Men’s Tennis 2024 Yearend and 2025 Predictions

2 January 2025

 

The Big Three is dead!  Long Live the Big Three!  For the first time in 22 years, none of Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic are in the yearend top three.  Instead we have a new set – Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev. 

Now it would certainly be debatable if Zverev has the significance of the other two. Afterall, he still has not won a slam and he’s half a generation older than his younger counterparts.  At age 27 he should be mid-arc in career accomplishments – but in some metrics he’s just starting out.  However, his superlative play over the year landed him at #2 and who are we to argue with the algorithm?

One of the biggest clouds hanging over the coming year is the fate of Jannik Sinner.  By all accounts he is the top dog, and primed to have another banner year, but whether or not he will get to play depends on what happens with WADA (the World Anti-Doping Agency).  Anyone can see he’s essentially innocent – I mean, a massage cream – let’s be serious.  He would be an idiot to risk his career and future on anything resembling doping, especially on something like a skin lotion that conveys no substantial advantage.  He’s already been found ‘unintentional,’ yet the WADA appeal looms.

On the Alcaraz front we have a player that won two slams in 2024 and is somehow ranked #3.  The guy is lightning when he’s on and an electric personality on court, but clearly there are some consistency issues.

So there’s our Big Three.  What will 2025 hold?

 

Story of 2024

When Sinner and Daniil Medvedev played no warm-ups before the Australian Open, aspersions were cast on their planning, yet there they were contesting the final – hard to argue with success.  A few commentators tried to excuse Djokovic’s beatdown at the hands of Sinner in the semis as poor play from the Serb, but I took at as an indication of form and immense pressure from the Italian.  Medvedev came out on fire in the final, but despite holding a two set lead (he was in the same situation just two years earlier), Sinner dug in to lift his first slam crown.

Medvedev has now contested six slam finals – which is showing what a fine player he is.  He’s had the misfortune to play in the era of the Big Three, but fortunate perhaps to play during the window between their dominance and what looks like the coming hegemony of Sinner and Alcaraz.

With 1 slam from 6 slam finals who are Medvedev’s comparables?  Maybe Andy Roddick – 1 slam from 5 finals?  I have a metric called top ten index, which shows up in this table.  Putting Medvedev and Zverev in is maybe a little premature since their careers aren’t done yet, but I think it gives us an idea of where they sit.  Is Medvedev the best 1-slam winner ever?

Top Ten Index (Computer ranking since 1975)	Slams finals
Tier 1 – Federer 152, Nadal 150, Djokovic 149	31, 30, 37
Tier 2 – Connors 130, Lendl 105, Sampras 96, Agassi 94	15, 19, 18, 15
Tier 3 – McEnroe 81, Becker 79, Edberg 74, Borg 69, AMurray 67	11, 10, 11, 16, 11
Tier 4 – (Vilas 61), Wilander 52, Roddick 48, AZverev 43, Chang 42, Kafelnikov 41, DMedvedev 40, Hewitt 39	(8), 11, 5, 2, 4, 3, 6, 4
Tier 5 – Ferrer 35, Davydenko 32, Gerulaits 30, Courier 30, etc	1, 0, 3, 7, …

 

Grigor Dimitrov won the first title of the year in Brisbane. 2024 saw him play four ATP finals and return to the yearend top ten.  Tommy Paul and Ugo Humbert also reached four finals each but finished just outside that august number at #12 and #14, respectively. Sebastien Baez won two titles on the South American swing.

Alex De Minaur lost the Rotterdam final to Sinner but won the Acapulco 500.  De Minaur started the year off with a bang by beating Djokovic, Zverev, and Fritz at the United Cup.  He went on to claim two ATP titles during the year and made the quarter-finals at the last three slams.  He’s elevated a level, and finishes yearend #9.  Had it not been for a hip injury that had him withdrawing from his quarter-final at Wimbledon, he might be even higher.

