Women’s Tennis 2024 Yearend and 2025 Predictions

 

31 December 2024

 

I see a big four emerging in women’s tennis, consisting of Swiatek, Sabalenka, Gauff, and Qinwen Zheng. I think any one of them could finish at #1 in 2025.  Who will it be?

 

Story of 2024

The year began with Elena Rybakina shellacking Aryna Sabalenka in the Brisbane final, 60 63. It was just the wake-up call Sabalenka needed: she turned around and took a second straight Australian Open title. But even though she then stuttered through the next six months without a title in 10 tournaments, missing both Wimbledon and the Olympics, Sabalenka’s platform was strong enough for an end of season push that took her to #1.

Two young players gave notice early in the year. Emma Navarro began the year ranked 38 but took the 250 title in Hobart in January.  It was the beginning of a remarkable run that saw her improve one round at each slam as the year progressed, third round at the Australian, fourth at Roland Garros, quarters at Wimbledon, and semis of the US Open. She finished the year inside the top ten at #8: an incredible leap for the now 23-year old.  Before this year, she had only won one slam match.

The other rising star belongs to Diana Shnaider. The then 19-year old started the year at #60 but won four tournaments – three 250’s and one 500 – to finish at #13. She also improved at the slams, making fourth round at the US Open.  Her four tournament victories are tied for second best for the year.

Tournament titles	Titles	finals	Points from finals
Swiatek	5	5	5800
Sabalenka	4	7	7340
Shnaider	4	4	1310
QZheng	3	6	3715
Gauff	3	3	2780
Rybakina	3	5	2645

 

After the Australian, we got the first indication that this would be a break out year for an Italian – on the women’s side. Jasmine Paolini came from nowhere to nab the 1000 title in Dubai. She followed up with two slam finals, at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, to elevate herself to everyone’s attention and finish the year at world #4.  She tied Sabalenka for most matches won at the slams in 2024, with 18.

Elena Rybakina had a fine start to the year, winning three titles from five finals in the first half.  However, she was injured for much of the rest of the year, playing only two matches after Wimbledon before the yearend WTA Finals in Riyadh.  She would probably be ranked higher than #6 if she’d been able to play a full schedule.

Iga Swiatek also shone in the first half. She claimed a fourth French Open crown, her fifth slam title.  But even though she claimed five titles for the year, including a slam and three 1000s, none of them came after June.  She may have been distracted by failing a doping test in August.  Apparently, an over-the-counter sleeping aid, melatonin, she purchased was contaminated with a banned substance. The International Tennis Integrity Agency accepted her explanation but for her carelessness still suspended her for a month causing her to miss three tournaments in the post-US Open swing. Regardless she had the best win-loss record on tour by a significant margin, and won more matches and tournaments than anyone else. Without the suspension, a three-peat at yearend #1 may have been likely.

Match record	wins	losses	Ratio
Swiatek	64	9	7.11
Sabalenka	56	14	4.00
Rybakina	43	11	3.91
Gauff	54	17	3.18
Muchova	21	7	3.00
QZheng	50	18	2.78

 

Danielle Collins announced she would retire by year’s end due to ongoing battles with endometriosis but hit a hot streak in spring that saw her claiming the 1000 in Miami and the 500 in Charleston. After a career-high-yearend singles ranking of #11, however, she announced that she would soldier on for an unspecified time.

Daria Kasatkina returned to the top ten, helped by making six tournament finals, all at the 500 level.  She won two of them. Only Sabalenka made more finals during 2024.

Just when we were sure that Barbora Krejcikova was a one-slam wonder, she came from nowhere (again) to win a slam title, this time at Wimbledon.  She was ranked #32 for this run, nearly identical to her #33 ranking when she ran to the 2021 Roland Garros crown.  Incidentally she hasn’t won a match at the French Open since.  She finished yearend #10, her third yearend top-ten ranking.

Donna Vekic was touted as a player to watch back when she was a teenager.  Now at age 28, she finally seems to be fulfilling her promise, making the semis at Wimbledon and winning the silver medal at the Olympics.  She achieved a career high at #18.

It was Qinwen Zheng who took Olympic gold.  She gave notice by making the Australian Open final in January.  That splendid result was followed by a retrenchment that lasted till July. She then found top-level form and after Wimbledon posted a sterling 31-6 win-loss record.  That run included three titles.  Most impressive perhaps was beating Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros during the Olympic tennis event.  Qinwen ended the year on high, making the final of the WTA Finals in Riyadh, where she lost in a third-set tiebreak.

Although Jessica Pegula ended the year at #7, slightly lower than the last two years, she nevertheless had a significant break-through in 2024. She finally made a slam final, at the US Open, at last breaking the quarter-final curse, where she had lost in six previous slams.

