Wimbledon Men 2017
Federer and Nadal have been ripping up the courts this year,
claiming four titles each in 2017. Nadal
took four of the big five European clay titles including a 10th
French Open in the most dominant form he has ever shown at that tournament –
and that’s saying something! He lost
only 35 games in sweeping to the title.
The only other years he won the French without losing a set were 2008
and 2010, the same years he claimed his two Wimbledon titles. Nadal is in dominant, confident form, and
must be considered a very serious threat for Wimbledon. Let’s not forget that Nadal made the final
five consecutive times he played Wimbledon, 2006-2011.
Meanwhile world #1 Andy Murray has looked decidedly
unthreatening this year. He did manage
to win one title at the 500 level in Dubai, but lost early at the Aus Open and
the four 1000 level tournaments he played.
It looked like he was turning it around at the French, where he nearly
made the final, losing a tough 5-setter to Wawrinka in the semis. But then he suffered a first round defeat on
grass – which is apparently his best surface.
Things do not look good for the defending Wimbledon champion. It’s possible he could play his way into form
during the tournament and then become a threat in the final weekend. A title is not unthinkable. Nor is an early round loss.
Novak Djokovic has made four Wimbledon finals in the last
six years, claiming three titles. But
he’s looked quite off-form in the first half of 2017. He’s fallen to #4 in the world, after
spending 325 consecutive weeks (more than 6 years) in the top 2 – a feat
bettered only by Federer.
|
|
Consecutive
weeks in ATP Top 2
|
|
Roger Federer
|
346
|
|
Novak Djokovic
|
325
|
|
Jimmy Connors
|
293
|
|
Ivan Lendl
|
280
|
But Novak has started to look a little better in the last
few weeks. He made the semis in Madrid,
the final in Rome, and the quarters at the French. Since losing his spark after winning the
non-calendar slam at last year’s French, I wondered if he would ever regain
it. The move to Andre Agassi as his
celebrity coach is interesting. Djokovic
seems to be looking for more than ‘just tennis’ to fill his life. Agassi may be exactly the right fit to help
him find balance while regaining his winning ways. Andre himself seemed to find balance in the
latter part of his career and had his greatest successes during that
period. Novak is still a formidable
player and seems on the cusp of impressive form. He could go deep at Wimbledon. Will it be enough to overcome a peaking Nadal
or Federer? I’m not convinced but I
wouldn’t rule it out.
What to make of Federer’s chances? He would seem a shoo-in for favourite. He’s lost only twice all year, and held match
points in both cases. He claimed a
record 18th slam title at the Australian, and has beaten arch-rival
Nadal four consecutive times, largely on the strength of his improved
backhand. Plus grass is his favourite
surface, as his seven Wimbledon titles attest.
However two factors give me pause in anointing him
prematurely. First is the superlative
form of Nadal. The second is less
tangible. Federer worked his way to the
Aus title with almost no expectation of success after being absent from
competition for nearly seven months.
That freed him up. Mentally he
was playing with house money – nothing to lose.
Still feeling somewhat incredulous perhaps, he stormed through the
sunshine double (Indian Wells and Miami), zinging his backhand all over the
court effortlessly.
But now things are different. He’s just won his ninth title in Halle on
grass, and this should be an indicator of how he might fare at Wimbledon. He’s been playing brilliantly all year, he’s
beating Nadal, he’s just won on grass.
While these are excellent omens, they also bring expectation. Federer wants to do well at Wimbledon. He says he’s been gearing the last 12 months
toward this. He has created expectation
for himself and will carry that burden with him throughout the tournament. Anything short of the title will be a
disappointment. That’s a lot of pressure
to carry. Federer has not always handled
pressure well, sometimes stumbling at the final hurdle like in the 2014 and
2015 Wimbledon finals.
So the Nadal camp, and most of the tennis world, are looking
at Federer as the favourite. That means
Nadal has great confidence, great form, and no pressure. The recipe favours Nadal. However, tempering this is the rather
mediocre play of Nadal at Wimbledon in the last five years. Nadal may have regained peak form this year,
but given the awesome form Federer has also demonstrated this year, it’s almost
impossible to choose between them.
