Barty, Osaka, and Andreescu: WTA 2019 Summary and 2020 Preview
In 2019, women’s tennis fans saw the blossoming of three
young stars: Ashleigh Barty, Naomi
Osaka, and Bianca Andreescu. Osaka burst onto the radar last year by
winning Indian Wells and the US Open.
But it was her victory at the Australian Open and her ascension to the
#1 ranking for 25 weeks that ensured 2018 was not just a flash in the pan. There was some predictable mid-season cooling,
but after the US Open she did not lose, claiming two titles before withdrawing
after one match at the Tour Finals.
Osaka appeared to mature as the year progressed and seems to have settled
into a comfort zone at or near the top of the game. When she’s on she seems unstoppable, sweeping
all before her, including Serena Williams and the sensation of the year,
Andreescu. Osaka was the one to finally
prove Andreescu was fallible, stopping Bianca’s win streak in completed matches
at 27. Osaka is a candidate to be the
new dominant player, a position long held by Serena.
Andreescu’s
breakthrough was one of the most dramatic I’ve seen. Prior to this year she had won only three
tour-level matches, yet heading into the end of year Tour Finals she had the year’s
best win-loss record and the second highest earnings. Bianca began the year at Auckland ranked 152. She played her way through qualifying all the
way to the final, taking out Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams along the
way. By the time the 1000 in Indian
Wells began in March she had racked up a 21-3 win-loss record, including
qualifying. She ripped through seven
matches in the desert taking out four top-twenty opponents, including two
top-tenners. Then she won three matches
in Miami before retiring in the fourth round with a shoulder injury. She rehabbed for two months before attempting
a comeback at Roland Garros. She won one
match and then withdrew, the injury not yet healed. Then she waited another two months before
playing again, this time at home at the 900 in Canada. Remarkably after such a long lay-off, she won
six matches to clinch the title, taking out three top-ten players, including an
ill Serena Williams, who retired in the final.
She then proceeded to take seven matches at the US Open, beating Serena
for real this time, in the final. All
this propelled Andreescu into the #4 ranking spot. It seemed unimaginable at the beginning of
the year.
Ash Barty’s
breakthrough was only slightly less meteoric, but if anything, propelled her
even higher. Barty began the year at
#15. At the end of last year I
considered her in my prediction for 2019’s top ten, but ultimately rejected
her. How wrong I was. She started strongly with a finalist
appearance in Sydney and a quarterfinal at the Australian Open. Then came the 1000 in Miami where she took
out three top-ten opponents en route to the title. Despite clay being her least-accomplished
surface, she took advantage of an upset-ridden French Open (#14 Madison Keys
was the highest ranked player she faced) to claim the title. A week later, she claimed the grass title in
Birmingham and with it the #1 ranking.
There was an understandable let down as she continued the year with strong
to middling results. But then she
resurrected at the end of the year to claim the Tour Finals, and tennis’
largest ever tournament paycheck at $4.4 million. She finishes the year with 24 weeks in the #1
ranking. This is all the more remarkable
considering that she left tennis in 2014, played professional cricket, before
coming back three years ago.
With the rise of Barty, Osaka, and Andreescu, it feels to me
like the first time in a long time that Serena
Williams is no longer the dominant actor in women’s professional
tennis. Serena is certainly still
relevant, but the main arc has, for me, passed to these three young women. Like last year, Serena made two slam finals,
at Wimbledon and the US Open, and like last year, she lost them both. While last year it still seemed that, on her
day, Serena was the best player in the world, this year that no longer seems
the case. Both Osaka and Andreescu own
winning records against Serena.
This doesn’t mean I’m counting Serena out. She may still have a slam title or two left
in the tank. She is the only woman to
make four slam finals in the last two years, while Halep made three, winning
two, and Osaka made and won two. Heading
into the Tour Finals, which she didn’t play, Serena was #5 on the year’s money
list, despite playing only eight tournaments.
