The Alpha – WTA 2020 and predictions

 

23 Nov 2020

Who’s the Queen Bee?  Not, who’s number one, but who is the alpha? The top dog?  Who is the player to beat?  Who is the de facto #1?

For years that space has been occupied by Serena Williams.  Even when she wasn’t officially number one, she was still the best; the player everyone wanted to face, and the player who was favoured to win every match she played.  She was the standard bookies’ pick.

Who is the alpha in 2020?  Probably the number one for 2020 is Sophia Kenin, because she accumulated the most points in the calendar year.  However, Ashleigh Barty is the ‘official’ #1 on the WTA computer with the weird covid rankings that count results from most of the last two years.  But I’m not convinced either of them is the alpha, the quote unquote ‘best’ player around. 

Last year in 2019, the alpha was probably still Serena.  When Bianca Andreescu won the US Open that year she beat Serena in the final, and it felt to me like Bianca was taking out the most formidable opponent she could face by triumphing over Williams.  Certainly the bookies had Serena as their alpha, she had the lowest odds of winning pre-tournament. 

It appears that Serena has been the Alpha for about the last 12 years, since 2008.  Some of those years Serena barely played any matches, like 2011 when she was injured most of the year but lost to Stosur in the US Open final, or 2017 when she won the Australian Open while pregnant.  But she was always the player to beat.  Even when she wasn’t yearend number one, like in 2016 when it was Kerber or 2018 when it was Halep, Serena still seemed the best player around and still got the nod from the bookies as the favourite.

This concept of alpha as distinct from #1 has become more obvious in recent times.  Since the computer rankings for women began in 1975, there have been many years when the name atop the computer at yearend was not the general pick for #1 for the year.  The computer aggregates accomplishment, and even though the formula has changed over the years, there is, especially now, an element in the rankings that favours ‘the more you play, the more you can raise your ranking.’  The ranking formula has certainly been refined over the years to reflect the importance of the biggest stages in tennis, but finishing atop the computer always requires that a lot of tournaments are played.

Before computer rankings in 1975, yearend rankings (often just the top ten) were generally determined by panels of journalists or national tennis associations.  Often it was clear that the woman who had accomplished the most on the court that year was also the alpha, so naming the yearend #1 was relatively easy.  But there were some years when the alpha didn’t play much, and there were other players who had more and greater accomplishments.  An example is Helen Wills in the 1930’s who was named #1 for all six years of the 1930’s that she played.  In none of those years did she play more than 30 matches, and in one year, 1935, she played only 15 matches.  Other women won far more tournaments, but because she won big, usually Wimbledon which was considered the de facto world championship at the time, she was named yearend #1.  Looking back we can say that Wills was undoubtedly the alpha during those years, as her 158 match undefeated streak attests.  She may have been the best player, but she likely did not deserve #1 for many of those years, when Helen Jacobs for example, won many more tournaments.

It turns out that Serena has earned yearend #1 only five times (2002, 09, 13, 14, 15), but she has been named yearend #1 by the WTA seven times (add 2008, 12).  And I would say a case could made that she be considered #1 for nine total years, adding in 2003 and 2010.  Because she played a limited schedule in these four additional years, she didn’t accumulate enough points to be #1 on the computer, but the quality of her play was so high, and she accumulated enough trophies that typical observers, like those very knowledgeable people handing out the WTA yearend awards, thought she should be #1.

But even beyond my expanded list of nine yearend #1s, I would argue that Serena has been the alpha in tennis for 15 years – every year from 2002-2019, except for three years from 2005-07 when I would give the nod for alpha to Justine Henin.  Of course, other people may have other opinions, and I would love to engage in friendly debate about this with anyone.

So that brings us to 2020.  Given her accumulation of the most WTA points in 2020, I am firmly in the camp that Kenin is #1 for this year.  However, because covid wreaked havoc with the schedule and some players didn’t feel comfortable playing, the WTA computer ranking was adjusted and it shows that Barty is #1 at the end of 2020, same as last year.  But Barty won only 13 matches and 1601 points this year, and only one tournament, the medium-sized 470 in Adelaide.  Meanwhile, Kenin amassed 24 wins and 3934 points for the year, gaining two trophies, including the Australian Open, and she finished runner-up at another slam, the French Open.

So I think Kenin deserves #1 for the year based on her accumulated accomplishments.  But I actually think Barty might still be ‘better’ than Kenin, more alpha, if you will.  But I don’t think Barty is THE alpha.  Instead, the candidates for alpha in 2020 are, in my opinion, Halep, Serena, and Osaka.

Simona Halep was computer #1 for 2017 and 2018.  That’s the kind of long term residency that alphas typically establish at the top of the game.  In 2019 Halep was only #4, but she won Wimbledon that year and slaughtered the reigning alpha, Serena, in the final.  This year in 2020, she finishes at #2 on the computer, #3 in the race, and she put together 23 wins, built around a 17-match win streak that included three titles.  Her winning percentage for the year is unsurpassed.

