French Open 2019 Women’s Draw – 26 May 2019

French Open 2019 Women’s Draw – 26 May 2019

There is no favourite.  Although women’s tennis often feels wide open, the clay season usually nominates a few hot hands that end up doing well at Roland Garros in Paris.  But even in the free-for-all that has accompanied the twilight of Serena’s dominance, 2019 has been particularly brutal for the oddsmakers.  There are six different women who could hold the #1 ranking when the tournament ends and about 20 who have a reasonable shot at the title.

First Quarter

Naomi Osaka (seeded 1) headlines a slam draw for the first time as the top seed.  She’s halfway to a non-calendar grand slam, laying claim to both the Australian and US Open titles, seemingly out of nowhere.  She has held the world #1 ranking for 18 weeks and, with the points lead in hand, has the best shot to emerge with it in two weeks time.  Clay has not been her forte, but this year she appears to be finding her footing on it, albeit without a title on dirt. Her hard-pounding game and steely resolve translate well on every surface.  She exited injured from two events in the run-up to the French, with an abdominal strain and a swollen thumb. Hopefully they do not interfere, because it would be nice to see what this newly minted champ is capable of on clay.  She seems to thrive on the big stage.

Her second round match could be a block buster against either Azarenka or 2017 champ Jelena Ostapenko.  That these former slam champions are unseeded and meeting in the first round says a lot about the depth in the current game.  Ostapenko has looked mostly lost this year, but if there’s a lesson from her 2017 campaign, it is that she can peak suddenly.  Victoria Azarenka is a two-time slam champ and former yearend #1.  She will be 30 in a few weeks and has done little to attract attention this year.  But the heart and skill of a champion lie within her, and even though titles no longer come easily, she still has the game to rise up and defeat any opponent on her day.

Maria Sakkari (29) is nearby.  The Greek claimed the clay 280 title in Rabat and made the semis at the 900 in Rome.  She has the self-belief of youth and a potent game that can cause trouble for even the best.  Caroline Garcia (24) enjoys home court advantage, but has never thriven in Paris.  Her best showing here was a quarter-final in 2017.  She made waves by claiming back to back 900+ titles in 2017, so she must never be counted out.

Madison Keys (14) made the semis in Paris last year and claimed the title in Charleston in early spring.  She wallops the ball and clay is forgiving to her less than stellar court speed.  She’s definitely a contender but not one of the foremost favourites.  Sofia Kenin is only 20 and has had a breakout year, claiming the title in Hobart.

Even younger at 18, Bianca Andreescu (22) has shown star quality this year.  From a ranking outside the top 100, she made the final in Auckland, and less than three months later claimed the 1000 at Indian Wells, heralded by some as the fifth slam.  Her astonishing progress was halted by a shoulder injury.  She lands at Roland Garros without clay preparation or tour matches for two months.  If she can play into form and her injury is healed, she could be very dangerous, but there are too many unknowns to predict a deep run.

Ashleigh Barty (8) likewise claimed a 1000 title in March, in Miami.  She has ascended into the top 10 for the first time, this year, and looks to have the talent to make it a long stay.  The great variety in her game and collection of unpredictable spins has not yet translated to significant clay success but she is solid and no one will want to face her.

Not to be overlooked is the inimitable Serena Williams (10).  She played only one match on clay and has exited all four tournaments she’s played this year with injury.  Countless times she has shown that she can win without preparation and her off-the-charts talent means that she is always dangerous.  The three-time champ has more titles here than any other active player, besting Sharapova’s two, and the one held by each of Kuznetsova, Ostapenko, Muguruza, and Halep. However, she hasn’t won a title in nearly two and a half years and her recent susceptibility to injury is not promising.  I’m not sure who will beat her.  If recent form holds it will be some combination of either herself or injury.

Osaka def. SWilliams

Second Quarter

Last year’s champion, Simona Halep (3), has not racked up any clay titles this year, but she is still the default favourite for most observers, including the bookies.  She has stated that everything in her career is a bonus now that she has won a slam.  This does not bespeak the steely resolve necessary to come out on top of the two week gauntlet that any slam draw becomes.  But her clay talents are significant and no one else’s record screams for recognition as the must-have pick for this tournament.  She could have her hands full in the first round against Alja Tomljanovic. 

