US Open 2018 Women’s Preview

US Open 2018 Women’s Preview

It used to be easy to just pick Serena Williams as the favorite whenever she played.  But she hasn’t won a tournament since delivering a baby during last year’s US Open.  That she’s even playing and made the Wimbledon final is perhaps amazing.  But given some patchy play before and since then, it’s hard to call her the likely winner for this year’s US Open.  Her innate game and greatness are still there, and playing a major is sure to get the most of her intensity and focus.  But I have trouble believing this title will be hers.

So where to look? The current slam holders are ranked top four right now and are a good place to start:  Simona Halep, Caroline Wozniacki, Sloane Stephens, and Angelique Kerber. How did their draws shake out?

First Quarter

Simona Halep has sailed away from the rest of the field, claiming three titles from six finals this year and a 2000 point cushion at the top of the rankings.  She has some tricky players in her path like Kaia Kanepi in the first round and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the third.  But that pales to what could await in the fourth – namely either Williams sister.

Serena and Venus are unlucky to have been placed so close in the draw.  Venus made the semis last year and Serena is, of course, Serena – invincible and fearless queen.  Venus opens against 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and could get 16-year old Whitney Osuigwe in the second.  Who will emerge from the fourth round is anyone’s guess.  If Serena is on, she would be the default pick, but given recent form I am inclined toward Halep.

The other section of this quarter contains Karolina Pliskova (seeded 8) and two-time slam champ Garbine Muguruza (12).  Both have been in dreadful form this summer.  That may be fatal for Pliskova’s chances but Muguruza has seemed most likely to strike slam glory when least expected – which would definitely be now.  Two players who have been in good form are the other two seeds, Ashleigh Barty (18) and Maria Sakkari (32).

Halep d. Barty

Second Quarter

This is defending champ’s Sloane Stephens quarter.  She could face Azarenka in the third, whom Sloane has beaten twice this year, but trails 2-3 in the head to head.  Azarenka has shown flashes of goodness this year but not consistently enough to pick over a premier player, like Stephens has become.  The possible fourth round opponent is Elise Mertens who has had a breakout year and stands 8^th in the race rankings.  I have yet to believe in Mertens ability to take down a big player in a big event, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Also here is Elina Svitolina (7), who has racked up eight tournament wins in the last two years but has not thriven at the slams.  Her best showing at the US Open is fourth round, last year.  Her draw looks manageable although possible fourth round opponents Goerges (9) and Sevastova (19) could be nettlesome.

Stephens d. Svitolina

Third Quarter

Angelique Kerber (4) is fresh off a Wimbledon win and is a former US Open champion.  She is certainly one of the favourites, even if her form on North American hard courts has not looked convincing this summer.  She won one match in Cincinnati and none in Montreal.  She should have time to play her way into form, but could face Alize Cornet in the second, who beat her in Montreal.

Last year’s finalist, Madison Keys (14), lurks as a potential fourth rounder, and just beat Kerber in Cincy.  Keys’ big-hitting game is a fan favorite, but she can occasionally lose the plot and go down in a flurry of errors.

Across the way Caroline Garcia is seeded 6^th but faces recent top-tenner Johanna Konta in the first round.  Their head to head stands at 3-2 for Konta.  Garcia has never been past the third round of the Open so this has the markings of an upset. 

Also here are 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko and the redoubtable Maria Sharapova.  It really feels like Sharapova should be good and ready for a return to slam-winning form, and this quarter may help her along.  Meanwhile, Ostapenko made the semis at Wimbledon but has looked woeful since.  She might be usurped by 16-year old Amanda Anisimova who has shown some promising form this summer.

Kerber d. Sharapova

Fourth Round

The highest seeds here are Petra Kvitova (5) and Caroline Wozniacki (2).  Kvitova has a tour-leading five titles but has won only two slam matches this year.  Wozniacki finally received career vindication by winning the Australian title in January but has won only one match in her last three tournaments.  The US Open is arguably her best slam, having made five semis including two finals.  She opens against 2011 champ Samantha Stosur, but more formidable might be a fourth rounder against 16^th seed, Kiki Bertens.

Bertens had seemed a clay court specialist before making the quarters of Wimbledon and Montreal this year.  But that was just a prelude to taking down four top-ten players to claim the crown in Cincinnati. Will she take a pause after that laurel or be a significant force at this US Open?

Also here are Indian Wells finalists Daria Kasatkina (11) and Naomi Osaka (20), along with Aryna Sabalenka (26) just 20 years old and fresh winner of the New Haven title.  I’m looking for Sabalenka to take out Kvitova and Kasatkina, and Bertens to beat Wozniacki.

Bertens d. Sabalenka

Semis

Halep and Stephens have staged some fascinating struggles this year, not the least of which was the French Open final, in which Halep came back from a set and a break down to claim her first slam.  Stephens will love the home crowd but may also feel the pressure of defending her crown.

Halep d. Stephens

Kerber and Bertens are 2:1 in their head to head and all the matches have been close.  Bertens showed real mental resilience in her victory over Halep in Cincy but Kerber has more big match experience, already the owner of three slam titles.

Kerber d. Bertens

Final

Kerber and Halep played one of the most entertaining matches of the year, a 9-7 in the third thriller in the semis of the Australian Open won by Halep.  Halep has been roaring this summer and Kerber doesn’t have the big game that can easily vanquish Simona.

Halep d. Bertens

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 Aug 2018

1	SWilliams	6
2	Kerber	8
3	Halep	8
4	Stephens	11
5	Muguruza	13
6	Wozniacki	13
7	Svitolina	13
8	Keys	15
9	KaPliskova	15
10	Kvitova	15
11	Sharapova	19
12	Azarenka	19
13	Osaka	21
14	Kasatkina	21
15	Ostapenko	26
16	Konta	26
17	VWilliams	29
18	Bertens	29
19	Vandeweghe	34
20	Barty	41
21	Sabalenka	41
22	Garcia	41
23	Mertens	51
24	Buzarnescu	51
25	Giorgi	51
26	Safarova	67
27	Kontaveit	67
28	Kuznetsova	67
29	Sakkari	67
30	Goerges	67
31	Cibulkova	67
32	Vondrousova	81