Skip to main content

2018 Australian Open Men Predictions

2018 Australian Open Men Predictions
11 January 2018

Can players in their 20’s challenge the old guard of tennis who are all in their 30’s?

First Quarter
Rafael Nadal, the top seed, pulled out of his warm-up tournament but did make a showing at an exhibition this week.  He may not be at 100% healthwise, but regardless, if he plays he will be a threat for the title.  If he can get through his first two or three matches, he seems to get better as a tournament progresses.  His first few rounds look totally manageable.  Even in the quarters he is likely to face only Cilic (6) or Carreno Busta (10). 

Cilic hasn’t looked too strong since pulling up lame against Federer in the Wimbledon final.  But he is one of two men outside of the Big 5 to have won a slam. Carreno Busta is youngish at 26 years old, but doesn’t seem to have the genius to really push the top players.  Unless Nadal is truly unfit to play, I can’t see him losing before the semis.  It looks like an easy draw for him.
Nadal d. Cilic

Second Quarter
Grigor Dimitrov (3) is the highest seed in this quarter.  After dazzling last year with a 1000 and a 1500 victory, is he ready for a 2000 at a slam?  His all court game matches up with the best, but he’s only ever been to the semis of a slam twice before.  Does he have the mental grit to win the whole enchilada?  He could be feeling pressure.  20-year old Andrey Rublev is rising rapidly and could provide a stern test in the third round for Dimitrov.

The last man Dimitrov lost to was Nick Kyrgios, and that was last week.  Kyrgios is seeded 17 and could face Dimitrov in the fourth round.  Dimitrov won their two previous meetings, so anything can happen.  Kyrgios has a natural, easy-flowing game, anchored by a well-disguised and monster serve.  He’s pretty much on even terms with the Big 3 of Fed-Nad-Djo in head to head meetings.  His eventual ascent to the top would seem obvious… except that he also seems like a head-case who can’t concentrate through the grind of the tour or even of a whole tournament.  Playing best 3 of 5 for seven matches might be too big an ask of Nick.  But he should be good for some big scalps along the way.

The lower half of this quarter is less star-laden and features Jack Sock (8), Kevin Anderson( 11), and Lucas Pouille (18).  Whoever makes it to the quarter-final will likely have their hands full.  Also in this quarter is an interesting first round battle of teenagers between Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Kyrgios d. KAnderson

Third Quarter
Alex Zverev has been hailed as the next big thing and his rank of #4 at age 20 is certainly impressive… as were his two 1000 trophies last year.  But so far he’s calved at the slams, never emerging from the fourth round.  But this much talent has got to be rewarded sometime.  It’s hard to know where his head is.  He might be putting too much pressure on himself at the slams, or maybe he doesn’t thrive in the best 3 of 5 set format.  The third round could be revealing against either his older brother – always an interesting psychological test – or 21-year old Hyeon Chung who is also rapidly climbing the ranks.

And then of course there’s the #14 seed.  14 is not usually a number that would strike fear in the heart of a top player, but this year, that seed number is attached to six-time former champion, Novak Djokovic.  Novak has been out since Wimbledon last year with an elbow injury.  Even if that is healed, I have doubts about his head space.  He seems to have lost belief and/or desire.  He still has a top of the class skill set, but does he have the will to harness it… to push himself as far as pain, concentration, and fear require, to bring out his best game?  I have my doubts.  I suspect that when the going gets tough he’ll fold.  Will AZverev be the one to push him there?

The other half of this quarter features Stan Wawrinka, who like Djokovic, hasn’t played since Wimbledon.  Stan pulled out of his pre-tournament commitments so I have serious questions about his fitness to play, let alone win.  I don’t expect him to go far with no match toughness.

World #5 Dominic Thiem, age 24, deserves some respect, although he is best perhaps on clay.  Rather, I expect the steady hand of Roberto Bautista-Agut (20) to move through to the quarter-final. 
AZverev d. Bautista-Agut

Fourth Quarter
David Goffin was nothing short of brilliant in taking out Nadal and Federer at the Tour Finals and reaching #7 in the rankings.  He is one of my top picks for the title at this Australian.  Unfortunately, he could run into another of my top picks, Juan Martin Del Potro (12), in the fourth round.  A healthy Delpo is dangerous.  He is responsible for taking Federer out of last year’s US Open, and he’s looked clinical so far this week in Auckland.  But as good as Delpo is, I give the edge to the speed and tenacity of Goffin.

