Aus Open 2020 – Men’s Draw Preview

Aus Open 2020 – Men’s Draw Preview

Charles Friesen
18 Jan 2020

Will someone other than the Big Three of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic rise up and claim this Australian Open?  The Big Three have won the last 12 slams and 51 of the last 59.  That’s 15 years of dominance.  They have been interrupted on the slam podium only by Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Marin Cilic, all of whom are in there 30’s now.  Can someone born in the 1990’s or later win a slam? 

The signals of last year are positive.  Thiem, Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Medvedev have multiple wins over the Big Three and are entrenched in the top ten.  Berrettini, Shapovalov, and Rublev are making strong headway; and there are teenagers on the horizon like Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner.  With the draws released, how did the chips fall?  Who is likely to win some matches, go deep, or contend for the title?

First Quarter

Rafael Nadal is the top seed and his first few rounds look unthreatening.  But he could face Nick Kyrgios (seeded 23) in the fourth round.  Kyrgios is a top-level talent who sports three wins over Nadal and knows how to get under Rafa’s skin.  To get there, Kyrgios may have to get through Karen Khachanov (16).  Khachanov was Kyrgios’ opponent in Nick’s record-setting meltdown in Cincinnati that netted him $113,000 in fines.  Khachanov is a much less-threatening 0-7 versus Nadal.  If Kyrgios can somehow get there, a meeting with Nadal would be a toss-up and must-see viewing.

Also in this quarter are Gael Monfils (10), Felix Auger-Aliassime (20), former slam finalist Kevin Anderson, and #5 seed, Dominic Thiem.  F-double-A has looked mostly lost in the last six months, although he did just win two rounds in Adelaide.   Monfils arrives in unknown form, but his depth of ability means he can never be discounted.  Anderson is on the road back after missing the last half of 2019.  His draw is not great but he could be a thorn for Thiem.

Thiem had a stellar 2019 that saw him claim 5 titles and runners-up at Roland Garros and the Tour Finals.  He has four wins over Nadal, all on clay, where they have met 12 times.  Their lone hard court meeting was a 7-6 in the fifth affair at the US Open in 2018.  Thiem has not typically been strong at this time of year so I give Nadal the edge, but if Thiem finds his range, it could be a blockbuster.

Nadal d. Thiem

Second Quarter

With a strong showing at the ATP Cup, Daniil Medvedev just pipped Thiem for the #4 seeding. Medvedev had a spectacular six-tournament run after Wimbledon of always making the final round.  It netted him three titles, and a trip to the US Open final where he went down in a hard-fought five-setter to Nadal.  Then he ended the year with four straight losses.  But he’s been righting the ship and only Djokovic could stop him in Sydney. His draw could get tricky with Tsonga (28) in the third round, and Isner (19) or Wawrinka (15) in the fourth.  On the youth side, Kecmanovic, Tiafoe, and Popyrin are nearby, but I expect the veterans to prevail.

The next highest seed in this quarter is Alexander Zverev (7). Zverev is often poo-pooed as under-performing at the slams, but he actually has a better slam match-winning record than Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Berrettini, Shapovalov, or Rublev. Regardless, his three straight losses to fellow young guns at the ATP Cup were not encouraging.

Meanwhile, Andrey Rublev (17) has already won two 250 tournaments this year.  Can he sustain this high level?  His draws in those wins were not very tough.  He could run into David Goffin (11) in round three.  Goffin had a solid six months to end 2019 and just upset Nadal at the ATP Cup.  He will be a challenge for anyone.

DMedvedev d. Goffin

Third Quarter

This is Federer’s (3) quarter and the next highest seed here is Matteo Berrettini (8).  Also here is 21-year old Ugo Humbert who just claimed the title in Auckland with impressive wins over Shapovalov, Isner, and Paire.  Denis Shapovalov (13) has jumped a level in the last six months and is knocking on the door of the top ten.  He could meet Jannik Sinner, the 18-year old sensation from Italy, in round two; or Grigor Dimitrov (18) in the third.  Dimitrov is on the rise again, after troughing in the first half of 2019.  Federer should surpass all these to face Berrettini in the quarter-finals.  The hard-hitting Berrettini is in a soft section with Fognini (12), Pella (22), and Coric (23) as seeds.