When Serena plays she is formidable, and every loss still seems like an
upset. But somehow she’s lost the
ability to close in tournament finals and hasn’t claimed a title in nearly
three years. She hasn’t yet landed in
‘under-dog territory’ when playing the top players, but that may happen in
2020.
The year’s other slam was won by Simona Halep at Wimbledon.
That Halep won on grass and Barty won on clay seems a bizarre reversal. And Halep didn’t eke out the win. She stormed through the Wimbledon draw
dropping only one set, and demolished Serena 2 and 2 in the final playing near
errorless (only 3 unforced), aggressive tennis.
The rest of Halep’s year was typically solid, but unremarkable, claiming
no other titles. Career-wise, Wimbledon
was a huge win for Halep. She’s now a
multi-slam winner, multi-yearend #1, and in the pantheon of Wimbledon
champions. Still only 28, she may well
win another slam or few.
Karolina Pliskova
is surely among the best active players never to win a slam. Pliskova finished at #2 and led the tour with
four tournament victories (tied with Barty), but only one was as high as the
900 level, at Rome.
|
|
2019 Tournament
Victories
|
Points from
tournament finals
|
|
Barty
|
4
|
5925
|
|
Andreescu
|
3
|
4080
|
|
Osaka
|
3
|
3470
|
|
SWilliams
|
0
|
3185
|
|
KaPliskova
|
4
|
2960
|
|
Halep
|
1
|
2955
|
|
Kvitova
|
2
|
2825
|
|
Bertens
|
2
|
2270
|
|
Sabalenka
|
3
|
2185
|
Elina Svitolina
won an unmatched nine titles in 2017-18, but after her spectacular victory at
last year’s Tour Finals, could muster no titles in 2019. She finally made a slam semi-final for the
first time, at Wimbledon, and then followed it up with another at the US
Open. She made the final of the Tour Finals
again, but lost it to Barty. Because of
generally consistent play she finishes at #6.
Petra Kvitova
made a slam final outside of Wimbledon for the first time, in Melbourne, losing
narrowly to Osaka. She raced to an early
lead in the yearly race, making four tournament finals by April, but then
suffered an injury and missed the French and most of the brief grass court
season. For the rest of the year she got
as far as the semis only once more, at the 900 in Wuhan.
Belinda Bencic,
finally recovered from a litany of injuries, re-emerged into the top 10 after a
promising start there as a teenager three years ago. It was wonderful to see her living up to her
potential, although the best may be yet to come. She started the year at #55 in Hobart and had
to play qualifying in St. Petersburg in late January. But then she went on a 12-match win streak
that netted her the 900 in Dubai, and took her to the semis of the 1000 in
Indian Wells. She made slam semis for
the first time, at the US Open, and just nipped into the Tour Finals in eighth
spot by taking the title in Moscow. She
is high on the radar as a potential future slam champion.
Kiki Bertens
rounds out the top ten. She looked like
a threat for the French when she won the 1000 in Madrid on clay and made semis
of the 900 in Rome. The rest of her year
was solid if unremarkable.
Sofia Kenin has
risen to #14 from #52 a year ago. The
20-year old won three tournaments at the 280 level and should threaten the
top-ten in 2020. She claimed wins over
Barty, Osaka, SWilliams, Andreescu, Bencic, Keys, and Svitolina in 2019.
Aryna Sabalenka,
age 21, matched her 2018 ranking of #11 but did climb into the top-ten for 25
weeks in 2019. She suffered a sophomore
slump perhaps, especially at the slams, but was righting the ship by year’s
end, claiming the 900 in Wuhan and the second tier Elite Finals 750. She could entrench in the top 10 for 2020.
Marketa Vondrousova,
age 20, had a promising start to the year, making quarters at both Indian Wells
and Miami along with two 280 finals.
Then she marched to the French Open finals, racking up a 28-7 match
record for the year thus far. But a
month later after losing at Wimbledon, she had to abandon the remainder of the
year, undergoing wrist surgery. Hopefully she returns strong for 2020.