Ben Shelton won the US Clay Court title in Houston but did not have the breakout year I had predicted after his deep slam runs in 2023. Carlos Alcaraz took the 1000 in Indian Wells, while Sinner took the 1000 in Miami.

When the tour moved to European clay, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud both made the finals of both Monte Carlo and Barcelona, with Tsitsipas taking the 1000, and Ruud the Spanish 500.

Andrey Rublev took the 1000 in Madrid, his second title of the year, all but ensuring a fifth yearend top-ten finish.  I’ve consistently under-estimated him, and perhaps his ceiling really is slam quarter-final.  He’s got the all-time record for men and women with 10 slam quarters without being able to penetrate the semis.  Will 2025 be the year?

Alexander Zverev won the 1000 in Rome, moving him into contention for the French Open title.  As luck would have it, the draw gods arranged to have Zverev and Rafael Nadal play in the first round.  Nadal had not exactly been burning up the tour, but he did make fourth round in Madrid and entered Roland Garros with 5 wins to 3 losses on clay for the year.

But still, it’s Roland Garros, where Nadal was sporting a 112-3 win-loss record, the best in history.  I suspect Nadal might have won several rounds if he’d had a favourable draw, but he went down in the first round to the in-form Zverev, in three close sets.  As if to say as much, Rafa then played his way to the final of the Bastad 250 on clay.

Nadal’s draw luck was not much better at the Olympics, also played at Roland Garros.  He had the misfortune to draw Djokovic in the second round.  He played one more match for the year, at the Davis Cup in Malaga in November, announcing his retirement from tennis. 

Nadal doesn’t have the records for the most slams, or weeks at #1, and although his clay records may stand forever, I believe there is one statistic that highlights his greatness.  He was very tough to beat, and rarely lost to unworthy opponents.  His resolve and mental ferocity were legendary.  He was a child prodigy who started winning big at a very young age.  And he played into his late 30’s.  The stat he posts that beats all competitors, that is not a clay-specialized stat, is best winning percentage on all surfaces over 20 years.  It is only when we consider a period as long as 20 years that Rafa comes to top this metric.  He does not finish on top at 10 or 12 or 15 years.  Here it is:

Best winning W/L ratio for 20 years	For 16 years	For 12 years
1 Nadal (2005-24) 1035-199 (5.20 W/L)	1 Federer 2004-19 (6.26)	1 Connors 1973-84 (7.19)
2 Djokovic (2005-24) 1122-219 (5.12)	2 Djokovic 2009-24 (6.10)	2 Djokovic 2011-22 (7.00)
3 Connors (1972-91) 1123-240 (5.10)	3 Connors 1973-88 (5.94)	3 Federer 2004-16 (6.43)
4 Federer (2000-19) 1222-250 (4.89)	4 Nadal 2005-20 (5.48)	4 Lendl 1980-91 (6.15)
5 Agassi (1987-2006) 866-267 (3.24)	5 Lendl 1978-93 (4.64)	5 McEnroe 1978-89 (5.77)

The criteria for a year’s inclusion were that at least 15 matches must have been played in the first and last years of the range

Zverev marched all the way to the French Open final, his second slam final, but was again disappointed, this time by Carlos Alcaraz.  Alcaraz claimed his third and fourth slam titles this year, the youngest to win slams on three different surfaces. 2024 really highlighted what a big match player he is.  He won two slams and two 1000s.  Almost as significant was that he beat Jannik Sinner all three times they played.

Alcaraz can play extremely flashy tennis with amazing defensive gets and blistering winners. But he’s also a confidence player. After an important loss he can lose confidence and throw in a couple bad months of results.  I’ll be looking for him to show more consistency in 2025, because with the titles he posted he should probably be ranked higher.

The only really big match Alcaraz lost this year was the Olympic final to Novak Djokovic.   Djokovic suffered a bizarre water bottle to the head accident in Rome that knocked him to the ground.  Concerns over his health were largely dispelled as he worked his way through the Roland Garros draw. But then he tore a meniscus in his knee and had to withdraw before playing his quarter-final match.  He immediately underwent surgery and appeared likely to miss Wimbledon.  But inhumanly, he instead limped through the early rounds and somehow improved all the way to the final.

