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Wimbledon 2018 Men's Prediction


Which man will win Wimbledon?
I have a funny feeling that Roger Federer will not be hoisting the cup on the final Sunday of Wimbledon.  He’s pretty much everyone’s favourite to win, including the bookies.  Although he’s the winningest player on grass, with an open-era record 18 titles on the surface including 8 at Wimbledon, he’s not nearly as safe a pick as Rafael Nadal is on clay.

Not Federer?
Federer has two questionable losses this year, to Kokkinakis in the first round of Miami, and to Coric in the final of Halle.  Both opponents played well, but I can’t shake the feeling that Federer could have taken those very close matches.  He did not seem to have the mental stiffness to see them through.  I have doubts about his confidence.

Federer is admittedly the favourite in his quarter and should get revenge over Coric in the fourth round.  But then he could face Sam Querrey who has eliminated the defending champion each of the last two years in quarter- and semi-final showings.  After that could come either Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic, who were runners-up the last two years.  It is far from an easy road.

Raonic has not fully rebounded from injury but Cilic is near the top of his game, having featured in two of the last four slam finals.  Cilic is the clear pick for the second quarter which includes Raonic, John Isner, and Grigor Dimitrov.  His path doesn’t look too bad, except for the potential blockbuster with Raonic in the fourth round.

To my mind Cilic is a near favourite with Roger for the title.  If Federer falters, which I half-expect, it is Cilic who I think will claim the championship. 

Quarter-final Treats
Although the three best picks are in the top, the bottom half is far from easy.  I would most like to see quarter-finals that featured Novak Djokovic against third seed Alexander Zverev, and two-time champs Andy Murray versus Rafael Nadal.  Among these four it is very difficult to pick a favourite.

Murray is coming back from hip surgery and a year away from competitive play.  He had some promising results at Queen’s but it is by no means clear that he can get through matches against Paire, Shapovalov, Lopez, and Del Potro to reach the quarter-final. 

Nadal hasn’t been past the fourth at Wimbledon since making the final in 2011.  He is long overdue, and he looks to have a very manageable draw.  If Murray is not up to snuff, there appears little to prevent Nadal from reaching the semis… perhaps a motivated Delpo.

Zverev has not looked great since an injured loss to Thiem in the French quarters, but his game and booming serve seem suited to Wimbledon, the site of his only previous fourth-round showing at a slam.  He could face the oceanically talented but inconsistent Nick Kyrgios in the fourth.  Their budding rivalry is locked at 3-3.  The winner might run into Djokovic for a spot in the semi.

Djokovic has been making steady progress and seems on the cusp of regaining top form.  He could just as easily go out early, but I suspect he’s poised for a deep run.  A semi with Nadal or Murray would be a treat.  A confident Nadal is very tough to beat, regardless of surface.  But I think Novak is a more natural grass player and if he has nerves, they may not surface until the final.

Young Spoilers
There are a host of other young talents to watch that could wreak havoc with my predictions. Denis Shapovalov could give Murray and Delpo fits and make a surprise appearance in the quarters.  Borna Coric might show us that his win over Federer was no fluke.  Frances Tiafoe could make it through Verdasco and Thiem to trouble Djokovic.  Kyle Edmund has been having a standout year, and Stefanos Tsitsipas has looked dangerous all spring.  And then there’s unknown Marco Cecchinato who shocked the world with a semi-final run at the French.

Final Prediction
At the end of the day, while a Cilic win would not surprise me, the odds still favour Federer.  I predict Roger over Cilic and Djokovic over Nadal for the semis, with Federer claiming the crown.

Odds from bet365.com on 27 Jun 2018
1
Federer
2.75
2
Djokovic
6
3
Nadal
8
4
Cilic
8
5
Murray
13
6
AZverev
15
7
Kyrgios
17
8
Raonic
19
9
DelPotro
21
10
Dimitrov
26
11
Thiem
34
12
Coric
41
13
KAnderson
41
14
Shapovalov
41
15
Isner
67
16
Wawrinka
81
17
Querrey
81
18
Khachanov
81
19
Goffin
81
20
Nishikori
81
21
Edmund
81
22
Sock
101
23
Muller
101
24
Chung
101
25
Tsitsipas
126
26
Pouille
126
27
Medvedev
126
28
FLopez
151
29
Monfils
151
30
Bautista-Agut
151
31
Gasquet
151
32
SJohnson
201


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