Wimbledon Men’s Preview 2022

 

For the second year in a row, the Grand Slam is ‘on’ as we head to Wimbledon, with Rafael Nadal claiming the first two slams of the year.  Can Rafa complete the job at which Novak fell one match short last year?  Its ‘the smell of napalm in the morning.’  

Somehow, Nadal was not viewed as the favourite in either slam this year, and he’s not for this one either.  But should he be?  The conventional wisdom is that Novak Djokovic, three-time defending champ and winner of six Wimbledon titles is the favourite.  He certainly has the superior record here. But is it only a two-horse race, or can someone else claim this Wimbledon? For me, the big unknowns before the draw were, where will Berrettini and Hurkacz land?

 

First Quarter

With Daniiel Medvedev banned for being Russian, and Alexander Zverev out after a horrific French Open ankle injury, third-ranked Djokovic is the top seed – which seems appropriate, even if everyone were playing. 

Wimbledon has made the unfortunate decision, to my mind, to ban players from Russia and Belarus.  I believe sport should transcend national politics, and is in fact a stage that can break down political differences, but only if we can play together. It is only the athletes that will suffer from this.

It long seemed that Federer was the best on grass, but it is Djokovic who leads their head to head at Wimbledon 3-1, Federer’s lone win coming ten years ago.  Novak has won six of the last ten Wimbledon’s.  He had a slow start to the year – forced out of Australia and the US sunshine swing.  Nadal proved too tough at Roland Garros, little surprise, but Djokovic now moves into a real comfort zone – a surface that is not as comfortable for Nadal. Will Novak’s ability on this surface give him enough confidence to overcome the mental juggernaut that is Rafa?

Djokovic is certainly the favourite in this quarter. Carlos Alcaraz is next highest seed at #5.  The 19 year-old is basically untested on grass.  Alcaraz has the kind of all-around game and all-around talent that should translate to any surface, but doing well on grass often requires experience.  He probably has the talent to figure out the surface quickly.  A first round loss or a championship run would be about equally (un)surprising.  He faces a known grass court talent in Struff, in the first round.  Oscar Otte (seeded 32) seems to like the surface and could provide a third round test for Alcaraz.

Andy Murray is here, unseeded, and will be a sentimental favourite of the crowd to go deep.  His run to the final in Stuttgart two weeks ago indicates he could be dangerous.  I’ll expect little from Jannik Sinner (10), unproven on this surface, and facing Stan Wawrinka in the first round.  I’ll be watching wildcard Tim van Rijthoven with interest, undefeated on tour-level grass this year with victories over Fritz, Felix, and Medvedev.

Djokovic d Alcaraz

 

Second Quarter

After an illuminating run at the French which saw him reach the final, Casper Ruud finds himself the third seed at Wimbledon.   But he has never won a match here. His half of this quarter look especially soft and might produce Humbert, Goffin, Bublik, or Tiafoe as a quarterfinalist.

The other half slots Norrie (9) and Dimitrov (18) for a potential third round battle.  Dimitrov has made deep runs at Wimbledon, but all eyes will be on Hubert Hurkacz (7), a semi-finalist last year here, and the recent winner of Halle, beating five good grass court players to do it, including Felix, Kyrgios, and Medvedev.  This quarter is Hubie’s to lose.

Hurkacz d Tiafoe

 

Third Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) is the top seed in this quarter.  He leads the tour in match wins this year.  But he struggles at Wimbledon with a losing 3-4 match record and first round losses in the last two editions.  Despite the Mallorca tournament on grass last week, he’s got a tough run with Nick Kyrgios, Roberta Bautista Agut (17), and Denis Shapovalov (13) all proven grass talents in his section.  Shapo was a semi-finalist here last here, but Kyrgios is the real wildcard.

