2024 US Open Women Preview

Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite for this US Open on hard courts: the bookies and pundits agree.  She just won Cincinnati last, I mean…, ‘this’ week. She won the last hard court slam (Aus Open).  She’s in form and hard is her best surface.

But this is women’s tennis where anything can happen and there have been some other strong performances to consider… like Jessica Pegula, who just won Canada and was runner-up in Cincy. Or Qinwen Zheng who’s fresh off an Olympics victory replete with a defeat of Swiatek on clay.  And of course there’s Swiatek, #1 player by a significant points margin.  Not to mention last year’s winner, Coco Gauff.  Can Sabalenka triumph over them all?

 

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek ends up being the top pick or close to it in every tournament she plays.  Yet most of them she doesn’t win.  She’s a lot more bankable on clay.  But this is hard court and I just have a feeling, after disappointments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and Cincinnati, that she’s not in a winning mood right now.  I’m not sure who will beat her, but a fourth-round battle with Mirra Andreeva (seeded #21) is a definite possibility.

The 17-year old Andreeva is at a career-high #21 this week. She narrowly lost to Swiatek 5-7 in the third last week, and notched a win over Sabalenka in Paris this year.  She’s growing into her body.  She’s already got a great mind for tennis and as she gets physically stronger she’ll only become more formidable. A break-through looks inevitable, but when?

Danielle Collins (11), is also in this quarter and has been having a fine year.  She said this will be her last US Open, can she make it a career-best finish as well, meaning quarters or higher?

Diana Shnaider (18) is having a break-out year:  she’s already won three tournaments and made the semis in Canada last week.  This will be her first US Open main draw.

Rounding out the quarter is #6 seed, Jessica Pegula. After a middling year, Pegula has turned on the after-burners in the last two weeks, defending her 1000 in Canada and making the 1000 final in Cincinnati.  Only Sabalenka could challenge her for the title of ‘most in-form player.’  She trails Swiatek in their head-to-head 3 matches to 6, but she does have the three wins, which is significant.  All her wins were on hard court.  Rumour has it the US Open courts are playing a little slower this year than last year, and that should favour Swiatek.  But the way Pegula has been playing, I fancy her to break her quarter-final curse (six slam quarters without a win).

Popcorn first-rounders:
Former champ Raducanu vs former Aus Open winner Kenin;
Samsonova (16) vs former #12 Qiang Wang who hasn’t played a slam match in over two years;
18-year old Taylah Preston vs former slam runner-up Pavlyuchenkova.

Pegula def Swiatek

 

Second Quarter

This quarter looks wild to me.  The top half of it features #4 seed Elena Rybakina, who’s been inconsistent of late, and the bottom half has seven former slam finalists in it, tightly bunched together.

Rybakina had a wonderful first third of the year, winning three titles from five finals.  But since then, she’s struggled to put together consistent results and stay healthy.  She appeared to be on her way to a second Wimbledon crown before being derailed by an inspired Krejcikova in a semi-final third-set heart-breaker.  Her subsequent loss to Leylah Fernandez in her first match in Cincy was a little more puzzling. 

Surprisingly, Rybakina has never made it past the third round at the US Open in five visits.  But there isn’t a lot standing in her path to the quarter-finals.  Caroline Wozniacki has been in two finals here, but that seems a lifetime ago.

Naomi Osaka is a two-time US Open winner but her comeback from motherhood last year gets a rough handshake with a first-rounder against former Roland Garros champ Jelena Ostapenko (10).  The balls will suffer in this slug-fest between two of the hardest hitters on tour.  Ostapenko beat Swiatek in the fourth-round last year before disintegrating against Gauff in the quarters.

The winner could face last year’s Roland Garros runner-up, Karolina Muchova, in the second round, and Leylah Fernandez (23), a former US Open runner-up in the third.

Meanwhile, another Canadian, Bianca Andreescu, winner here in 2019, opens against this year’s runner-up at both the French and Wimbledon, Jasmine Paolini (5).  Andreescu keeps looking like she’s about to have another break-through, but then never quite pulls it off.  Paolini has had a blistering summer, to follow up her 1000 title in Dubai (on hard) in February.  Paolini did not look like her world-beating self in recent losses to Schmiedlova and Andreeva.  If she can find just a whisker of her French and Wimbledon form, this quarter could be hers… providing of course, she can get by Andreescu in the first, the ever-feisty Putintseva in the third (possibly), and a second determined Canadian, Leylah, in the fourth.

