After so much sporadic play in 2020, the Australian Open last month revealed a lot. Pretty much everyone showed up in Melbourne, including all the major pretenders for the throne. We hadn’t seen some in a while, like Ash Barty and Bianca Andreescu. And deep runs came from unexpected quarters, like Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova. So what did we learn in Australia, and how will it be different in Miami? Which players gained most from the AO’s lessons?
First Quarter
Although she’s still #1 in the rankings, there are growing murmurs that Barty, the #1 seed, does not deserve it, either as yearend #1 for 2020 (Sophia Kenin ran away with the year) or as present #1 since Osaka has won two of the last three slams. But Barty’s points are legit – she’s won at least 240 points in 13 of her last 16 tournaments dating to her Roland Garros victory in 2019. That’s remarkable consistency. She also the defending champion at this event, taking out three top-ten players in what became her own break-through into the top ten. After nearly a year of not playing on the tour, she returned triumphantly, taking the Yarra Valley crown, and then ran through to the AO quarter-finals. But it was the nature of that quarter-final loss that has me worried. She was up a set and a break, owning Muchova, but then self-destructed. A good tennis player would put that loss behind them, exercise a short memory, and move on. And Barty is a good tennis player. But will it haunt her, knowing she can lose from that far ahead? This will be our first glimpse of how she handles the pressure of defending a big title, and there are two more to defend this year, the French (she didn’t play the 2020 edition) and the Tour Championships.
Victoria Azarenka (seeded 14) suffered a lower back injury in early March at Doha, severity unknown. I’m guessing it won’t affect her play. She’s won this tournament twice before so is a definite threat to go deep. If the rankings were calculated on the traditional 52-week rolling method, she would be #2 for her performance in the past 12 months, instead of in the mid-teens.
Aryna Sabalenka (7) has played this tournament only twice, winning a total of one match. But she has become entrenched in the top ten since then. She generally does well on hard courts so I see no reason she couldn’t challenge for the title here with her continual go-for-broke style.
Belinda Bencic (11) is still talented and has been rounding into form after little play in 2020. Her varied and intelligent game could take her very deep in this draw.
Sabalenka d. Azarenka
Second Quarter
Simona Halep (3) enjoyed two yearends at #1 in the interregnum between Serena’s reign and whatever is coming next – it appears increasingly likely to be an Osaka period. Halep has been the most consistent performer of the last seven years, finishing in the top four throughout that period and making five slam finals. But for all her amazing defense-to-offense transitions, she’s starting to look a little under-powered against big-hitters like Osaka, Muguruza, Kvitova, and of course, Serena Williams.
Coco Gauff (31) hasn’t turned out to be the world-beating sensation of the early hype. But she still has lots of time; she’s only 17 years old.
Iga Swiatek (15) would be ranked #3 in a pre-covid ranking system. She became famous for employing a mental coach during her Roland Garros win. But she looked like a basket case in self-destructing to Halep in Australia. However she rebounded into her calm, cool, and collected self to take the Adelaide crown the following week. Which persona will show up in Miami? I’d love to see the calm one take on Osaka or an in-form Muguruza. She may get a chance to resume her see-saw rivalry with Halep in the fourth round.
Big-hitting Madison Keys (18) hasn’t won a tournament since 2019 and has not looked up to full steam since the restart in August.
Elina Svitolina (5) continues to do well without a significant weapon. She’s a tough-out for any opponent, but will always be in trouble against a heavy-hitter who’s ‘on.’
Petra Kvitova (9) has not done particularly well at this event for a top player, making quarter-finals twice. She has similar records at Indian Wells and the US Open. I see no good reason for this allergy to American soil. Maybe this is the year she goes deeper.
Kvitova d. Swiatek
(By the way, Kvitova NEVER goes deep when I predict she will.)
Third Quarter
Sophia Kenin (4) has had a rough patch, losing four of her last seven matches. She has not looked like the player who was the top point-getter of 2020. An emergency appendectomy after her last loss may reveal part of the cause. But even if she’s back, how fit will she be?
Jen Brady (13) is another player who would be ranked much higher in a normal rankings scenario, at # 4. If she can channel the hard-court prowess she’s shown in the last two slams she could have a very deep run. Unfortunately she’s in a tough quarter.
Both Amanda Anisimova (28) and Sloane Stephens are talented players who have been struggling to find form in the last year. Stephens in particular has lost 26 of her last 36 matches.
Bianca Andreescu (8) showed she was still alive with a single victory at the Aus Open after 14 months without an official match. Understandably her form was rusty. I expect a slight improvement but not yet full-roar Andreescu.
Garbine Muguruza (12) has won more matches this year than any other tour player with 18 wins, including a trip to the 1000 title in Dubai. When on, she can beat anybody. Her biggest challenge in this quarter is likely to come from that other ‘almost-the-winner’ player of the last 12 months, Jennifer Brady.
Muguruza d. Brady
Fourth Quarter
If the rankings were calculated on the normal 52-week rolling basis, Naomi Osaka would be #1, and by a large margin. She’s won all 21 matches she’s played in the last year, which, although super-impressive, is not a lot of matches for 12 months. All 21 of the wins were on hard courts. Miami is on hard. Not difficult to guess where this is going...
Big tournament queens Yulia Putintseva (26) and Anett Kontaveit (22) are nearby and have a penchant for knocking out high-ranked players before fizzling. A stiffer challenge may come from Elise Mertens (16), who’s now been to the second week of half the slams she’s played.
Former world #1 Karolina Pliskova (6) seems to have become even less reliable than I remember. Kiki Bertens (10) has played only two matches this year, both losses.
Jessica Pegula (29) is one of the feel-good stories of 2021. After years of labouring in the trenches, the 27-year old is having a break out year that would have her in the top 20 in normal ranking times.
Osaka d. Pegula
Semis
Sabalenka d. Kvitova
Osaka had to save match points last time they played.
Osaka d. Muguruza
Final
Until someone consistently beats a healthy Osaka on hard courts, she remains the favourite and new alpha in women’s tennis.
Osaka d Sabalenka
Bookies
Decimal odds from oddschecker.com on 23 Mar 2021
|
Miami |
average |
|
4.0 |
|
|
8.1 |
|
|
10.0 |
|
|
10.4 |
|
|
11.0 |
|
|
17.0 |
|
|
17.0 |
|
|
17.8 |
|
|
23.2 |
|
|
24.4 |
|
|
27.2 |
|
|
29.8 |
|
|
34.0 |
|
|
42.2 |
|
|
51.0 |
|
|
60.6 |
|
|
67.0 |
|
|
70.2 |
|
|
75.4 |
|
|
75.4 |
|
|
81.0 |
|
|
83.4 |
|
|
93.0 |
|
|
94.2 |
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