Rafael Nadal
Invitational – 25 May 2019
As we look toward another French Open at Roland Garros, is
Nadal still the unstoppable force on clay he has been for the last decade and a
half? Surprisingly, he lost three
European clay warm-up tournaments this spring, but he found his best form last
week and claimed the title in Rome. His
supposed vulnerability, trumpeted by the commentariat for six weeks, now looks ephemeral. He has peaked at the perfect time to extend
his dominance to a record-shattering 12th title at a single
slam. Who will be his biggest
challengers?
First Quarter
Alexander Zverev
(seeded 5) had a reasonable start to the year making his first ever fourth
round at a hard court slam, in Melbourne.
But since losing the final in Acapulco to Kyrgios, he had only 6 wins
against 8 losses through Rome last week.
But this week he has claimed the small 250 title in Geneva and he did
make the quarters in Madrid, so on balance, it looks like he’s found some form
just in time for this slam. Best of five
seems to be a challenge for him, however I see his progression at slams as
steadily improving. Last year he made
his first slam quarter-final here. Can
he do better this year? He’ll have his
hands full if he has to face Novak Djokovic.
He may also have a tussle with Dusan Lajovic (31) in the third round (3R). Lajovic took out Thiem, Medvedev, and Goffin on
a trip to the final of Monte Carlo where he was edged out by Fabio Fognini (9). Fognini earned his third victory over Nadal
on clay, in the semis of Monte Carlo.
His form has been reasonable since, but despite his many gifts, Fognini
has been as far as the quarters in Paris only once. He has a reasonable shot to get that far
again, but may have to beat Zverev in the fourth round and then would likely
face Djokovic. Fognini is actually
capable of getting past both those top five players and challenging for the
title, but like his uber-talented brethren Kyrgios and Monfils, he has not
shown perseverance on the big slam stages.
Borna Coric (13)
has made great strides in the last year, rising from a ranking of 40. Still only 22 years old, he is no slouch on
clay and his best two slam results are his most recent ones. He’s poised to do better but is slated to
meet Djokovic in 4R, whom he has not beaten in 3 attempts.
Novak Djokovic
(1) is the winner of the last three slam tournaments and is already the only
man to win three in a row, three different times – having won three straight in
2011-12, and four in 2015-16. Will he
become the first in the open era to win four in a row twice? His first match against Hubert Hurkacz could
be tricky. Novak may need to find top
form early if he is to survive challenges from Hurkacz, Coric, and Fognini or
Zverev to get out of this quarter.
Earlier in his career it seemed Djokovic could park at stratospheric
levels, racking up Masters 1000 and Slam titles at a prodigious rate between
2011 and 2016. But since re-emerging
last year and winning three slams he has looked distinctly more mortal at 1000
and lesser events. He can still find
that top gear, but it is no longer effortlessly always there. If he does find his way through the early
challenges, will he be able to locate his best tennis if he has to face Thiem
or Nadal in the final rounds? And will
his best remaining tennis be enough to handle those two clay court geniuses in
best of five? I suspect he will have
enough juice to take down one of them but not both. And even if Novak can avoid Thiem, a healthy
Nadal in the final at Roland Garros will always be the odds on favourite.
Djokovic def. Zverev
Second Quarter
Dominic Thiem (4)
has achieved his first ever top-four seeding at a slam, which takes him out of
the path of Djokovic and Nadal until at least the semi-finals. He notched his fourth consecutive year with a
win on clay against Nadal by beating the Spaniard in the semis of
Barcelona. He was then edged by Djokovic
in the semis of Madrid and lost disappointingly in the first round of Rome to
Verdasco. He is heralded by some as the
great clay hope to finally unseat Nadal.
But despite his recent victories even their respective clay records this
year show that Thiem (11 wins – 5 losses) is still behind Nadal (14 wins – 3
losses). And the loss to Verdasco
reminds us that Thiem’s presence in the final has a much lower probability than
Nadal’s. Should Thiem make it that far,
remember that in last year’s final Nadal blitzed Thiem in three straight sets.