Popcorn first-rounders:
Ostapenko (10) vs Osaka
Putintseva (28) vs up and coming Czech Linda Noskova
Andreescu vs Paolini (5)

Paolini def Rybakina

 

Third Quarter

The defending champion, Coco Gauff (3), has not been having a terrible year.  She’s fifth in the yearly race, but it does feel like she’s a long way from last year’s title-winning form. The question is, can she still turn her year around?  She went on a hard-court spree last year.  This year she did defend one of her titles, in Auckland in January.  It’s not unusual for first time slam champs to go through a sophomore fallow period.  Is there any reason to hope that trough is ending for Gauff?

Barbora Krejcikova (8) is fresh off an out-of-nowhere Wimbledon victory.  The last time she won a slam out of nowhere (2021 French) she followed it up with her best-ever US Open showing.  Can she do it again?

The nearest seed is Paula Badosa (26) who is finally re-finding form after struggles with injury and illness.  The former #2 is back to #27 (from #139 in May) on the back of a title at the 500 in Washington and the semis in Cincy.

Victoria Azarenka (20) is a three-time finalist at this event although we rarely see her best tennis these days.  Likewise is Sloane Stephens, unseeded, champ here in 2017.

A name for the future could belong to Emma Navarro (13).  The 23-year old American is just, ever so gradually, getting better and better.

Navarro def Badosa

 

Fourth Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka (2) has been steadily improving at the US Open.  After two consecutive semi-final appearances, she made the final last year, and took the first set. Her hard-hitting game can be over-whelming, even for the best players in the world, like Swiatek last week in Cincinnati.  It takes a superlative defender, like Coco Gauff in last year’s final, to perturb her when Aryna is ‘on.’  Otherwise it seems like only she can beat herself.

Her main opposition could come from Olympic gold medalist, Qinwen Zheng (7).  Zheng had a break-out performance at the Australian Open, making the final before losing to Sabalenka.  Zheng can hit with the best of them, but I wonder if she will have a flat spot in her results as the enormity of her recent accomplishment sinks in.  A future slam crown looks likely to me, but I’m not sure now is the time.

One of the shocks of the draw was seeing who Zheng’s first round opponent was, Amanda Anisimova. Anisimova was one of my pre-tournament unseeded favourites.  The former Roland Garros semi-finalist, just made the final at the 1000 in Canada, and seemed to be back in-form, deploying her astonishing backhand to deadly effect.  A first round against Zheng is terrible luck for both competitors.

Nearby is Donna Vekic (24), silver-medalist at the Olympics and semi-finalist at Wimbledon. The 28-year old seems finally to be realizing her potential.  It would not be surprising if she retreats a little after such a successful summer.

Madison Keys (14), a former finalist here, is always dangerous on these courts.

Sabalenka def Zheng

 

Semi-finals

My semi-finalists (with the exception of Sabalenka) would have seemed out-landish to me a few months ago, but here we are.

Pegula def Paolini

Sabalenka def Navarro

 

Final

Sabalenka def Pegula

If Sabalenka does win, it would be her third slam title, which is not far behind Swiatek with five.  If she holds two slam titles, Sabalenka would make a strong case for #1 for the year.

 

Expert Picks

Sabalenka – 7 picks – Jon Wertheim, Steve Tignor, Ed McGrogan, Joel Drucker, David Kane, Stephanie Livaudais, Liya Davidov

Swiatek – 2 picks – Matt Fitzgerald, Peter Bodo

 

Odds

From bet365.com on 21 Aug 2024:

1	Sabalenka	3.75
2	Swiatek	4.5
3	Rybakina	9
4	Gauff	9.5
5	Pegula	15
6	Osaka	21
7	QZheng	23
8	MAndreeva	23
9	Collins	26
10	Paolini	26
11	Svitolina	34
12	Andreescu	34
13	Shnaider	34
14	Krejcikova	41
15	Raducanu	41
16	Keys	41
17	Navarro	41
18	Anisimova	41
19	Vekic	41
20	Jabeur	51
21	Muchova	51
22	Ostapenko	51
23	Badosa	51
24	Kasatkina	51
25	Sakkari	67
26	Halep	67
27	LFernandez	67
28	Wozniacki	81
29	Noskova	81
30	Kalinskaya	81
31	Azarenka	81
32	Garcia	81
33	Kostyuk	81
34	Boulter	81