And now...
The Women – 19 July 2012
Love her or hate her, you can’t ignore Serena Williams. Her Wimbledon victory two weeks ago
emphasized that she is far from over-the-hill.
She is a force. If she makes up
her mind to win a title, can any woman stand in her way? Even in her shocking loss to Virginie Razzano
at the French Open, it seemed less about Razzano – who, granted, gave a brave
and gutsy performance – and more about what was going on in Ms. Williams’ head
(witness 47 unforced errors).
If Serena loses, it’s because she beats herself, or she’s
injured, or she’s not tournament tough.
It can sound like a list of excuses, but it’s not. When was the last time an in-form Serena lost
(not on clay)? When’s the last time she
was really beaten? Maybe the 2008
Wimbledon final when she lost to sister Venus... or maybe in the Henin days of
2007 when Henin beat her in the QF of Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the US
Open? That’s five years ago.
But can anyone of the current crop of players actually take
down Serena? I had hopes for Petra
Kvitova. She has a huge go-for-broke
game and maybe the 2011 Wimbledon version of Kvitova might have been up for the
task, but the 2012 edition has proven a bit unreliable. What about Samantha Stosur at last year’s US
Open? Whether or not Serena was
in-form or not might be debated by the
die-hards, but overall making it to a slam final is probably an indication of
reasonable form. So yes Stosur actually
beat Serena, but it’s not something I’m expecting her to do again anytime soon. Sam has not shown the consistency to beat
anyone regularly.
Olympics
Unfortunately, I expect the women’s version of the tennis
Olympics to be pretty much a rehash of Wimbledon... if Serena wants this title
– and she has never won an Olympic gold in singles (but has two in doubles with
Venus) she will take it. It may not be
quite as effortless as some of her past wins.
She’s on the cusp of 31 years, afterall.
But on grass, she has to be the favourite. A more difficult question might be who will
face her in the final?
Agnieszka Radwanska is a reasonable bet to repeat her
Wimbledon finalist result, but I doubt she should be more favoured than Maria Sharapova,
or Victoria Azarenaka, or maybe Sabine Lisicki.
The pack is not exactly nipping at Serena’s heals – especially on grass.
The fight will be for the silver
medal. Kvitova, Kerber, and Bartoli
could have something to say about it. It
will be interesting to see if an extra 2 weeks on grass will help players
adjust.
US Open
But moving from the greens to the blue cement of the North
American hardcourt season the field equalizes a bit. There are 6 active players who have won the
US title: Serena (1999, 2002, 2008), Kim
Clijsters (2005, 2009, 2010), Venus (2000, 2001), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2004),
Sharapova (2006), and Stosur (2011).
It’s also interesting that the last 7 slam tournaments have had 7
different winners. If an 8th
name is added to that list at the US Open, it will be only the second time
there have been 8 different winners in 2 years (1937-38). Such parity has not been common in women’s
tennis.
Kim Clijsters has apparently claimed she will retire (again)
after this year’s USO. Given her lack of
play this year and her forgettable results, it would be tempting to write her
off as chanceless in New York. Except
for 2009. After a 2 ½ year break
followed by two middling warm-up events, Clijsters shocked the world by seizing
the Open title, dismantling a storming (“shove this ball down your throat”) Serena
in the semi-finals. Kim’s done it
before, can she do it again? I have my
doubts. They centre around Kim’s state
of mind. In 2009, she was coming out of
nowhere with nothing to lose. She was
coming back – the future looked limitless.
Now, 3 years later, she’s retiring – this is her last chance – she has
everything to lose – and the future, tenniswise, looks finite. I expect all of that will translate into
maybe a decent 4th round showing, and not much more. (Watch her prove me wrong!)
The logical pick for Flushing Meadows would seem to be
Serena. She’s 34-3 on the year. That’s right, only 3 losses. They came to
Razzano, Makarova, and Wozniacki. Decent
players to be sure. Wozniacki perhaps is
the only elite player of that group, or maybe, “was” the only elite player. She has been plain awful this year, batting
22-13, with no titles. This from a woman
who led the title count for the last 2 years, finishing computer #1 in both.