But I won’t count Thiem out.
He has the sort of explosive game that can trouble anyone, including the
King of Clay. His draw starts out
reasonably but he could face Verdasco or Monfils in round four. Fernando
Verdasco (23) has experienced a resurgence this year at age 35. He’s won six matches in his last three clay
tournaments, looking stronger with each outing.
Meanwhile, Gael Monfils (14)
sits at 9th in this year’s race, after claiming the 500 title in
Rotterdam. He hasn’t shown much on clay
this year, but three previous quarter-finals and one trip to the semis demonstrate
his potency at this venue.
Karen Khachanov
(10) looked invincible in taking the indoor hardcourt 1000 in Paris at the end
of last year, dismantling Zverev, Thiem, and Djokovic consecutively, all in
straight sets. But he has looked more
pedestrian this year, posting only a 10-12 (win-loss) record. He could still be dangerous if he catches
fire. Nearby in the draw is Lucas Pouille (22), who made the semis
at the Australian in January. Since then
he has managed only one tour level match win.
Also near is Felix
Auger-Aliassime (25). The Canadian
is only 18 years old and seeded for the first time at a slam. He has rocketed up the rankings this year
from #108 in January to #22 in this Monday’s release, surpassing his young
countryman, Shapovalov, by two spots.
He’s just made his second clay final of the year, losing to Paire. While he could do some serious damage at this
slam, Felix’s draw is not particularly easy.
Felix seems to regularly beat players ranked below him or those not too
much older than him, but he has never really upset a top player.
I wrote all that before I knew that Felix had to withdraw
with a groin pull. Most
unfortunate. Let’s hope he’s fit for
Wimbledon.
He was slated to meet Juan
Martin Del Potro (8) in the third round.
Delpo needs no introduction, and his well-known sledge hammer forehand
is the kind of weapon that could earn him a victory over anyone on any surface,
including Nadal on clay. But Del Potro
is recently returned from injury and has not been known for his endurance at
the best of times. I can’t see him
surviving slugging it out with Thiem, Djokovic, and Nadal successively. One long match and he’ll be toast.
Thiem def. Del Potro
Third Quarter
It seems Stefanos
Tsitsipas (6) is fourth on everyone’s list of favourites this year. The 20-year old Greek made waves last year
with his solid play and a victory over Djokovic in Canada. And this year he exploded into the public’s
consciousness by taking Federer out of the Australian Open in a run to the
semi-finals. His great play has only
continued. He has already claimed two
titles this year and sits at 3rd in the yearly race. To top it off, he beat Nadal on clay in
Madrid.
The draw gods have done him few favours. His first match against Maximilian Marterer
could be dangerous, and he could get the explosive Tiafoe in round three. Round four could bring up Wawrinka or Marin Cilic (11). A three-time slam finalist, Cilic has look
rather middling this year but did win three matches in Madrid. Stan
Wawrinka (24) is a three-time slam titlist, but has struggled with injuries
and form since his runner-up showing at Roland Garros two years ago. He’s shown flashes of decent play this year
at Rotterdam and Madrid, but can’t seem to sustain it. It looks like he will not threaten the top
players.
Last year’s surprise semi-finalist, Marco Cecchinato (16), made the semis at the 250 in Munich but has
given us little reason to suspect he can match last year’s banner
performance. Diego Schwartzman (17) has a difficult opener against Marton
Fucsovics. Diego made the semis in Rome
and took Djokovic to three sets. He is
tough on any surface but especially on clay.
His draw is challenging and looks to get more so should he make the
fourth round to face Roger Federer
(3).
