2023 US Open Women – Draw Preview

COCO!!

Coco?  Wait, she’s still a teenager?  And she beat Swiatek last week…

 

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek is world #1 and the defending champ.  She’s fast, she’s consistent, she’s got great groundstrokes.  She will be tough to beat.  Her first few rounds are manageable, but Jelena Ostapenko (seeded 20), possible fourth-round opponent, has a go-for-broke style that can beat anyone.

Surviving that, the real test could be Coco Gauff (6). Gauff is the fourth favourite of the bookies, just like last year.  She’d been having a so-so year until she got to the summer American hard-court swing. Then she claimed titles at the Washington 500 and Cincinnati 1000.

Odds-on pre-draw, Coco and Iga were my top two favourites, so I’m disappointed the draw has slotted them for the quarter-finals.  I’d like this to be a final.  Recency-bias has me favouring Gauff.  She’s had a hot summer and beat Swiatek last week. However, Iga had decent USO prep too, making semis in both Canada and Cincy, a significant improvement on last year when she won only one match at each.  And then she went on to win the Open last year, so she should be better now, no?

So these two players are my definite favourites for the title.  The match in Cincy was a close three-setter.  What I liked about Coco in that match was the confidence in the forehand.  Yes, it’s still a weakness, but with new coach Brad Gilbert in her corner, the forehand didn’t break down.  Gilbert emphasized her strengths and gave her enough belief in the forehand that an opponent going there might face a decent rally shot or even a screaming winner.  The shot produces errors too, but it’s become a lottery for opponents, and that’s enough to put Coco into the mix.  Her backhand is a serious weapon, and her movement is astonishing.  It looked like Coco had more game than Iga in Cincy.  But I’d say Iga’s floor is higher.

The main question with Coco is mental.  If she actually gets deep in the tournament, will she believe? Will the forehand hold up? And will she survive the early rounds?  There are some landmines – like Mirra Andreeva in the second round. The sixteen year-old made the fourth-round at Wimbledon and has big-time talent.  And then there’s the take-the-racket-out-of-your-hand power of Petra Kvitova (11), a potential fourth-rounder.

Also here, Caroline Wozniacki, returning after a three-year hiatus, could meet Kvitova second round. And Jennifer Brady, former Australian Open finalist, is healthy again after a two-year break.

Gauff def Swiatek

 

Second Quarter

Elena Rybakina (4) is a comfortable #3 in the yearly race, but I have some doubts about her for this US Open. Her year started brilliantly with a runner-up at the Australian, 1000 titles at Indian Wells and Rome, and a runner-up at the Miami 1000. But since withdrawing from Roland Garros, she’s looked off.  Her title defense at Wimbledon was derailed by Jabeur, and the North American hard-court swing was unconvincing.  Plus she’s never been past the US Open third round.  Regardless, she’s a huge talent, and if she’s healthy she’s in the mix.  But I don’t think she’s healthy. Her opener against Marta Kostyuk is far from straight-forward.

Maria Sakkari (8) has looked about average, for her, coming into this tournament.  So this quarter looks like opportunity-ville to me. French Open runner-up, Karolina Muchova (10) is here, too, and with a runner-up showing in Cincinnati, she’s my default pick for this quarter.  Also here is Beatriz Haddad Maia (19) who made semis at the French.

Victoria Azarenka (18) and Belinda Bencic (15) both have exceptional records at the US Open.  Bencic is 26 years old and the reigning Olympic champion, while Azarenka is a still competitive 34.

Muchova def Bencic

 

Third Quarter

Top seed here is Jessica Pegula at #3.  Pegula just claimed her second 1000 title, in Canada.  Notably she beat both Swiatek and Gauff in that run, and then lost only one game in blitzing Samsonova in the final.  She should be a top favourite… but I’m nervous about putting her there.  And it’s probably because she’s got six quarter-final losses in slams, and no wins.  In fact, she’s lost quarters in four of the last six slams.

However, this is her best surface, she’s at home, she’s in a good form, and she should have confidence.  This will be one of her best chances to break the quarter-final jinx.  But her draw has some tricky spots.  The first round is against the mercurial Camila Giorgi who won the Canada 1000 two years ago.  Pegula will need to be sharp to get through.

