2026 Australian Open Women’s Preview

How is it that not even two weeks into the new tennis year, my opinion has changed about Australian Open favourites?

 

First Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka (seed 1) is in a deserved place at the top of the draw.  She looked great last week in defending her Brisbane 500 title. And her draw looks manageable.  But then again, for a #1 isn’t any draw manageable? She’s been in the last three finals here, winning twice, and has to be the default favourite for the tournament.

Emma Raducanu (28) could meet Sabalenka in the third round.  She looked slightly more resilient in 2025, but still far from 2021-US-Open-winning form.  Just this week she’s put an end to a five-match losing streak dating to September, but after the win lost her next match unconvincingly.

The third round could also bring up an interesting clash between Clara Tauson (14) and Victoria Mboko (17).  Both young players hit career highs in 2025, and Mboko is on another run, to the final of Adelaide this week.  Although Sabalenka would have to be favoured if they meet in the fourth round, Mboko is still an unknown quantity, and I have no confidence in predicting the Canadian couldn’t win that match.

Marta Kostyuk (20) is perennially dangerous and made the Brisbane final last week. She is not known for deep slam runs, but her best was here in 2024, to the quarter-finals.

Iva Jovic (29) is just 18 years old, and climbing the ranks.  A run to the quarters is possible, but she may need to get by 7^th seed, Jasmine Paolini to do it.  Paolini’s draw is manageable, and I favour her big spinning strokes slightly over Jovic and Kostyuk to make the quarter-final.

Sabalenka def Paolini

 

Second Quarter

Coco Gauff (3) has landed here and her top-seeded company is Mirra Andreeva (8). Andreeva looked amazing in the first half of 2025, but then rather mortal in the latter half.  She’s started the year reasonably well with a trip to the final of Adelaide this week. 

Which Andreeva will show up for the Aus Open?  Her first three matches could figure Vekic, Sakkari, and Yastremska (26); all of whom are dangerous.  The fourth round would be no easier if she faces Svitolina, Krejcikova, or Shnaider.  Andreeva has the game to beat them all, but it’s a steep road. 

Elina Svitolina (12) looked imperious in taking the title in Auckland last week.  She’s been to the quarters three times at the AO.  Barbora Krejcikova already has two slam titles in her belt.  If her clean strokes show up she could add a third. She had the misfortune to draw Diana Shnaider (23) in the first round.  Shnaider is still up and coming at age 21, and made the semis in Adelaide this week.

Venus Williams age 45, is set to play her first Australian Open since 2021.  Her opening match against Olga Danilovic could go either way.  Surviving that, she could face Gauff. Gauff looked great in handling Swiatek with ease last week in United Cup.  Technical problems with her forehand and serve are not fully resolved, but when her confidence is high, they matter much less. Gauff’s athleticism and speed around the court are legendary, so she should definitely be the favourite for this quarter.

However, she’s got two very tricky Czechs in her section that could spell trouble: Karolina Muchova (19) and Marketa Vondrousova (32).  Both can beat anyone on their day.  It’s just that their day doesn’t come around that often.  Also here is Emma Navarro (15) who made quarters last year.

Gauff def Svitolina

 

Third Quarter

Jessica Pegula (6) has been to the quarters at the Aus Open three times.  She’s nearly 32 years old and her physical game is not getting any easier to play.  Still, she’s remarkably consistent and will be a tough out for anyone. Last year’s champ, Madison Keys is seeded #9, but I, along with most others it seems, are not expecting much from her.  It feels like she’s had her moment.

There’s a throw-back match in this section, 33-year old former #1 Karolina Pliskova versus 32-year old former slam champ Sloane Stephens.  Both women are ranked more than 1000, but are on the comeback trail.

Linda Noskova (13) is just 21 and jumped a level at the end of 2025.  She’s got a manageable draw for a few rounds.  But the fourth round could bring up Amanda Anisimova (4). Anisimova had a spectacular 2025 that saw her reach two slam finals. Her strokes are pure and hard and it looks like she has everything to succeed on the biggest stages.  After close calls last year, my guess is she will be hungry for more. Her Wimbledon final humiliation at the hands of Swiatek was a lesson she took to heart.  She was very competitive in the US Open final, and I think she is ready to go a step deeper. 

Can she maintain concentration?  A loss to Kostyuk last week was not encouraging, but on the other hand, it was enough for her to find her feet in the new season, and I’m not reading anything into it.  She’s a favourite for this half of the draw.

Anisimova def Pegula

 

Fourth Quarter

The top four seeds in this section make this one of the toughest and most unpredictable quarters of the draw.  Top seed here is Iga Swiatek (2) who looked anything but convincing at the United Cup.  Sure she beat her lower-ranked opposition fairly handily, but when faced with top tier competition in the form of Gauff and Bencic, she wilted.  I was shouting at the TV as she piled error upon error.  When things get tough she needs to learn to hit with margin or the losses are going to continue racking up.  I predicted her for #2 this year, but I’m starting to think she won’t even make top five.  Her best level is still world-beating, so anything is possible, as last year’s Wimbledon victory showed. But that’s starting to look like an outlier on a downhill slope.  Can she get her head straight?

Waiting for her in the quarters could be Naomi Osaka (16).  Osaka is a two-time champ at this site.  Her return after giving birth has been gaining steam and she looked especially strong getting to the semis of the US Open.  Can she take it one further now?

Maya Joint (30) is an up-and-coming Australian teenager showing great promise. She could meet Elena Rybakina (5) in the third round.  Rybakina is fairly mercurial and after a red-hot streak to close 2025, looks slightly subdued this January.  She made the final here in 2023, and when she’s on, she can be unbeatable.

Speaking of unbeatable, Belinda Bencic (10) has been on fire this year, taking out Paolini and Swiatek at United Cup.  She looks back in the form that took her to Olympic Gold in 2021.

So the fourth rounds of this section could shake down to Bencic vs Rybakina and Osaka vs Swiatek… worthy of slam semis I’d say.  But only one will emerge to the semi.

Bencic def Swiatek

 

Semis and Final

Sabalenka versus Gauff in the semis could be the match of the tournament.  The head-to-head currently stands at 6 wins each, with Gauff holding a narrow 2-1 edge on the slam stage.  I believe in Gauff’s superior athleticism and I also believe in Sabalenka’s superior ball-striking.  At this point I’m more convinced of Sabalenka’s head-space – she seems to have it all figured out.

I feel more secure that Anisimova can make the semi than in any result from the viper’s nest that could produce Bencic. I really believe Anisimova is ready to take the next step.  But I also think it will require a Herculean effort to beat Sabalenka at this tournament. Can we call her Amanda Hercules?

Sabalenka def Anisimova

 

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 15 Jan 2026:

1	Sabalenka	2.87
2	Swiatek	6
3	Rybakina	8
4	Gauff	8
5	Anisimova	8.5
6	MAndreeva	15
7	Keys	17
8	Osaka	23
9	Kostyuk	23
10	Mboko	34
11	Bencic	34
12	Pegula	41
13	Muchova	41
14	Paolini	51
15	Shnaider	67
16	Svitolina	67
17	Samsonova	81
18	Raducanu	81
19	Badosa	101
20	Noskova	101
21	Krejcikova	126
22	Eala	126
23	Alexandrova	126
24	Vondrousova	151
25	Tauson	151
26	Navarro	151
27	Jovic	151
28	LFernandez	151
29	Mertens	201
30	Valentova	251
31	Kalinskaya	301
32	Lys	351