Interestingly, whomever of Nadal or Murray goes deeper in
this tournament will likely emerge as #1 at the end of it. Murray holds a 105 point advantage in the
rankings, which gives him a two round cushion until the quarters. Wawrinka or Djokovic could also claim #1 by
winning, but Nadal and Murray would both have to lose before the semis. Even if he wins, Federer can finish no higher
than #3.
First
Quarter
Murray (seeded #1) opens against Alexander Bublik – the sort
of up and coming young player that could surprise a vet in the first
round. The second round (2R) could bring
up grass-savant Dustin Brown and 3R could have Murray against Jiri Vesely. Vesely is tall, powerful, and dangerous, and
made 4R at Wimbledon last year. Murray
will need to be sharp to get through his first three matches.
After that, Murray could face Nick Kyrgios (seed 20) or
Lucas Pouille (14), both of whom are young, powerful, have games well-suited to
grass, and are former quarter-finalists at Wimbledon. Seeing Murray lose before the quarters (QF)
would not surprise me. However, on
balance, he is still the favourite of this group to come through. Should he fail, Pouille is probably my
quarter-finalist pick.
In the other half of this quarter, the seeds are Tsonga
(12), Querrey (24), Verdasco (31), and Wawrinka (5). All have been to QF or better at Wimbledon in
the past. Tsonga has been the most
consistent performer at Wimbledon of this group and is perhaps the most likely
quarter-finalist.
Last year Querrey knocked off Djokovic here in a run to the
quarters. He could face Nikoloz
Basilashvili in 2R, a player enjoying his best year yet. Verdasco has a tricky opening against former
top-tenner Kevin Anderson – that could go either way – and Wawrinka plays
Daniil Medvedev in a very dangerous opener.
Medvedev has shown a strong proclivity for grass this year, claiming
nine matches in the run-up to Wimbledon.
Wawrinka is second to Nadal in slam match wins this year with 11, but
has not thriven on grass.
Also in this quarter is 18-year old Canadian wildcard Denis
Shapovalov, making his main draw slam debut.
The bookies have him as 37th favourite for the title, however
that is likely optimistic. He opens
against former semi-finalist Jerzy Janowicz and could face Pouille in 2R – not
an easy path.
Although Murray has won all four encounters with Tsonga on
grass, I do not trust Murray’s form this year.
He’s been floundering. And his
draw is not easy.
Tsonga d Murray
Second Quarter
Nadal (4) headlines this quarter and could face Karen
Khachanov (30) in 3R. Khachanov, age 21,
is rapidly climbing the ranks and should strike fear into the hearts of even
the best grass players. I expect Nadal
to be on high alert and to handle the challenge adroitly, although an upset is
not impossible.
Nearby another fascinating third rounder could unfold if Ivo
Karlovic (21) and Gilles Muller (16) meet.
Muller is enjoying a career best year at the ripe age of 34. Karlovic is even older at 38. The 6’11” Karlovic is renowned for his serve
and has been to QF at Wimbledon before.
Either could provide a serious test for Nadal in 4R, although I would
expect the superior talent of Rafa to prevail.
In the lower half of the quarter, Marin Cilic (7) is a clear
favourite over the other three seeds, whom I rate about equally: Nishikori (9), Bautista Agut (18), and Steve
Johnson (26). Cilic has been to the
quarters the last three years, and has been perilously close to the semis with
five-set losses to Djokovic and Federer in two of those years.
A quarterfinal showdown between Nadal and Cilic would be a
juicy treat I hope to enjoy. It is by no
means clear to me who should be favoured of the two. Rafa gets the nod on recent form and
confidence, but Cilic may be the more natural grass court player. A win by Cilic would be viewed as an upset,
but I’m not sure it should be.