Winning record of top players 2020	Wins-losses	Ratio
Halep	23-3	7.67
Osaka	16-3	5.33
Barty	11-3	3.67
SWilliams	17-5	3.40
Kvitova	20-6	3.33
Muguruza	23-7	3.29
Azarenka	18-6	3.00
Rybakina	29-10	2.90
Sabalenka	29-10	2.90
Swiatek	14-5	2.80
Brady	25-9	2.78
Kenin	24-9	2.67

 

Halep was indeed the favourite of the bookies for the 2020 French Open on clay, and is by the slightest of margins over Swiatek, the bookies’ favourite for the 2021 French.  But on other surfaces that is not the case. For 2021 Wimbledon on grass she is just a whisker behind Barty, but at the Aus and US Opens on hard courts, the most common surface on the tour, she is only fifth.  So aside from clay, the bookies are not treating Halep as the alpha, which, while not definitive, indicates something.

Of course Serena, alpha for the last 12 years by my estimation, should not be overlooked as a candidate for top dog.  But Serena hasn’t won a slam in nearly four years and she hasn’t seemed able to get it done in the latter rounds of big tournaments for the last three years.  At the US Open this year, it didn’t seem to me that the woman to beat was Serena.  Instead it was Naomi Osaka. 

It was also Osaka who got the shortest odds from the bookies for the US Open.  She is the only woman to win three slams in the last three years.  Increasingly it seems that when she is on she can’t be beaten.  It was Osaka who finally ended Andreescu’s 27-match winning streak in completed matches last year.  Osaka’s powerful game seems invincible when she is firing, capable of hitting even Serena off the court.  Osaka may be ranked #3 now, but I believe she is the new alpha in women’s tennis.

It seemed to me that 2019 was a year of consolidation for Osaka.  I expected that 2020 would be the year of her emergence as the top dog.  But despite only playing 19 matches in this abbreviated year, her ascent happened anyway. 

Will Osaka further consolidate her alpha position in 2021?  During the period of transition from one alpha to another, from Serena to Osaka if I’m right, is when the new alpha is most vulnerable to assault from other pretenders to the throne.  2021 promises to be an interesting year in this regard.  Will Halep, Barty, or precocious Andreescu believe they can challenge for the top.  Do any of them have the tools to actually take down Osaka consistently?  And what about Iga Swiatek.  Her deadly game looked clean and powerful at Roland Garros.  However Swiatek has just hatched. I expect she will need at least a year to develop self-belief, if her results continue to show she belongs at the top.  And then there’s Kenin.  Her biggest weapon is her incredible mental toughness, but I think her game is too limited for a successful tenure as alpha.

 

Yearend Top Ten

Because of the changes to the ranking formula caused by covid, the ‘yearly Race’ rankings are different from the WTA yearend rankings for 2020.  I believe strongly that the Race rankings are the best reflection of 2020 accomplishments since they consider only what occurred in 2020.  The WTA rankings, which consider most of the last two years, likely reflect fair practise for seeding – considering that some of the best players played very little in 2020, but it is the Race rankings that I adopt as my own for 2020.

Yearend Top Ten

Charles’ ranking	My 2019 prediction		2020 Race	Race points	WTA 2019 ranking		WTA 2020 ranking
1	14	Kenin	1	3934	14		1 Barty
2	1	Osaka	2	2900	3		2 Halep
3	4	Halep	3	2770	4		3 Osaka
4	>27	Azarenka	4	2767	50		4 Kenin
5	>27	Swiatek	5	2432	60		5 Svitolina
6	11	Sabalenka	6	2420	11		6 KaPliskova
7	8	Kvitova	7	2321	7		7 Andreescu
8	19	Muguruza	8	2310	36		8 Kvitova
9	>27	Mertens	9	1886	17		9 Bertens
10	26	Rybakina	10	1732	37		10 SWilliams

 

Kenin had the best year in 2020, winning the Australian Open and making the finals of the French.  She also captured the small 280 tournament in Lyon.  More than a thousand points behind her is Osaka at #2 in the race. Osaka won the US Open and gave a walkover to Azarenka in the final of “Cincy” – which was actually played at the US Open site.

Only three members of last year’s top ten feature in this year’s Race top ten – Osaka, Halep, and Kvitova.  Seven of the top eight this year have won at least one slam title, and that doesn’t include either Williams sister.  There are five new entrants to this year’s top ten that have never featured in a previous yearend top ten – Kenin, Swiatek, Sabalenka, Mertens, and Rybakina.