Should she survive, her draw looks fairly reasonable until about the quarters where she could meet Daria Kasatkina (21).  Kasatkina has had a reasonably dreadful year, but she seems to do best on clay and won two matches in Rome, her best outing all year.  Kasatkina could be a contender for the title although her recent form does not suggest it.

Not far away in the draw is Iga Swiatek.  The 17 year old is having a break out year and is into the main draw of a slam without qualifying for the first time.  She made the final in Lugano.  Another break out year was had by Aryna Sabalenka (11), in 2018.  But after claiming the Shenzhen title in the first week of 2019, she has mostly struggled.  She showed signs of improvement in Rome winning two matches.  When she finds her best game she has the tools to beat anyone.

Her second round opponent could be Amanda Anisimova who made a splash in Australia by making the fourth round with a victory over Sabalenka.  Anisimova is 17 and won the title in Bogota on clay.  A possible third round opponent is Anett Kontaveit (17).  Kontaveit made the final of the high caliber draw in Stuttgart on clay, as well as the semis of Miami.  No one will look forward to playing her.

Veterans Vera Zvonareva and Samantha Stosur could win a couple matches for old time’s sake.  Both could have early round clashes with one of the heavy favourites, Petra Kvitova (6).  Kvitova made an emotional return to the tour two years ago in Paris, after being sidelined with a hand-injury sustained in a knife attack at her home six months earlier.  Then she was lauded for winning a match.  Now she is a reasonable pick for the crown.  In January she returned to a slam final for the first time since 2014.  She is the only women on tour this year to make four tournament finals, claiming two titles.  Her deepest run here was to the semis, but it was way back in 2012.  If she can calm her nerves, she is capable of anything.

Halep def. Kvitova

Third Quarter

Last year’s runner-up was Sloane Stephens, seeded 7^th this year.  Surprisingly, she has not won a tournament since then, losing her last three finals.  Until that point she had won all six that she had contested.  Hopefully she will cross that rubicon soon and return to her winning ways on finals day.  Her game is still potent.  She’s just announced her engagement, but if she can get her head back in the game, there’s no reason she can’t threaten for the title.

Near to her is a nasty little section of the draw that features Venus Williams, 2016 champ Muguruza, and clay stand-out Elina Svitolina (9).  Unfortunately the exigencies of life meant I did not get this preview completed before the first round of play.  One of the highest caliber first rounds in the draw took place between Venus and Elina, and Svitolina emerged the winner.  Svitolina is one of the best clay-courters in the game and has won the 900 in Rome twice.  She also claimed the yearend WTA Finals six months ago, one of the toughest wins in the sport.  She’s looked better on hard courts this year than on clay, and she’s never lived up to her top tier potential at the slams.  Perhaps this is the year she turns it around.

After Venus, she could get Muguruza in the third round, Stephens in the fourth, and Bertens in the quarters – a veritable murderer’s row.  Garbine Muguruza (19) first gave notice of her deep talent at this tournament in 2014 when she defeated Serena Williams in a run to the quarter-finals.  She defeated Williams again in the 2016 final, and made the semis here last year.  She hasn’t looked particularly strong this year, although she did take the 280 title in Monterrey.  I would bet against her this time around, but it’s impossible to count her out completely.

Former world #7 Belinda Bencic (15) is slowly regaining the top form she first displayed in 2015.  The last three years have been filled with injuries and comebacks.  Still only 22 years old, she has lots of time to add to her trophy collection.  She is #5 in the yearly race and although clay has not been her favourite surface, she could play well above her seeding.

