2026 Australian Open Men’s Preview

Sincaraz… The last time the same two men featured in the finals of four consecutive slam tournaments was…

When Djokovic and Nadal appeared in four straight from 2011 Wimbledon to the 2012 French Open.  And that was the first and only time it’s occurred at the current slam tournaments. Although Laver and Rosewall kind of did it at the pro slams in 1964-65.

In both previous cases, the wins went 3-1, so if precedent holds, Alcaraz will beat Sinner in the AO final.  Case closed, no need to read further.

Convinced? Or coincidence? Read on…

 

First Quarter

Carlos Alcaraz (seed 1) has been reasonably blessed by the draw gods. His first challenge might come in the fourth round when he could face Tommy Paul (19), who has both previous quarter- and semi-final showings here. But Paul struggled with injury last year and has been in middling form, so I don’t predict much difficulty for Alcaraz.

Flavio Cobolli (20) had a splendid finish to 2025, leading his country to the Davis Cup.  He can play well in big moments.  He could run into Alexander Bublik (10) in the third round. Bublik has been a revelation in the last six months, claiming five tournaments, a feat matched only by Sinner in the same time frame.  The former jester of the tour turns out to have some good tennis.  His serve is world-class and he’s learned discipline in shot selection.   I’ll be watching his first rounder against Jenson Brooksby – a very talented and unorthodox player.

Upsetting Alcaraz in the quarter is possible for Bublik, but first he would have to get through Alex De Minaur (6).  De Minaur has been rock solid for the last year, but has a very dangerous opener against Matteo Berrettini – former Wimbledon finalist.  Alex leads Bublik 3-2 in their head-to-head, but Bublik has won the last two, both last year.  De Minaur has now made six slam quarter-finals without going deeper.  He could make another here, but getting past Alcaraz to make a semi is highly unlikely.

Alcaraz def De Minaur

 

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev (3) has a tough opener against big-serving Gabriel Diallo.  Zverev has seemed less than his top level since losing last year’s Australian final to Sinner. But even so, he’s a formidable player and he’s got a good draw.  He could meet Andrey Rublev (13) in the fourth round.  Rublev has come down a step too in the last year.  So business as usual if they meet.  Zverev leads the head-to-head 7-3.

Also in this section are Daniil Medvedev (11) and Felix Auger-Aliassime (7). FAA was in great form at the end of 2025 and did make the quarters here in 2022.  He has a fairly challenging opener against Nuno Borges who is always a tough out. Because his level varies so much I can’t predict Felix to go very deep.  He could meet Learner Tien (25) in the third round.  Tien was one of the break-out stars of last year, lifting his ranking nearly a hundred spots into the top 30.

Another player trending upward, but more slowly and steadily, is Arthur Rinderknech (24) who made the Shanghai 1000 final in October.  He’s a potential third opponent for Medvedev. Medvedev looked mostly lost last year, dropping from the top of the game to a ranking of 18 in September.  But then he started to turn it around, winning two tournaments including one last week.  He’s on the road back, but I’m not convinced he’s fully there.   He owns a 14-8 H2H against Zverev, having won eight of the last 10 matches, but in current form, I lean toward Zverev.  It’s possible Medvedev will play into excellent form during the tournament.  And so, although I don’t like Zverev’s head-space or form, he benefits from a favourable draw.

Zverev def Medvedev

 

Third Quarter

Lorenzo Musetti is seeded #5, and this is due to his fine play over the last year.  He’s gotten much more solid and reliable, and become disciplined to unleash his best shots when it matters most.  He’s fleet but doesn’t have a power game so that makes winning tough.  He’s never been past the third round at the Australian, but has semis at the French and Wimbledon, and a quarter-final showing at the US Open.  So it could be just a matter of time before he does well here.  Hopefully it’s not that the courts don’t suit him.

He could run into Stefanos Tsitsipas (31) in the third round. Tsitsipas was a finalist here just three years ago, but it feels like a lifetime. He notched three good wins at the United Cup including one over Fritz so perhaps he will start to turn things around this year.

Thomas Machac and Grigor Dimitrov could stage a flashy first round encounter with the winner to face Tsitsipas in the second.

Stan Wawrinka is also in this section.  He says he’s retiring at the end of the year so this is likely the former champion’s last tournament down under.

Jiri Lehecka (17) is unpredictably dangerous and could meet Taylor Fritz (9) in the third round. Fritz has been solid if unspectacular in the last half year.  He has a 3-3 H2H with Musetti, but has won both encounters on hard courts.

