Aus Open 2020 – Women’s Draw Preview

Aus Open 2020 – Women’s Draw Preview

Charles Friesen
18 Jan 2020

Is Serena Williams still the favourite?  Last year Osaka, Barty, Halep, and Andreescu stole the show at the slams.  Combining all four of their odds, they would have to be favoured over Serena in the coming year.  But at this Australian Open, the bookies are still putting up numbers that show Serena is the top pick.  Unfortunately Andreescu is out with injury.  Will the rest of the field be able to stop Serena’s quest for slam #24?

First Quarter

Ash Barty is the top seed and has created a nice points cushion at the top of the rankings.  She’s far enough ahead that she can’t lose the #1 spot at this slam.  She just won the tournament in Adelaide and looks in good form.  But she could have a challenging third round if she faces Elena Rybakina (seeded #29), who this year has already made the final in Shenzhen and taken the title in Hobart.

If she makes it to the quarters, Barty could face Madison Keys (10) or last year’s finalist, Petra Kvitova (7).  It speaks to the depth in the game that all three of these players are contenders for the title.

Barty d. Kvitova

Second Quarter

This loaded quarter features the bookies’ top two favourites, in defending champion Naomi Osaka (3) and seven-time champ, Serena Williams (8).  Their meeting would easily be worthy of a final.  And there are other notable names here as well; not the least of which include Venus Williams and burgeoning talent Coco Gauff, who are slated for a first-rounder.  We also find Sloane Stephens (24) with a tricky opener against Hobart runner-up Shuai Zhang.  Their winner could meet the tenacious focus of Sofia Kenin (14) in round three, and then Osaka in the fourth.

Johanna Konta (12) had a standout year in the slams in 2019, making quarters or better at the French, Wimbledon, and US Open.  In the third round she may get the winner of Yastremska and Wozniacki.  Winner here just two years ago, Wozniacki says this is her last tournament.  Dayana Yastremska (23) has just hired Sascha Bajin as coach and seems intent on climbing to the top echelon.  She lost in tears to Serena last year here, and may suffer the same fate in the fourth.

If it comes down to Osaka and Serena, anything is possible. Osaka leads the head to head 2-1, but Serena claimed the last victory.  By taking Auckland last week, Serena is back in the winner’s circle for the first time in three years.  Both players are capable of elevating their play to stratospheric levels and I think both are hungry.  As long as Serena does not get too intense, I give her a slight edge.

SWilliams d. Osaka

Third Quarter

Maria Sharapova was once the biggest draw in women’s tennis, but she turns 33 this year and with a ranking in the hundreds, it’s clear she never recovered from the doping scandal.  Can she find a way back?  Aryna Sabalenka (11) won’t make it easy.  The hard-hitting 21 year-old looked strong at the end of 2019, but has a thorny opener against former top-tenner Carla Suarez Navarro, who has made seven slam quarter-finals over the years.  Should Sabalenka survive, she could meet Belinda Bencic (6) in the fourth.  Bencic has shown she can beat anyone, but seems to get overwhelmed occasionally and can’t find her A-game.

Across the quarter we find last year’s semi-finalist Danielle Collins (26), and Karolina Muchova (20) who is still climbing the ranks.  Also here is Simona Halep (4).  Halep was a finalist hin Melbourne two years ago.  Her decisive victory at Wimbledon last year shows she must never be counted out, but her straight set loss to Sabalenka this week leaves some question marks.  Sabalenka has never had a really deep slam run, but with so much talent, is she choking or still just growing up?

Halep d. Sabalenka

Fourth Quarter

The former slam champs in this section, Kerber (17), Kuznetsova, and Muguruza, seem far from their best tennis.  That may open the door for youngsters like Amanda Anisimova (21) and Marketa Vondrousova (15) to go deep.  Both made the French semis last year, with Vondrousova going on to the final.  But there are some more established talents here as well, like Kiki Bertens (9), Elina Svitolina (5), and Karolina Pliskova (2). 

Svitolina had a strong second half in 2019 with semis at both Wimbledon and the US Open, and a runner-up at the Tour Finals.  But her distressing one-and-one loss to Collins last week gives pause.  Was it just a hiccup?  In much more convincing form is Pliskova, who took the title in Brisbane with victories over Osaka and Keys.  I remain unconvinced of Pliskova’s ability to close-out big matches, but she looks like the strongest bet for this quarter.

KaPliskova d. Svitolina

Semis

SWilliams d. Barty

KaPliskova d. Halep

Final

This tournament does not feel like the free-for-all that slams two or three years ago did.  There is a pool of five or six favourites from which the winner is likely to come, with maybe two or three others splashing near pool-side.  Barty, Serena, and Osaka are heavy favourites in the top half, with a nod to Kvitova as well.  The bottom feels a bit more open.  Halep has not been great since Wimbledon, and Pliskova is wearing the dubious label of ‘best never to win a slam.’  So a surprise finalist from the bottom would not surprise. Which sounds oxy-moronic. 

If my prediction comes true, Serena will have a chance to avenge last year’s loss here to Pliskova, and the squandering of four match points, in no small part because of an ankle injury.  Serena seems to have been sub-par in losing four slam finals in the last two years.  But then again, by making four slam finals in that time, she did something no other woman has done.  If she triumphs here she will tie the all time record for slam victories at 24.

SWilliams d. KaPliskova

Journalists picks

SWilliams – 4 votes – Pantic (Tennis.com), Drucker (Tennis.com), Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated)

Osaka – 3 votes – Tignor (Tennis.com), Flink (Tennis.com), Sanford (Tennis.com)

KaPliskova – 3 votes – Ndebele (Tennis.com), Hammond (Tennis.com), Sunderland (Bleacher Report)

Bencic – 1 vote – McGrogan (Tennis.com)

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 18 Jan 2020

1	SWilliams	5
2	Osaka	9
3	Barty	9
4	KaPliskova	12
5	Halep	12
6	Sabalenka	17
7	Kvitova	21
8	Keys	21
9	Svitolina	26
10	Yastremska	34
11	Collins	34
12	Bencic	34
13	Muguruza	41
14	Kerber	41
15	Kenin	41
16	Bertens	41
17	Anisimova	41
18	Vondrousova	51
19	Rybakina	51
20	Wozniacki	67
21	Vekic	67
22	Stephens	67
23	Mertens	67
24	Gauff	67
25	Alexandrova	67
26	Muchova	81
27	Kontaveit	81
28	Konta	81
29	SZhang	101
30	Swiatek	101
31	Sharapova	101
32	Garcia	101