Rafael Nadal Invitational – 25 May 2019

Rafael Nadal Invitational – 25 May 2019

As we look toward another French Open at Roland Garros, is Nadal still the unstoppable force on clay he has been for the last decade and a half?  Surprisingly, he lost three European clay warm-up tournaments this spring, but he found his best form last week and claimed the title in Rome.  His supposed vulnerability, trumpeted by the commentariat for six weeks, now looks ephemeral.  He has peaked at the perfect time to extend his dominance to a record-shattering 12^th title at a single slam.  Who will be his biggest challengers?

First Quarter

Alexander Zverev (seeded 5) had a reasonable start to the year making his first ever fourth round at a hard court slam, in Melbourne.  But since losing the final in Acapulco to Kyrgios, he had only 6 wins against 8 losses through Rome last week.  But this week he has claimed the small 250 title in Geneva and he did make the quarters in Madrid, so on balance, it looks like he’s found some form just in time for this slam.  Best of five seems to be a challenge for him, however I see his progression at slams as steadily improving.  Last year he made his first slam quarter-final here.  Can he do better this year?  He’ll have his hands full if he has to face Novak Djokovic.

He may also have a tussle with Dusan Lajovic (31) in the third round (3R).  Lajovic took out Thiem, Medvedev, and Goffin on a trip to the final of Monte Carlo where he was edged out by Fabio Fognini (9).  Fognini earned his third victory over Nadal on clay, in the semis of Monte Carlo.  His form has been reasonable since, but despite his many gifts, Fognini has been as far as the quarters in Paris only once.  He has a reasonable shot to get that far again, but may have to beat Zverev in the fourth round and then would likely face Djokovic.  Fognini is actually capable of getting past both those top five players and challenging for the title, but like his uber-talented brethren Kyrgios and Monfils, he has not shown perseverance on the big slam stages.

Borna Coric (13) has made great strides in the last year, rising from a ranking of 40.  Still only 22 years old, he is no slouch on clay and his best two slam results are his most recent ones.  He’s poised to do better but is slated to meet Djokovic in 4R, whom he has not beaten in 3 attempts.

Novak Djokovic (1) is the winner of the last three slam tournaments and is already the only man to win three in a row, three different times – having won three straight in 2011-12, and four in 2015-16.  Will he become the first in the open era to win four in a row twice?  His first match against Hubert Hurkacz could be tricky.  Novak may need to find top form early if he is to survive challenges from Hurkacz, Coric, and Fognini or Zverev to get out of this quarter.  Earlier in his career it seemed Djokovic could park at stratospheric levels, racking up Masters 1000 and Slam titles at a prodigious rate between 2011 and 2016.  But since re-emerging last year and winning three slams he has looked distinctly more mortal at 1000 and lesser events.  He can still find that top gear, but it is no longer effortlessly always there.  If he does find his way through the early challenges, will he be able to locate his best tennis if he has to face Thiem or Nadal in the final rounds?  And will his best remaining tennis be enough to handle those two clay court geniuses in best of five?  I suspect he will have enough juice to take down one of them but not both.  And even if Novak can avoid Thiem, a healthy Nadal in the final at Roland Garros will always be the odds on favourite.

Djokovic def. Zverev

Second Quarter

Dominic Thiem (4) has achieved his first ever top-four seeding at a slam, which takes him out of the path of Djokovic and Nadal until at least the semi-finals.  He notched his fourth consecutive year with a win on clay against Nadal by beating the Spaniard in the semis of Barcelona.  He was then edged by Djokovic in the semis of Madrid and lost disappointingly in the first round of Rome to Verdasco.  He is heralded by some as the great clay hope to finally unseat Nadal.  But despite his recent victories even their respective clay records this year show that Thiem (11 wins – 5 losses) is still behind Nadal (14 wins – 3 losses).  And the loss to Verdasco reminds us that Thiem’s presence in the final has a much lower probability than Nadal’s.  Should Thiem make it that far, remember that in last year’s final Nadal blitzed Thiem in three straight sets.

But I won’t count Thiem out.  He has the sort of explosive game that can trouble anyone, including the King of Clay.  His draw starts out reasonably but he could face Verdasco or Monfils in round four.  Fernando Verdasco (23) has experienced a resurgence this year at age 35.  He’s won six matches in his last three clay tournaments, looking stronger with each outing.  Meanwhile, Gael Monfils (14) sits at 9^th in this year’s race, after claiming the 500 title in Rotterdam.  He hasn’t shown much on clay this year, but three previous quarter-finals and one trip to the semis demonstrate his potency at this venue.

Karen Khachanov (10) looked invincible in taking the indoor hardcourt 1000 in Paris at the end of last year, dismantling Zverev, Thiem, and Djokovic consecutively, all in straight sets.  But he has looked more pedestrian this year, posting only a 10-12 (win-loss) record.  He could still be dangerous if he catches fire.  Nearby in the draw is Lucas Pouille (22), who made the semis at the Australian in January.  Since then he has managed only one tour level match win. 

Also near is Felix Auger-Aliassime (25).  The Canadian is only 18 years old and seeded for the first time at a slam.  He has rocketed up the rankings this year from #108 in January to #22 in this Monday’s release, surpassing his young countryman, Shapovalov, by two spots.  He’s just made his second clay final of the year, losing to Paire.  While he could do some serious damage at this slam, Felix’s draw is not particularly easy.  Felix seems to regularly beat players ranked below him or those not too much older than him, but he has never really upset a top player. 