But Alcaraz was at a different level than the rest of the competition and drubbed Djokovic in the final.  When both men met again in the Olympics final in Paris a few weeks later, I expected the same result.  But Djokovic’s knee had had a few more weeks to recuperate and he came through one of the best matches of the year in two tiebreaks.  It was a monumental achievement at his age (37), made all the more pressure-filled since he had stated it as a goal at the beginning of the year.  The internet lit up with the idea that he had completed tennis, and it’s hard to argue.  Perhaps 2025 will see him win his 100^th tournament.

Matteo Berrettini won two tournaments in the lead up to the US Open, totalling three for the year. Hopefully he will be less snake-bitten health-wise in the coming years.

Tournament Titles 2024	Titles	Finals	Points from finals
JSinner	8	9	9830
Alcaraz	4	5	5500
TPaul	3	4	1165
Berrettini	3	4	915
AZverev	2	4	3630
Fritz	2	5	2965
Rublev	2	3	1900
CaRuud	2	5	1895
Humbert	2	4	1730
De Minaur	2	3	1080

 

Just before the US Open, Jannik Sinner revealed that he had tested positive in March for a banned substance.  He was found to “bear no fault or negligence” and it was revealed that the offending substance had come through a massage cream. Not knowing what the ruling would be for months may have weighed on the seemingly imperturbable Italian.  With the truth out, Sinner resumed his sterling play from the first three months of the year, taking the 1000s in Cincinnati and Shanghai, the US Open, and the ATP Finals in Torino.  His point total for the year was more than 50% greater than that of second place Zverev.  For good measure he lifted Italy to a second straight Davis Cup and finished the year with a 73-6 win-loss record, which is the ninth best season in the Open Era (since 1968).

Three young players announced they are moving up the ranks and could be trouble in 2025. Jack Draper, Arthur Fils, and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard each won two titles in 2024.

No tale of the year would be complete without mentioning the significant players who retired in 2024.  In addition to Nadal, Andy Murray finally called time on his career.  He was a deserved member of the Big Four. His 11 slam finals are tied for ninth-most in the Open Era.  Dominic Thiem, the 2020 US Open winner, and Juan Martin Del Potro, the 2009 champion, also officially retired.

 

Top Ten Predictions

At the end of 2023 I made predictions for 2024, as follows:

2023 Prediction	2024 Actual Rank
1 Alcaraz	3
2 Djokovic	7
3 JSinner	1
4 DMedvedev	5
5 Rune	13
6 AZverev	2
7 Rublev	8
8 Tsitsipas	11
9 Shelton	21
10 Nadal	153

It’s a fairly respectable set of guesses, with Nadal being the only real outlier.  Shelton did not do as well as I expected and my re-evaluation of him has lowered expectations a bit, not just for next year, but longer term.  I think getting into the top ten is a good aspiration for him.

Turning it around and looking at the actual top ten for 2024, what predictions had I made for them?

2024 Actual	2023 Prediction
1 JSinner	3
2 AZverev	6
3 Alcaraz	1
4 Fritz	13
5 DMedvedev	4
6 CaRuud	12
7 Djokovic	2
8 Rublev	7
9 De Minaur	15
10 Dimitrov	22

 

To have 9 out of 10 coming from my predicted top 15 feels good. But how will I do for the coming year?

 

Predictions for 2025

Jannik Sinner was sensational in 2024.  The biggest question may be whether or nor he is allowed to play as a result of the WADA appeal.  If he gets a three month ban (say) will he be able to amass enough points to stay at #1?  The other thought is that with such an exceptional 2024, does he have nowhere to go but down?  His mentality seems solid, and so are his strokes.  Given what he showed us in 2024, it’s hard to see who can do better.

The one man who does beat him regularly is Carlos Alcaraz.  Alcaraz is in rare company with four slam titles by age 21.  The brilliant play is there.  Can he post consistent results throughout the year? I expect he will be improving on that front.

