AO 2012 - women's preview

Australian Open 2012 – Women’s Preview

 

Kvitova, Li, Clijsters, Serena... there are big questions around them all.  Will she be #1? Can she win another major?  Will she be able to comeback with her best game?  Is she still the best?

 

Stosur, Sharapova, Azarenka, Wozniacki...  Can she shake the Aussie jinx? Can she get control of her serve? Is she for real? Can she, will she ever, win a major?

 

And let’s not forget about Bartoli, ARadwansaka, Zvonareva, Pavlyuchenkova, and Kuznetsova.  So many questions... will the 2012 AO provide some answers?

 

First Quarter

The number one seed is Wozniacki.  She is not the number one pick of most observers, the bookies, or newswriters... even though hard courts are her best surface.  She’s #1 and on her best surface... but it’s not enough.  The problem is there are probably 6 or 7 others who are better than her on hardcourts.  And by ‘better’ I mean they have a good chance of raising their game above Caroline’s consistently high level.  But tennis is not (only) about week-in, week-out consistency.  Much of it is about peaking for 2 weeks, or the latter part of two weeks, at a slam.  Caroline ‘could’ make the semis or final in Melbourne, but the way the chips have fallen, quarters seem more likely.  In my books she’s no better than third in her quarter.

 

It seems a shame that Li and Clijsters have fallen in the same eighth of the draw.  They are two of my top three picks for the title and one of them is sure to be gone after 4R.  Last year they played a very entertaining final, won by Clijsters.  Both have question marks.  Li has been slumping since her French Open win and Clijsters played only one match in the last six months of the year, a loss in Cincinnati.  Clijsters has shown she can come from out of nowhere to claim a slam, but Li has been turning it on to start this year, taking Kvitova out of Sydney.  It’s really too close to call and could well be the best fourth rounder of the tournament.  I give the edge to Li.

 

I’ll be keeping my eye on Christina McHale.  She’s 19 and made 3R at USO.  A match with Wozniacki in 4R could be fascinating.

 

Li def Wozniacki

 

Second Quarter

After being repeatedly stymied in major quarters, there was much rejoicing when Victoria Azarenka finally broke through to the semis at Wimbledon 2011.  Has she really broken through to a higher level or will her apprenticeship in the semis be as long?  She’s seeded 3 at AO and no doubt she has talent.  With wins over Serena, Clijsters, Sharapova, Kvitova, Li, and Stosur she has the game to beat anyone.  Can she muster the consistency over two weeks?

 

If there’s a soft quarter of the draw this is likely it.  Agnieszka Radwanska is the next highest seed (8), and had a hot hand at the end of last year as well as in Sydney.  Azarenka beat ARad in the Sydney semis in three entertaining sets.  Can she do it again?  Schiavone (10) is a potential spoiler.  She made the quarters here last year.  I’ll also be watching Mona Barthel, who’s been climbing rapidly in the last year and is playing her first AO.

 

Azarenka def ARadwanska

 

Third Quarter

After semis last year at Indian Wells and Roland Garros, finals in Miami and Wimbledon, and titles in Rome and Canada, Sharapova, seeded 4, looked poised to make a big statement at the US Open, but after Canada in August she faded with barely a whimper.  Was it a hiatus or a decline?  She’s not Serena, although she may hit as hard, but I suspect she will not quickly re-find top form.  I’m looking for an early exit, maybe 4R to Kuznetsova (18) or Lisicki (14).  But she could prove me wrong.  She has the determination to lift her game through the roughest patches.

 

Lisicki announced herself with semis at Wimbledon last year.  At this point her future looks all upside.  Unfortunately, she may be injured with an abdominal strain.

 

The major problem for either Lisicki or Sharapova is Serena Williams in the adjoining eighth.  Bad luck for everyone else in this quarter.  The US Open loss to Stosur has got to be rankling Serena.  I expect her to be out in full fury.  She’s ranked #13, seeded #12, but the AO is the site of some her most amazing comebacks.  She’s won the title here 5 times and this is probably the most likely slam win for her in 2012, with Wimbledon a close second.  But that Stosur loss left some questions.  Could it be, is it possible, that Serena is getting old?  Is her current best still THE best?  I expect Serena to answer these questions at this Australian Open with a display of firepower, dominance, and determination.  For now it will probably be enough.  But even if she wins the title, the questions are there.  Is this the beginning of the end?  Let’s enjoy this genius for as long as we can.

 

You have to pity Zvonareva (7 seed).  Dulgheru in the first round, Kanepi a possibility in the third, both hot this January.  Then Serena, then Sharapova or Lisicki.  If Zvonareva can somehow emerge from this quarter it would be a miracle.

