2025 Australian Open Women’s Preview

Aryna Sabalenka is the two-time defending champion.  She looked commanding in winning Brisbane last week.  She is a common favourite for a three-peat. 

Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek sprang from the blocks at the United Cup and both appeared to be in all-conquering from when Swiatek out-battled Rybakina and Gauff blitzed Muchova.  And then they played each other in a high quality match that was fierce and delightful. Coco prevailed, so is she the favourite to dethrone Sabalenka?

 

Top Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka (seeded 1) opens against Sloane Stephens, a once fearsome competitor who has aged slightly from her peak.  Linda Noskova (29) and Clara Tauson stage a popcorn first-rounder.  Noskova beat Swiatek last year at this event, and Tauson just won the title in Auckland last week. The winner could play Sabalenka in the third.

Mirra Andreeva (14) famously took Sabalenka out of Roland Garros last year, but lost to her last week.  Andreeva has a tricky opener against Marie Bouzkova.

Diana Shnaider’s (12) name is on the lips of many as a powerful young player to watch out for.  She could face 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, or Olympic silver medallist Donna Vekic (18) in the third round.

Also in this section is Qinwen Zheng (5), runner-up both here last year and at the WTA Finals in November.  It’s a potentially dangerous section for Sabalenka… or a good warm-up.

Sabalenka def Zheng

 

Second Quarter

Equally dangerous perhaps is Coco Gauff’s (3) quarter. Two-time champ in Australia, Naomi Osaka is unseeded and opens against unseeded Caroline Garcia, just like she did last year.  Garcia was the sixteenth seed then and won the match, but I expect Osaka to exact revenge. But her next round could be very tricky against Karolina Muchova (10).  Both women are not unreasonable picks for the title, however recent history has made this clash possible.  Muchova is likely too strong at the moment, but with a player of Osaka’s talent, anything is possible.

As if it weren’t spicy enough, also in this mini-section is a first-rounder between returning Belinda Bencic, a former Olympic gold-medallist, and Jelena Ostapenko (16).  The good news for Gauff is that after the cage fight between Bencic, Ostapenko, Osaka, and Muchova – Coco can only face one of them.

Former #2 Paula Badosa is re-incarnated as the 11^th seed and is slated to meet Jessica Pegula (7) in the fourth round.  Pegula was runner-up at the last hard court slam and should rise to face Gauff in the quarters.  She’s into the Adelaide final this week, so her form is good.  She owns a 4-2 head-to-head against Gauff, but Gauff took their most recent meeting.

Gauff def Pegula

 

Third Quarter

Elena Rybakina (6) has been the centre of a media-storm due to her uncertain coaching situation.  Her former coach, Stefano Vukov, has been provisionally banned by the WTA, yet Rybakina announced he would be rejoining her team last week.  Current coach Goran Ivanisevic seemed as surprised as everyone else.  The real concern is over the perceived abusive relationship that Vukov inflicted on Rybakina.  It seems unlikely that Vukov will gain access to the Rybakina coaching box, despite her protestations that he should be allowed to. If she can block it all out, Rybakina has a manageable draw.

Seventeen-year old Iva Jovic might provide an interesting foil in the second round. Madison Keys (19) is undeniably a clean ball striker and has a soft enough draw to make some noise.  She could face Danielle Collins (10) in the third round, a former finalist here.  Collins has not, however, been in particularly good form.

Also in this section is Jasmine Paolini (4) last year’s break-out sensation who made two slam finals.  Other seeds near Paolini include Elina Svitolina (28), Katie Boulter (22), and the hard-hitting Beatriz Haddad Maia (15).

Rybakina def Paolini

 

Fourth Quarter

Emma Navarro (8) was a revelation last year, that no one saw coming.  She has particularly shone at the slams.  Last week she suffered a rather middling loss in Brisbane, so I’m of two minds in selecting her for a deep run.  Will she live up to last year’s semi-final run at the US Open, or is the shine off?  Her opening match against Peyton Stearns is far from a given.

Former #2 Ons Jabeur is returning the to the game and is still dangerous.  She may need some time to find her footing, but her opening against Anhelina Kalinina is tough.  Next up she could get Maria Sakkari (31) a former #3 who is also coming back. I think Sakkari is a little further along her comeback.

McCartney Kessler took the Hobart title this week, but could get the ever-feisty and dangerous Yulia Putintseva (24) in the second round.

Anna Kalinskaya (13) made the quarters here last year, but could run into the ageless Victoria Azarenka (21) in round three. Former US Open champ Emma Raducanu is unseeded and slated to meet Ekaterina Alexandrova (26) in the first round.  The second could bring up ball-basher Amanda Anisimova.

At the bottom of the draw is Iga Swiatek, seeded unfamiliarly at #2, after three years of near lock-down on the top spot in the sport.  Swiatek’s opener against Katerina Siniakova is not a gimme, and there are potential landmines in every round.  Given her relatively poor results at the Australian – for her – (a semi-final would be a good top result for almost anyone else), nothing should be assumed about her potential run. But overall, she could not have asked for a much better draw all the way to the semis.  There she might meet perennial nemesis Rybakina, but a lot can happen between now and then.

Swiatek def Sakkari

 

Semi-finals and Final

The third quarter featuring Rybakina and Paolini is probably the one without a clear favourite to emerge.  Paolini has little positive history in Melbourne and Rybakina has a cloud of uncertainty swirling about.  All this clears the way for Swiatek, if she can hold her nerve, to follow a reasonable path to the final.  Given past disappointments down-under, I swore in advance I would not again fall into the trap of picking a deep-run for Swiatek at the AO, but here I am.

If Gauff and Sabalenka do make it to the semis, it will be my most anticipated match of the tournament.  I believe they are the top two contenders for the title.  Gauff has done much to shore up her forehand and serve.  Even with those weaknesses she has achieved a 5-4 winning head-to-head against Sabalenka.  Given her form at the United Cup, she’s my pick.

Gauff def Sabalenka, Swiatek def Rybakina

Final – Gauff def Swiatek

 

Expert Picks:

Winner	# Picks	Pickers
Sabalenka	9	Andy Roddick (Served), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Steve Tignor (Tennis.com), Franziska Bruells (Tennis.com), Joel Drucker (Tennis.com), David Kane (Tennis.com), Ed McGrogan (Tennis.com), Emma Storey (Tennis.com), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)
Gauff	5	Matthew Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis.com), Peter Bodo (Tennis.com), Liya Davidoff (Tennis.com), Nikola Aracic (Intuitive Tennis)

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 10 Jan 2025:

1 Sabalenka 3.25 2 Gauff 5 3 Swiatek 5 4 Rybakina 9 5 QZheng 15 6 MAndreeva 23 7 Muchova 26 8 Keys 34 9 Paolini 34 10 Pegula 34 11 Badosa 51 12 Navarro 51 13 Osaka 51 14 Raducanu 51 15 Shnaider 51 16 Jabeur 81 17 Kasatkina 81 18 Svitolina 81 19 Boulter 101 20 Collins 101 21 Kostyuk 101 22 Puntintseva 101 23 Sakkari 101 24 Samsonova 101 25 Anisimova 126 26 Azarenka 126 27 Haddad Maia 126 28 Ostapenko 126 29 Bencic 151 30 LFernandez 151 31 Krueger 151 32 Mertens 151 33 Noskova 151 34 Stearns 151 35 Tauson 151 36 Yastremska 151