Actually I have no clue who will win this title. That we got a French Open final between Krejcikova and Pavlyuchenkova should prove the hopelessness of predicting the WTA in 2021. So the best I can do is take a stab at the state of some of the potential favourites.
First Quarter
Ashleigh Barty (seed #1) retired during her second round match at Roland Garros with a hip injury. She’s saying she’ll be ready to go but as we know from Andy Murray, hip injuries are not to be trifled with. The bookies have her as their #1 pick.
The next highest seed here is Bianca Andreescu at #5. The Canadian has only played one match in the main draw of Wimbledon, which she lost, but it was a full year before her rise to prominence. She’s basically an unknown on grass, but we do know she is a fierce fighter.
The new French Open champ, Barbora Krejcikova (14) has never played the main draw at Wimbledon in singles, but has won a doubles title, so she can play on grass. The general variety in her game should serve her well.
Krejcikova’s doubles partner, Katerina Siniakova, lands near Barty, facing #27 seed Johanna Konta in the first round. Konta won the grass tune-up in Nottingham and is a former semi-finalist at Wimbledon. Siniakova is into the final of Bad Homburg this week. Either could trouble Barty.
Also in this loaded quarter are Jelena Ostapenko, Daria Kasatkina (31), and Anett Kontaveit (24). All are tournament finalists on grass within the last two weeks and are proven quantities at Wimbledon, especially Ostapenko, semi-finalist here in 2018.
Victoria Azarenka has the best Wimbledon pedigree in this section with 32 past matches won and two semi-final appearances.
Any of the nine names I’ve already mentioned are reasonable picks as semi-finalists. But there are further threats like 7th seed Kiki Bertens – soon to retire, two-time quarter-finalist Coco Vandeweghe, Alize Cornet, and youngsters, Marta Kostyuk, Clara Tauson, and Leylah Ferandez.
There is an abundance of talent here.
Barty d. Azarenka
Second Quarter
Seven-time champ Serena Williams (6) would be a shoo-in pick for this quarter if this were four or five years ago. But at age 39 and with her recent failures to go deep in slams, she is far from a sure bet. However, she IS Serena Williams – 23-time slam champion, not to mention another 16 slam titles in doubles and mixed doubles. And the cards would seem to be falling her way. #1 seed Barty is coming off injury, both defending champ Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka are not playing, former champs Kvitova and Kerber have looked well past their primes this year, and the slew of rising young talent like Swiatek, Andreescu, Krejcikova and Sabalenka are unproven on grass. Plus this is Serena’s favourite surface, at the slam where she’s won the most titles. Everything is breaking her way. If there is a chance for Serena to finally claim that elusive 24th slam title, tying her with Margaret Court for the all-time singles record, THIS IS IT.
The challenge will be for Serena to martial her resources against the physical and mental tolls that age will demand from a player during two weeks that require intense focus and allow no mistakes. As Chris Evert says, unless you’ve been there you can’t understand how hard it is for an older player. All eyes will be on Serena. The pressure will be immense.
And the section is far from a cake-walk. Karolina Muchova (19) has only one previous appearance at the Big W, but it was a good one, making the quarter-finals. She made semis of the Australian this year and her star is rising. Her varied game and fine touch around the net are ideal for wrong-footing opponents on this slippery grass.
Elina Svitolina’s (3) consistent, moderately heavy ball is not what I would pick for effectiveness on grass but she has made a semi-final at Wimbledon, albeit only once. Her draw looks reasonable till the fourth round where she could face Muchova.
Belinda Bencic (9) may actually live up to her seeding, reflecting a ranking that has been largely bolstered by the ‘frozen’ (at least ‘sluggish’) covid rankings. She’s been to four grass finals in her career, winning Eastbourne a few years ago.
Coco Gauff (20) made a huge splash at Wimbledon as an unseeded 15-year old. Now 17 and seeded, she is a light-year ahead of that surprising run to the fourth round. It’s actually possible she could win the whole tournament this year – such is her talent. But it’s still unlikely.
Angelique Kerber (25) was the Wimbledon champion only 3 years ago. While it’s been a rough three years results-wise, she’s showing signs of life and won the final in Bad Homburg on grass this week. She’s split two Wimbledon finals with Serena, and this year they could meet in the third round. It could get very interesting.
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have anything left to give after her career-defining run to the French final, just a fortnight ago? Also here is Shuai Zhang, runner-up on Nottingham grass two weeks ago.
SWilliams d. Svitolina
Third Quarter
Sofia Kenin (4) is having a rough year but put together three good wins at Roland Garros. She’s managed only second round at both previous appearances at Wimbledon, but that was before her run to two slam finals.