Cilic d Nadal
Third Quarter
Roger Federer (3) lands in the third quarter. He draws talented shotmaker Alexandr
Dolgopolov in the first round. It could
be dangerous if Roger is a little off, but I do not expect that. In the second, 18-year old Stefanos Tsitsipas
would likely be little more than cannon fodder, provided he wins his first
match. The third round could pit Roger
against net-rushing Mischa Zverev (27) who took Murray out of Melbourne this
year, or against the unfulfilled talent of Bernard Tomic, a former
quarter-finalist.
Also seeded here are John Isner (23) and Grigor Dimitrov
(13). Dimitrov made the semis in 2014
and has shown flashes of brilliance this year.
A 4R clash with Federer would likely be a tantalizing feast of glittering
backhands, scintillating winners, and impossible gets. Federer should be favoured but Dimitrov has
the goods to make an upset.
Across the quarter Milos Raonic (6) and Alexander Zverev
(10), younger brother of Mischa, look to be the two most formidable
players. Raonic beat Federer last year
in a trip to the final, but has looked rather common this year, even if his
win-loss record of 22-8 slightly betters #1 Murray’s 21-9.
Meanwhile the tennis world waits for AZverev to break
through on the slam stage. After making
the world’s top 10 only weeks after his 20th birthday, he has yet to
impress at a slam, having never been past 3R.
But given his talent, his age, and his recent gains, eventual slam
titles seem highly likely. But is he ready
now? With the still dominant form of the
Big 4 plus Wawrinka, it is super tough for anyone to break through. It’s not impossible AZverev could win this
year’s Wimbledon, but I expect that a break through is more likely next year. I would probably favour Raonic over AZverev
in a potential 4R clash, but not by much.
Nearby is 19-year old American, Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe has a 50-50 match against Robin Haase
to start, with the winner to face AZverev in the second. It would not shock me to see Tiafoe go as far
as the fourth round this year, but on balance, AZverev may be the bigger long
term talent.
Federer d. Raonic
Fourth Quarter
Here lies the deposed #1 Novak Djokovic. A year ago, Novak was flying high and held
all four slam titles, a feat not accomplished in nearly half a century. He was being lauded as perhaps the greatest
of all time. Now he holds no slams and
seems to have lost his best game. I
believe he still wants to fight, and that may yet be his salvation. Coach Agassi is a good fit for him I think, but
I’m not sure if Djokovic is ready to show us his best at this tournament. He may have a better chance come US Open
time.
After a tricky opening against Martin Klizan, Djokovic could
run into Del Potro (29) in the third round.
Should he survive that, 4R could bring up the dazzling shot repertoire
of Gael Monfils (15) or the formidable grass skills of Feliciano Lopez (19),
thrice a quarter-finalist here. I was
actually impressed with the progress Djokovic showed in his QF run at the
French, so I think he could make it through this gauntlet.
The other half of the quarter may be less intimidating. Dominic Thiem (8) shellacked Djokovic in
making semis at the French, but Thiem is much less frightening on grass,
especially if the conditions get fast and he doesn’t have as much time to set
up for his long strokes. Besides, Thiem
could have his hands full in 1R when he plays former quarter-finalist Vasek
Pospisil.
Also here are twice semi-finalist Richard Gasquet (22) and
2010 finalist Tomas Berdych (11). Both
are showing the first signs of age and Berdych especially has dropped the
amazing consistency he demonstrated over the last seven years. It all works in the favour of Djokovic in
what is probably the easiest quarter of the draw.
Djokovic d. Gasquet
Semis
Nadal has been very unlucky to get Cilic in his quarter
since I think Cilic and Federer are the only players capable of beating an ‘on’-Nadal
at this Wimbledon – although upsets can always happen. Cilic and Tsonga both have a good natural set
of grass court tools, but I favour Cilic’s recent form.
