2018 Australian Open Women Predictions

2018 Australian Open Women Predictions

11 January 2018

With Serena not yet returned, is there a favourite?

First Quarter

Top-seeded Simona Halep has a date with Destanee Aiava in the first round.  Aiava is a dangerous teen and Halep has not been immune to first round exits at slams, but I expect her to pull this one off.  Halep started the year strongly with a title in Shenzhen.  I also like the way she seized the #1 ranking at the end of last year. She’s driven and consistent, and is the only player to finish in the computer top 10 each of the last four years.  But she’s not a big-hitter and current wisdom on the WTA tour is that big-hitters win slams and defensive players do not.  However that logic doesn’t hold up when we consider that defensive-minded Kerber won two slams in 2016.  So I like Halep’s chances at this Aus Open.

Halep could run into two big-hitting Czechs in her quarter, Petra Kvitova (27) and Karolina Pliskova (6).  Kvitova has won two Wimbledon’s and Pliskova has been #1.  Either could win this title, and they are certainly capable of taking out Halep.  But Halep does sport a combined 8-2 record over these two, and given her current form, I expect her to move on.

Surprisingly, the bookies made Halep and Pliskova co-favourites for the title just before the draw was released.  Pliskova hits heavy clean strokes and dominates when she is on.  But her margin for error is not great and she is not particularly mobile.  Still, if she gets hot, anything is possible.

Also in this quarter is 21-year old Ashleigh Barty, seeded (18), who has been on fire this year. She has a potentially tough first-rounder against rising teen Aryna Sabalenka, but if she can get through that, a title run is not unthinkable for Barty… although it probably isn’t likely.

This quarter is laden with talent, and it would be remiss to ignore Johanna Konta (9).  In her only two previous appearances, Konta made QF and SF so she must be considered a legitimate threat for the title.  I haven’t been fond of her results in the last 6 months but her draw is fairly soft until the fourth round.  I’ll take Pliskova over Konta in the fourth and Halep over Barty in the other fourth rounder.

Halep d KaPliskova

Second Quarter

The woman most people deemed last year’s best player, Garbine Muguruza, is seeded #3.  She made the quarter-finals last year.  This year she’s pulled out of two tournaments with injury in the last two weeks.  It’s tough to know if she’s just saving herself for the slam, or if the injuries are going to hinder her.  Maybe it’s a little of both.  Muguruza is the heir apparent to Serena in many pundits’ eyes it seems.  She’s got a big clean game with good margin and looks unbeatable when she’s on.  But she doesn’t have Serena’s uncanny ability to always be on and concentrate her way through bad patches.  And Muguruza does have some bad patches.  So what will we get this time? Probably a bit of both.

Her section is not easy.  The third round could feature Agnieszka Radwanska, former #2 and Wimbledon finalist, but now seeded #26.  After that could come Angelique Kerber (21) or Maria Sharapova.

Kerber won this title two years ago, and the US Open to go along with it.  Last year was a disaster for her as she succumbed to the burden of being #1.  She ended at #21 so the pressure is officially off.  And she’s looked to be in better form this year, making the semis in Sydney this week.  But I’m not yet convinced.  I think she could have a deepish run here, but I won’t expect much more.

Sharapova is less easy for me to decipher.  With five slams titles she’s the second-most accomplished player in the draw behind Venus Williams.  But her comeback from a doping violation and injury has been frustratingly slow.  On any given day, she could beat anybody (except maybe Serena).  But she also seems capable of losing to anyone.  She’s had a nice break.  If she can play her way through some easy matches into a good head space, she capable of going very very deep, even to the title.  But she could face nemesis Sevastova (14) in the second round, Kerber in the third, and Muguruza in the fourth.  It is not an easy road.

And that’s just half of this incredible quarter.  The other half is a little less daunting with Madison Keys (17) and Caroline Garcia (8) has the most likely winners to my mind.  Keys has been a shell of herself since being runner-up at the US Open – she’s lost both matches since – but I don’t think she’s as far gone as US Open champ Sloane Stephens.  Keys has done well in Australia before and her beautiful, powerful strokes translate well anywhere.  Garcia showed she can beat anyone last fall with two scintillating high level titles, but there are injury concerns, and of course how she’s handling the new pressure of being a top ten player.