Federer last played Roland Garros in 2015. The five time finalist is still dangerous on
clay, but one wonders how he will hold up to best of five setters on this
grinding surface. If he can keep his
matches short and if he stays in the zone, the title is within reach, but he is
likely behind the three favourites of Nadal, Djokovic, and Thiem, and maybe
even Tsitsipas. Should he meet the
Greek, I expect he will be in revenge mode.
Roger could meet Matteo
Berrettini (29) in the third round.
Berrettini has been ripping up the clay season, claiming the title in
Budapest and a runner-up spot in Munich.
Federer def.
Tsitsipas
Fourth Quarter
There is no one in this quarter who looks remotely
threatening to Nadal. Kei Nishikori (7) has beaten the
Spaniard on clay in the distant past, but has largely floundered this year. Daniel
Medvedev (12) found his clay legs and took Djokovic out of Monte Carlo, but
seemed to lose that momentum by Rome. Nikoloz Basilashvili (15) is a decent
clay player who is unlikely to cause a major upset. Former #6 David Goffin (27) is here too, but he seems far from his best
tennis.
Rafael Nadal (2)
opens against a qualifier and is a guaranteed one in the second round as
well. It would be surprising if he lost
a set before the semifinals. He had a
tougher start to his clay season than normal, not claiming a title until Rome,
the longest he’s been delayed that pleasure in any year since he first started
winning on the tour. He’ll likely face
Federer or Tsitsipas in the semis.
Although Tsitsipas beat him in Madrid, Rafa extracted a demolishing
revenge in Rome. If he should face
Federer, he will probably end Roger’s five match winning streak in their
rivalry. All the most dangerous players
for Nadal, like Djokovic, Thiem, and Fognini, are in the other half of the draw
so Nadal can meet only one of them, in the final. There appears little to stand in the way of a
twelfth title.
Nadal def. Nishikori
Semis
Djokovic def. Thiem
Nadal def. Tsitsipas
Final
A win for Djokovic would give him a second non-calendar
grand slam – only one other player in the open era has won four in a row: Rod Laver in 1969. Even without the outright lead in slam titles,
there is a reasonable argument that two such accomplishments should make Novak
the GOAT. Neither Federer nor Nadal have
accomplished one. It would raise Nole’s
slam total to 16, just one behind Nadal.
On the other hand, if Nadal wins, he raises his slam total
to 18, just two behind Federer and three ahead of Djokovic. That would put Nadal within forseeable reach
of the Swiss Maestro. If he can maintain
his dominance on clay, and there is little to suggest he cannot, Federer’s
record of 20 could fall within two years.
Of course there is the small matter of Serena Williams’ 23 Open Era slam
titles to contend with.
Nadal def. Djokovic
Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 21 May 2019
Rank
|
Player
|
Odds
|
1
|
Nadal
|
2.1
|
2
|
Djokovic
|
3.25
|
3
|
Thiem
|
5.5
|
4
|
Tsitsipas
|
17
|
5
|
Federer
|
18
|
6
|
AZverev
|
18
|
7
|
Wawrinka
|
34
|
8
|
Fognini
|
41
|
9
|
DMedvedev
|
41
|
10
|
Nishikori
|
41
|
11
|
Del Potro
|
51
|
12
|
Cilic
|
51
|
13
|
Khachanov
|
51
|
14
|
Raonic
|
67
|
15
|
Monfils
|
67
|
16
|
Coric
|
67
|
17
|
Schwartzman
|
67
|
18
|
Chung
|
81
|
19
|
Shapovalov
|
81
|
20
|
Dimitrov
|
81
|
21
|
Goffin
|
81
|
22
|
Auger-Aliassime
|
81
|
23
|
Kyrgios
|
81
|
24
|
Edmund
|
101
|
25
|
Cecchinato
|
101
|
26
|
Berdych
|
101
|
27
|
Tsonga
|
101
|
28
|
BautistaAgut
|
101
|
29
|
Munar
|
101
|
30
|
Isner
|
101
|
31
|
Berrettini
|
101
|
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