Cilic d. Tsonga
The pressure I foresee Federer carrying through the
tournament could be his undoing at any time.
But if he can manage it well, I see no good reason he should not be able
to handle Raonic or AZverev in the quarters.
The Djokovic that Federer faced in the 2014-15 finals is not the
weakened version I expect Roger to face in the semis this year, should Novak
even make it that far.
Federer d. Djokovic
Final
The biggest threats to a Federer title may be a revitalized
Murray or a battle-hardened Nadal.
Although I’m predicting both will lose before the semis, it could easily
turn out differently. I would likely
favour Federer in a Fed-Mur final, but am much less sure about a Fed-Nad
final.
Nadal possesses a peculiar magic at defusing the Federer
game. With the confidence gained from
the obliteration of the field at the French, and a successful run to the
Wimbledon final, he may be able to find the magic one more time for a third cup
at SW19. However the improved Federer
backhand will likely have a definitive say in the outcome. Should we be treated to another classic like
the 2008 final, Federer may enjoy the benefits of lights and a closed roof if
darkness should begin to fall. So I give
a slight edge to Federer over Nadal if that eventuality transpires.
But I am calling for Cilic to be the man across the net on
the final Sunday and I rate his chances quite good for claiming his first
Wimbledon crown. In his previous run to
a slam title at the 2014 US Open he beat Federer in the semis. Last year he held three match points against
Federer in the quarters here, but Federer miraculously dug his way out.
If Cilic can play like he did in the 2014 US Open, he has a
chance. Otherwise, the new Federer is
the favourite.
Federer d. Cilic
Expert Opinion
Expert opinion I could locate at tennis.com,
tennischannel.com, and Sports Illustrated tallies 7 votes for Federer, 1 vote
for Murray, 1 vote for Cilic, and 1 vote for Wawrinka.
Odds
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 27 June 2017
|
1
|
Federer
|
3.25
|
|
2
|
Murray
|
4.33
|
|
3
|
Nadal
|
5.5
|
|
4
|
Djokovic
|
7
|
|
5
|
Raonic
|
15
|
|
6
|
Kyrgios
|
15
|
|
7
|
Cilic
|
15
|
|
8
|
AZverev
|
17
|
|
9
|
Dimitrov
|
21
|
|
10
|
Wawrinka
|
26
|
|
11
|
Thiem
|
29
|
|
12
|
DelPotro
|
29
|
|
13
|
Nishikori
|
41
|
|
14
|
Tsonga
|
51
|
|
15
|
FLopez
|
67
|
|
16
|
Berdych
|
81
|
|
17
|
Sock
|
101
|
|
18
|
Tomic
|
101
|
|
19
|
Muller
|
101
|
|
20
|
Pouille
|
101
|
|
21
|
Gasquet
|
101
|
|
22
|
Isner
|
126
|
|
23
|
Monfils
|
126
|
|
24
|
Kohlschreiber
|
151
|
|
25
|
MZverev
|
151
|
|
26
|
Khachanov
|
151
|
|
27
|
SJohnson
|
151
|
|
28
|
KAnderson
|
151
|
|
29
|
Edmund
|
201
|
|
30
|
Karlovic
|
201
|
|
31
|
Verdasco
|
201
|
|
32
|
Simon
|
201
|
|
33
|
Chung
|
201
|
|
34
|
Querrey
|
201
|
|
35
|
Paire
|
201
|
|
36
|
BautistaAgut
|
201
|
|
37
|
Shapovalov
|
201
|
|
38
|
Janowicz
|
251
|
|
39
|
Evans
|
251
|
|
40
|
Fritz
|
251
|
|
41
|
Coric
|
251
|
|
42
|
DMedvedev
|
251
|
|
43
|
Troicki
|
251
|
|
44
|
Tiafoe
|
251
|
|
45
|
Young
|
251
|
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