French Women 2018

French Women 2018

Even though I bitched and moaned about picking the difficult fourth quarter in the men’s draw, it was a cakewalk compared to the entire women’s bracket… which is just an enormous helping of cruel and unusual punishment.  Nevertheless I torture myself with the brackets at tennisdrawchallenge.com  Where to start?  How about the ridiculous and murderous second quarter…

That second quarter alone has four former champions in it. Four! And two of them meet in the first round, Muguruza and Kuznetsova.  Then of course there’s the very scary and very screamy Sharapova, who’s set to run into the sixth seed, last year’s semi-finalist, Karolina Pliskova in the third round.  You gotta feel sorry for Pliskova.  She could get former finalist, Safarova in round two, Sharapova in round three, and if she survives all of that, the unbelievably great and terrifying Serena Williams in round four.  And THEN, if the seeds hold, 2016 champ, Muguruza in the quarters.

And just to make this quarter really interesting let’s throw in a sprinkling of former-finalist Stosur, the young and rising Ashleigh Barty, returning Belinda Bencic, and maybe a really juicy first rounder like Vandeweghe, this year’s Stuttgart finalist against last year’s Stuttgart winner, Siegemund.  And even more former-top-tenners like Cibulkova and Goerges (meeting in the first round of course)… and mix in a little of the always dangerous Pavlyu-kerplunk-ova??

It’s a bracket disaster.  My bracket is broken.  My brain is broken!

Serena has a tough opener against Pliskova’s twin sister, Krystina.  Then she’s got Barty and could face Goerges or Cibulkova after that.  But it gets easier for the fourth when she could play Sharapova whom she hasn’t lost to for 14 years… should be an easy match against the two-time champ… easy… yeah… um….
If Serena even still remembers how to play…
god, what a mess…

So I picked Muguruza over Sharapova (cue California airhead lilt and vacant blinking)….  But really, I have no idea what will happen in this quarter.  Four of the women here have better than 20:1 odds of winning according to the bookies.  So probably none of them will make the semis and it will be a qualifier or a wildcard.  Jessika Ponchet all the way!

And now for the easy part.  After a quick look I see that the rest of the bracket is like a series of bad life choices leading to divorce and financial ruin, if I choose well… and probably prison if I don’t.

Halep is the #1 seed and in the top quarter.  In the third round she could get the winner of, oh wow (yawn), another first round match between two former top tenners, this time Mladenovic and Petkovic.  After that she could face the suddenly solid Gavrilova, or Elise Mertens, who’s come out of nowhere to win three tournaments this year.

In the other half, OF THE TOP QUARTER, we get former #1 Kerber, current #7 Garcia, and former semi-finalist Bertens, who, naturally, has a tough opener against young Sabalenka.  Naturally.  For the quarter I take Halep over Bertens.

Moving on to what surely must be an easier quarter, the third, I see it starts with last year’s champ, Ostapenko to face in the second round possibly, former #1 Azarenka… (inward groan). Also here are recent top tenner Konta and Venus Williams… who are in the other half of the top half of this quarter… did I just write that…

Meanwhile in the top half of the bottom half of this quarter (!) US Open finalist Keys and Indian Wells champ Osaka could meet in the third round. The winner could face Svitolina.  Svitolina just claimed a second consecutive Rome title and is co-ranked with Halep as 6:1 favourites for the French.  It’s a crap shoot, so I’ll go with the favourites and take Svito over Ostapenko for the semi.

In the fourth quarter lies Petra Kvitova who was a pre-tournament favourite of mine.  She’s got a tricky opener against Cepede-Royg who made fourth round last year.  After that could come Babos who won Taipei and made the final of Monterrey.  The third round could bring up red-hot Kontaveit who made the semis of both Rome and Stuttgart in preparation for Paris.

So Kvitova has no easy matches but at this stage of my bracket hell, I’m not surprised.  Par for the course then that she could get US Open champ Stephens in the fourth round.

Sakkari and Suarez Navarro have both had some real highlights this clay season and they could meet in the second round.  The winner would likely face Kasatkina, finalist at Indian Wells and Dubai. 

Aus Open champ and number two seed Wozniacki opens against Collins who’s come out of nowhere this year to register in the top 50.  If Woz gets through that she could have her hands full against two-time former semi-finalist Bacsinszky in her second match.  Overall I think Kasatkina is most likely to face Kvitova for a spot in the semis.

In the semis I’m now stuck with Halep and Muguruza. I’ll take Halep, but really, Serena, Sharapova, Bertens, or KaPliskova are perfectly reasonable choices for the top half.  In the other semi I’ve narrowed it down to Svitolina or Kvitova.  Kvitova is on an eleven-match clay win streak, but Svitolina seems the more proven player on the terre battue.  But for big match experience I’ll take Kvitova.

That sets up a fantasy final (and it would be a miracle if it actually unfolded) between Kvitova and Halep.  Much as I would love to see Halep finally hoist a slam cup, Petra looks too strong to me. Kvitova for the crown.

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 25 May 2018

1	Halep	7
2	Svitolina	7
3	Sharapova	12
4	SWilliams	13
5	Kvitova	15
6	Muguruza	15
7	Ostapenko	15
8	KaPliskova	21
9	Kasatkina	21
10	Bertens	26
11	Wozniacki	26
12	Garcia	29
13	Kerber	29
14	Konta	41
15	Kontaveit	41
16	Osaka	41
17	Goerges	41
18	Azarenka	51
19	Mertens	51
20	VWilliams	51
21	Stephens	51
22	Keys	67
23	Vandeweghe	67
24	Barty	67
25	Cibulkova	67
26	Sevastova	81
27	Suarez Navarro	81
28	Pavlyuchenkova	81
29	Safarova	101
30	Mladenovic	101
31	Vondrousova	101
32	Kuznetsova	101
33	Siegemund	101
34	Bacsinszky	101
35	Gavrilova	101
36	Siniakova	126
37	Kanepi	151
38	Buzarnescu	151
39	KrPliskova	151
40	Sabalenka	151
41	Sakkari	151
42	Bencic	151
43	Konjuh	151
44	Collins	151