US Open Women’s Preview 2017

US Open Women’s Preview 2017

21 Aug 2017

In this non-Serena window it may be tempting to think that ANYone can win a slam.  However, there are only about eight women who are garnering most of the wins and ranking points this year.  Looking at the year-to-date rankings there is an 800 point gap between #10 and #11 in the race points – a difference of about 40%.  That’s huge.  There is also a 500 point gap between #8 and #9.

So it is at the top 8 for the year that I look for the most eligible contenders for the upcoming US Open.  The cast consists of (in YTD race order) Muguruza, Halep, Svitolina, KaPliskova, Wozniacki, VWilliams, Konta, and Ostapenko.  These women have been the most consistent, and often the most flashy, players of 2017 so far.

Notably absent from this list are perennial top-tenners Sharapova, Azarenka, Kvitova, Kerber, Kuznetsova, and ARadwanska.  Aside from Radwanska, all are multiple slam winners.  They are all dangerous players who could rise up out of nowhere and claim this slam title.  But for one reason or another, that does not look likely.  Sharapova may be the biggest threat, but she has not yet won a title of any description in this year’s come-back attempt.

Garbine Muguruza wowed the world with her Wimbledon win.  And she backed it up with the 900-point title in Cincinnati last week.  She can blow hot and cold, but on current form she’s my odds-on favourite.  She may get there without this title, but a win would cement her status as #1 for the year.

Her final victim in Cincy was Simona Halep, who is narrowly #2 in both the YTD race and the official rankings.  Halep won Madrid and was runner-up at the French Open, but is notable this year for three times being within a match of the #1 ranking but failing to close each time.  Regardless, if she keeps up the high level she’s demonstrated this year, she seems bound to get there eventually.  With two slam finals and a US Open semi under her belt, finally winning the big one would not be a surprise.

Elina Svitolina is the second youngest of this group (behind Ostapenko) and leads the tour with 5 titles this year, including three at the 900 level.  It’s not clear to me if she has the goods to win a title on a big stage like the slams, but it is one of the only remaining steps for her.  She’s done a lot of winning this year and could well continue.

Karolina Pliskova, the newly anointed #1, announced herself by winning in Cincinnati last year and knocking out Serena in a trip to the US Open final.  She’s come back to earth a bit more since then but she clearly has the chops to thrive at the USO.  Her powerful, low-percentage game is tailor-made for a hot-streak at a two-week event like the slams.  Can she go one step further in 2017?

Caroline Wozniacki has been in a tour-leading six finals this year and astonishingly has won none of them.  There was a time not too long ago when she was leading her age cohort in titles and ranking points, finishing twice as yearend #1.  Her ranking has climbed from last year’s trough, but she’s not closing the deal in title matches.  However, the US Open is her most successful slam, having made the final twice before.  If there’s anywhere she could get the slam monkey off her back it is here.

And then there’s Venus Williams.  An all time great, there is no doubt she’s a threat for the title at any tournament she enters.  She’s already been in two slam finals this year (after an 8 year hiatus).  Age can slow her down at 37, but never count her out.  Still, she’s a bit of a long-shot pick.

Johanna Konta is not young at age 26, but is backing up her break-out season of last year with another one.  She’s been in two slam semis in these two years and could well make another.  I’m not yet convinced she has enough game to go further, but that doesn’t mean she won’t.

And that brings us to the true sensation of 2017, Jelena Ostapenko.  She has to be still reeling from her Cinderella run to the French title.  If she suddenly puts her head together she clearly has the game to win anywhere she pleases, including this US Open.  But I expect adjusting to the new reality as bona fide slam winner will take the better part of a year.  Maybe we’ll start to see some of her best tennis again next year.

When the US Open begins there will be 8 women who could claim the #1 ranking by its conclusion.  Only Ostapenko of the above group will not be eligible, replaced by Svetlana Kuznetsova who is #10 in the yearly race and had a strong fall swing last year.  Will someone rise to the challenge and claim both the title and the #1 ranking?

25Aug 2017

First Quarter

Karolina Pliskova (seeded #1) appears as the top seed for the first time at a slam.  Her quarter doesn’t look too frightening.  Early year standout Kristina Mladenovic (14) has fallen off the pace since the move from clay after spring.  Aggie Radwanska (10) has never been past the fourth round (4R) here.  Svetlana Kuznetsova (8), the 2004 champ, has not been past 4R at the US Open since 2007.  Kuzzie is in a tight little section with Bellis, Safarova, and Kontaveit (26).  Sveta should never be underestimated but hasn’t looked particularly strong this summer.  It would be interesting to see 18-year old Bellis emerge from this clutch.

However the biggest threat might come from Coco Vandeweghe (20).  She made it all the way to the final in Stanford a month ago, losing to Madison Keys.  Coco has also been knocking it flat at the slams this year, making QF at Wimbledon and semis in Australia.  She edges out ARad and Kuznetsova in my books as the most legitimate threat to Pliskova in this quarter.

KaPliskova (1) d Vandeweghe (20)

Second Quarter

Elina Svitolina (4) is the highest seed in the quarter but she does not have an easy ride.  Her path could include Siniakova, Genie Bouchard, Gavrilova (25) – a finalist in New Haven this week, and Madison Keys (15) – and that’s just to get out of the fourth round. 

Keys has to be considered extremely dangerous.  She’s long been touted as a potential slam-winning future #1.  She absolutely wales on the ball.  She’s been to one SF and one QF at the slams.  But so far has managed only three titles, the biggest a mere 470 pointer.  That one was in Stanford this summer and she followed it up by pushing Muguruza to the brink in Cincinnati – 7-6 in the third.

