ‘anyone can win’ is only true of about 20 or so players.  Which is still a large cast – and getting to know them can be enjoyable.

So how shocking was Jelena Ostapenko’s victory at the French last month?  In my end of year summary from November 2016, I named Ostapenko among a group of four young players whom I thought could threaten the top 10 this year.  So her victory was not a total surprise.  And it is very good for the WTA, I believe.  In Ostapenko we have a hard-hitting young player who can handle the pressure of claiming the biggest crowns. 

I have bemoaned the loss of fresh slam champions in recent years like Pennetta, Bartoli, Li, and even Clijsters.  Having another bona fide champ in the mix like Ostapenko adds to the buzz at WTA events.  She joins Muguruza and Kvitova as slam winners born in the 1990’s (something we have yet to see on the men’s side).  With the return of Azarenka and Kvitova to the tour, (not to mention Sharapova), the cast of potential winners at slam events is growing.  But who are the favourites for this Wimbledon?

There are only two former champs in the draw – Kvitova and Venus Williams.  Both are on my short list of favourites.  The other name in my top three is Karolina Pliskova.  Pliskova has never been past the second round at Wimbledon.  But she has been rapidly improving her slam record, going runner-up – quarter – semi, in her last three slam outings.  I expect this superlative form to continue at Wimbledon.  She’s just claimed the title in Eastbourne on grass and is the bookies pick for the title.

First Quarter

Embattled world #1 Angelique Kerber (seeded #1) heads the draw.  She’s had a dismal year posting only a 21-14 win-loss record.  As last year’s Wimbledon points come off the WTA rankings heading into the fortnight, she’s actually only in third spot, almost1000 points behind KaPliskova and 700 behind Halep.  She will likely need to win the tournament to remain #1.

Kerber’s first opponent, Irina Falconi, should not invoke too much fear, but Falconi has claimed the scalps of Cibulkova, Vandeweghe, Bouchard, Strycova, and Puig in the past.  The third round (3R) might pit Kerber against Lucie Safarova (seed 32) who is a former semi-finalist here.  If it happens, I’d say that match is a toss-up.  And it won’t get easier if Kerber meets former finalist Garbine Muguruza (14) in the fourth round.

The other half of the quarter is led by two-time slam champ Kuznetsova (7) who’s been to the quarterfinals (QF) three times, and by Agnieszka Radwanska (9) who’s had five trips to the QF or better including a runner-up showing in 2012.  Slam-dangerous Ekaterina Makarova, another former QFist, is near Kuzzie in the draw.

Olympic gold medalist Monica Puig faces Timea Bacsinszky (19) in the first round.  Nearby is Canadian 17-year old Bianca Andreescu, making her slam debut.  With a little luck she might win a couple rounds.  At the end of the day I would guess that Muguruza is most likely to emerge from the quarter.

Muguruza d. ARadwanska

Second Quarter

Karolina Pliskova (3) made a shocking run to the semis at Roland Garros last month.  She had not shown particular proclivity for clay leading up to the tournament, but so great is her current play that she nevertheless threatened for the title.  Now that she is on a surface that seems to suit her flat, skidding hitting style, her chances of success seem even greater.  While nothing can be taken for granted in women’s tennis, KaPliskova seems to have a fairly smooth ride through the 4R (although grass-loving Rybarikova in 2R may disagree) where she could run into rising Daria Gavrilova (20) or last year’s quarter-finalist Pavlyuchenkova (16).

The lower half of the quarter however, is chock full of dangerous players.  Kristina Mladenovic (12) has been enjoying a banner year and could meet former QFist Sloane Stephens in 2R.  Stephens is returning from injury and hasn’t played a slam match since last year’s Wimbledon.  Still, no one will be excited to face her. 

The potential winner could face Coco Vandeweghe (24) in 3R.  Vandeweghe splashed in Australia making SF in Melbourne.  Her big-hitting style could go far on grass, and did two years ago in a QF appearance.  A possible 2R for Coco is debutante Anastasia Potapova, only 16 years old.

That brings us to the second highest seed in this quarter, Caroline Wozniacki (5).  Despite good results elsewhere, Wozniacki has not been past 4R here despite five showings at that level.  She could be in a real fight in 2R if she meets Tsvetana Pironkova who has posted QF and SF results at the Big W.

