AO men - 2012 preview

Australian Open 2012 – Men’s Preview

 

Can anyone stop the big four?  Or is that the big three?  Besides Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, there has been only one other slam winner in the last 7 years (27 majors), Del Potro at USO 2009.  Before that it was Safin at Australian Open 2005.  Is Murray finally ready?  I’ve sworn I would never again pick him for a major win until he’s put up the goods.  Did I resist?  I’m starting from the bottom this time.

 

Fourth quarter

Rafael Nadal has become everyone’s favourite whipping boy to start the year.  ‘He doesnt’t believe anymore’ or ‘he’s lost his mental edge’ or even ‘he’s lost a step.’  But 3 slam finals last year (one a win) and five 1000 finals (two wins) are a slump most players would line up for.  Nadal was barely out-competed last year by the slimmest of margins – by one man.  Nadal’s level may in fact have been as high as in his banner 2010.  But Djokovic was razor sharp.  If Novak loses even a smidgeon, the balance could very well shift.  I am not among the prophets of Rafa’s demise.

 

With that said, the AO is probably the least favourable slam for Nadal.  But that has been mitigated somewhat by probably the easiest draw of the big 4.  Haas, Ljubicic, Davydenko, and Nalbandian are all former #2 or 3 players.  Five years ago this would have been an intimidating lineup.  But the faded glory of Great Expectations hangs heavily around them.  The biggest threats probably come from Isner (seeded 16) or Berdych (7) who could meet Nadal in the 4R or QF, respectively.

 

Isner’s 0-3 record against Nadal does not raise much prospect of an upset, but the 5-set escape Nadal had to manufacture at Roland Garros last year makes for some interest.  Isner may have improved since then, but bottom line, Nadal has too much game.

 

Berdych has added some consistency to his traditional streakiness and looked to be on a hot one in 5 wins at Hopman Cup.  If he’s on he could trouble Nadal and even win.  But on balance, this is a major and I expect Nadal to be close to top form.

 

Nadal def Berdych

 

Third Quarter

Roger Federer is just too good to ever be counted out.  At first glance the seedings in his bracket do not look particularly difficult, but potential landmines in the 4R include Bernard Tomic and Dolgopolov (13).  The QF then could bring up Fish (8) or Del Potro (11).  Del Potro is the real cracker-jack here.  Pretty much anything is possible, including a title run.  Beating Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic consecutively is, however, probably too tall an order.  My feeling is Del Potro has not yet hit full throttle in his comeback.  Meanwhile, Federer has become an adept at ringing the most from his aging body.  It could be a gauntlet for Federer to gain the semi, it could also be a cakewake.  Will Tomic breakout, again?

 

Federer def Del Potro

 

Second Quarter

It’s the first time since the French 2006 that Djokovic and Murray have landed in the same half of major:  back when both were unseeded.  The rest of this bracket should be called the French quarter.  Tsonga (6) and Simon (12) could meet in 4R and opposite Murray is Monfils (14).  Recently crowned Sydney champ Bennetteau is also here along with three more of his compatriots.  The three French seeds are the only real prospects to derail the Murray express.  Tsonga looked superlative sweeping through Doha over Monfils in the final.  Jo-Wilfried may be the most dangerous man in the draw after the big 4.  He’s been in the final at AO before and it would only be a mild surprise if he were to do it again.  Monfils is likewise massively talented and he could pull an upset, even if the title is out of reach.

 

Much has been made of Murray’s switch to Lendl as a coach.  I think it can’t but help him.  Will it be enough to overcome Tsonga’s recent incredible form?  Although Tsonga’s lone win came at AO in 2008, based on a 1-5 history, my vote is with Murray.

 

Murray def Tsonga

 

Top Quarter

Is Djokovic 2011 back?  Expecting a similar cornucopia of results as last year is probably unreasonable, but there is little to make one suspect Novak won’t play at the same level.  His quarter is not particularly difficult, but there are some potential upsetters here:  Milos Raonic (23) and tough outs Roddick (15) and Ferrer (5).

 

Raonic is as much of a wildcard as John Isner is.  That big serve can be devastating.  Purportedly, Raonic has more in the ‘rest of the game’ department, but Isner has so far been better at exploiting his talent and translating it into consistent wins.  It could be wild fourth rounder but I’d expect Novak’s more complete game and the best return in tennis to prevail.

 

Of course there’s the ticklish matter of Roddick for Raonic to navigate first.  The former USO winner could round into brilliant form, even if it would be unexpected.

 

The metronomic consistency of Ferrer might be Djokovic’s biggest challenge in this quarter.  Their 6-5 record (for Novak) bespeaks a close rivalry and Ferrer should never be underestimated.  But if Novak is close to last year’s form, it should go his way.

 

Djokovic def Ferrer

 

Semis

Another Federer-Nadal classic would indeed be a treat.  This should be Federer’s for the taking based on surface alone, but last year’s four instalments of the rivalry went 3-1 for Nadal, including a drubbing on hard in Miami.  Nadal’s game poses particular challenges for Federer.  If there is any argument against adopting a two-handed backhand it should be demolished by observing that the ‘greatest player of all time’ with one of if not ‘the’ best one-handers of all time, finds that backhand a weakness against his greatest rival.  Because Federer’s amazing one-hander is a weakness, I’ve switched to double-fist.

 

I expect it to be close, and I expect Nadal to prevail.

 

Nadal def Federer

 

The first ever Murray-Djokovic major semi could be revealing.  Will Murray be able to prevail on the big stage if he doesn’t have the pressure of a final tying him down?

 

Djokovic def Murray

 

Final

Questions are sure to swirl again about Nadal losing his edge.  It’s by no means a given against what may be the greatest competitor of all time, but this is now Novak’s surface.

 

Djokovic def Nadal

 

 

Average from bookies.com, 14 Jan 2012

 

1	Djokovic, N	2.24
2	Federer, R	4.74
3	Murray, A	6.23
4	Nadal, R	6.68
5	Del Potro, JM	16.89
6	Tsonga, JW	17.72
7	Berdych, T	35.28
8	Ferrer, D	53.50
9	Tomic, B	64.83
10	Raonic, M	65.11
11	Monfils, G	79.72
12	Fish, M	112.94
13	Tipsarevic, J	120.60
14	Dolgopolov, A	126.24
15	Baghdatis, M	129.38
16	Roddick, A	154.06
17	Isner, J	159.56
18	Gasquet, R	184.27
19	Söderling, R	187.67
20	Simon, G	200.94
21	Verdasco, F	202.33
22	Cilic, M	202.50
23	Nalbandian, D	212.06
24	Wawrinka, S	237.60