Alexander Zverev served an insane 71% of first serves in for 2024. His backhand is still a fortress, his forehand is more reliable than it was, and his volleys have improved.  It’s hard to see what more he could do.  But his two young rivals are just oh so good.  Zverev could improve his game in 2025 and yet drop a place to #3.

Taylor Fritz really impressed me in 2024.  His breakthrough to a slam final at the US Open is the last in a long line of gradual improvements.  I’d like to think he could keep moving up, but where is the room?

Daniil Medvedev is still an exceptional player but showed a few cracks in 2024.  I don’t see him moving up anymore.  He could still win a slam, but he’d need a good draw.

Novak Djokovic could turn it on all year and finish #1.  He’s shown over the last 18 years that his talent is immense.  But he is getting old, and the body may not hold up to that sort of rigour.  And there’s also motivation to consider.  There are few records left to break – maybe a stand alone lead over Margaret Court with 25 slams, or catching Federer’s 103 ATP titles, or Connors’ 109.  Novak has 99. New coach Andy Murray should help with the motivation, but I expect Djokovic will play a lighter schedule on what may be his last year on tour.

Andrey Rublev has been in the top 10 the last five years.  I used to leave him off every year, but I’ve learned my lesson.  Ditto Casper Ruud who’s been in the top 10 three of the last four years.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had a tough year last year, falling out of the yearend top ten after a five-year sojourn there.  Picking up his third 1000 title, all at Monte Carlo, had to feel good though.  A deep run at the French Open, or even a title there is within reason.

Alex De Minaur had his best year in 2024 and suffered a major injury.  If he can stay healthy in 2025 he could do even better.

Holger Rune has talent.  Everyone can see it. But in tennis, mental toughness and wisdom in shot selection is as important as physical talent.  Will he learn to play the game with his mind?

Jack Draper made great strides forward in 2024.  The 23 year-old looks to be putting together all the components of the game and should threaten the top players.

Here now is my predicted top ten for 2025

2025 Prediction	Current Rank
1 JSinner	1
2 Alcaraz	3
2 AZverev	2
4 Fritz	4
5 DMedvedev	5
6 Djokovic	7
7 Rublev	8
8 CaRuud	6
9 Tsitsipas	11
10 De Minaur	9

 

It’s not very exciting perhaps to pick nine of the current top ten, but for the most part it’s a fairly young group that should still be consolidating its talent.  I do expect there to be moves upward by young players, but they’re showing up just a bit lower in my predicted rankings.

For 11 to 20 I’m guessing at, in order: Rune, Draper, Dimitrov, Fils, Paul, Mpetshi Perricard, Khachanov, Hurkacz, Berrettini, and Humbert.

For 21-30 I’ll take: Shelton, Tiafoe, Musetti, Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov, Mensik, Fonseca, Popyrin, Lehecka, and FCerundolo.

 

Slam Predictions

Australian Open Prediction

After winning both hard court majors to total seven hard court titles in 2024, it’s tough to predict against Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open. But ten-time AO champ Djokovic should not be counted out.  It will be interesting to see if having Andy Murray in his camp will give him the motivation to win another slam.  Margaret Court’s equal total of 24 was a lot easier to accumulate in the era she played, but I’m sure Djokovic would love to hold the top spot to himself, and remove all asterisks. 

Carlos Alcaraz could of course rise up and vanquish all comers – but the Australian has been his weakest slam to date.  Will he be the youngest to claim all four?  Daniil Medvedev has been in three AO finals, could he make it another?

	2025 Charles AO Prediction	From Bookies Odds
1	JSinner	JSinner
2	Djokovic	Alcaraz
3	Alcaraz	Djokovic
4	DMedvedev	AZverev
5	AZverev	DMedvedev
6	Tsitsipas	Tsitsipas
7	Fritz	Fritz
8	Rublev	Rune
9	De Minaur	Fils
10	Dimitrov	Shelton
11	Khachanov	De Minaur
12	JDraper	Rublev

All bookies odds are from Bet 365.com on 28 Dec 2024.