Coco Gauff rose
807 ranking spots to #68. Just 15 years
old, she is not yet eligible to play a full schedule on tour but did make it
into six tour main draws. Her notable
breakthrough was at Wimbledon, making the fourth round amid much fanfare. Then she cracked the top 100 in October at
Linz by taking the title over former French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko. She displayed power, variety of shot, and
tactical maturity beyond her years and looks to have a bright future.
Amanda Anismova burst
into prominence by making the fourth round at the Australian Open. The 17-year old then won the 280 title in
Bogota in April and went all the way to the French semis, taking out defending
champ Halep, before losing a close three-setter to Barty. However the second half of her season was
considerably cooler as she was beset by injuries and then the passing of her
father. She played only a few
matches. Hopefully she comes back in
2020 strong and determined. Now 18 and
#24, she achieved a career high rank of 21.
Karolina Muchova currently
holds down the #21 position, up 124 spots from one year ago. The 23-year old improved significantly,
taking the 280 title in Seoul and claiming 430 ranking points for making the
quarters at Wimbledon.
Dayana Yastremska,
age 19, raised her ranking 38 spots to #22.
She made the fourth round at Wimbledon (240 pts) and claimed two 280
titles – at Hua Hin, Thailand and at Strasbourg. She has taken on the estimable Sascha Bajin
as coach, who saw Osaka to two slam titles, and that vote of confidence bodes
well for Yastremska’s future.
Elena Rybakina is
20 and shot up 154 spots to #36. Surely
one of the youngest mothers on tour, she won three ITF Futures event in the
early part of the year and graduated to the main tour, claiming the 280 title
in Bucharest and notching a victory over Halep in late September.
Another promising youngster is Iga Swiatek, age 18, rank #60.
She made the final of Lugano in April when she was still 17, and then
the fourth round at Roland Garros. She
curtailed her year after the US Open due to a foot injury. I wish her luck in her recovery.
Several established stars had some rough patches this year. Three-time slam champ, Angelique Kerber, dropped from #2 to #20. Sloane
Stephens fell from #6 to #25. Garbine Muguruza, who owns two slams,
was #2 two years ago, but was #18 last year, and #36 now. Caroline
Wozniacki dropped from #3 all the way to #38. Like Muguruza, Jelena Ostapenko continued down-trending over the last two years,
from #7 to #44. Victoria Azarenka didn’t change much from last year at #50, but the
two time slammer and former yearend #1 is well below her peak. Likewise, is Venus Williams, #53... but at 39 years old, the seven-time slam
winner can do whatever she likes. Svetlana Kuznetsova improves by nearly halving
her ranking to #54 this year. She is 34
and will not be expected to have many heroics left in the tank. Sam
Stosur is at #96, and Maria
Sharapova, at #136, rounds out this list of ten active players who hold a
slam title. The other six active
slammers are all in the top ten.
Of this group, Ostapenko, Stephens, and Muguruza are the
youngest, and should have the best chance to rise back into contention. I won’t count out Kerber, either.
2019 Rankings
The WTA top 10 looks perfectly reasonable to me, but here’s
where I thought they would end up when I guessed at the end of last year.
|
2019 WTA Rank
|
Player
|
2018 WTA Rank
|
Charles guess
from end of 2018
|
|
1
|
Barty
|
(15)
|
#20
|
|
2
|
KaPliskova
|
(8)
|
#14
|
|
3
|
Osaka
|
(5)
|
#5
|
|
4
|
Halep
|
(1)
|
#2
|
|
5
|
Andreescu
|
(178)
|
>23
|
|
6
|
Svitolina
|
(4)
|
#8
|
|
7
|
Kvitova
|
(7)
|
#11
|
|
8
|
Bencic
|
(37)
|
>23
|
|
9
|
Bertens
|
(9)
|
#18
|
|
10
|
SWilliams
|
(16)
|
#3
|
Only four of my predicted top ten actually showed up in this
year’s top ten. Kerber, Wozniacki,
Stephens, Sabalenka, Muguruza, and Kasatkina were my other guesses, so take
what comes next with a grain of salt.
Predicting 2020
I love making predictions, although I am frequently
wrong. Fortunately, I‘m not attached to
the outcomes...