 

SWilliams def Lisicki

 

Kvitova Quarter

A litter and heralds are in waiting, poised to crown the new queen of women’s tennis.  After the #1 roller coaster of the last 4 years since Henin’s (first) retirement, can you blame fans for wanting someone, anyone, to pick up the mantle of “real” #1... with the big caveat that this person is a slam winner??  Tennis scribes are practically breathless, fingers hovering over keyboard, to confirm her ascendance.  Rumour has it she was born in a manger.  But is Kvitova ready?  Is the anticipation and erst-adulation well-founded?  Only time will tell.  Here’s what we know:  Kvitova has a big, hard-hitting game.  She’s 6 feet tall and 21 years old.  She’s won Wimbledon, and then after a brief slump/breath-catching/OMG-did-I-really-do-this period, she levelled the field and won the yearend championship and the Fed Cup (not quite single-handedly). 

 

This is a magnificent achievement and on par with or actually slightly less than the accomplishments of Gabriela Sabatini at the same age.  I have a feeling we are expecting too much of Kvitova.  The main difference between Sabatini and Kvitova is that Kvitova does not have to contend with the maelstroms of Graf and Seles.  Instead the top is all but vacant, or crowded by parity, depending on your perspective.  Kvitova is probably not the second coming of Navratilova, but her timing could not be better.  Opportunity is knocking loudly.  As Clijsters, Li, Stosur, and the Williams start to fade, who will stand in the way of Kvitova sweeping to multiple grand slam titles?  Azarenka?  Wozniacki?  Sharapova? Maybe Pavlyuchenkova or some much younger talent like Madison Keys or Yulia Putintseva.

 

The future looks bright for Petra.  But I’m not sure AO 2012 will be it.  She likes fast courts, as Istanbul showed us, but I think outdoor hardcourts are probably her biggest weakness at this point.  I think she will grow into them.  A hardcourt slam is reasonable for her at some point in the future, but for now, I think Li, Clijsters, and Serena have a better shot at this Australian Open and Stosur has more hardcourt game.  Not that I’m willing to count Kvitova completely out.

 

There are some other very interesting names in this quarter.  Top of the list is #6 Sam Stosur.  She clearly has the goods to do damage on hard courts and her win over Serena in the USO final showed guts.  She, too, can be excused for a post-slam hangover.  Is it too soon to expect a deep run from her?  The pressure of home expectations will probably not help her.  She has the game, is her mind in the right place?

 

Stosur could face 9-seeded Marion Bartoli in 4R.  Marion is always dangerous and has been in form this month.  If Stosur does not find her best game, this could well go Bartoli’s way.

 

The dark horse here is Pavlyuchenkova (15).  She’s been climbing the rankings steadily over the last few years and made QF at the French and USO last year.  If Kvitova is in form she should make it past Anastasia to face Stosur or Bartoli.  Which Stosur will show up for AO 2012, the US Open champion or last year’s 3R loser?

 

Kvitova def Bartoli

 

Semis

I doubt I’ve picked the four semi-finalists but here goes anyway...

 

Li is hot, hungry, and thrives down under, making SF and RU the last two years.  Azarenka is a marvellous hardcourt player but is probably not quite ready for her first GS final.

 

Li def Azarenka

 

People will probably think that a Kvitova vs Serena showdown will determine bragging rights for “real” #1.  I don’t think it should, not yet... maybe on grass.

 

SWilliams def Kvitova

 

Final

It comes down to desire.  I think Li and Serena will have more of it (combined with their natural talents) than anyone else in the draw.  But who has the most?  Li is a beautifully clean striker of the ball.  Serena pounds it, can run down everything, and dominates with her serve.  Li can go off her game, and Serena can go off emotionally.  Of course, Li could lose to Clijsters in 4R.  In the end I doubt it will matter who the opponent is.  I think Serena will have too much firepower and the most desire.

 

SWilliams def Li

 

Average odds from bookies.com 13 Jan 2012.

 

1	Kvitova, P	3.51
2	Williams, S	4.75
3	Azarenka, V	7.25
4	Clijsters, K	8.66
5	Li, N	11.81
6	Stosur, S	15.75
7	Wozniacki, C	16.08
8	Kanepi, K	17.36
9	Radwanska, A	18.88
10	Sharapova, M	22.56
11	Zvonareva, V	31.88
12	Bartoli, M	38.63
13	Kuznetsova, S	43.94
14	Lisicki, S	49.81
15	Ivanovic, A	51.25
16	Jankovic, J	71.00
17	Schiavone, F	76.14
18	Pavlyuchenkova, A	77.00
19	Pennetta, F	81.50
20	Goerges, J	96.47
21	Hantuchova, D	100.43
22	Wickmayer, Y	121.50
23	Kerber, A	123.78
24	Peng, S	129.54