Yulia Putintseva won the 280 title in Nurnberg last week, and Johanna Konta (26) surprised everyone with a finalist performance in Rome.  Most impressively perhaps, Konta beat Kiki Bertens (4), the woman many are picking for the title.  Bertens won the clay 1000 in Madrid and made the semis at both Rome and Stuttgart, also on clay.  And she won the St. Petersburg 470 in February.  She is sporting the most impressive clay record this year, and on recent form probably deserves to be the favourite ahead of Halep.  She’s shown in the last year that she’s a threat on hard as well as clay.  Does she have the self-belief to claim a title on the grandest stage, at a slam?  Perhaps we will find out this week.  She can get out-played by a bigger talent, but she can also hit retrievers, like Halep, off the court when she’s on.  Bertens second round could be against up and coming 21-year old Viktoria Kuzmova, who beat Kiki in Dubai this year.

Bertens def. Stephens

Fourth Quarter

As I foresaw, Angelique Kerber (5) lost her first match (check out my prediction at tennisdrawchallenge.com) and this opens the way for Marketa Vondrousova.  The 19 year old made the finals of Istanbul and Budapest, as well as beating Halep in Rome.  Her draw could open up and a run to the quarters looks possible.  She seems to take full advantage of her left-handedness to bamboozle other players.

Kerber’s void could also favour Dayana Yastremska, another 19 year old, if she can get by Suarez Navarro (28) in the first round.  Yastremska is one of just four women to win two tournaments this year, claiming the clay 280 in Strasbourg last week.  The other three are Bertens, Kvitova, and Pliskova – heady company indeed.

Caroline Wozniacki (9) is probably at her best on hard courts, but does sport the odd clay title in her resume, and has been to the quarters here twice.  Nor should Petra Martic (31) be overlooked.  Martic won the 280 title in Istanbul on clay, and made the semis of the 470 in Charleston.  She’s also been to the fourth round of a slam three times in the last two years.

Svetlana Kuznetsova, 2009 champion, lost her first match, but would have had her hands full if she faced Karolina Pliskova (2) in the second round.  Pliskova is having a fine year, taking the titles in Brisbane and Rome and showing as runner-up in Miami.  She’s risen to #2 in both the rankings and the yearly race, and could take #1 in both if she outlasts Osaka and Kvitova, respectively.  Clay may not seem her most natural surface, but it allows her to knock her big groundies while compensating for her sometimes uni-directional movement.  Not that she isn’t fast, but changing direction is not always a strength, and clay adds just a little more time for her to right the ship.  She scored an impressive victory over Serena Williams in Melbourne, coming from match points down, aided perhaps by an ankle injury to Serena.  The bookies have given her reasonably short odds, so no one is taking her for granted.

KaPliskova def. Vondrousova

Semis

Halep def. Osaka

Bertens def. KaPliskova

Final

Halep and Bertens are probably the best clay players of the last two years, but to be honest, I would be shocked if they both make the final as I predicted.  They both have weaknesses and have shown inconstancy.  But so has everyone else, so at the end of the day, they are the most likely choices, it seems, for the final.  Because she’s been there three times before and won it last year, I pick

Halep def. Bertens

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 21 May 2019

Rank	Player	Odds
1	Halep	5
2	Bertens	10
3	Osaka	11
4	SWilliams	13
5	Kvitova	13
6	Stephens	15
7	KaPliskova	15
8	Svitolina	17
9	Barty	17
10	Muguruza	19
11	Kerber	23
12	Keys	23
13	Azarenka	23
14	Bencic	26
15	Andreescu	29
16	Kontaveit	34
17	Vondrousova	34
18	Kontaveit	34
19	Sakkari	34
20	Wozniacki	41
21	Garcia	41
22	Sevastova	41
23	Kasatkina	41
24	Ostapenko	41
25	Sabalenka	41
26	Mertens	51
27	Goerges	51
28	Mladenovic	51
29	Anisimova	51
30	Yastremska	51
31	VWilliams	67
32	Swiatek	67
33	Vekic	67
34	Bacsinszky	81
35	SuarezNavarro	81
36	Collins	101
37	QWang	101
38	Cibulkova	101
39	Kostyuk	101
40	Buzarnescu	101
41	Bouchard	101
42	Pavlyuchenkova	101
43	Pera	101
44	Teichmann	101
45	Kuznetsova	101