Wimbledon Men’s Preview 2021

 

 

Novak Djokovic is the very clear and strong favourite to win Wimbledon in 2021, thanks in part to the withdrawal of Nadal who is recovering from the rare Roland Garros loss inflicted by Djokovic in the semi-finals.  But I doubt they’ll just forego the matches and award Novak the trophy.  It’s sports, and anything can happen.  And who is likely to be the runner-up?  Besides Djokovic and Federer who have won at least five titles each, none of the top 16 seeds have made it past the fourth round, except for Roberto Bautista Agut – call me cynical, but I don’t think he’s a strong threat for the title.  So who is?

 

First Quarter

Djokovic (seeded #1) is half-way to the calendar year grand slam.  The only other time that’s happened in the last 30 years, was also Djokovic, five years ago.  In 2016 when he won the French, he became the first man to hold four slam titles simultaneously since Rod Laver in 1969.  It was a massive achievement for which he still doesn’t get enough credit.  Federer, Nadal, Sampras, and Agassi all failed to achieve it.  But having reached that summit, Djokovic went out early at Wimbledon 2016 and seemed to be on mental vacation for most of the next two years.  It was only when it became apparent that his incredible accomplishment was not being recognized in the face of the escalating slam title race between Federer and Nadal, then at 20-17 for Federer, that Djokovic buckled down and accepted the new challenge.  Djokovic had 12 slams at that point, but since Wimbledon 2018 has won seven of the last eleven.

His count is now 19 slams, one behind Federer and Nadal who each have 20.  Also at play is the so-called Golden Slam – a feat uniquely achieved when Steffi Graf won all four slams and the Olympic gold medal in 1988 – a freak occurrence I thought would never recur.  But Djokovic is two-fifths of the way there this year.  There’s an enormous amount that could trip him up and prevent the Golden Slam, but with Nadal out, Federer and all still-active previous finalists in the ‘old and decrepit’ category, and the youth brigade of other top seeds all untested at Wimbledon, Djokovic is as much a favourite for this title as Nadal usually is at the French.

Djokovic will need to be sharp out of the gate against big servers Jack Draper and Kevin Anderson in the first two rounds.  Anderson was the finalist here in 2018 and was seeded 4^th the last time Wimbledon was played. The rest of the quarter looks more manageable.  Jannik Sinner (19) is exploding upwards in ranking and ability but looked like a novice on grass in going out to 309^th ranked Draper at Queen’s Club.

Andrey Rublev (5) is the next highest seed and made it only to the second round in both prior appearances.  However, he is a much better player now.

Djokovic d. Rublev

 

Second Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) made the fourth round here in 2018, but lost 1R in 2019.  More recently he played his first slam final in Paris two weeks ago.  He got out to a two sets lead, and despite his own fine play, watched Djokovic raise his level to sweep the last three sets.  Tsitsipas looked devastated during the trophy presentation.  I’m not sure I’ve seen a slam runner-up look more desolate and alone.  Will he be able to recover from the trauma of that loss?  He’s making happy posts on twitter so I’m going to assume he has exercised the requisite short memory of a pro player and moved on.

Alex DeMinaur (15) made the quarters in Stuttgart, semis at Queen’s Club, and won the title at Eastbourne, all on grass.  He could provide a stiff challenge for Tsitsipas in the fourth round.

Denis Shapovalov (10) has only won one match at the Big W in three attempts.  But he did win the junior title in 2016.   The junior winner in 2015 was Reilly Opelka, seeded 27 this year.  The seven-footer’s huge serve could take him far on grass.

Roberto Bautista Agut (8) made semis here in 2019.  And it wasn’t a fluke, but his third trip into the second week at Wimbledon. So there’s something about the courts that suits him.  His level has dropped a little in the last two years but he will be a tough out.

We witness the return of Andy Murray in this quarter.  He’s got a rough first-rounder against Nikoloz Basilashvili (24) who made the semis in Halle last week.  The winner of that one is any one’s guess.

Tsitsipas d. Opelka

 

Third Quarter

This is a dense and loaded quarter whose highest seed is Alexander Zverev (4).  It took him a while to build up steam, but Zverev has become a regular fixture in the late rounds of slams.  His tall, hard-hitting game is well-suited for grass, but I do wonder about his ability to close in big matches.

Matteo Berrettini (7) looked like a world-beater in taking the title at Queen’s Club last week.  His hard, flat strokes and booming serve made him look nearly unplayable on grass.  He didn’t face any of the top players, so whether he can beat them is a question still unanswered.  He’s got a landmine first-rounder against Guido Pella who made the quarters in 2019.

John Isner (28), former semi-finalist and winner of the famous 70-68 set here in 2010, will be very tough to beat and could face Berrettini in the third round. Aslan Karatsev (20), surprise semi-finalist at the Australian this year in his first ever slam outing, is a bit of an unknown quantity on grass, but did score a match win at Queen’s club.

Casper Ruud (12) has been killing it on clay this year, and did manage two wins on the grass of Mallorca this week.  Near to him in the draw is Kei Nishikori, unseeded this year, but as a two-time quarter-finalist, always dangerous.

Felix Auger Aliassime (16) made headlines by taking Federer out of Halle last week, site of 10 previous championships for the Swiss maestro.  Felix made it to his eighth final in Stuttgart, but has lost them all.  We continue waiting to see if Toni Nadal can shore up the Canadian’s mental game.