Up and comer Daria Kasatkina (29), age 20, won Charleston this year over Ostapenko in the final.  In 2R she could face Anett Kontaveit, age 21, who’s already claimed a grass title this year, for a possible third rounder against Wozniacki.  The lower half is dense and I think Vandeweghe has the goods to rise out of it, possibly over Wozniacki, for the right to face KaPliskova for the semi spot.

KaPliskova d. Vandeweghe

Third Quarter

The highest seeds in this quarter are Elina Svitolina (4) and Dominika Cibulkova (8), although perhaps the most dangerous players here are those lower ranked.  Svitolina leads the tour with four titles this year, but has shown little love for grass, having won only two matches in four appearances at Wimbledon.  Cibulkova finished 2016 strongly but is batting only 500 this year, with a woeful 14-14 match record.  She’s won only two matches since March.

Ana Konjuh (27) knocked Victoria Azarenka out of her comeback tournament and has an intriguing opener against former Wimbledon finalist Sabine Lisicki.  Like Azarenka, Lisicki is returning to the tour in only her second tournament of the year.  She’s a bit of a Wimbledon specialist, but I think it’s probably too early in her comeback to expect a deep run. A 4R showing might be within reason, especially if Cibulkova continues below par.

Meeting her there could be Barbara Strycova (22), a former QFist, or Venus Williams (10), the five time champion, now age 37.  Venus has been putting together a solid year that includes a runner-up at the Australian and semis in Miami.  Grass is her best surface, so seeing her hoist the Venus Rosewater Dish as champion on the final weekend would be no surprise.  She at least has a reasonable draw to the QF.

The other half of this section has the considerable names of Svitolina, Ostapenko (13), Madison Keys (17), and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (26).  Lucic made the semis in Australia this year, as well as the semis at Wimbledon way back in 1999.  She put up a sterling first quarter this year, reaching a career high #20 at age 35.  I’m not sure what to expect from her at Wimbledon.  She can play on grass but has seemed a little off-form of late.

Svitolina (4) has a fascinating first rounder against Ashleigh Barty, age 21.  Barty has made the final of all four slams in doubles, but has yet to claim a crown.  She retired at age 18 in 2014 to play cricket in Australia, but returned to tennis briefly last year, and full time this year.  She claimed the 280 title in Kuala Lumpur and played a 3-set final with Kvitova last week in Birmingham, reaching a career-high ranking of #54. 

I consider Barty extremely potent and predict an upset of Svitolina.  She could have a notable 3R clash with Lucic, and could face Ostapenko or Keys in 4R. 

Ostapenko won junior Wimbledon in 2014 so must be considered a serious title contender in the wake of her French Open triumph last month.  She may be even better on grass than clay.  However it is quite common for new slam champions to experience a retrenchment period after breaking through on the slam stage, and I expect this from Ostapenko.  If she should successfully put that slam win behind her and triumph with the channel slam at the All England Club this year, it would indicate her true greatness – possibly a future dominant #1 and heir to the likes of Serena and Venus Williams and Sharapova.

Facing Ostapenko in 2R could be Canadian Francoise Abanda age 20, making her Wimbledon main draw debut.    The third round for Ostapenko could present Madison Keys (17).  Keys has been ranked as high as #7 and been touted a future top star of the sport.  However, she missed the start of 2017 and has struggled to re-find her form with only 4 match wins this year.  I think Keys is a potential future champion at Wimbledon, but may not be ready to go the distance this year.  Keys and Ostapenko have met once before, a 3-set victory for Keys on grass last year. Regardless of who may win that potential encounter, I’m picking Barty to win the fourth rounder and advance to face Venus in the quarters.

VWilliams d. Barty

Fourth Quarter

The last quarter is led by Simona Halep (2).  Halep is generally considered strongest on clay but did make the quarters here last year and the semis in 2014.  More pressing however, may be if she has recovered from the devastating loss of the French final after being up a set and 3-0 in the second set. 