She’s played Svitolina once before, two years ago, winning when Elina retired down a set and a break in the second.  Given the great form both Svitolina and Keys have displayed this summer it’s a shame they have to meet so early in the tournament.  At peak form for both I’d pick Keys, but given the amazing consistency Svitolina has shown in winning 5 tournaments this year, she is my choice.

The other half of this section houses French Open dynamo Jelena Ostapenko (12), unpredictably dangerous Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (19), hot-and-cold Lesia Tsurenko, and the star-crossed defending champion Angelique Kerber (6).  Kerber has sophomored since her double-slam annus mirabilis in 2016.  And her bad luck continues in facing hard-hitting youngster Naomi Osaka in the first round.  Despite the dreadful year, the bookies have Kerber as their 8^th favourite – respect for what she is still capable of.

I think Ostapenko could continue in a post-slam hangover, but she knows how to aim for the lines with giddy abandon so anything is possible.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tsurenko emerge from this section to face the winner of Svitolina/Keys, however based on my questionable notions of what she COULD do and her talent I pick Ostapenko.

Svitolina (4) d. Ostapenko (12)

Third Quarter

Venus Williams is one of the most dangerous women in the draw not in the top 8 seeds.  She comes in at #9 in the same section as Caroline Wozniacki (5).  It could hardly be worse for Woz who has only taken one set in 7 meetings with Venus.  Wozniacki thrives at the US Open, having five times made the semis or better here.  Also nearby is slam-dangerous Ekaterina Makarova who has been to quarters or better six times at the slams, but is somehow unseeded.  I can imagine a future that has Wozniacki making the final of this US Open, but with Venus looming only a few rounds away, it looks pretty unlikely.

It’s hard to tell if fan-favourite Petra Kvitova (13) is struggling with her comeback or just typical summer-Petra recalcitrance.  She made QF once here, but it would be a surprise to see her repeat that this year.  Her third round opponent could be Caroline Garcia who broke through to the quarters of the French this year.

Ominous at the bottom of the quarter is Garbine Muguruza (3) fresh off wins at Wimbledon and Cincinnati.  The pressure of expectation could undermine Mugu, but when her game is on there seems little to stand in her way.  It doesn’t take too much imagination to see her steam-rolling this section, especially if she faces Venus in the quarter-final, whom she stabbed in the confidence during their Wimbledon final to claim the last 9 games on the trot.

Muguruza (3) d. VWilliams (9)

Fourth Quarter

Welcome to the wild west... the loose cannon corral.  The biggest OMG moment here was seeing #2 seed Simona Halep drawn against Maria Sharapova in the first round.  The match is a plausible final and seems unfair to both women.  But it will be a treat for us fans, and will almost certainly be on Arthur Ashe stadium.  Bracketbuster majora!   

Sharapova has owned Halep 6-0 in the head to head.  But with Sharapova rusty and Halep in good form, this could be the wee-er player’s best shot to get a tick in the W column.  I’ll expect the winner to cruise to the QF without too much difficulty. 

The wildness continues in the opposing section with two more dangerous floaters, Sloane Stephens and Ashleigh Barty, as well as #30 seed Julia Goerges who’s been red hot this summer.  After a year-long-injury hiatus, Stephens has stormed back making semis in both Toronto and Cincinnati.  She’s posted semi and QF results in slams before so we know she can go deep on the biggest stages.  She will be making everyone around her in the draw nervous, including Dominika Cibulkova (11).  Cibulkova peaked at #5 last year but has struggled to put wins together in 2017.  She’s just made the final in New Haven, so may gain some confidence for a US Open run.

Joanna Konta (7) made an inspiring run to the Wimbledon semis.  It’s hard to know if the open draw around her will help or hurt.  I think she should be strong enough to withstand most of the craziness.

Halep (2) d. Konta (7)

Semi-finals

I don’t remember the last time I picked the top four seeds for the semis in a women’s slam, but here we are... I think Karolina Pliskova has too much game for Svitolina, and besides, I’m pretty nervous about picking Svitolina over Keys.

KaPliskova d. Svitolina

I’m also very uncertain about Halep getting past Sharapova in the first round.  I think Halep can have a good run if she wins that match, but I expect Muguruza will be too much to handle.

Muguruza d. Halep

Final

I believe Pliskova has the game and the mentality to win this US Open.  But I also believe that if Muguruza is on she will be too much for even Pliskova.  It would be somewhat surprising if Muguruza can claim back to back slams this year.  It may depend on her mental strength or readiness to do so.

Muguruza d. KaPliskova

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 24 Aug 2017:

1	Muguruza	5.5
2	KaPliskova	8
3	Halep	10
4	Konta	11
5	Svitolina	11
6	Sharapova	15
7	Keys	15
8	Kerber	17
9	VWilliams	17
10	Wozniacki	19
11	Kvitova	21
12	Ostapenko	21
13	Vandeweghe	21
14	Stephens	23
15	ARadwanska	34
16	Kuznetsova	41
17	Kasatkina	51
18	Kontaveit	51
19	Safarova	51
20	Cibulkova	51
21	Mladenovic	51
22	Makarova	67
23	Pavlyuchenkova	67
24	Bouchard	67
25	Barty	81
26	Rybarikova	81
27	Bencic	101
28	Vondrousova	101
29	Garcia	101
30	Vinci	101
31	Osaka	101
32	Bellis	101
33	Konjuh	126
34	Suarez Navarro	126
35	Goerges	126
36	SZhang	126
37	Gavrilova	151
38	Bertens	151
39	Giorgi	151
40	Tsurenko	151
41	Watson	201
42	Lisicki	201
43	Jankovic	251
44	Petkovic	251
45	Day	251
46	Andreescu	251
47	Robson	501