Federer d. Berrettini

Fourth Quarter

Here resides the inimitable Novak Djokovic (2), seven-time and defending champion.  The first seed he could meet, Daniel Evans (30), has been steadily climbing in the last year and has already beaten De Minaur and Goffin this month.  But a greater challenge awaits in a likely showdown with Roberto Bautista Agut (9) or Stefanos Tsitsipas (6) in the quarters.  The two met last year in the quarters, a tense four-setter that ended in a tie-breaker for Tsitsipas.  Both players have jumped significantly in the rankings since then.  Bautista Agut just rattled off six straight victories at the ATP Cup, and although it was mostly second tier competition, his list of scalps included the talented Kyrgios and the hot hand of Dusan Lajovic.

Tsitsipas has been touted by a number of observers as the next most likely to win a slam and break the strangle-hold of the Big Three.  But if he has to take down consecutively Bautista Agut, Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal it may be too tall an ask, this time around.  He seems to possess the belief and the talent to win against any opponent, no matter how formidable.  Will he take the next step after his impressive run to the Tour Finals title?

Djokovic d. Tsitsipas

Semi-finals

Daniil Medvedev has not yet solved the Nadal riddle in three matches, but the last two have been nail-bitingly close.  The quick surface in Melbourne probably helps the Russian, but it won’t lessen Nadal’s incredible mental toughness and knack for staying in points and then hitting winners.

Nadal  d. Medvedev

The last meeting between Federer and Djokovic was a straight set beat-down from Federer that looked like revenge for the agonizing fifth set 13-12 loss the Swiss suffered at Wimbledon.  With the score settled, can Roger utilize the quick conditions to break through Novak’s astonishing defense?

Djokovic d. Federer

Final

Progress in the GOAT race will be at stake in every slam for the rest of the Big Three’s careers.  In Melbourne, Federer could pull two ahead of Nadal, Nadal could tie Federer, or Djokovic could pull within two of Nadal and three of Federer.

Nadal and Andy Murray have lost every final but one at the Aus Open for the last ten years.  With seven titles for Djokovic, one more than Federer, the conditions seem to favour Novak.  Nadal looked shaky in losing to Goffin last week and struggling against De Minaur.  Meanwhile Djokovic looked invincible in straight-setting Nadal.

Djokovic d. Nadal

Journalists picks

Djokovic – 8 votes – Tignor (Tennis.com), Pantic (Tennis.com), Drucker (Tennis.com), Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), Hammond (Tennis.com), Sanford (Tennis.com), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Sunderland (Bleacher Report)

Tsitsipas – 2 votes – Flink (Tennis.com), Ndebele (Tennis.com)

Nadal – 1 vote – McGrogan (Tennis.com)

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 18 Jan 2020

1	Djokovic	2.2
2	Nadal	5
3	DMedvedev	8.5
4	Federer	11
5	Tsitsipas	13
6	Thiem	21
7	Kyrgios	26
8	Shapovalov	41
9	AZverev	41
10	BautistaAgut	51
11	Rublev	51
12	Berrettini	67
13	Cilic	67
14	Dimitrov	67
15	Wawrinka	67
16	Goffin	81
17	Khachanov	81
18	KAnderson	101
19	AugerAliassime	101
20	Coric	101
21	Raonic	101
22	Schwartzman	101
23	Sinner	101
24	CarrenoBusta	151
25	Edmund	151
26	Fognini	151
27	Hurkacz	151
28	Isner	151
29	Monfils	151
30	Tsonga	151
31	Evans	201
32	Fritz	201