US Open Men’s Preview 2017

US Open Men’s Preview 2017

21 Aug 2017

The top ten is in disarray.  Djokovic, Wawrinka, and Nishikori have pulled the plug on the rest of the tennis year.  Murray and Cilic have been injured and haven’t played since Wimbledon.  Both Raonic and Federer pulled out of the Cincinnati 1000 with injuries, just two weeks before the US Open.  That means the top ten ‘healthy list’ for the USO is only Nadal, Alexander Zverev, and Dominic Thiem.  Talk about a golden opportunity.

Of course Federer, Murray, and Cilic might still play, but there will be questions about their ability to last through two weeks of best-of-5-set matches.  If any of them are healthy they will be definite threats for the title, especially Federer who hasn’t lost a slam match this year.

Nadal has looked distinctly pedestrian since his spectacular run at the French Open.  He’s lost to Nick Kyrgios, 20-something-ranked Gilles Muller, and 18-year old wildcard Denis Shapovalov.  But writing off Nadal at a slam is always inadvisable.  He still has the ability to win any tournament he enters.  He’s second favourite with the bookies, but the recent litany of losses does not augur a title run at USO 2017.

That kicks the door open for the so-called “Next Gen”.  Alexander Zverev is its brightest star having ascended to #6 in the rankings and a top 4 seeding at the US Open, and he’s only age 20.  He’s been ripping up the tour this year with 5 tournament victories, including two Masters 1000 titles.  The last non-Big-4 player to claim two 1000’s in the same year was Nalbandian in 2007 – ten years ago.  “Sascha” Zverev is for real, and a run to his first slam title would no longer be a surprise.  Will he be the first male born in the 1990’s to claim a slam? He was born in 1997, well into the nineties, and that number is evidence of the vacuum of slam winners the Big 4 have left in their wake.

Dominic Thiem, age 23, and Nick Kyrgios, age 22, have become more ‘now-gen’ than ‘next-gen’, but they are still exciting young players who have shown the goods to beat the best and make deep runs at slams.  Thiem seems a little more comfortable on clay than hard.  Kyrgios has a toolbox full of weapons and can beat anyone on any given day, but has struggled to win all the way through to a final, especially at the slams.  But this US Open may be the perfect opportunity to kick it up to the next level.

Denis Shapovalov, only 18, will have to play his way through qualifying.  Now ranked in the 60’s it’s rather disappointing he was not granted a wildcard into the main draw of 128.  If he survives three matches and makes it to the main draw, winning another few matches would be a big accomplishment.  His eye-popping wins over Nadal and Del Potro on a trip to the semis in the Canada 1000 mean he cannot be counted out of anything.  But short of the astonishing breakthroughs of Sampras, Becker, and Wilander, a title run by someone so young and inexperienced would be totally unexpected. (And Chang and Borg, to be fair).

There are a few other sharks patrolling the slam seas who could take a bite out of this US Open, like Grigor Dimitrov, Gael Monfils, or maybe even the eternal bridesmaid Tomas Berdych.  And then there are former champs Cilic and Del Potro, who might be a little banged up but are still dangerous.  At the end of the day however, a healthy Federer is my pick for the title.  And if he’s not healthy I’d deem AZverev next most likely to win.

25 Aug 2017

First Quarter

Newly re-minted #1 Rafael Nadal (seeded 1) heads the draw.  His span between first and last week at #1 (472 weeks) is the longest in ATP history, (Connors 466, Federer 457).  Reaching #1 means Nadal has been playing well this year.  He’s especially strong in the best of 5 set format used at the slams.  His draw looks manageable until the fourth round where he’s slated to meet Tomas Berdych (15).  Berdych could push Nadal but over best-of-five I expect Rafa to prevail.

The lower part of this section has David Goffin (9), Gael Monfils (18), and Grigor Dimitrov (7).  Monfils made semis here last year but has looked less impressive this year.  Dimitrov claimed the biggest title of his career last week, the 1000 in Cincinnati and put his name on the shortlist of serious contenders.  He nearly took out Nadal in five sets at the Aus Open.  I think he goes one better this time.

Dimitrov (7) d. Nadal (1)

Second Quarter

The big news of this draw is that Roger Federer (3) is in the same half as Nadal.  That means a Roger-Rafa final can’t happen.  They are the two overwhelming favourites of the bookies so it’s a shame they would meet sooner, especially since the withdrawal of Andy Murray on Saturday.  Murray had been seeded #2.  Because the draw had already been made before Murray’s withdrawal, it means the top two remaining players are stuck in the same half.  The rules are that the number 5 seed, Marin Cilic, moves into Murray’s spot.

