2025 Australian Open Men’s Preview

It appears that Jannik Sinner will be allowed to play the Australian Open and, knowing that his playing time might be restricted this year, he will be eager to make the most of it.  The defending champion is on a 14-match win streak on hard courts and went 53-3 on the surface last year, so he is certainly the favourite to defend his AO title.

But there are other strong contenders, not least of whom is Novak Djokovic, 10-time champion at the event. And there’s also Carlos Alcaraz who beat Sinner three times last year, world #2 Alexander Zverev, and Daniill Medvedev who’s been in three of the last four finals in Melbourne.  Can any of them, or one of the young up-and-comers, stop Sinner?

 

Top Quarter

Jannik Sinner (1) is the top seed and has a potentially tricky opening against Nicolas Jarry who has a career-high rank of 16 and has won three ATP titles.

Sinner’s countryman, Matteo Berrettini, was a Wimbledon finalist in 2021, and has been ranked at #6.  He’s in a knotty section close to Holger Rune (seeded 13) and Hubert Hurkacz (18), who have also been ranked #6 or higher.  Rune in particular was anointed by many as the next big thing, but has stalled in the last year.  Regardless, one of these could provide a very worthy opponent for Sinner in the fourth round.

The other half contains former #3 Stefanos Tsitsipas (11), Alex de Minaur (8), and Karen Khachanov (18) who has made the second week at a slam eleven times, twice making the semi-finals.  De Minaur in particular had a banner year last year and is especially quick and tough.

All this makes for a dense quarter of fierce competitors and tough outs.  However, none of these are likely title contenders except Sinner.

Sinner def de Minaur

 

Second Quarter

Top seed in this quarter is Taylor Fritz at #4. He was a finalist in the last hard court slam, as well as at the Tour Finals in November, so he must be taken seriously. He’s only ever made the quarters in Melbourne once, last year.  Can he do better now that he’s a top four seed?  He opens against tricky Jensen Brooksby who is coming back after missing most of the last two years. 

Fritz’s third round could be against the winner of a popcorn first-rounder between 38-year old Gael Monfils and Giovanni Mpetshi-Perricard, one of the deadliest servers in the game. Also nearby are Ben Shelton (21) who splashed here two years ago in the quarter-finals, and Lorenzo Musetti (16) semi-finalist from Wimbledon last year.

Andrey Rublev (9) has been to the quarters at the AO three of the last four years. He’s got an interesting opener against the latest debutante, Joao Fonseca.  Fonseca is just 18 and won the Next Gen Finals in December behind massive grand strokes. Frances Tiafoe (17) was in the semis of the last hard court slam at the US Open, but only once made the quarters in Australia, six years ago.

Maybe the most serious threat in this quarter is Daniil Medvedev (5) who has produced a two-sets-to-love lead in two Australian Open finals.  But Medvedev was not in good form at the end of last year, finishing on 7-7, wins vs losses.  He’s also just become a father for the second time and arrives in Melbourne with no warm-up play.

If Fritz had a better history at this event I might choose him based on current form. An unexpected winner like Mpetshi-Perricard is a possibility, but ultimately, Medvedev’s reasonably soft draw should allow him to play into shape and make the semi.  With a lot of hand-wringing…

Medvedev def Fritz

 

Third Quarter

Ten-time AO title holder, Novak Djokovic, lands as the #7 seed in 2025.  He’s only been seeded this low once since 2007.  However, this is the 37-year old version of Djokovic and he did not look too good last week in losing to serve-bot Reilly Opelka.  They could meet again in the third round.  First Opelka may need to play Tomas Machac (26) whose talent is undeniable. Machac is not the most mentally reliable player perhaps, but on his day he can be a nightmare for anyone.

His Czech mate, Jiri Lehecka (24) just won a tournament in Brisbane, and is also a real danger. In the third round he could face Grigor Dimitrov (10) who had a career resurgence last year.

Jack Draper (15) seems every pundit’s pick to make the top ten in 2025. I may not be convinced but I won’t deny he is very good and dangerous. Sebastian Korda (22) is into the final of Adelaide this week. He is praised by many tennis experts for the cleanness of his strokes and often predicted to finally ‘break out.’  However, he has only once been to a slam quarter-final.