Madison Keys (23) has been slowly deflating since her run to the US Open final in 2017, but has started to show some signs of life this year. She has the advantage of a history on grass with 15 matches won here and a quarter-final appearance in 2015.
Elise Mertens (13) made fourth round in her last showing at the Big W, but lost in the first of both of her grass court tune-ups this month. Nevertheless, she’ll be a reasonable bet to find her footing for a few matches.
Alison Riske (28) is a grass lover and made quarters here in 2019. She’s looked shaky in her two grass events this year. Jessica Pegula (22) beat Karolina Pliskova (8) last week, but lost to Siniakova this week. Pliskova has been to the fourth round of Wimbledon twice.
Petra Kvitova (10) won the Championships in 2011 and 2014 and hasn’t been past the fourth round since. But you never know when she will get hot and her lightning bolts will start actually hitting the court. She has a tricky first rounder against two-time slam finalist Sloane Stephens, a former quarter-finalist who looked much improved at the French this year after two years of slumping.
There is no one in this quarter who I believe is a likely semi-finalist. Or put another way, almost anyone could make it that far. Where is my dartboard?
Kvitova d. Keys
Fourth Quarter
With Osaka and Halep out, Aryna Sabalenka has migrated into the #2 slot. In three previous appearances at Wimbledon she’s only made it to the second round once. And she’s never been past the fourth round of any slam. Still, with her talent, at some point that has to change. I’ll wager she has a better chance on familiar hard courts.
Maria Sakkari (15) has proven the giant-killer this year taking Osaka out of Miami and Swiatek out of Roland Garros, both defending champs. She’s made 3R twice at Wimbledon and rose to her first slam semis at the French two weeks ago.
Elena Rybakina (18) made the semis in Eastbourne this week. This will be her first Wimbledon appearance.
Garbine Muguruza (11) was on a hot streak at the beginning of the year and is a two-time finalist here, taking the title in 2017. We know she can win it all, but her form coming in is not encouraging.
Ons Jabeur (21) won the Birmingham title last week. She has the variety and guile to keep her opponents stretching and sliding in all the wrong directions on grass.
Iga Swiatek (7) is the seventh favourite of the bookies but has virtually no history on grass. She did win the junior championship here in 2018. There’s so many ways this quarter could go...
Swiatek d. Rybakina
Semis and Final
Any of the 15 slam champions in the draw would be a reasonable pick as the winner, with the possible exceptions of Stosur and Kuznetsova. Nor would a new slam champ like Sabalenka, Bencic, Muchova, Gauff, or a host of others be a surprise. I have no confidence in my picks.
Semis: SWilliams d. Barty, Kvitova d. Swiatek
Final: SWilliams d. Kvitova
Betting odds
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 Jun 2021:
|
1 |
Barty |
6 |
|
2 |
SWilliams |
7.5 |
|
3 |
Kvitova |
10 |
|
4 |
Andreescu |
11 |
|
5 |
Muguruza |
11 |
|
6 |
Sabalenka |
13 |
|
7 |
Swiatek |
13 |
|
8 |
Gauff |
17 |
|
9 |
Azarenka |
17 |
|
10 |
KaPliskova |
21 |
|
11 |
Keys |
21 |
|
12 |
Rybakina |
26 |
|
13 |
Mertens |
26 |
|
14 |
Alexandrova |
29 |
|
15 |
Sakkari |
29 |
|
16 |
Kontaveit |
34 |
|
17 |
Krejcikova |
34 |
|
18 |
Svitolina |
34 |
|
19 |
Muchova |
34 |
|
20 |
Jabeur |
34 |
|
21 |
Kenin |
34 |
|
22 |
Pavlyuchenkova |
41 |
|
23 |
Bencic |
41 |
|
24 |
Pegula |
41 |
|
25 |
Konta |
41 |
|
26 |
Badosa |
41 |
|
27 |
Kerber |
51 |
|
28 |
Vandeweghe |
51 |
|
29 |
Vekic |
51 |
|
30 |
Bouzkova |
51 |
|
31 |
Anisimova |
67 |
|
32 |
Konjuh |
67 |
|
33 |
Potapova |
67 |
|
34 |
Samsonova |
67 |
|
35 |
Vondrousova |
67 |
|
36 |
Kostyuk |
67 |
|
37 |
Martic |
67 |
|
38 |
Bertens |
81 |
|
39 |
Zidansek |
81 |
|
40 |
Riske |
101 |
|
41 |
Tauson |
101 |
|
42 |
HWatson |
101 |
|
43 |
Juvan |
101 |
|
44 |
LFernandez |
101 |
|
45 |
Stephens |
101 |
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