I wrote all that before I knew that Felix had to withdraw with a groin pull.  Most unfortunate.  Let’s hope he’s fit for Wimbledon.

He was slated to meet Juan Martin Del Potro (8) in the third round.  Delpo needs no introduction, and his well-known sledge hammer forehand is the kind of weapon that could earn him a victory over anyone on any surface, including Nadal on clay.  But Del Potro is recently returned from injury and has not been known for his endurance at the best of times.  I can’t see him surviving slugging it out with Thiem, Djokovic, and Nadal successively.  One long match and he’ll be toast.

Thiem def. Del Potro

Third Quarter

It seems Stefanos Tsitsipas (6) is fourth on everyone’s list of favourites this year.  The 20-year old Greek made waves last year with his solid play and a victory over Djokovic in Canada.  And this year he exploded into the public’s consciousness by taking Federer out of the Australian Open in a run to the semi-finals.  His great play has only continued.  He has already claimed two titles this year and sits at 3^rd in the yearly race.  To top it off, he beat Nadal on clay in Madrid.

The draw gods have done him few favours.  His first match against Maximilian Marterer could be dangerous, and he could get the explosive Tiafoe in round three.  Round four could bring up Wawrinka or Marin Cilic (11).  A three-time slam finalist, Cilic has look rather middling this year but did win three matches in Madrid.  Stan Wawrinka (24) is a three-time slam titlist, but has struggled with injuries and form since his runner-up showing at Roland Garros two years ago.  He’s shown flashes of decent play this year at Rotterdam and Madrid, but can’t seem to sustain it.  It looks like he will not threaten the top players.

Last year’s surprise semi-finalist, Marco Cecchinato (16), made the semis at the 250 in Munich but has given us little reason to suspect he can match last year’s banner performance.  Diego Schwartzman (17) has a difficult opener against Marton Fucsovics.  Diego made the semis in Rome and took Djokovic to three sets.  He is tough on any surface but especially on clay.  His draw is challenging and looks to get more so should he make the fourth round to face Roger Federer (3). 

Federer last played Roland Garros in 2015.  The five time finalist is still dangerous on clay, but one wonders how he will hold up to best of five setters on this grinding surface.  If he can keep his matches short and if he stays in the zone, the title is within reach, but he is likely behind the three favourites of Nadal, Djokovic, and Thiem, and maybe even Tsitsipas.  Should he meet the Greek, I expect he will be in revenge mode.

Roger could meet Matteo Berrettini (29) in the third round.  Berrettini has been ripping up the clay season, claiming the title in Budapest and a runner-up spot in Munich.

Federer def. Tsitsipas

Fourth Quarter

There is no one in this quarter who looks remotely threatening to Nadal.  Kei Nishikori (7) has beaten the Spaniard on clay in the distant past, but has largely floundered this year.  Daniel Medvedev (12) found his clay legs and took Djokovic out of Monte Carlo, but seemed to lose that momentum by Rome.  Nikoloz Basilashvili (15) is a decent clay player who is unlikely to cause a major upset.  Former #6 David Goffin (27) is here too, but he seems far from his best tennis.

Rafael Nadal (2) opens against a qualifier and is a guaranteed one in the second round as well.  It would be surprising if he lost a set before the semifinals.  He had a tougher start to his clay season than normal, not claiming a title until Rome, the longest he’s been delayed that pleasure in any year since he first started winning on the tour.  He’ll likely face Federer or Tsitsipas in the semis.  Although Tsitsipas beat him in Madrid, Rafa extracted a demolishing revenge in Rome.  If he should face Federer, he will probably end Roger’s five match winning streak in their rivalry.  All the most dangerous players for Nadal, like Djokovic, Thiem, and Fognini, are in the other half of the draw so Nadal can meet only one of them, in the final.  There appears little to stand in the way of a twelfth title.

Nadal def. Nishikori

Semis

Djokovic def. Thiem

Nadal def. Tsitsipas

Final

A win for Djokovic would give him a second non-calendar grand slam – only one other player in the open era has won four in a row:  Rod Laver in 1969.  Even without the outright lead in slam titles, there is a reasonable argument that two such accomplishments should make Novak the GOAT.  Neither Federer nor Nadal have accomplished one.  It would raise Nole’s slam total to 16, just one behind Nadal.

On the other hand, if Nadal wins, he raises his slam total to 18, just two behind Federer and three ahead of Djokovic.  That would put Nadal within forseeable reach of the Swiss Maestro.  If he can maintain his dominance on clay, and there is little to suggest he cannot, Federer’s record of 20 could fall within two years.  Of course there is the small matter of Serena Williams’ 23 Open Era slam titles to contend with.

Nadal def. Djokovic

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 21 May 2019

Rank	Player	Odds
1	Nadal	2.1
2	Djokovic	3.25
3	Thiem	5.5
4	Tsitsipas	17
5	Federer	18
6	AZverev	18
7	Wawrinka	34
8	Fognini	41
9	DMedvedev	41
10	Nishikori	41
11	Del Potro	51
12	Cilic	51
13	Khachanov	51
14	Raonic	67
15	Monfils	67
16	Coric	67
17	Schwartzman	67
18	Chung	81
19	Shapovalov	81
20	Dimitrov	81
21	Goffin	81
22	Auger-Aliassime	81
23	Kyrgios	81
24	Edmund	101
25	Cecchinato	101
26	Berdych	101
27	Tsonga	101
28	BautistaAgut	101
29	Munar	101
30	Isner	101
31	Berrettini	101