Elena Rybakina appeared in the most finals this year – five, but Halep and Sabalenka won the most titles – three.  Surprisingly, this is not the first year that the most titles won at the tour level for the year is three.  It occurred in 2009 when six women won three, but none could make it to four.

 

Titles and finals in 2020

	2020 titles	2020 finals	Points from finals
Kenin	2	3	3580
Osaka	1	2	2585
Azarenka	1	3	2505
Swiatek	1	1	2000
Halep	3	3	1650
Sabalenka	3	3	1650
Muguruza	0	1	1300
Rybakina	1	5	1250
KaPliskova	1	2	1055

 

Predictions for 2021

Given my opening monologue it’s not surprising I predict that Osaka will be #1 in 2021- assuming we get a more normal tournament schedule.  Because of her consistency I pick Halep for #2 next year – she’s made four slam finals in the last four years.  At #3 I predict Barty.  She’s also shown a lot of consistency and drive to stay at the top.  What will her return be like in Australia after 10 months away?  Kenin was very impressive in 2020.  She doesn’t have a huge game but her powers of concentration are formidable. 

For #5 I make a leap of faith and hope that Swiatek will re-find the easy and clean power she showed at the French.  #6 is even more of a punt – on Andreescu.  She didn’t play at all in 2020, but was so impressive in 2019 I can’t ignore her talent.  Hopefully she returns to us in full form.   For #7, I predict Kvitova who has finished between #s 4 and 8 seven times in the WTA yearend rankings.  #8 goes to Aryna Sabalenka who won three tournaments this year.  For #9 I’ll take Svitolina who nabbed two 280 titles in 2020.  For #10, I simply cannot bypass Serena Williams.  She didn’t win a lot this year but her match-winning percentage was still fourth highest on tour.

Predicted top ten for 2021

	Player
1	Osaka
2	Halep
3	Barty
4	Kenin
5	Swiatek
6	Andreescu
7	Kvitova
8	Sabalenka
9	Svitolina
10	SWilliams

 

In the 11-20 slots I predict we will see Victoria Azarenka,  Karolina Pliskova whose best results this year were the Rome 900 final and the 470 title in Brisbane, Muguruza who made the Aus Open finals, Mertens, Bencic, US Open semi-finalist Jennifer Brady, Rybakina, Keys, Bertens, and Anisimova – in roughly that order.  For 21-30, I pick Jabeur, Martic Yastremska, Kerber, Konta, Vondrousova, Sakkari, Gauff, Alexandrova, and Kontaveit – but that is all rather speculative.

 

Slam Predictions

There is still some doubt about whether the Australian Open will go forward – and if it does, will the field be severely depleted because of Australia’s restrictive quarantine regulations?  Assuming all is a go, my pick for the title is Osaka – I think she is the strongest hard court player at the moment.  Barty is my number two pick followed by Kenin and Azarenka.  Rounding out my quarter-finals would be Swiatek, Halep, SWilliams, and Kvitova.  The bookies top four are Osaka, Barty, Andreescu, and SWilliams.

At the French my top choice is Halep followed by this year’s champ, Swiatek.    Next come Kenin and Barty, and my predicted top eight rounds out with Kvitova, Osaka, Svitolina, and Muguruza.  Top four for the bookies here are Halep, Swiatek, Barty, and Osaka.

We haven’t had Wimbledon for two years, and some of the emerging stars have not yet been tested on the grass in their highly ranked incarnation – like Andreescu, Swiatek, Kenin, and even Barty.  The last three winners here – Halep, Kerber, and Muguruza – seem unlikely to win again.  Serena would be the normal pick, but so great have been her travails in the last two years that I think her odds of triumph are low.  I can see Swiatek’s smooth game reaping big dividends on grass but she is an unknown quantity on the surface.  Despite never being past the fourth round I’ll take Barty as my favourite, followed by Kvitova, Halep, and SWilliams.  For the five to eight slots I predict Osaka, Swiatek, Andreescu, and Kenin.  The bookies picks are Barty, Halep, SWilliams, and Andreescu. 

At the US Open two-time winner Osaka, my pick for alpha, is the obvious choice – although her odds are far from certain in the unpredictable women’s game.  The fierce concentration of Kenin impresses me so she’s my number two for New York, followed by Andreescu and Azarenka.  Rounding out the quarters I pick Serena, Swiatek, Barty, and Halep.  The bookies have Osaka first, followed by Barty, Andreescu, and SWilliams.

 

In conclusion...

Summing up, I expect Osaka to rise to the top as both the alpha and number one player in the game.  I have great expectations for the young guns Kenin, Andreescu, and Swiatek, and a year of consolidation from Sabalenka.  I foresee continued excellence from Halep, Kvitova, and Svitolina.  Although I would love to see Serena find her way back to a slam title, my crystal ball is not favourable for that eventuality.