Muguruza d. Keys

Third Quarter

Venus Williams won more slam matches last year than any other woman, making two finals and a semi.  But she didn’t close the deal, and so her detractors persist.  She has a very tough road that could include Bencic, Larsson, Makarova, and Goerges in her first four rounds.  Belinda Bencic is returning to the tour after most of the year away.  She made the top ten as a teenager on the back of a wins over Serena and Halep, while taking a 900 title in Canada.  She’ll be the dark horse pick of more than one fantasy tennis player. Venus vs Bencic is a first round block buster.

Ekaterina Makarova (31) seems particularly suited to the Aus Open and to beating Williamses there.  She’s claimed victory over both Serena and Venus in Melbourne.  She’s also made at least the round of 16 for the last seven years.  Venus would be a stern test in the third round, and Goerges as well in the fourth.

Julia Goerges (12) has been a journey-woman player, now aged 29 and ranked at a career high.  She’s also on a 14-match win streak encompassing three straight tournament victories.  Perhaps the pressure of a slam will slow her down, but there seems little else anyone can do.  I’m predicting Goerges over Venus for the quarter-final slot.

Sloane Stephens is in the lower half of this quarter and has lost seven straight matches since winning the US Open. I’m hoping she wins at least one here.  Also in this section are Daria Kasatkina (22) and Elina Svitolina (4).  Kasatkina is a promising young player who probably won’t win the title – probably.  Svitolina is being picked by some as the favourite. She’s won more tournaments than anyone else on tour in the last year and has a shot to become #1 if she takes the title.  She can beat anyone, including Serena, but has not thriven at the slams, where she’s only been as far as the QF twice – both at the French on clay.  She’s got a decent shot of bettering that here.

Svitolina d. Goerges

Fourth Quarter

Jelena Ostapenko (7), the sensation of the French Open, is also suffering a post-slam hangover, although hers does not seem as deep as Stephens’.  Close to Ostapenko in the draw are 2014 finalist, Dominika Cibulkova (24), and another slam star from last year, Coco Vandeweghe (10), who made two semis and a quarter at last year’s slams.  Cibulkova seems to have retrenched after largely slumping last year (after winning the Tour Finals in 2016).  Vandeweghe could well continue her winning swing-for-the-fences ways of last year, but I expect a tough tussle with Cibulkova in the third round.

Anchoring the draw in the #2 spot is Caroline Wozniacki, who has a chance to return to #1 if she wins the tournament.  More important to Caroline perhaps would be finally claiming a slam title.  Wozniacki looked strong at the end of last year when she won two finals after previously losing 6 straight finals last year.  She played brilliantly in capturing the Tour Finals, the biggest title of her career.  But she looked up to her old ways when she lost the final of Auckland to Goerges last week.  Wozniacki could go very deep in this tournament, but I question her ability to close the deal.

Wozniacki d. Cibulkova

Semis

Wozniacki is very tough in semi-finals, but I think Svitolina’s time has come.

Svitolina d. Wozniacki

Muguruza owns the head to head 3-1, including a 61 60 shellacking in Cincinnati last year.  But I think we are seeing a new Halep.

Halep d. Muguruza

Final

Realistically… predicting a final in the WTA these days is like throwing darts at herd of running pigs.  I would be shocked if I got this right.

Halep d. Svitolina

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 11 Jan 2018

1	KaPliskova	8
2	Halep	8
3	Muguruza	8.5
4	Svitolina	9
5	Kerber	11
6	Sharapova	12
7	Wozniacki	13
8	Kvitova	17
9	Konta	19
10	Keys	19
11	Vandeweghe	21
12	Goerges	21
13	VWilliams	26
14	Ostapenko	26
15	Bencic	26
16	Garcia	29
17	Barty	29
18	Stephens	34
19	Cibulkova	34
20	ARadwanska	41
21	Sabalenka	51
22	Kanepi	51
23	Sasnovich	51
24	Sevastova	67
25	Kasatkina	67
26	Safarova	67
27	Kontaveit	67
28	Osaka	81
29	Rybarikova	81
30	Makarova	81
31	Pavlyuchenkova	81
32	Gavrilova	81
33	Siniakova	81