Of the top four seeds, Federer may have the most difficult road with rising teen Tiafoe in the first round, FLopez (31) or Verdasco in the third, and then a possible blockbuster against Nick Kyrgios (14) in the fourth.  Kyrgios has hit some hot form this summer beating Nadal in straights in a run to the Cincy final.  An upset is definitely possible, but if Federer is healthy he should prevail.  After that Fed could get Juan Martin del Potro (24).

Del Potro won here in 2009 but has had numerous injuries and surgeries since.  He’s finally got a decent draw.  Although Bautista-Agut (11) and Mannarino (30) are not easy outs, the next highest seed in the section Dominic Thiem (6) is a pedestrian 3-3 on North American hard courts this summer.  It’s a window that could put Delpo in the quarters.

Federer (3) d. Del Potro (24)

Third Quarter

Sam Querrey (17) is the lucky inheritor of Cilic’s plum spot.  I think it could turn into a quarter final slot for him if he can get by Gilles Simon in round one, 21-year old Karen Khachanov (25) in the third, and Mischa Zverev (23) or John Isner (10) in the fourth.

Across the section is fast-rising 20-year old sensation Alexander Zverev (4).  It’s not the easiest of roads for Zverev, with returning-to-form Kevin Anderson (28), Rafa’s conqueror at Wimbledon Gilles Muller (19), and Jack Sock (13) lying in wait.  But I’m guessing Sasha will be up for the task.

AZverev d. Querrey (17)

Fourth Quarter

With Murray out and Cilic (5) in questionable form, this section is ripe for surprises.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) is the next highest seed.  He hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon, crashing out of his first matches in Montreal and Cincy.  It was a little surprising since he won three tournaments near the beginning of the year.  He could have his hands full in the second round if he runs into giant-slaying Denis Shapovalov, the 18-year old Canadian prodigy who swept to the semis in Montreal.  Maybe it’s patriotism, but I’m willing to give the thinnest of edges in that possible match-up to Shapovalov.

Next up for Denis could be Robin Haase (32) who’s had a very fine summer, or Steve Johnson.  After that could come one of the two Spaniards Albert Ramos Vinolas (20) or Pablo Carreno Busta (12), both of whom are very serious competition.  That’s a sketch of one quarterfinal.  Shapovalov could very well lose in his first round against Daniil Medvedev, higher ranked by 16 spots, with no shame.  Maybe I am swept up in the rhetoric of the pundits, but I can actually envision a run to the quarters for Denis. 

In Cilic’s section Lucas Pouille (16), David Ferrer (21), and Diego Shwartzman (29) are the seeds.  Pouille looked strong last year making the quarters and upsetting Nadal but has been mediocre of late.  Ferrer has been playing some fine tennis this summer and could really push Cilic for the quarterfinal spot.  With Cilic in questionable form, and much as I’d like to imagine the universe for Shapovalov, even I recognize that the odds of making the quarters or semis are distinctly against him.  However I persist in my foolishness.

Cilic (5) d. Shapovalov

Semi-finals

Federer gave a pretty decisive straight sets answer at Wimbledon to questions about Dimitrov pretending to his throne.    The switch to hard courts could favour Dimitrov, so called ‘Baby Fed’, but I still favour the original.

Federer d. Dimitrov

Whomever should emerge from the bottom quarter will likely be no match for an in-form AZverev.  A possible exception would be a healthy Cilic.  Marin hasn’t played since his hobbling loss in the Wimbledon final, so I don’t expect him to be at full steam.

AZverev d. Cilic

Final

Will it be slam #20 for Federer or #1 for Sasha Zverev?  Or maybe #16 for Nadal?  The possibilities are endless.  Federer looked to be dominated in the Canadian final against Zverev, even before signs of his injury became really apparent.  A slam final will be a penetrating test of Zverev’s mettle.  Can Federer finish a year undefeated in slam matches?

Federer d. AZverev

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 24 Aug 2017:

1	Federer	2.37
2	Nadal	3.5
3	Murray	7.5
4	AZverev	8
5	Cilic	15
6	Kyrgios	15
7	Del Potro	15
8	Dimitrov	17
9	Thiem	21
10	Isner	41
11	Tsonga	67
12	Berdych	67
13	Monfils	81
14	Querrey	101
15	Muller	101
16	Sock	101
17	Bautista-Agut	101
18	KAnderson	101
19	Ferrer	101
20	Pouille	101
21	Goffin	101
22	Gasquet	101
23	Shapovalov	101
24	SJohnson	151
25	FLopez	201
26	Edmund	201
27	Simon	201
28	Karlovic	201
29	Khachanov	251
30	Fognini	251
31	Tiafoe	251
32	Coric	251
33	Evans	251
34	Mannarino	251
35	Paire	251
36	Tomic	301
37	Dolgopolov	301
38	Cuevas	301
39	Kohlschreiber	301
40	MZverev	301
41	Carreno-Busta	301
42	Ramos-Vinolas	401
43	Rublev	501