Probably the most intriguing first-rounder in the men’s draw (Murray-Basilashvili is another candidate) is the clash between Ugo Humbert (21) and Nick Kyrgios.  The young Humbert beat five quality opponents to take the Halle title last week and made the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2019, his only previous appearance.  He was everyone’s sleeper pick to go deep this year until the draw came out showing Kyrgios as his opponent. 

Kyrgios is one of the brashest and most colourful characters in tennis and has a game to match.  Despite being a notorious under-achiever, he’s a former quarter-finalist at Wimbledon and has a 5-5 match record against Nadal and Djokovic combined.  He often appears bored and uninterested in playing, but when facing the top players, delights in giving them fits, serving underhanded, trash-talking, heckling the crowd, fighting with the umpire, and generally misbehaving... and then winning.  He’s spent most of the pandemic not-playing but taking pot-shots at other players on social media from the comfort of home in Australia.  It’s almost surprising he’s made the trip to Wimbledon.  This will be only his second tournament outside of Australia in the last year and a half.  The only exception was Acapulco in Februrary 2020, where he was then the defending champion after an outrageous run in 2019 that included a come from behind victory over Nadal featuring Kyrgios’ full bag of tricks.  Nadal left the tournament in disgust, calling out Kyrgios for having no respect for himself, his opponent, or the game. 

But Kyrgios’ 2020 campaign at Acapulco was halted in the first round by none other than Humbert, when Krygios retired after a set.  They played their grudge match in Australia this year, a long five-setter to Kyrgios. With Kyrgios not having played since February, I expect him to be amped and ready, a ball of pent-up energy.  After such a long break, I would question a player’s tournament readiness, but such is Kyrgios’ talent that really anything is possible.  How will Humbert’s classic grass game stack up against the wiles of Kyrgios?  I’m expecting drama.

Berrettini d. Zverev

 

Fourth Quarter

Here lands Roger Federer, seeded 6^th.  In every Wimbledon since his 2001 win over four-time defending champion Pete Sampras, Federer has been a favourite for the title.  And even though he had two match points for the title the last time Wimbledon was played, this year feels distinctly different.  The 39-year old has won only five matches this year.  He had two knee surgeries last year.  He was ousted from Halle, a grass tournament he’s won ten times, by a man 19 years his junior – the greatest age gap in Federer’s 1521 matches.  The bookies still have Federer as their fourth favourite, but that is the lowest they’ve had him pre-tournament since he first won Wimbledon in 2003.

Federer has not looked particularly sharp in his matches this year, and his first round against veteran Adrian Mannarino could be tricky.  But whatever age and injury have done to Federer, he will always have massive talent in his hands.  And that is one of the most important factors for winning against the low and unpredictable bounces that grass yields.  It would not be a shock if Federer lost his first match, but I also think he can play his way into form and make the final.  And if he makes the final, anything is possible.  He’s not dead yet.

The highest seed in this quarter is Daniil Medvedev at #2.  He’s only ever made it as far as the third round here, but he just won the grass title in Mallorca.  Like his surprisingly deep run on the till-then-hated clay in Paris, he may be poised for another deep run on an earthy surface.  He’s certainly a much better and more highly ranked player than when he last played Wimbledon, as the 11^th seed.

Near to him in the draw is Marin Cilic (32), the runner-up from 2017.  Sam Querrey has been to the quarters or better three times at the All England Club but is unseeded this year and lands in the first round against Pablo Carreno Busta (11).  Remarkably, Carreno Busta has one of the worst records of all time at Wimbledon, going oh-for-five in his previous appearances.  He’s tied with Delbonis for worst record in this draw.

Cameron Norrie (29) did the home crowd proud when he made the final at Queen’s club last week. Lorenzo Sonego (23) replicated the feat by making the final in Eastbourne this week.

Federer d. Medvedev

 

Semis and Final

If Djokovic can stay focused and present he should be able to ride his incredible skills and towering mental strength to another title.  Any player he faces could get hot and win a set or two, but over best-of-five, I don’t know who can beat him.  A sixth Wimbledon looms for Djokovic, and with it, three-quarters of the calendar slam – the true Grand Slam.

Semis:  Djokovic d. Tsitsipas, Berrettini d. Federer

Final:  Djokovic d. Berrettini

 

Betting odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 Jun 2021:

1	Djokovic	1.9
2	Tsitsipas	6.5
3	DMedvedev	7
4	Federer	9
5	AZverev	13
6	Berrettini	17
7	Thiem	34
8	Kyrgios	34
9	Rublev	34
10	Sinner	34
11	Shapovalov	41
12	KAnderson	51
13	AMurray	51
14	DeMinaur	51
15	Cilic	51
16	Karatsev	51
17	Khachanov	67
18	Dimitrov	67
19	Nishikori	67
20	AugerAliassime	67
21	Humbert	67
22	Monfils	81
23	BautistaAgut	81
24	Tsonga	81
25	Evans	81
26	Isner	101
27	Fritz	101
28	Opelka	101
29	Hurkacz	101
30	Norrie	101
31	CaRuud	101
32	SKorda	101
33	Musetti	126
34	CarrenoBusta	126
35	Tiafoe	151
36	Pouille	151
37	Garin	151
38	Fognini	151
39	FLopez	151
40	Draper	151
41	Struff	201
42	Basilashvili	201