Coco Gauff had a solid year, picking up three tournament victories, including the 1000 in Beijing and the WTA Finals 1500 in Riyadh.  She finishes #3 in the rankings and #2 on the money list. She confirms her position in the top echelon of the game and sets herself up to climb to the very pinnacle.  At 21 years old her potential is still great.

But the end of the year belonged to Sabalenka.  She righted the ship in late summer and took the 1000 in Cincinnati and followed it up with a US Open title.  She then took the 1000 in Wuhan, all but ensuring the yearend #1 ranking.  Her titles were all on hard courts, including both hard court slams, and she did not win as many matches or titles as Swiatek. But she is no slouch on clay and grass and a victory at any slam seems possible for her.  She is a deserved #1.

In the final act of the year, Italy, led by Jasmine Paolini, took the Billie Jean King Cup over Slovakia. For the first time in 27 years, since 1997, Venus Williams did not play a slam singles match.  She hasn’t officially retired and did play two matches elsewhere, but it marked the end of an era. Garbine Muguruza hadn’t played since 2023, but made her retirement announcement official in 2024, as did Angelique Kerber, who retired after the Olympics.

 

Top Ten Predictions

At the end of 2023 I made predictions for 2024, as follows:

2023 prediction	2024 Actual
1 Swiatek	2
2 Gauff	3
3 Sabalenka	1
4 Pegula	7
5 Rybakina	6
6 Jabeur	42
7 Muchova	22
8 Sakkari	32
9 Haddad Maia	17
10 QZheng	5

 

I got six of my top ten actually making it there: not terrible, not great.  Of the four who didn’t make it, only one played a full year, Haddad Maia, who was at least in the top 20.  The others suffered unfortunate injuries.

Looking at the actual top ten for 2024, what predictions had I made for them?

2024 Actual	2023 prediction
1 Sabalenka	3
2 Swiatek	1
3 Gauff	2
4 Paolini	>40
5 QZheng	10
6 Rybakina	5
7 Pegula	4
8 Navarro	26
9 Kasatkina	21
10 Krejcikova	17

 

The whole top ten for 2024 was at least somewhere on my radar at the end of last year, with the exception of Jasmine Paolini.  Her climb was really a surprise to me.  Can I do better this year?

 

Predictions for 2025

Aryna Sabalenka had a banner year, claiming two slam titles and the yearend #1 ranking.  Will she keep doing it? She’s 26 years old, in the heart of the peak years for many, although some female tennis players do start to retire at this time.  I don’t think she will be one of them. But does she have the drive to keep pushing for the very top?  Her game is certainly formidable. She hits hard on every surface and has become a reasonably adept, if not natural, mover.  She has increased her variety a little, but there is still lots of room for growth in that department.  There are other younger players in the game who I think will have greater hunger for the top than Sabalenka.  But will her power, consistency, and mental toughness hold them off?

Iga Swiatek may have slipped from #1 because of the doping scandal for which she was found not at fault.  She won more titles and matches than any other player and had the best match winning ratio.  Her game is very strong and at 23 she still has lots of youthful vigour and fight.  Her most significant weakness seems to be her mentality when she starts to fall behind in a match.  She doesn’t seem able to regroup and adapt when she gets down.  Instead she doubles down and often loses in a flurry of errors and over-aggressiveness.  For someone with her formidable speed, she would do well to develop her defensive game as a complement to her offensive prowess.  She’s just made a change to her coaching team, adding the renowned Wim Fisette, so perhaps there is hope for improvement.  Regaining #1 in 2025 would surprise no one, but like Sabalenka, there is an even younger brigade of hungry players encroaching fast.

Coco Gauff is one of those young players. Often after a first slam title, players suffer a sophomore slump the following year.  But if this was a slump, then the rest of the field should be afraid.  Gauff hung onto her yearend #3 ranking.  She didn’t win a slam this year, and she seemed to be treading water for much of the year.  But she started to show fangs by autumn, taking the 1000 in Beijing and the WTA Finals. Her trajectory seems to be upward, and there is not much else left to accomplish except the numbers 1 and 2 ranking spots.  She could get there in 2025.  But it is far from guaranteed.  Swiatek and Sabalenka are very tough and very complete players.  Gauff still has some weaknesses, in her forehand and second serve.  But she is good enough to overcome them.  Will she put it all together this year?

Qinwen Zheng is another young player to watch out for.  She made her first slam final this year and claimed the highly coveted Olympic gold – beating the seemingly invincible-on-clay Swiatek to do it.  She puts herself firmly in the conversation for 2025’s French Open and the hard-court slams as well.  She’s shown some diva tendencies, which is often a prerequisite for life at the top.  Of course, one never knows what a particular player will do, but claiming slams and the #1 ranking seem within the realm for Zheng.