As I said off the top, it looks to me that Osaka, Andreescu,
and Barty were the three biggest stars of 2019, and I expect that will continue
in 2020. Additionally, Serena Williams
and Simona Halep must be added. I expect
these five players to be the biggest contenders in the coming year. They are also the players who claimed the most
points at slams this year.
|
|
Points won at
slams 2019
|
|
SWilliams
|
3160
|
|
Barty
|
2910
|
|
Halep
|
2740
|
|
Osaka
|
2380
|
|
Andreescu
|
2140
|
|
Svitolina
|
2120
|
|
Konta
|
1710
|
|
Kvitova
|
1610
|
Australian Open
SWilliams and Osaka have both won it before and are my top
two contenders. I give a nose to Osaka
as favourite. Barty, because she’s at
home, Andreescu, because she loves hard courts, and Halep because she nearly
won it two years ago, are my next favourites, in that order. Kvitova came oh-so-close last year. KaPliskova has a game well-suited for the
surface but may have nerves at the slams.
Bencic is also dangerous, especially on hard courts. Svitolina is too good for her slam results,
but really picked it up last year. Will
she break-through in 2020? Red clay at
the French is probably a more favourable surface for her. Joanna Konta has a spectacular 11-4 win-loss
record in Melbourne.
At Bet365, the bookies have Serena Williams as their
favourite, followed by Andreescu, Barty, Halep, Osaka, KaPliskova, and
Svitolina.
Roland Garros
The 2018 champion, Halep, seems to thrive on clay and be the
best clay-courter of her generation. She’s
my favourite. Serena Williams has three
Lenglen cups on her worst surface. Third
for me is the defending champion, Barty – I’m not sure I believe in her clay
cred yet, but it’s hard to argue with results. For fourth, I’ll take
Svitolina... and then, Andreescu and Osaka.
Neither have many clay wins but there just too good to be
over-looked. Kvitova and Bertens have
solid clay pasts, and both Anisimova and Vondrousova were pretty convincing in
their deep runs last year.
At Bet365, the bookies have Halep as their favourite,
followed by Serena Williams, Bertens, Barty, Muguruza, Andreescu, Stephens, and
Osaka.
Wimbledon
With 11 finals, including 7 titles, Serena is still my
favourite for Wimbledon. Andreescu and
Barty claim to like grass, so I’ll take them next. Close on their heels is last year’s champ, Halep,
then the insanely talented, Osaka.
Two-time winner, Kvitova, should not be overlooked, nor 2018 champ,
Kerber. Judging by their games styles, I’d
think Pliskova should be favoured over Svitolina, but it’s Svitolina who’s been
to the semis before, so she gets my 8th spot at Wimbledon.
At Bet365, the bookies have Serena Williams as their
favourite, followed by Halep, Barty, KaPliskova, Andreescu, Osaka, and Kvitova.
US Open
It’s tough to pick between Serena, Andreescu, and Osaka, all
recent USO champs. I give the nod to Osaka who is on an 11-match win streak on
hard courts. Serena is next for her
consistency in reaching four slam finals in the last two years, then
Andreescu. I’ll take Barty in fourth,
she seems to like hard courts and doesn’t have the pressure of playing at home
in Australia. Next I’ll take this year’s
semi-finalists, Svitolina and Bencic. Karolina
Pliskova deserves mention for being a former finalist at the USO, and I’ve been
impressed by Kenin’s performance on hard.
Finalists from 2017, Stephens and Keys, are both due for a better year in
2020.
At Bet365, the bookies have Serena Williams as their
favourite, followed by Andreescu, Barty, Halep, Osaka, Svitolina, Bencic, and
KaPliskova.
Yearend Top Ten
Prediction
Of course, there’s a whole WTA Tour outside of the slams,
and performance there is the bulk of what determines a player’s ranking. I think Osaka
is the most likely to claim the top spot in 2020. I think 2019 was a year of adjustment for
her, getting used to her position at the top.
But now I believe she is comfortable there, and she has about the most
potent game and ball skills of anyone around.
