US Open 2018 Men’s Preview

US Open 2018 Men’s Preview

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  The top of men’s tennis is once again dominated by Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic.  They’ve each won a slam title this year and the breakthrough of the Next Gen, while promising at lesser tournaments, has been stubbornly resisted at the slams.  Is that about to change?

First Quarter

Rafael Nadal seems to have a reasonably easy path to the quarterfinal.  He could face Karen Khachanov in the third round, whom he beat in the semis of Toronto in a tight two sets.  The fourth round could bring up Kyle Edmund (seeded 16) or Jack Sock (18).  Top seeds in the lower half of the quarter are Dominic Thiem (9) and Kevin Anderson (5).  Thiem has made the fourth round in three of four outings in New York but played only one match on hard courts in preparation, a loss to Tsitsipas in Toronto, so I won’t be expecting much from him. 

Anderson is at a career high #5 on the backs of finalist performances at Wimbledon and last year’s US Open, where he went down meekly to Nadal.  A meeting in the quarters would hold less pressure for Anderson, but I still expect Rafa will be too good.  The quarter also holds a fascinating match-up between two Canadian teenagers, Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime.  Will the result be an indication of their futures?

Nadal d. Anderson

Second Quarter

Juan Martin Del Potro headlines the second quarter as the #3 seed across from #8 Grigor Dimitrov.  But there are two former champions lurking here.  Stan Wawrinka plays Dimitrov in the first, a rematch of their Wimbledon encounter a few weeks ago.  Wawrinka won that one and given his recent good form, I expect a repeat. The row doesn’t get any easier to hoe however as he could face Raonic (25) in the third and Isner (11) in the fourth round.

Del Potro could face Andy Murray in the third.  Murray looked revitalized in Washington, winning three matches, but pulled out after a three hour pyrrhic victory over Marius Copil.  In the fourth Delpo could get Borna Coric (20) or Stefanos Tsitsipas (15).  Both Next Gen have been hot this year and Tsitsipas’ defeat of four top ten players in Toronto was a beaver-tail slap heard round the world tennis pond.

Del Potro d. Wawrinka

Third Quarter

Alexander Zverev (4) has been a fixture in the top five for the last year.  He’s the first player outside of the Big 4 to win three 1000 titles in the last 13 years since Davydenko won his third in 2009.  He has not made much of an impression at the slams but did finally make a quarter-final at this year’s French.  Despite speculation that his smart-phone addicted generation can’t concentrate through five sets, it seems only a matter of time before he breaks through on the slam stage.  His draw looks manageable until the fourth round where he could face Schwartzman (13), Nishikori (21), or perhaps Monfils.

Across the quarter are Marin Cilic (7) and David Goffin (10) along with Next Gens Alex De Minaur who was runner-up in Washington and Frances Tiafoe who won the title in Delray Beach.  Cilic won the US title in 2014 and looks most likely to make it through this quarter despite some patchy play this summer.

Cilic d. Zverev

Fourth Quarter

This is the quarter that has everyone buzzing since it situates Novak Djokovic (6) opposite from Roger Federer (2).  Djokovic has been in slam-winning form this summer claiming the Wimbledon title and capturing a precedent-setting Masters 9000.  With his victory in Cincinnati over Federer, Djokovic has now won all nine Masters 1000 titles.  Ivan Lendl made a similar accomplishment in the Grand Prix era, before 1990, but Djokovic is the first since the tournaments achieved the prominence they have now.

Pablo Carreno Busta (12) made the semis here last year but has been in questionable form this summer.  He did just make the semis at the small 250 event in Winston-Salem, but I expect he will be no match for Nole.

Federer has one of the more difficult paths through the draw that could include the mercurial Benoit Paire in the second, the talented Nick Kyrgios (30) in the third and Fognini (14) or Chung (23) in the fourth.  Federer inches ahead in the head to head with Kyrgios 2-1 with eight of the nine sets they have played being decided in a tie-break.  Kyrgios seems to get up for the big-name players but loses interest perhaps against the rank and file.

Should Federer survive he is likely to face Djokovic in the quarters.  Djokovic leads the head to head 24-22 including 18-17 on hard courts.  By all measures it’s too close to call.  But where Djokovic has looked historic this summer, Federer has looked shaky.

Djokovic d. Federer

Semis

There’s no question Del Potro loves the US Open and the US Open and its contingent of Argentine fans love him.  Del Potro has looked focused and dispassionate this year and a deep run would seem in order.  Last year he dug deep to defeat Thiem and Federer before succumbing to Nadal in the semis.  He’s at a career high #3 but I suspect a similar fate awaits him this year.  Nadal was the strongest he’s been in years at Wimbledon and his victory in Canada was a bellwether.

Nadal d. Del Potro

Although Djokovic has owned Cilic 15-2 in the head to head, those two Cilic victories have come in the last three matches.  Nonetheless, with the form Djokovic has shown this summer he should scrap his way to victory.

Djokovic d. Cilic

Final

The two dominant names in men’s tennis this decade have been Nadal and Djokovic.  Nole has claimed 12 singles title in the 2010’s and Rafa 11.  A distant third is Federer with five.  It looks unlikely that the Next Gen will rise up in this tournament – Zverev and Tsitsipas may be the most likely – but when the final comes I expect the two most prolific winners of this decade to slug it out. 

Rafa has three US Open titles and Novak has two.  Djokovic is the only slam-winning player to hold a winning record against Nadal, a very close 27-25.  This is the most frequent rivalry of the Open Era (since 1968).  Rafa is in great form but hard is not his best surface.  Djokovic thrives on hard but has still not looked as consistently invincible as he did in the run-up to his career-defining four consecutive majors in 2016.  It’s almost a coin toss.  Nadal has lost only three times this year but I’ll go with the player I think thrives more easily on hard courts.

Djokovic d. Nadal

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 August 2018

1	Djokovic	3.5
2	Nadal	4.5
3	Federer	5.5
4	AZverev	11
5	Murray	13
6	Del Potro	13
7	Cilic	17
8	Kyrgios	21
9	Wawrinka	26
10	Raonic	26
11	Dimitrov	26
12	Thiem	34
13	Shapovalov	34
14	Nishikori	34
15	KAnderson	34
16	Isner	41
17	Khachanov	51
18	Tsitsipas	51
19	Chung	67
20	Tsonga	81
21	Goffin	81
22	Monfils	101
23	Edmund	101
24	Coric	101
25	Querrey	101
26	Pouille	101
27	Rublev	101
28	Sock	126
29	Fognini	151
30	MZverev	151
31	Bautista-Agut	151
32	Muller	151