Elena Rybakina is clearly a top talent, but she struggled mightily with illness in 2024.  If she can play a full year she can contend for all the biggest trophies and the top ranking.  She has not shown quite the proclivity for winning titles that Sabalenka and Swiatek have; or even Gauff – who has the same number of titles as Rybakina (8) – but who is five years younger.

WTA titles by yearend Age	Swiatek	Sabalenka	Gauff	Rybakina	SWilliams
15			1
16			1
17			2
18			2		5
19	1		6		8
20	3	2	8	1	11
21	11	5		2	19
22	17	8		2	23
23	22	10		3	25
24		10		5	26
25		13		8	26
26		17			28
… 39					… 73

 

A generational talent, like Serena Williams shows what a high standard can be set at a young age, but even she floundered in her mid-20’s before distinguishing herself as one of the greatest of all time.

Ability to win titles is strongly correlated with a high ranking and winning slam titles.  And that metric does not bode well for a pair of 28-year olds, Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova. Both are somewhat exceptional cases.  Paolini came from nowhere this year to make two slam finals.  It’s highly unusual at her age.  She’s very quick and mobile and she’s found a way to really channel her big, spinny forward, both cross-court and down-the-line.  There aren’t many precedents for initial high-level success at this age, so the odds of her replicating it in 2025 are probably slim.  However, her fundamentals are solid enough that I’ll predict her to stay in the top ten, even if she’s only claimed two WTA titles to date. 

And with only one WTA title in her career thus far, Muchova would seem an even longer shot.  But her talent is undeniable.  Her varied game is gorgeous to watch and when she’s on she can take the racket out of anyone’s hand. If, and it’s a big if, she can stay healthy for a year she can finish in the top ten and contend for the biggest titles.  So far she has often wilted in the title match – an indication perhaps of her mental ceiling.  But I would love to see her go farther.

Emma Navarro had a breakout year that saw her get to #8 by yearend. At age 23 she should be entering her peak, so I’ll predict her to stay in the top ten for another year, with the caution that. when players get to the top this late, it sometimes doesn’t last. She improved steadily at the slams in 2024.  Can she get to a final in 2025?

Diana Shnaider is another of the youth brigade that could threaten the established order. She’s still just 20 years old, and with four titles this year, HAS shown an ability for winning on Sunday.  The logical trajectory for one so young is upward, so at a ranking of #13 now, I think a spot in the top ten is likely.

Jessica Pegula made progress in 2024 by finally getting to a slam final. She also turned 30.  It’s not that I think she will lose much in 2024, but I think other players may be hungrier.

Paula Badosa has been recovering from injury and started to recover some of the form that took her to #2 in the world in 2022. She notched a lot of good wins in 2024, but I didn’t see that run that really impressed me.  She’s solid, if not brilliant.

Mirra Andreeva is still just 17 years old.  She hasn’t discovered a mature level of consistency.  She suffers some puzzling losses, but also some startling runs – like to the semis of the French with a win over Sabalenka.  She’s got talent, with maturity her performance and ranking should rise.

Barbora Krekcikova is a bit of a puzzle. She can play brilliantly at times and steal a slam – not unlike her Czech mates Kvitova, Vondrousova, Mandlikova, and maybe Muchova. But predicting when it will occur is a mystery.

So who to pick for the top ten?

2025 prediction	Current Rank
1 Gauff	3
2 Swiatek	2
3 Sabalenka	1
4 QZheng	5
5 Rybakina	6
6 Paolini	4
7 Muchova	22
8 Navarro	8
9 Shnaider	13
10 Pegula	7

 

It’s perhaps crazy to think that Gauff will move past Swiatek and Sabalenka.  What she has on them, I think, is youth and speed.  Swiatek and Sabalenka are both more complete, but I think Gauff has a higher ceiling.

In the 11-20 category I’ll predict (in order) Badosa, MAndreeva, Haddad Maia, Krecikova, Kasatkina, Vekic, Collins, Ostapenko, Vondrousova, and the returning Bencic.

For the 21-30 dartbaord I’ll go with Azarenka, Osaka, Keys, Kvitova, Jabeur, Sakkari, Kostyuk, Svitolina, Noskova, LFernandez.

 

Slam Predictions

Australian Open Prediction

With the early start to the 2025 season in late December of 2024, I’ll be producing a more full preview of the Australian Open in barely over a week.  Perhaps results will have me changing my tune, but for now it’s tough to pick against the two-time defending champ, Sabalenka.  The AO courts clearly suit her.  For the second favourite it’s nearly a toss-up for me between Zheng and Gauff.  Zheng was runner-up there last year and seems to be steadily improving, almost by the minute.  Gauff loves hard courts and her victory at the WTA Finals elevate her to the top of the conversation.  But she has not fared particularly well at the AO.  She did make the semis last year, finally.  Will she continue to improve?

