Wimbledon 2023 Women’s Draw

 

The only former champions in this year’s Wimbledon draw are Elena Rybakina, Petra Kvitova, and Venus Williams.  With Rybakina recovering from a viral illness and Kvitova’s and Williams’ last victories coming 9 and 15 years ago, respectively, this draw feels wide open.

 

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek showed encouraging signs this week, making semis in Eastbourne, before pulling out with a fever.  She’s also been blessed by the draw, with most of the bookies’ favourites landing in the other half, particularly the deadly third quarter.  Only one of the bookies’ top-ten pre-draw picks is in her half, Coco Gauff. Plus Swiatek should be motivated to keep her #1 ranking: her run of 67 weeks on top might end if she doesn’t make the final and Sabalenka does.  It’s already the 13^th longest #1 streak in WTA history. 

However, there’s still the question of her grass court pedigree.  It’s not long and her loss to Cornet in last year’s fourth round is worrisome.  Iga generally prefers slower surfaces, so Wimbledon grass is outside of her normal wheelhouse.  But between her wins this week and a softish draw, I’m predicting a deep run for her.

Coco Gauff (seeded #7) had a decent run this week before losing to Keys in the semis of Eastbourne.  She’s been to the second week at Wimbledon twice.

Daria Kasatkina (11) is into the final of Eastbourne this week, but could meet Victoria Azarenka (19) in Wimbledon’s third round – a matchup Azarenka leads 5-0.

Some returning veterans in this section include former semi-finalist Barbora Strycova, and a first rounder between Elina Svitolina and the ageless Venus Williams – a shame they can’t both advance.

Swiatek def Gauff

 

Second Quarter

This is the dartboard quarter.  Jessica Pegula (4) and Caroline Garcia (5) are the highest seeds and of the two only Garcia has made a fourth round here.  Liudmila Samsonova (15) won a grass tournament – but it was two years ago. Veronika Kudermetova (12) and Donna Vekic (20) were both runners-up in grass events this year. Katerina Siniakova is into a final on grass this year (yet to be played).  And Marie Bouzkova (32) made quarters at Wimbledon last year.

The resumes are all a bit thin, so an unknown emerging here would be perfectly reasonable.

Vekic def Siniakova

 

Third Quarter

This is where the fireworks begin – one of the most loaded slam quarters in memory.

Both last year’s Wimbledon finalists are here: Rybakina and Jabeur.  Elena Rybakina (3) has been my pick for this title since last year.  However, recently she’s been out with a ‘viral illness’ that caused her to withdraw from both the French Open and Eastbourne.  Her blend of smooth power tennis, dominant serve, and unshakeable demeanor would make her the clear favourite to repeat, but the illness has me second-guessing how ready she will be to go all the way.  If she can survive the first few matches, her chances of lifting the trophy will significantly improve.

Her path is full of landmines, starting with giant-killer Shelby Rogers in round one.  Next up could be Alize Cornet who took Swiatek out last year.  The third round could bring up Katie Boulter who won Nottingham two weeks ago.  After that could follow the irrepressible Jelena Ostapenko (17) a former slam winner whose swing-for-the-fences style is often at its best on grass, or Beatriz Haddad Maia (13) who just made the French semis and won two grass tournaments last year.  And that’s only half of this quarter.

Ons Jabeur (6) made two slam finals last year.  She’s had a decent year in 2023, winning Charleston and making quarters at Roland Garros.  Her all-court wizardry of slices, drop shots, net approaches, and off-speed hits is particularly effective on grass.

Petra Kvitova (9) is a two-time winner here and should not be discounted.  She’s won a grass-court tune-up, which is fairly typical of her.  In the last nine years that pre-Wimbledon win has not resulted in success on the main stage, and I suspect that will be the case again. But with Petra, anything is possible.

Runner-up here in 2021, Karolina Pliskova (18) is also in this quarter, a potential all-Czech third-rounder with Kvitova.  She is only slightly more predictable than her country-woman, but there’s little in her recent form to suggest a deep run.

Bianca Andreescu should not escape mention, the former US Open champion has struggled with injury through much of her career but is still only 23 and capable of almost anything.

Jabeur def Rybakina

 

Fourth Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka (2) is the section’s top seed and made the semis when she was last allowed to play here in 2021.  She’s an improved player since then.  Her tune-up on grass resulted in an unconvincing loss to Kudermetova, but I put little weight on it.  Her hard-hitting game should translate well to grass and her movement has only improved.  My brother says Sabalenka is his pick to go all the way and that’s perfectly reasonable, as many experts agree, however I think an in-form Swiatek or Rybakina would be favoured based on movement.

French Open finalist Karolina Muchova (16) could be a significant obstacle for Sabalenka in the fourth round.  Twice a quarter-finalist here, Muchova’s slicey, serve-and-volley game looks perfect for grass.  But it wouldn’t surprise me if Muchova is still in a bit of a slam hangover – flushed with success from the Parisian clay.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (21) is especially potent on grass having won two of her four career titles on the surface, the most recent just two weeks ago. If she had landed in the second quarter of this draw I’d likely pick her for the semis, but as it stands she’s slated to go through Muchova and Sabalenka just to get to the quarters.

Barbora Krejcikova (10) made third round and fourth round here in her last two appearances.  A round further into the quarters would not surprise.

Madison Keys (25) has had a middling year but is into a grass final this weekend and has been in the second week at Wimbledon three times.

Paula Badosa has two fourth round appearances here but recent poor form has the former #2 unseeded in this year’s event.

Mirra Andreeva is just 16 and probably won’t make it far, but she is certainly precocious.

Sabalenka def Krejcikova

 

Semis

Swiatek def Vekic

Sabalenka def Jabeur

 

Final

Much to my own surprise, I’m picking Swiatek to hoist the Venus Rosewater dish in two weeks time.

Swiatek def Sabalenka

 

Expert Picks:

Rybakina (5): Joel Drucker (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan (Tennis Channel), Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Todd Woodbridge (AO Panel), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)

Sabalenka (5):  Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis Channel), Alycia Molik (AO Panel), Wally Masur (AO Panel), Casey Dellacqua (AO Panel), Matthew Crist (gambling.com)

Kvitova (4): Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis Channel), David Kane (Tennis Channel), Nicole Pratt (AO Panel), Simon Rea (AO Panel)

Swiatek (2):  Jon Levey (Tennis Channel), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated)

 

Bookies picks:

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 30 June 2023

1	Swiatek	3.5
2	Rybakina	4.75
3	Sabalenka	6
4	Kvitova	13
5	Gauff	15
6	Jabeur	17
7	Vekic	21
8	Muchova	23
9	Kasatkina	29
10	Krejcikova	29
11	Kudermetova	29
12	Ostapenko	29
13	Keys	34
14	Alexandrova	41
15	Pegula	41
16	Sakkari	41
17	MAndreeva	51
18	Garcia	51
19	Samsonova	51
20	Haddad Maia	67
21	KaPliskova	67
22	QZheng	67
23	Bencic	101
24	Martic	126
25	Azarenka	151
26	Badosa	151
27	Bouzkova	151
28	LFerandez	151
29	Giorgi	151
30	Vondrousova	151
31	Svitolina	201
32	Tsurenko	201
33	Andreescu	251
34	LFruhvirtova	251
35	Siniakova	251