The other half of this quarter features Jakub Mensik (16) and Novak Djokovic (4).  The then-teen Mensik notably beat Djokovic in the final of the Miami 1000 last year.  He’s been middling ever since, but just this week has made a run to the final of Auckland – throwing my predictions into confusion.  On balance, I think Djokovic is still strong enough to win the match-up, especially over best-of-five where he has more experience. 

Interrupting those plans could be Hubert Hurkacz, unseeded and on the comeback trail.  A former top-tenner, Hurkacz had to shut down his season last year in June.  But he showed remarkable form at the United Cup last week, beating Zverev and Fritz.  He may be the best unseeded player in the draw.

Djokovic def Fritz

 

Fourth Quarter

The weight of two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner (2) feels like a dreadnought at the bottom of this draw.  Everyone, pundits and bookies alike, have him as the favourite for this tournament.  It almost seems pointless to discuss this quarter. Almost…

His first test might come in the third round at the hand of Joao Fonseca (28).  While #28 might seem like a fairly unprepossessing seed, Fonseca is not to be underestimated. Still only 19 years old, he has made waves on the tour with his groundstroke fire-power, especially the bazooka forehand.  He might have the tools to become a top player some day.  He’s not there yet, but the thing with immense, unrefined talent is that you never know when it will suddenly manifest.  The cognoscenti will be watching that third round (if it happens) with antennae and feathers on high alert.

The next highest seeds after Sinner are Ben Shelton (8) and Casper Ruud (12).  Ruud has already been to three slam finals, although Australia has not been his favourite hunting ground – topping out at 4^th round here.  Meanwhile Shelton has a semi- and a quarter-final here in only three appearances.  He struggled with injury at the end of last year, so it will be interesting to see if he can really test Jannik.

Not to be forgotten is Valentin Vacherot (30). The darling of Shanghai is largely untested at the slam level and makes his Australian open debut as a seed.  Can he go on another run?

Regardless of who he faces, Jannik is so complete and so focused these days, it’s hard to see him not coming through this quarter.

Sinner def Shelton

 

Semis and Final

Predicting the top four seeds to make it to the semis was not something I intended to do.  Alcaraz and Sinner are so strong it would be foolish to predict their upsets.  Djokovic is barely more vulnerable, especially at this site, home of 10 slam trophies for him. But Zverev is definitely primed for an upset, it’s just that with his draw, I don’t see it.  Maybe Medvedev will find form and give him a 14^th beating in their last 17 meetings.

It seems Sinner is the odds-on favourite to claim the title a third straight year.  He plays his best on hard courts, and these ones in particular suit his game.  The question might be if anyone can take a set from him.  I don’t hold out much hope for Djokovic to do it.  Djokovic looks newly committed to making a final slam push this year.  Maybe he’ll have better luck at Wimbledon.

When it comes to Alcaraz, it seems popular at the moment to focus on his recent loss of coach Juan Carlos Ferrero.  Will this disruption slow him down?  My initial thoughts were that it would.  But as I consider more deeply, I can’t look past the fact that at age 22 he is entering his absolute prime tennis years.  He has an unbelievable set of skills and seems to concentrate well on court, never choking in big matches.  To me Sinner is more likely to get nervous and let slip a triple set-point in the FO final, say.

I’ve put Sinner as the winner in all my fantasy leagues, but when faced with explaining it, why Sinner’s history outweighs Alcaraz’s talent, I can’t do it

Alcaraz def Sinner

 

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 15 Jan 2026:

1	JSinner	1.83
2	Alcaraz	2.60
3	Djokovic	15
4	AZverev	26
5	DMedvedev	29
6	Fritz	29
7	Shelton	41
8	De Minaur	41
9	Musetti	51
10	Bublik	67
11	SKorda	81
12	Hurkacz	81
13	Fonseca	81
14	Auger Aliassime	81
15	TPaul	101
16	Lehecka	101
17	Wawrinka	126
18	Tien	126
19	Rublev	126
20	Mensik	126
21	Davidovich Fokina	126
22	Bergs	126
23	Munar	151
24	Khachanov	151
25	Etcheverry	151
26	Tiafoe	201
27	Thompson	201
28	CaRuud	201
29	Humbert	201
30	Tsitsipas	251
31	Michelsen	251
32	Machac	251
33	Cobolli	251
34	FCerundolo	251
35	Vacherot	301
36	Cazaux	301