If her head is in place, she looks like the default pick for the top.
One or two slam titles in 2020 would not be a surprise.
The year that Andreescu
had in 2019 was completely unexpected and completely stellar. But like Osaka in 2019, I think Bianca will
need a year to adjust in 2020. She will
start below #2, but I think she has a decent shot at ending up there – especially
if she can replicate her tour-leading winning percentage. She probably has a 50-50 chance of claiming a
slam in 2020.
This year’s #1, Barty,
showed just what a high-level and dependable player she can be by claiming the
yearend championships to add to her slam trophy at the French. Her varied shot selection and strong mental
game translate well on every surface. I’d
give her a 50-50 chance at a slam title in the coming year.
Simona Halep has
won a slam in each of the last two years and, despite two prior years at the
top, 2019 was like a sophomore adjustment period after her maiden slam in
2018. I think she will be a strong
threat for another slam title in 2020, probably at Roland Garros.
Serena Williams
can still be the best player in the world, on her day. But finding those days is getting tougher for
the 38-year old. She’s given herself
four chances in slam finals in the last two years to claim that record 24th
major. I think she has an excellent
chance to get there in 2020. Question
is, if she does, how long till Nadal surpasses her?
In #6 I put Elina
Svitolina. She had a tough year in
2019, claiming no titles, after winning an unmatched nine in the two previous
years. But she significantly improved at
the slams. I think she’ll find her way
back into the tournament winner’s circle in 2020, and give her a 10-25% chance
to win a slam.
The uncertainty around Bencic’s
coming campaign concerns her ability to last, either physically or
mentally. Will she continue to build on
the gains she made this year? I’m voting
an eyes-averted, ‘yes,’ and slot her in for #7 next year.
Kvitova has
started the last two years going great guns, blitzing her way to titles and
finals in the first half of the year, but then doing a strong fade in the
second half. Chances are she does it
again, which should be enough for about a #8 finish.
After four years finishing in the top 10 and at #2 this
year, it’s logical not to bypass Pliskova
for a spot in the top ten. Of her four
titles, one came at the 900/1000 level, in Rome. She made her third slam semi-final this year,
in Melbourne, but was not in the biggest finals. As time has passed, I wonder if she’s lost
confidence on the biggest stages?
Filling in the #10 spot is always the hardest: there are so
many eligible contenders – here are my picks, in reverse order. With two slam titles in her pocket, Muguruza should be in consideration,
but she has looked rather dismal the last two years. If she’s going to perform a comeback, now
would be a good time. Similarly, we know
Ostapenko can win a slam, but where
is the consistency? At age 24, Madison Keys surely has some good tennis left and may yet contend
for a slam. Johanna Konta had a
better year, reaching yearend #12, the semis at the French, and the quarters at
both Wimbledon and the US Open. Anisimova
also made semis at the French and at age 18 has a world of potential left to
uncover. Likewise, Kenin did nothing but climb this year and could well make the top
10 in 2019. Kiki Bertens has been #9 the last two years. Kerber recovered from a #21 ranking to #2 in 2018, so maybe she can
bounce back again. Sabalenka spent some time in the top ten this year, and is knocking
hard on the door with two years at #11.
But in the end my pick for next year’s #10 is Sloane Stephens. No question
she has the talent. She got married this
year and that may have taken her focus away from tennis. But she’s shown before that she can comeback
stronger than ever, and I’ll look for her to have a much better year in 2020.
|
Charles’ 2020
Projection
|
Player
|
2019 WTA Rank
|
|
1
|
Osaka
|
3
|
|
2
|
Andreescu
|
5
|
|
3
|
Barty
|
1
|
|
4
|
Halep
|
4
|
|
5
|
SWilliams
|
10
|
|
6
|
Svitolina
|
6
|
|
7
|
Bencic
|
8
|
|
8
|
Kvitova
|
7
|
|
9
|
KaPliskova
|
2
|
|
10
|
Stephens
|
25
|
With the young players taking over the top, another exciting
year ahead awaits.
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