The nearest seed, Carla Suarez Navarro (25), is also considered strongest on clay, but has been to 4R at Wimbledon twice before.  She opens against Eugenie Bouchard, finalist here in 2014.  The winner of that contest will face the winner of Shuai Peng, a three-time fourth-rounder here, or fast-rising 18 year old Marketa Vondrousova who claimed her first tour title this year.  It looks to be a real fight for the fourth round slot.

The next sixteenth is no easier and features last year’s semi-finalist Elena Vesnina (15), winner of the 1000 in Indian Wells this year.  Vesnina’s 2R could bring up either Victoria Azarenka or Cici Bellis.  Bellis, age 18, made the semis on grass in Mallorca last week and has shot up the rankings this year to #40 from #90 in January. 

Azarenka will be in just her second tournament since giving birth in December.  The former world #1 is a threat for the title at any tournament she plays, but it is unclear how much can be expected of her after a year away.  The opener against Bellis is far from easy, but I think she might pull it off.  Facing grass-loving Vesnina in 2R counts as a very tough draw, and things do not get easier in 3R if she should face Anastasija Sevastova (18) who copped a grass title last week.  The grass-redoubtable Heather Watson is also nearby, just for good measure.

Azarenka probably just edges out Vesnina as my favourite for this sixteenth and the right to face possibly Halep for the quarter-final spot.

The other half of the quarter has Johanna Konta (6) with a potentially tricky 2R against Donna Vekic.  Caroline Garcia (21) could face Petra Kvitova (11) in 3R.  The two-time former champ is my favourite for this section, but could have an almighty tussle with Konta in 4R.

Kvitova d. Azarenka

Semis

Muguruza is a former runner-up here and last year’s winner at the French.  She knows how to handle big-match pressure and will want to improve on her runner-up performance in the absence of Serena and Sharapova.  Karolina Pliskova was up a break in the third set of last year’s US Open final before being overcome by Kerber.  Muguruza hits with more margin on her shots, but Pliskova’s game may be more deadly on grass, provided she’s not missing.

KaPliskova d. Muguruza

I have the only two former champions in the draw meeting in the second semi-final.  Both love Wimbledon and count it as their favourite tournament.  Kvitova owns the head-to-head 4-1, including their only meeting at Wimbledon, in 2014.  Venus is playing well this year and has a more diverse game than Kvitova.  It’s very tough to call, but I think Kvitova will have the edge.

Pliskova d. VWilliams

Final

The bookies and expert opinion are split about equally between Pliskova and Kvitova.  Both Czechs are strong contenders.  Pliskova has shown the more consistent form this year, and a hiccup from Kvitova in only her third tournament after suffering a horrific injury to her playing hand last December, would hardly be surprising.  But with two Wimbledon titles under her belt, my vote goes for Petra.

Kvitova d. KaPliskova

Expert Opinion

Expert opinion I could locate at tennis.com and Sports Illustrated tallies 3 votes for KaPliskova, 3 votes for Kvitova, 1 vote for Muguruza, and 1 vote for VWilliams.

Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 27 June 2017

1	KaPliskova	5.5
2	Kvitova	6
3	Muguruza	11
4	VWilliams	13
5	Konta	13
6	Kerber	15
7	Ostapenko	15
8	Azarenka	17
9	Vandeweghe	17
10	Halep	21
11	Keys	23
12	Mladenovic	26
13	Svitolina	26
14	Barty	26
15	Wozniacki	34
16	ARadwanska	34
17	Cibulkova	41
18	Rybarikova	41
19	Kontaveit	41
20	Safarova	51
21	Bouchard	51
22	Garcia	51
23	Pavlyuchenkova	51
24	Kasatkina	51
25	Pironkova	51
26	Bacsinszky	51
27	Puig	51
28	Goerges	51
29	Stephens	67
30	Lisicki	67
31	KrPliskova	67
32	Kuznetsova	67
33	Konjuh	67
34	Vekic	67
35	Bencic	67
36	Vondrousova	67
37	Vesnina	67
38	Makarova	67
39	Sevastova	67
40	Strycova	81
41	Bertens	81
42	Lucic	101
43	Vinci	101
44	Vikhlyantseva	101
45	Davis	101
46	Putintseva	101
47	Stosur	101
48	Bellis	101
49	Gavrilova	101