Next up would be the finalist from two years ago, Rybakina, and my fifth favourite for the title has to be Swiatek – she’s just too good to ignore, even if Australia has not been her happiest hunting ground.  Next I’ll take Pegula, Paolini, and MAndreeva – all of whom could go on deep runs.

All bookies odds are from Bet365.com on 28 Dec 2024.

2025 Charles AO prediction	2025 Bookies odds
1 Sabalenka	1 Sabalenka
2 QZheng	2 Swiatek
3 Gauff	3 Gauff
4 Rybakina	4 Rybakina
5 Swiatek	5 QZheng
6 Pegula	6 Pegula
7 Paolini	7 Osaka
8 MAndreeva	8 Muchova
9 Navarro	9 Mandreeva
10 Muchova	10 Paolini
11 Krejcikova	11 Krejcikova
12 Collins	12 Navarro

 

Roland Garros Prediction

It would seem crazy to pick against Iga Swiatek at the French.  She’s a four-time champion and three-time defending champion.  But she doesn’t feel as invincible at RG as say, Rafa.  She lost to QZheng at Roland Garros during the Olympics, so Zheng is my #2 pick here.  Third up is Sabalenka, who is solid on clay, and beat Swiatek in Madrid in 2023.  And Gauff must be considered as well, runner-up in Paris in 2022.  Paolini was runner-up here last year, and Mirra Andreeva was semi-finalist.    Rybakina can play on clay.  Despite three consecutive first round losses at the French since, Krejcikova did take the title in 2021; and I haven’t forgotten that Muchova was runner-up here in 2023.

2025 Charles FO prediction	2025 Bookies odds
1 Swiatek	1 Swiatek
2 QZheng	2 Sabalenka
3 Sabalenka	3 Gauff
4 Gauff	4 Rybakina
5 Paolini	5 Mandreeva
6 Rybakina	6 Qzheng
7 MAndreeva	7 Krejcikova
8 Muchova	8 Svitolina
9 Krejcikova	9 Halep
10 Pegula	10 Paolini
11 Jabeur	11 Muchova
12 Kasatkina	12 Badosa

 

Wimbledon Prediction

Since Ash Barty won Wimbledon in 2021, our three Wimbledon winners have been Rybakina, Vondrousova, and Krejcikova.  Of these three, only Rybakina seems like a top player, but none of them are models of consistency.  Aryna missed the tournament in 2024, but like last year, I’m going to predict Sabalenka for the title. She’s been in the semis the last two years she played.  She just needs another chance, in my opinion. My number two pick is Rybakina, and at number three I’ll take Gauff, even though she hasn’t been past the fourth round. Fourth pick is Swiatek, based on talent, and fifth is last year’s runner-up, Paolini – who is showing a high level of play, and for whatever reason, can play on grass.

2025 Charles Wim prediction	2025 Bookies odds
1 Sabalenka	1 Sabalenka
2 Rybakina	2 Swiatek
3 Gauff	3 Rybakina
4 Swiatek	4 Gauff
5 Paolini	5 Krejcikova
6 QZheng	6 Osaka
7 Pegula	7 Paolini
8 MAndreeva	8 Raducanu
9 Krejcikova	9 Muchova
10 Muchova	10 Jabeur
11 Pegula	11 Pegula
12 Vondrousova	12 MAndreeva

 

US Open Prediction

The last two winners of the US Open are Sabalenka and Gauff and they are my two favourites for the 2025 title.  Both are excellent on hard courts, but I give a slight advantage to Gauff’s speed, and the home-court advantage she enjoys at the US Open. Surprisingly perhaps, Swiatek had the best hard court record of 2024, with a win-loss record of 36-6 (ratio 6.0), better than Sabalenka’s 40-9 (ratio 4.4), or Gauff’s 35-10 (ratio 3.5), but Swiatek does not win hard court titles at the clip that Sabalenka and Gauff do.  Next up I’d nominate QZheng who’s star is rising and who has been strong on hard courts.

2025 Charles USO prediction	2025 Bookies odds
1 Gauff	1 Sabalenka
2 Sabalenka	2 Swiatek
3 Swiatek	3 Gauff
4 QZheng	4 Rybakina
5 Rybakina	5 QZheng
6 Pegula	6 Pegula
7 Paolini	7 MAndreeva
8 Muchova	8 Osaka
9 Navarro	9 Muchova
10 Mandreeva	10 Navarro
11 Collins	11 Raducanu
12 Osaka	12 Paolini

 

It would seem that I’m predicting a better outcome for Sabalenka at the slams than for Gauff, yet I have predicted Gauff for #1.  I could argue that Gauff will do better at non-slam events or perhaps my predictions are not completely consistent. I do think it will be a mighty battle for the top of the women’s game in 2025, and seeing Gauff, Sabalenka, Swiatek, or Zheng emerge at the top is what I expect.