A resurgent Elina Svitolina (26) beat Swiatek in a semi-final run at Wimbledon and could face Pegula third round.  Madison Keys (17) or Liudmila Samsonova (14) are potential fourth-rounders for Pegula.

The other half of this quarter has slumping Caroline Garcia (7) and Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova (9) as the top two seeds. Given the expectation of a trough after the incredible high of winning her first slam, Vondrousova did surprisingly well in the summer hard-court swing, claiming five wins.  Her two losses came to Swiatek and Gauff.  In the Swiatek match in particular, she pushed Iga hard in the first set, and it seemed almost miraculous that Iga pulled out the tiebreak win.

Also here, Canadians Bianca Andreescu and Leylah Fernandez could meet in the second round.

Pegula def Vondrousova

 

Fourth Quarter

This quarter is dominated, on paper, by Aryna Sabalenka (2) and Ons Jabeur (5).  Which is not to say that they’re guaranteed to meet in the quarters.  There are other good players here too, like Barbora Krejcikova (12), Daria Kasatkina (13), Donna Vekic (21), Qinwen Zheng (23), and Marie Bouzkova (31).  Sure they could take out a top player, but they don’t feel, to me, like threats for the title. (Famous last words.)

So back to Sabalenka and Jabeur: they’re the favourites but it feels like they have some question marks.  For Jabeur it’s the psychological hangover of the Wimbledon final loss.  It was her third slam final, and she was the favoured to win.  And it’s not that Vondrousova didn’t deserve to win, but Jabeur just totally over-played.  She was too eager, went for too much, and basically handed the match over on a platter.  Vondrousova just had to not make too many mistakes.  And it was so obvious how absolutely crushed Jabeur was by the loss. So, has she recovered?  Will she have the belief to put together another amazing run like she had at Wimbledon when she beat the top favourites?

With Sabalenka I am a little under-whelmed by her most recent results.  I’m probably nit-picking.  Sabalenka took the Madrid 1000 over Swiatek, and won her first slam title, in Australia.  At the other two slams she made semis.  She leads the yearly race and could become world #1 if she equals or betters Swiatek’s performance at this US Open, and with Swiatek’s tough draw, Sabalenka as #1 is a real possibility in two week’s time.

But she hasn’t taken a title in her last six tournaments. Granted she’s been losing to top-shelf players.  She’s strongest on hard, and with a decent draw, she’s a real threat for this title.  But if Jabeur can get her head together she can trouble Aryna.

Sabalenka def Jabeur

 

Semi-finals

Gauff def Muchova

Sabalenka def Pegula. On the other hand, somehow I can see Pegula in the final. It surprises me…

 

Final

Gauff def Sabalenka

 

Expert Picks from Tennis.com

Swiatek (2) – Ed McGrogan, Joel Drucker
Sabalenka (2) – Steve Tignor, David Kane
Gauff (2) – Matt Fitzgerald, Peter Bodo
Rybakina (1) – Stephanie Livaudais

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 24 Aug 2023

1	Swiatek	3.25
2	Sabalenka	5.5
3	Rybakina	8
4	Gauff	8
5	Pegula	11
6	Jabeur	21
7	Muchova	21
8	Vondrousova	26
9	Samsonova	34
10	MAndreeva	41
11	Garcia	51
12	VKudermetova	51
13	Bencic	51
14	Sakkari	51
15	Haddad Maia	51
16	Collins	51
17	Svitolina	51
18	Keys	51
19	Andreescu	51
20	Ostapenko	51
21	QZheng	67
22	Krejcikova	81
23	Kasatkina	81
24	LFernandez	101
25	Potapova	101
26	Brady	101
27	KaPliskova	101
28	Badosa	101
29	LFruhvirtova	101
30	Azarenka	101
31	Alexandrova	101
32	Wozniacki	101
33	Tauson	101
34	Kenin	101
35	Noskova	151
36	Stephens	151
37	Parks	151
38	Linette	151
39	Kostyuk	151