2018 Australian Open Men Predictions

2018 Australian Open Men Predictions

11 January 2018

Can players in their 20’s challenge the old guard of tennis who are all in their 30’s?

First Quarter

Rafael Nadal, the top seed, pulled out of his warm-up tournament but did make a showing at an exhibition this week.  He may not be at 100% healthwise, but regardless, if he plays he will be a threat for the title.  If he can get through his first two or three matches, he seems to get better as a tournament progresses.  His first few rounds look totally manageable.  Even in the quarters he is likely to face only Cilic (6) or Carreno Busta (10). 

Cilic hasn’t looked too strong since pulling up lame against Federer in the Wimbledon final.  But he is one of two men outside of the Big 5 to have won a slam. Carreno Busta is youngish at 26 years old, but doesn’t seem to have the genius to really push the top players.  Unless Nadal is truly unfit to play, I can’t see him losing before the semis.  It looks like an easy draw for him.

Nadal d. Cilic

Second Quarter

Grigor Dimitrov (3) is the highest seed in this quarter.  After dazzling last year with a 1000 and a 1500 victory, is he ready for a 2000 at a slam?  His all court game matches up with the best, but he’s only ever been to the semis of a slam twice before.  Does he have the mental grit to win the whole enchilada?  He could be feeling pressure.  20-year old Andrey Rublev is rising rapidly and could provide a stern test in the third round for Dimitrov.

The last man Dimitrov lost to was Nick Kyrgios, and that was last week.  Kyrgios is seeded 17 and could face Dimitrov in the fourth round.  Dimitrov won their two previous meetings, so anything can happen.  Kyrgios has a natural, easy-flowing game, anchored by a well-disguised and monster serve.  He’s pretty much on even terms with the Big 3 of Fed-Nad-Djo in head to head meetings.  His eventual ascent to the top would seem obvious… except that he also seems like a head-case who can’t concentrate through the grind of the tour or even of a whole tournament.  Playing best 3 of 5 for seven matches might be too big an ask of Nick.  But he should be good for some big scalps along the way.

The lower half of this quarter is less star-laden and features Jack Sock (8), Kevin Anderson( 11), and Lucas Pouille (18).  Whoever makes it to the quarter-final will likely have their hands full.  Also in this quarter is an interesting first round battle of teenagers between Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Kyrgios d. KAnderson

Third Quarter

Alex Zverev has been hailed as the next big thing and his rank of #4 at age 20 is certainly impressive… as were his two 1000 trophies last year.  But so far he’s calved at the slams, never emerging from the fourth round.  But this much talent has got to be rewarded sometime.  It’s hard to know where his head is.  He might be putting too much pressure on himself at the slams, or maybe he doesn’t thrive in the best 3 of 5 set format.  The third round could be revealing against either his older brother – always an interesting psychological test – or 21-year old Hyeon Chung who is also rapidly climbing the ranks.

And then of course there’s the #14 seed.  14 is not usually a number that would strike fear in the heart of a top player, but this year, that seed number is attached to six-time former champion, Novak Djokovic.  Novak has been out since Wimbledon last year with an elbow injury.  Even if that is healed, I have doubts about his head space.  He seems to have lost belief and/or desire.  He still has a top of the class skill set, but does he have the will to harness it… to push himself as far as pain, concentration, and fear require, to bring out his best game?  I have my doubts.  I suspect that when the going gets tough he’ll fold.  Will AZverev be the one to push him there?

The other half of this quarter features Stan Wawrinka, who like Djokovic, hasn’t played since Wimbledon.  Stan pulled out of his pre-tournament commitments so I have serious questions about his fitness to play, let alone win.  I don’t expect him to go far with no match toughness.

World #5 Dominic Thiem, age 24, deserves some respect, although he is best perhaps on clay.  Rather, I expect the steady hand of Roberto Bautista-Agut (20) to move through to the quarter-final. 

AZverev d. Bautista-Agut

Fourth Quarter

David Goffin was nothing short of brilliant in taking out Nadal and Federer at the Tour Finals and reaching #7 in the rankings.  He is one of my top picks for the title at this Australian.  Unfortunately, he could run into another of my top picks, Juan Martin Del Potro (12), in the fourth round.  A healthy Delpo is dangerous.  He is responsible for taking Federer out of last year’s US Open, and he’s looked clinical so far this week in Auckland.  But as good as Delpo is, I give the edge to the speed and tenacity of Goffin.

Reading the pundits, pretty much every one’s pre-tournament favourite is Federer.  There is a lot to like.  Not only is he the defending champion, he’s one of the few top men who doesn’t seem to have any health concerns.  While that’s good news, at his age (36) there’s no telling when a back will spasm or some random injury will pop up.  He shouldn’t encounter too much resistance from Milos Raonic (22).  Raonic is very very good, but he’s returning from injury and doesn’t seem to be at full steam yet.

Del Potro and Goffin are the two most recent men to beat Federer.  Fortunately for Federer they would play each other first.  Regardless, an in-form Federer will be tough to beat.  I pick him for the tournament.  An interesting first-rounder in this section will pit Tomas Berdych (19) against 18-year old Alex De Minaur.  Berdych has been to the quarters or better six times at the Aus Open, but De Minaur has been on fire in the last two weeks.

Federer d. Goffin

Semifinals

Nadal knows this gig and has been here before.  He should eat Kyrgios for lunch.

Nadal d. Kyrgios

The third last man to beat Federer was AZverev.  Great chance for Fed to get revenge.

Federer d. AZverev

Final

It would be great if they staged another five-set classic like last year.  But I don’t expect it.  Interestingly, Nadal or Andy Murray have lost the last eight Aus Open finals.

Federer d. Nadal

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 11 Jan 2018

1	Federer	2.75
2	Nadal	5.5
3	Djokovic	6
4	AZverev	10
5	Dimitrov	10
6	DelPotro	15
7	Kyrgios	15
8	Goffin	19
9	Wawrinka	26
10	Thiem	26
11	Raonic	34
12	Cilic	34
13	Shapovalov	67
14	Sock	67
15	KAnderson	67
16	Tsonga	81
17	Rublev	81
18	Berdych	81
19	Monfils	81
20	Pouille	101
21	RBA	101
22	Gasquet	126
23	Querrey	126
24	DeMinaur	151
25	Tsitsipas	151
26	CarrenoBusta	151
27	Isner	151
28	Simon	151
29	Ferrer	201
30	Chung	201
31	Coric	201
32	Edmund	201