Jordan Thompson (27) had a career year in 2024, and made the fourth round of the US Open.  He could face a tough third-round match against Carlos Alcaraz (3). Alcaraz has now won three of the four slams, only missing an Australian title.  At only age 21, his talent is immense.  The precocity of his game, filled with daring winners and impossible gets, means he can beat anyone.

In some ways, Alcaraz seems the most talented player in the game today.  When his head is clear, he is the favourite in any match.  However he seems to suffer from occasional lapses, sometimes going into months-long slumps.  So far, he has not found his best form in Australia: his best result is a quarter-final last year. Is there something about the location or timing in the calendar that thwarts Alcaraz in Melbourne?  Will he be able to go farther this year?

Novak Djokovic enjoys a thin margin in the head-to-head with Alcaraz, four matches to three.  The two have played some epic and consequential matches including the Olympic final last year and the Wimbledon title match the year before.  Djokovic would seem the favourite given the location and history.  Their current form is probably equally uncertain.  I’ll lean on experience for this one, but it could go either way.

Djokovic def Alcaraz

 

Fourth Quarter

Casper Ruud (6) has been in three slam finals but has never been past the fourth round at the Australian Open. He could play rising Czech, Jakub Mensik, in the second round.  Felix Auger Aliassime (29) is into the final of Adelaide this week. He could face a re-match against Tommy Paul (12) in the fourth round.

Nick Kyrgios is scheduled to return to grand slam play for the first time in two years, as an unseeded player.  Whether or not he will even play is debatable, as he is complaining of an abdominal injury.  He could face Alexander Zverev (2) in the third round.  Kyrgios tends to show up against Zverev and owns a 4-3 head-to-head advantage.  But I doubt Kyrgios will make it that far, and even if he does, Zverev has looked razor sharp over the last year, so I give the edge to the German.

Zverev def Paul

 

Semi-finals and Final

If Jannik Sinner can keep playing the way he did last year, there are few who could stop him. Carlos Alcaraz has the game to do it, but given history and draw, I don’t think he’ll make it that far.  If he does, all bets are off, and it would be 50-50 in a Sinner-Alcaraz final.

I think Djokovic is going to make a significant push at this tournament.  His loss here to Sinner last year was a wake-up call.  With coach Murray on board, he has a significant chance to claim an 11^th Australian title, which would tie him with Margaret court for most titles at the AO, and move him one ahead of her in the overall race to 25.

Sinner def Medvedev, Djokovic def Zverev

Final – Sinner def Djokovic.

 

Expert Picks:

Winner	# Picks	Pickers
Sinner	12	Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis), Andy Roddick (Served), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Steve Tignor (Tennis.com), Liya Davidoff (Tennis.com), Franziska Bruells (Tennis.com), Joel Drucker (Tennis.com), Matthew Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), David Kane (Tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis.com), Nikola Aracic (Intuitive Tennis), JG (Game to Love)
Alcaraz	2	Ed McGrogan (Tennis.com), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)
Medvedev	2	Peter Bodo (Tennis.com), Ben (Game to Love)
Zverev	1	Emma Storey (Tennis.com)

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 10 Jan 2025:

1	JSinner	2.20
2	Alcaraz	4.50
3	Djokovic	5.5
4	AZverev	11
5	DMedvedev	15
6	Fritz	29
7	JDraper	51
8	De Minaur	51
9	Tsitsipas	67
10	Shelton	67
11	Rune	67
12	Mpetshi Perricard	67
13	Fonseca	67
14	CaRuud	81
15	Rublev	81
16	Dimitrov	81
17	Tiafoe	101
18	TPaul	101
19	Fils	101
20	Auger Aliassime	101
21	Shapovalov	126
22	Kyrgios	126
23	SKorda	126
24	Hurkacz	126
25	Humbert	126
26	Berrettini	126
27	Opelka	151
28	Musetti	151
29	Mensik	151
30	Machac	151
31	Khachanov	151
32	Popyrin	151