Wimbledon Women’s Preview 2022

 

All the women who have a reasonable Wimbledon pedigree seem either past their prime or out of form.  So that leaves a lot of unknowns entering this year’s tournament.  Iga Swiatek is the bookies’ favourite, and justifiably so, riding a 35-match win streak.  But she’s only played the Wimbledon main draw twice, her best: a fourth round showing last year.  There are eleven slam champions in the draw, but only two of them, Swiatek and Muguruza, are in the top ten.  There seem two possible scenarios:  either Swiatek continues her indomitable march to victory, or the tournament is wide open.

 

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek is a deserved #1, having dominated the tour since February.  If she wins here she could extend her win streak to 42 matches, a number that hasn’t been surpassed since Steffi Graf won 44 matches in a row in 1993.  For perspective, Graf had previous streaks of 45, 46, and 66; Navratilova won 74 straight in 1984; and there were several 100+ streaks in the 1920’s to 40’s.  The kind of dominance we are seeing from Iga is rare, especially in today’s hyper-competitive arena.

Swiatek’s draw looks reasonable, providing she figures out how to play on grass – she skipped the warm-up events.  Her first stiff challenge might come in the fourth round from Barbora Krejcikova (seeded 13), last year’s Roland Garros champion who made the fourth round at Wimbledon last year in her main draw debut.

Also in this quarter are former champ Garbine Muguruza (9), Sloane Stephens, Bianca Andreescu, and Jessica Pegula (8) who has been having a career best year but has little pedigree on grass.  Muguruza is below .500 on the year (8-11).  Stephens is only slightly better (10-9), but had an encouraging run to the quarters of the French. 

Andreescu has also been finding form and made the final of Bad Homburg last week on grass.  Last year was a recovery year for Bianca and she is now rounding into what could be dangerous fettle.  A run to the final would signal a return to championship level.  As of today she is the tenth favourite of the bookies.

Swiatek def Andreescu

 

Second Quarter

This quarter has many talented players and a lot of opportunity.  The big attraction is Serena Williams, unseeded and playing for the first time since exiting in the first round here one year ago, victim of a slip on the grass. Serena has won seven titles at Wimbledon.  This surface is likely the one that will be most forgiving for lack of match fitness.  Serena has shown before that she can come into a tournament with no preparation and still win it.  But at age 40 her ability to regain fitness is likely diminished.  I expect that, despite her otherworldly talent, she will struggle to keep pace with younger and fitter opponents.  And yet… she can never be counted out.

Last year’s runner-up Karolina Pliskova (6) could meet Serena in the third round.  Although she’s only won eight matches all year, Pliskova’s record and talent on grass mean she will be dangerous.  Amanda Anisimova (20) took Naomi Osaka out of both slams this year, but without Osaka in the draw who will be her next big scalp?  She could face Coco Gauff (11) in the third round.  The recent French Open runner-up showed she can play on grass too, making the semis in Berlin.  Still only 18 years old, the sky is the limit for Gauff’s talent.

Petra Kvitova (25) continues to show she is always dangerous, winning in Eastbourne last week.  Her 29^th title trails only Venus and Serena among active players.  Surprisingly she has not been past the fourth round since her second Wimbledon title in 2014.

Simona Halep (16) did not have a chance to defend her 2019 title last year, and without Barty in the draw is the closest thing to a defending champion.  She could sweep to the title or lose in the first round.  She has a deadly opener against the all-court game of Karolina Muchova, who has made the quarters both previous times she played SW19.

The highest seed in this quarter is Paula Badosa (4) who made the fourth round last year, her break-out year. It is anyone’s guess what Badosa can do on grass this year, but a first round loss in Eastbourne last week is hardly encouraging.

Halep def Gauff

 

Third Quarter

Ons Jabeur is both the third seed and, as of today, the second favourite of the bookies.  She crashed out at Roland Garros, but can she do better here?  I’ll bet she can.  She claimed the Berlin crown on grass two weeks ago.  The always dangerous Kaia Kanepi (31) is a possible third round opponent, but a greater threat might come from Angelique Kerber (15) in the fourth round.  Kerber is a former champ who made the semis last year.  Grass is probably her best surface.

Danielle Collins is seeded seven but her best previous showing at Wimbledon is third round.  Meanwhile, Shuai Zhang (33) has been a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon before and made the final in Birmingham two weeks ago.

Caroline Garcia took the title in Eastbourne last week, but is notoriously unpredictable at slams.  She could be a second-round opponent for Emma Raducanu (10).  The British sensation has struggled in the sophomore year of her US Open triumph last year, plagued by injury.  She made the fourth round here last year, announcing herself to the cognoscenti, but despite abundant talent, I suspect she will not make a deep run at Wimbledon until better health returns.

Kerber def Zhang

 

Fourth Quarter

This may be the toughest quarter to predict.  I don’t see a clear favourite.  Anett Kontaveit is the second seed, but seemingly by default.  She’s won only three matches since the end of February, and none since April.  The next highest seed, Maria Sakkari (5), has fared a little better, winning nine matches since March, including five on grass.  But she has trouble closing in big moments.

Jelena Ostapenko (12) is about as unpredictable as they come.  The former French Open champion was once a Wimbledon semi-finalist and made the final in Eastbourne last week.  Belinda Bencic (14) has a tricky opener against Qiang Wang.  Bencic has twice made Wimbledon’s second week (fourth round) and made the final in Berlin two weeks ago.  She would seem to be well-suited for a deep run, but has had some surprising losses at slams.

Beatriz Haddad Maia (23) has been a revelation on grass this year, winning 12 straight matches and two tournaments, before finally being out-battled by Kvitova in the semis of Eastbourne. Can this mid-career player at an all-time high ranking make a deep run at the world’s most prestigious tournament?

Haddad Maia def Ostapenko

 

Semis and Final

Swiatek def Halep

Kerber def Haddad Maia

 

Final – Swiatek def Kerber

 

Expert Picks

Swiatek – (2) JDrucker, DKane

Jabeur – (2) MFitzgerald, SLivaudais

Kerber – (1) STignor

Sakkari – (1) EMcGrogan

 

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 20 Jun 2022

1	Swiatek	2.5
2	Gauff	11
3	Halep	13
4	Jabeur	15
5	Raducanu	17
6	SWilliams	17
7	KaPliskova	19
8	Badosa	21
9	Sakkari	21
10	Krejcikova	21
11	Bencic	21
12	Kvitova	23
13	Muguruza	23
14	Andreescu	23
15	Kontaveit	26
16	Rybakina	26
17	Anisimova	26
18	Kerber	26
19	Keys	34
20	Collins	34
21	LFernandez	34
22	Haddad Maia	34
23	Ostapenko	41
24	Vondrousova	41
25	Stephens	41
26	Van Uytvanck	41
27	Giorgi	51
28	Brady	51
29	Muchova	51
30	Pegula	51
31	QZheng	67
32	Tauson	67
33	Mertens	67
34	Kostyuk	67
35	Martic	81
36	Trevisan	101
37	Kenin	101
38	LFruhvirtova	101
39	Yastremska	101
40	Tomljanovic	101
41	Siniakova	101
42	Linette	101