2023 US Open Men – Draw Preview

The spectacular final we got to witness in Cincinnati between Djokovic and Alcaraz felt like it put those two players into the stratosphere.  Can the field bring them down to earth?

 

First Quarter

The big news of the draw reveal is that Carlos Alcaraz (1), Jannik Sinner (6), and Alexander Zverev (12) are in the same quarter.  Sinner was rated third or fourth by many commentators and odds-makers pre-draw, and Zverev fifth.  Having three of the top five favourites in one quarter should make for some exciting matches. However, I would have preferred a more balanced draw.

Zverev and Sinner are slated to meet in the fourth round.  Both hit hard and consistent ground strokes and defend well.  Zverev leads the head-to-head 3-1.  But it is Sinner who just won the Canada 1000. Zverev beat Medvedev in Cincinnati, so both Sinner and Zverev are in form. Both players have three wins over Alcaraz.  The good news for Alcaraz is that he can face only one of them.  There are some tricky early rounders for all these players, so there’s no guarantee they will meet, but I look forward to the clashes if they do.

Of the three, Alcaraz must be regarded as the clear favourite.  He is the titleholder both here and at Wimbledon, and the final he played with Djokovic at Cincinnati showed an incredible level.

Also here are veterans Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, and Grigor Dimitrov (19), along with teen talent Arthur Fils.

Alcaraz def Sinner

 

Second Quarter

Daniil Medvedev (3) heads this quarter, which means that four of the top five favourites are in the top half.  That equals a good draw for Djokovic.

Things could get tricky for Medvedev if he should meet Max Purcell in the second round.  Purcell is rising rapidly and pushed Alcaraz in Cincinnati. The third round could bring up Borna Coric (27), who enjoys a 4-3 head-to-head over Medvedev.  And the fourth round could pit Daniil against Alex De Minaur (13), who has two wins over Meddy.

The other half of this section looks fairly open.  Andrey Rublev (8) is the highest seed, but has a tricky opener against Emil Ruusuvuori, and an even trickier second against possibly Gael Monfils who is rounding back into form.  The third round might produce Matteo Berrettini who has made the second week the last four years at the US Open.  Next could be Karen Khachanov (11) who was in the semis last year.  Khachanov is returning from injury so I won’t have high expectations for him.  Rather, Hubert Hurkacz (17) might take his place.  Hurkacz had a match point on Alcaraz in Cincinnati, but couldn’t close the deal.  Also here are young Jack Draper, working his way back, and John Isner, age 38, who says he is retiring after this tournament.

Medvedev def Hurkacz

 

Third Quarter

The third quarter doesn’t have a clear favourite.  Of those here, Tommy Paul (14) had the best summer swing, claiming a win over Alcaraz in Canada and nearly doing it again in Cincinnati. 

Holger Rune (4) surprises me with a #4 seeding.  He made quarters at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon but didn’t win a single match in Canada or Cincy.  The talent is there, so I disregard his chances with hesitation, however there’s little to suggest now is the time for a deep run.  His record on outdoor hard-courts provides little encouragement.

Casper Ruud (5) was a finalist here last year but has mustered only one hard-court match win since Wimbledon.  With now three slam finals to his credit, he has to be in the running to claim this quarter. Perhaps best-of-five sets suits him.  He could meet Frances Tiafoe (10) in the fourth round.  Tiafoe was in the semis at the USO last year, but he’s had a forgettable summer hard-court swing.  Regardless, I think Tiafoe will thrive in the atmosphere of New York, and I expect the crowd will get behind him.  His first few rounds are not daunting, and if he can start to generate momentum he has a chance to go on another run.

Also here is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21) who is both talented and entertaining, and made the semis at the Canada 1000.  He could have a popcorn third-rounder with Paul.

Paul def Tiafoe

 

Fourth Quarter

There’s little we don’t know about Novak Djokovic’s tennis at this point. Yet the second seed continues to amaze with his incredible athleticism at age 36.  The victory at the Cincinnati 1000 showcased a broad range of undiminished skills.  I suspect that the loss to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final has Novak highly motivated.  He will want to prove that he’s still the best, that he can still win another slam title.  I also suspect that the victory over Alcaraz might have come one match too soon.  While it will have given Djokovic belief, it should also spur Alcaraz to dig even deeper.  And it is the young Spaniard who has more room and time to improve.  Djokovic must be aware that he will have limited chances to add to his slam tally.  Surely he will be motivated to put an insurance win between himself and Nadal (23 and 22 slams, respectively), and also to equal, and possibly exceed the 24 slams of Margaret Court.  The next two years will be pivotal, and then the window will likely close, if it hasn’t already.

His draw could hardly have been kinder.  Neither of the next two highest seeds, Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) and Taylor Fritz (9), have ever been past the third round at the US Open.  Tsitsipas has a nightmare first-rounder against returning Milos Raonic and his massive serve. Tsitsipas’ poor record is a bit of an anomaly that he should be able to overcome at some point.  He has the talent.

 The next highest seed here is Felix Auger Aliassime (15) who has been in dreadful form, having won only three matches since Indian Wells in March. Also here, Wimbledon quarter-finalist Christopher Eubanks (28), and Francisco Cerundolo (20) may get chances to shine.

Djokovic def Tsitsipas

 

Semis

Alcaraz def Medvedev

Djokovic def Paul

 

Final

Alcaraz def Djokovic

 

Expert Picks

Djokovic (5) – Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Joel Drucker (Tennis Channel), Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis Channel), Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis), Alex Gruskin (Cracked Racquets)

Alcaraz (3) – Ed McGrogan (Tennis Channel), David Kane (Tennis Channel), Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis Channel)

Sinner (1) – Pete Bodo (Tennis Channel)

 

Bookies

Decimal Odds from bet365.com on 24 Aug 2023

1	Djokovic	2.2
2	Alcaraz	2.62
3	DMedvedev	9
4	Sinner	13
5	AZverev	26
6	Rune	26
7	Tsitsipas	26
8	CaRuud	34
9	Fritz	34
10	Berrettini	41
11	Tiafoe	41
12	Hurkacz	41
13	Rublev	51
14	Auger Aliassime	51
15	SKorda	51
16	AMurray	61
17	Norrie	67
18	Khachanov	67
19	Eubanks	67
20	Thiem	67
21	Draper	67
22	DeMinaur	67
23	Wawrinka	75
24	Nishikori	75
25	Shelton	81
26	Paul	81
27	Dimitrov	101
28	Griekspoor	101
29	MaxPurcell	101
30	Musetti	126
31	Fils	126
32	Wu	126
33	Davidovich Fokina	126
34	Schwartzman	151
35	Raonic	151
36	Humbert	151
37	Monfils	151
38	Karatsev	151
39	Cressy	151
40	Isner	151