 

Roland Garros Prediction

Alcaraz was impressive in taking last year’s title.  He’s also won two 1000’s on clay, and two titles at the 500 in Barcelona. But again, Djokovic cannot be ignored.  The three-time champ is on a 17-match win streak on site, if the Olympics are included.  It’s very tempting to put Zverev in my third favourite slot, but despite less pedigree than Zverev, I think Sinner’s heavier strokes and mental toughness put him in better stead. Tsitsipas is a former finalist here and thrives on clay, where a little more time helps his backhand.  Casper Ruud has been in two finals in Paris and deserves mention.

	2025 Charles RG Prediction	From Bookies Odds
1	Alcaraz	Alcaraz
2	Djokovic	JSinner
3	JSinner	Djokovic
4	AZverev	AZverev
5	Tsitsipas	Tsitsipas
6	CaRuud	CaRuud
7	Rune	Rune
8	Fritz	DMedvedev
9	DMedvedev	Rublev
10	Khachanov	JDraper
11	Rublev	Hurkacz
12	Fils	De Minaur

 

Wimbledon Prediction

Any idea that Alcaraz’s first victory at Wimbledon might be a one-off were dismissed when he won it again, dismissing Djokovic comprehensively.  The quick surface seems to suit his meteoric game.  Djokovic has been in the last six Wimbledon finals and ten of the last thirteen, so cannot be counted out either. 

The pool of good grass players gets a little shallower after the top two. Sinner has been to the quarters or better the last three years, and Fritz has two quarter-finals to his name, so I’ll take them for the semis.  Medvedev has done well at Wimbledon the last two years but was stymied by Alcaraz both times.

	2025 Charles Wim Prediction	From Bookies Odds
1	Alcaraz	Alcaraz
2	Djokovic	JSinner
3	JSinner	Djokovic
4	Fritz	JDraper
5	DMedvedev	AZverev
6	Hurkacz	DMedvedev
7	AZverev	Musetti
8	De Minaur	De Minaur
9	Dimitrov	Hurkacz
10	Berrettini	Dimitrov
11	Kyrgios	Fritz
12	JDraper	Berrettini

 

US Open Prediction

For the same hard court reasons as the Australian, the defending champion, Jannik Sinner, is my top pick for the US Open. 2022 champ Alcaraz is my second pick, and Djokovic is third.  It’s hard to know if Djokovic will play a full year, but even if he doesn’t he should be training to peak for the slams so I’m expecting good performances from him.

Alexander Zverev played so well in 2024, it’s hard not to pick him on a neutral surface – especially on the site of previous slam final run.  Daniil Medvedev has been to three finals here and should not be counted out, despite slipping ever so slightly in 2024. I’d like to put last year’s finalist, Fritz, higher in my estimation and maybe he will prove me wrong.  The competition is just so tough.

	2025 Charles USO Prediction	From Bookies Odds
1	JSinner	JSinner
2	Alcaraz	Alcaraz
3	Djokovic	Djokovic
4	AZverev	AZverev
5	DMedvedev	DMedvedev
6	Fritz	Fritz
7	Rublev	JDraper
8	JDraper	Tiafoe
9	De Minaur	Rune
10	Khachanov	Tsitsipas
11	Tiafoe	Rublev
12	Shelton	CaRuud

 

Final Thoughts

In 2024 we have seen the emergence of a dominant duo, Sinner and Alcaraz.  As long as Djokovic is around to challenge them, the situation at the top may be stable.  But history tells us that the top two are usually joined by a third – what happens as Djokovic winds down?  I don’t think it will be Zverev.  So who will it be? Someone we haven’t heard of, or just haven’t sufficiently noticed yet?  I’m expecting more dominance from Sinner and Alcaraz and curious if Djokovic can rise up one more time. And I’ll be scanning the horizon for the next great talent.