The spectacular final we got to witness in Cincinnati between Djokovic and Alcaraz felt like it put those two players into the stratosphere. Can the field bring them down to earth?
First Quarter
The big news of the draw reveal is that Carlos Alcaraz
(1), Jannik Sinner (6), and Alexander Zverev (12) are in the same
quarter. Sinner was rated third or
fourth by many commentators and odds-makers pre-draw, and Zverev fifth. Having three of the top five favourites in
one quarter should make for some exciting matches. However, I would have
preferred a more balanced draw.
Zverev and Sinner are slated to meet in the fourth round. Both hit hard and consistent ground strokes
and defend well. Zverev leads the
head-to-head 3-1. But it is Sinner who
just won the Canada 1000. Zverev beat Medvedev in Cincinnati, so both Sinner
and Zverev are in form. Both players have three wins over Alcaraz. The good news for Alcaraz is that he can face
only one of them. There are some tricky
early rounders for all these players, so there’s no guarantee they will meet,
but I look forward to the clashes if they do.
Of the three, Alcaraz must be regarded as the clear
favourite. He is the titleholder both
here and at Wimbledon, and the final he played with Djokovic at Cincinnati
showed an incredible level.
Also here are veterans Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray,
and Grigor Dimitrov (19), along with teen talent Arthur Fils.
Alcaraz def Sinner
Second Quarter
Daniil Medvedev (3) heads this quarter, which means
that four of the top five favourites are in the top half. That equals a good draw for Djokovic.
Things could get tricky for Medvedev if he should meet Max
Purcell in the second round. Purcell
is rising rapidly and pushed Alcaraz in Cincinnati. The third round could bring
up Borna Coric (27), who enjoys a 4-3 head-to-head over Medvedev. And the fourth round could pit Daniil against
Alex De Minaur (13), who has two wins over Meddy.
The other half of this section looks fairly open. Andrey Rublev (8) is the highest seed,
but has a tricky opener against Emil Ruusuvuori, and an even trickier second
against possibly Gael Monfils who is rounding back into form. The third round might produce Matteo Berrettini
who has made the second week the last four years at the US Open. Next could be Karen Khachanov (11) who
was in the semis last year. Khachanov is
returning from injury so I won’t have high expectations for him. Rather, Hubert Hurkacz (17) might take
his place. Hurkacz had a match point on
Alcaraz in Cincinnati, but couldn’t close the deal. Also here are young Jack Draper,
working his way back, and John Isner, age 38, who says he is retiring
after this tournament.
Medvedev def Hurkacz
Third Quarter
The third quarter doesn’t have a clear favourite. Of those here, Tommy Paul (14) had the
best summer swing, claiming a win over Alcaraz in Canada and nearly doing it again
in Cincinnati.
Holger Rune (4) surprises me with a #4 seeding. He made quarters at both Roland Garros and
Wimbledon but didn’t win a single match in Canada or Cincy. The talent is there, so I disregard his
chances with hesitation, however there’s little to suggest now is the time for
a deep run. His record on outdoor
hard-courts provides little encouragement.
Casper Ruud (5) was a finalist here last year but has
mustered only one hard-court match win since Wimbledon. With now three slam finals to his credit, he
has to be in the running to claim this quarter. Perhaps best-of-five sets suits
him. He could meet Frances Tiafoe
(10) in the fourth round. Tiafoe was in
the semis at the USO last year, but he’s had a forgettable summer hard-court
swing. Regardless, I think Tiafoe will
thrive in the atmosphere of New York, and I expect the crowd will get behind
him. His first few rounds are not
daunting, and if he can start to generate momentum he has a chance to go on
another run.
Also here is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21) who is
both talented and entertaining, and made the semis at the Canada 1000. He could have a popcorn third-rounder with
Paul.
Paul def Tiafoe
Fourth Quarter
There’s little we don’t know about Novak Djokovic’s
tennis at this point. Yet the second seed continues to amaze with his incredible
athleticism at age 36. The victory at
the Cincinnati 1000 showcased a broad range of undiminished skills. I suspect that the loss to Alcaraz in the
Wimbledon final has Novak highly motivated.
He will want to prove that he’s still the best, that he can still win
another slam title. I also suspect that
the victory over Alcaraz might have come one match too soon. While it will have given Djokovic belief, it should
also spur Alcaraz to dig even deeper.
And it is the young Spaniard who has more room and time to improve. Djokovic must be aware that he will have
limited chances to add to his slam tally.
Surely he will be motivated to put an insurance win between himself and
Nadal (23 and 22 slams, respectively), and also to equal, and possibly exceed
the 24 slams of Margaret Court. The next
two years will be pivotal, and then the window will likely close, if it hasn’t
already.
His draw could hardly have been kinder. Neither of the next two highest seeds, Stefanos
Tsitsipas (7) and Taylor Fritz (9), have ever been past the third
round at the US Open. Tsitsipas has a
nightmare first-rounder against returning Milos Raonic and his massive
serve. Tsitsipas’ poor record is a bit of an anomaly that he should be able to
overcome at some point. He has the talent.
The next highest seed
here is Felix Auger Aliassime (15) who has been in dreadful form, having
won only three matches since Indian Wells in March. Also here, Wimbledon
quarter-finalist Christopher Eubanks (28), and Francisco Cerundolo
(20) may get chances to shine.
Djokovic def Tsitsipas
Semis
Alcaraz def Medvedev
Djokovic def Paul
Final
Alcaraz def Djokovic
Expert Picks
Djokovic (5) – Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Joel Drucker
(Tennis Channel), Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis Channel), Gill Gross (Monday Match
Analysis), Alex Gruskin (Cracked Racquets)
Alcaraz (3) – Ed McGrogan (Tennis Channel), David Kane
(Tennis Channel), Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis Channel)
Sinner (1) – Pete Bodo (Tennis Channel)
Bookies
Decimal Odds from bet365.com on 24 Aug 2023
|
1 |
Djokovic |
2.2 |
|
2 |
Alcaraz |
2.62 |
|
3 |
DMedvedev |
9 |
|
4 |
Sinner |
13 |
|
5 |
AZverev |
26 |
|
6 |
Rune |
26 |
|
7 |
Tsitsipas |
26 |
|
8 |
CaRuud |
34 |
|
9 |
Fritz |
34 |
|
10 |
Berrettini |
41 |
|
11 |
Tiafoe |
41 |
|
12 |
Hurkacz |
41 |
|
13 |
Rublev |
51 |
|
14 |
Auger Aliassime |
51 |
|
15 |
SKorda |
51 |
|
16 |
AMurray |
61 |
|
17 |
Norrie |
67 |
|
18 |
Khachanov |
67 |
|
19 |
Eubanks |
67 |
|
20 |
Thiem |
67 |
|
21 |
Draper |
67 |
|
22 |
DeMinaur |
67 |
|
23 |
Wawrinka |
75 |
|
24 |
Nishikori |
75 |
|
25 |
Shelton |
81 |
|
26 |
Paul |
81 |
|
27 |
Dimitrov |
101 |
|
28 |
Griekspoor |
101 |
|
29 |
MaxPurcell |
101 |
|
30 |
Musetti |
126 |
|
31 |
Fils |
126 |
|
32 |
Wu |
126 |
|
33 |
Davidovich Fokina |
126 |
|
34 |
Schwartzman |
151 |
|
35 |
Raonic |
151 |
|
36 |
Humbert |
151 |
|
37 |
Monfils |
151 |
|
38 |
Karatsev |
151 |
|
39 |
Cressy |
151 |
|
40 |
Isner |
151 |
Comments
Post a Comment