Wimbledon 2018 Men's Prediction

Which man will win Wimbledon?

I have a funny feeling that Roger Federer will not be hoisting the cup on the final Sunday of Wimbledon.  He’s pretty much everyone’s favourite to win, including the bookies.  Although he’s the winningest player on grass, with an open-era record 18 titles on the surface including 8 at Wimbledon, he’s not nearly as safe a pick as Rafael Nadal is on clay.

Not Federer?

Federer has two questionable losses this year, to Kokkinakis in the first round of Miami, and to Coric in the final of Halle.  Both opponents played well, but I can’t shake the feeling that Federer could have taken those very close matches.  He did not seem to have the mental stiffness to see them through.  I have doubts about his confidence.

Federer is admittedly the favourite in his quarter and should get revenge over Coric in the fourth round.  But then he could face Sam Querrey who has eliminated the defending champion each of the last two years in quarter- and semi-final showings.  After that could come either Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic, who were runners-up the last two years.  It is far from an easy road.

Raonic has not fully rebounded from injury but Cilic is near the top of his game, having featured in two of the last four slam finals.  Cilic is the clear pick for the second quarter which includes Raonic, John Isner, and Grigor Dimitrov.  His path doesn’t look too bad, except for the potential blockbuster with Raonic in the fourth round.

To my mind Cilic is a near favourite with Roger for the title.  If Federer falters, which I half-expect, it is Cilic who I think will claim the championship. 

Quarter-final Treats

Although the three best picks are in the top, the bottom half is far from easy.  I would most like to see quarter-finals that featured Novak Djokovic against third seed Alexander Zverev, and two-time champs Andy Murray versus Rafael Nadal.  Among these four it is very difficult to pick a favourite.

Murray is coming back from hip surgery and a year away from competitive play.  He had some promising results at Queen’s but it is by no means clear that he can get through matches against Paire, Shapovalov, Lopez, and Del Potro to reach the quarter-final. 

Nadal hasn’t been past the fourth at Wimbledon since making the final in 2011.  He is long overdue, and he looks to have a very manageable draw.  If Murray is not up to snuff, there appears little to prevent Nadal from reaching the semis… perhaps a motivated Delpo.

Zverev has not looked great since an injured loss to Thiem in the French quarters, but his game and booming serve seem suited to Wimbledon, the site of his only previous fourth-round showing at a slam.  He could face the oceanically talented but inconsistent Nick Kyrgios in the fourth.  Their budding rivalry is locked at 3-3.  The winner might run into Djokovic for a spot in the semi.

Djokovic has been making steady progress and seems on the cusp of regaining top form.  He could just as easily go out early, but I suspect he’s poised for a deep run.  A semi with Nadal or Murray would be a treat.  A confident Nadal is very tough to beat, regardless of surface.  But I think Novak is a more natural grass player and if he has nerves, they may not surface until the final.

Young Spoilers

There are a host of other young talents to watch that could wreak havoc with my predictions. Denis Shapovalov could give Murray and Delpo fits and make a surprise appearance in the quarters.  Borna Coric might show us that his win over Federer was no fluke.  Frances Tiafoe could make it through Verdasco and Thiem to trouble Djokovic.  Kyle Edmund has been having a standout year, and Stefanos Tsitsipas has looked dangerous all spring.  And then there’s unknown Marco Cecchinato who shocked the world with a semi-final run at the French.

Final Prediction

At the end of the day, while a Cilic win would not surprise me, the odds still favour Federer.  I predict Roger over Cilic and Djokovic over Nadal for the semis, with Federer claiming the crown.

Odds from bet365.com on 27 Jun 2018

1	Federer	2.75
2	Djokovic	6
3	Nadal	8
4	Cilic	8
5	Murray	13
6	AZverev	15
7	Kyrgios	17
8	Raonic	19
9	DelPotro	21
10	Dimitrov	26
11	Thiem	34
12	Coric	41
13	KAnderson	41
14	Shapovalov	41
15	Isner	67
16	Wawrinka	81
17	Querrey	81
18	Khachanov	81
19	Goffin	81
20	Nishikori	81
21	Edmund	81
22	Sock	101
23	Muller	101
24	Chung	101
25	Tsitsipas	126
26	Pouille	126
27	Medvedev	126
28	FLopez	151
29	Monfils	151
30	Bautista-Agut	151
31	Gasquet	151
32	SJohnson	201