Reading the pundits, pretty much every one’s pre-tournament favourite is Federer.  There is a lot to like.  Not only is he the defending champion, he’s one of the few top men who doesn’t seem to have any health concerns.  While that’s good news, at his age (36) there’s no telling when a back will spasm or some random injury will pop up.  He shouldn’t encounter too much resistance from Milos Raonic (22).  Raonic is very very good, but he’s returning from injury and doesn’t seem to be at full steam yet.

Del Potro and Goffin are the two most recent men to beat Federer.  Fortunately for Federer they would play each other first.  Regardless, an in-form Federer will be tough to beat.  I pick him for the tournament.  An interesting first-rounder in this section will pit Tomas Berdych (19) against 18-year old Alex De Minaur.  Berdych has been to the quarters or better six times at the Aus Open, but De Minaur has been on fire in the last two weeks.
Federer d. Goffin

Semifinals
Nadal knows this gig and has been here before.  He should eat Kyrgios for lunch.
Nadal d. Kyrgios

The third last man to beat Federer was AZverev.  Great chance for Fed to get revenge.
Federer d. AZverev

Final
It would be great if they staged another five-set classic like last year.  But I don’t expect it.  Interestingly, Nadal or Andy Murray have lost the last eight Aus Open finals.
Federer d. Nadal

Bookies
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 11 Jan 2018
1
Federer
2.75
2
Nadal
5.5
3
Djokovic
6
4
AZverev
10
5
Dimitrov
10
6
DelPotro
15
7
Kyrgios
15
8
Goffin
19
9
Wawrinka
26
10
Thiem
26
11
Raonic
34
12
Cilic
34
13
Shapovalov
67
14
Sock
67
15
KAnderson
67
16
Tsonga
81
17
Rublev
81
18
Berdych
81
19
Monfils
81
20
Pouille
101
21
RBA
101
22
Gasquet
126
23
Querrey
126
24
DeMinaur
151
25
Tsitsipas
151
26
CarrenoBusta
151
27
Isner
151
28
Simon
151
29
Ferrer
201
30
Chung
201
31
Coric
201
32
Edmund
201


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Men’s Tennis 2024 Yearend and 2025 Predictions

2 January 2025   The Big Three is dead!  Long Live the Big Three!  For the first time in 22 years, none of Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic are in the yearend top three.  Instead we have a new set – Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev.  Now it would certainly be debatable if Zverev has the significance of the other two. Afterall, he still has not won a slam and he’s half a generation older than his younger counterparts.  At age 27 he should be mid-arc in career accomplishments – but in some metrics he’s just starting out.  However, his superlative play over the year landed him at #2 and who are we to argue with the algorithm? One of the biggest clouds hanging over the coming year is the fate of Jannik Sinner.  By all accounts he is the top dog, and primed to have another banner year, but whether or not he will get to play depends on what happens with WADA (the World Anti-Doping Agency).  Anyone can see he’s essentially innocent – I mean, a massage...

Wimbledon Women 2024

The divas have gathered, the grass is fresh, the blades are out, the Venus Rosewater Dish beckons. Is there a favourite?  There are only three former champions in the draw, and while they may be among the top picks it’s dangerous to count on any of them: Kerber (past her prime), Rybakina (constantly sick), and Vondrousova (chronically unreliable).  So who will it be lifting the plate in two weeks’ time?   First Quarter Iga Swiatek (1) is the top seed and has pretty much nailed down this slot across the board for the last two and a half years.   But grass is her least-accomplished surface.   She pulled out of her warm-up tournament citing emotional recuperation after her fifth slam crown and third consecutive at Roland Garros.   But there is cause for hope among the Swiatek-azzi. She made the quarters last year in a game effort against a surging Svitolina.   Her strokes should hold up well on grass, although I think she loses some of the movement...

The Case for Rod Laver as GOAT - 25 Dec 2010

The Case for Rod Laver Two grand slams.   When one considers the near impossibility of winning a calendar year grand slam in this day and age, the thought of one player winning two boggles the mind.   It’s difficult enough to win the career slam – only 7 men have ever done it and only 4 in the Open era.   Winning a non-calendar slam is even more difficult and many great players have won three in a row and fallen just short:   like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Pete Sampras. So Rod Laver should be an open and shut case for the greatest of all time.   But it’s not that simple.   His first grand slam is really negligible and doesn’t count.   It was an amateur slam won in an era when the best players were professionals.   Especially in the 1960’s the pros were gaining more and more credibility.   The sheer number of pros was increasing as more and more tournaments began to be established for pro players.   Laver was by no means considered...