But the seed everyone is expecting to take this quarter is Matteo Berrettini (8).  Matteo has won two tournaments on grass this year and was finalist at Wimbledon last year.  His serve + forehand combo is all but invincible.  The bookies have him as their second favourite after Djokovic and ahead of Nadal.  If Berrettini were to hold the trophy aloft in two weeks, few would be surprised.  He should be able to take out Nadal in the semis, but such is the profundity of mental gifts possessed by Nadal, I would not count on it.

Berrettini d Shapovalov

 

Fourth Quarter

Despite four tournament victories this year, Nadal is ranked only #4, but with Medvedev and Zverev out, he secures the #2 seeding.  Rafa last played Wimbledon three years ago in 2019, and it is the slam where he has his lowest match-winning percentage – a still exceptional 81.5%.  And he did rack up a 20-match win streak here from 2008-2011.  But despite hinting at the French that he wouldn’t play Wimbledon, after securing the first two legs of the Calendar Slam for the first time in his career, he’s stated his desire to play.  I suspect it is only the chance at the Slam that has him making the effort.  He revealed at the French that he was taking injections in his foot to numb the pain and allow him to play, but that he wouldn’t be taking that measure again.  However, given this once in a lifetime opportunity, I suspect he will make every effort to secure the title.  Can his foot hold up?

What has become abundantly clear this year is that his mental tenacity is in no way diminished.  If anything, the ferocity of his focus is perhaps now a bigger weapon than it has ever been – and that’s saying something.  Nadal has been exalted for his mental toughness over the years.  One never gets the impression that he caves. But this year he has escaped dire circumstances against both Shapovalov and Medvedev at the Australian, and against Auger-Aliassime at the French.  And his battles also at the French against Djokovic, Zverev, and Ruud were masterclasses in bloodless calculation.

Nadal has been unbending.  Will it be enough to overcome the superior grasscourt skills of Djokovic?  More than at the French, Djokovic will have the confidence that he can outplay Nadal on this surface.  Yet so formidable is Nadal’s tenacity, that it can undermine anyone’s confidence – knowing that no lead is safe.  Djokovic ‘should’ have enough game, confidence, and experience to overcome Nadal, but I suspect that the hint of doubt I’ve seen in Novak’s game this year will be just the wedge Nadal needs.

Felix Auger Aliassime (6) has a very tricky opener against net-rushing Maxime Cressy. He was a quarter-finalist here last year and has a game seemingly made for grass. Taylor Fritz (11) won the title at Eastbourne last week, so may do better than this previous best third-round showing from last year.  Marin Cilic (14) seems revitalized after his doctor told him he has the body of a 20-something year-old.  He made semis of the French this year and is a former finalist here.

Nadal d Auger Aliassime

 

Semis and Final

Djokovic def Hurkacz

Nadal def Berrettini

 

Final – Nadal def Djokovic

 

Expert Picks

Djokovic – (7) JDrucker, DKane, SLivaudais, MFitzgerald, EMcGrogan, SBoughton, GGross

Berrettini – (1) STignor

 

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 20 Jun 2022

1	Djokovic	1.8
2	Berrettini	6.5
3	Nadal	7.5
4	Alcaraz	9
5	Auger Aliassime	12
6	Hurkacz	17
7	Kyrgios	19
8	Tsitsipas	19
9	Cilic	21
10	AMurray	26
11	Shapovalov	34
12	Sinner	41
13	Norrie	51
14	Brooksby	51
15	(Raonic)	51
16	Fritz	51
17	CaRuud	67
18	Isner	67
19	Opelka	67
20	Evans	81
21	Dimitrov	81
22	Van Rijthoven	81
23	Humbert	81
24	De Minaur	101
25	Bublik	101
26	Rune	101
27	Draper	101
28	Musetti	101
29	Cressy	101
30	Bautista Agut	101
31	Kecmanovic	101
32	Mannarino	151
33	Van de Zandschulp	151
34	Krajinovic	151
35	(Monfils)	151
36	Basilashvili	151
37	Querrey	151
38	Paul	151