So Serena’s losses seem to come at unexpected times to
unexpected players. It’s possible she’ll
crash out in New York. Whether or not she
does may depend on how hungry she is.
With a Wimbledon title and maybe an Olympic medal around her neck,
Serena might start to show her disinterested side again. She certainly has the talent to win the US
Open. She’s clearly the woman to beat.
Will that be enough to keep her focussed?
Maria Sharapova has been having a pretty good year too. Runner-up spots in Australia, Indian Wells,
and Miami were a great start and she followed it up with titles at Stuttgart,
Madrid, and Roland Garros – arguably the best record of the year, to date. She hiccupped at Wimbledon, although the
woman who beat her, Sabine Lisicki, is a fine grass court player. With more time to accustom to the grass, I
think Sharapova is among those who could benefit most for the Olympics. But hard courts have been her perennial
strength. And she will want to redeem
her shocking 3R USO exit last year. If
Serena is the least bit iffy on effort, Sharapova may be the favourite for the
title.
And what of Victoria Azarenka? She stormed from the blocks at the start of
the year winning the first 4 tournaments she played, including her first slam
title at the Australian. She’s cooled a
little since then, but with the return to summer hardcourts, there’s no reason
her hard, flat game and new-found consistency shouldn’t translate into more
titles. Will it be enough for the big
stage in New York? History would
certainly say “no”. Victoria has never
been past the 4th round at the US Open and even that result came in
2007. There must be something about the
grounds or the courts that throw her off – it’s shockingly bad for someone of
her ranking. On the other hand, maybe
she’s ripe for a NY breakthrough. Li Na
had never been past 4R at the French before she won it. Maybe Victoria can do the same.
Speaking of Li, she has largely faded from the radar this
year dropping to 11th in the WTA rankings. Her best showings have been finalist slots at
Sydney and Rome. At USO her previous
best is QF in 2009. Weighing heavily is
her lack of a big result this year, making it seem unlikely she will do
anything noteworthy at the US Open. She
does not seem in the mental latitude of triumph.
Sam Stosur, as well, has been middling since her triumph
last year in New York. Her best showings
have been the final in Doha and SF at Roland Garros. Her record at the USO is comprised of four 1R
losses, two 2R, one QF and one title.
Not exactly confidence-inspiring for bettors. All that said, she has not looked awful this
year and is still at #5 in the WTA rankings. Another QF at Flushing is a reasonable
expectation.
Petra Kvitova was the darling of the media and bookies at
the start of the year. She was named
“Player of the Year” for 2011 by both the WTA and the ITF, and honoured with
lowest odds by the bookies for the Australian Open. All this without ever achieving the #1
computer ranking. But she was cast aside
almost instantaneously when Azarenka squealed to the top in Australia. Kvitova has fared decently at the slams this
year, going SF-SF-QF. However, those
have been the highlights of an otherwise dismal year.
Remarkably, both she and Wozniacki, who shared credit for
most titles in 2011 at 6 each, have not won a title between them in 2012. Hard court is probably Kvitova’s weakest
surface, although it is doubtful she will do as badly as last year’s 1R loss at
the US Open.
I would give Kvitova second billing at the Olympics (behind
Serena) if she had showed even a glimmer of promise this year, but instead
Sharapova and Azarenka look more likely for that spot. In New York, Kvitova looks like a reasonable
bet for QF at best.
Aggie Radwanska seems at her best on grass, but like
Azarenka, has never been past 4R at USO, losing in 2R the last 3 years. But it was after USO 2011 that the new
Radwanska was born. A year ago she had
won a total of 4 titles in her career.
In the last year she has added another six. Surely she must do better at this year’s US
Open than last. I doubt that she will
contend for the title, but she will probably be among the top 5 or so among the
bookies favourites. Semi-final would not
be surprising, but I think QF is more likely.
Caroline Wozniacki has been to the SF or better at Flushing
the last three years. It is far and away
her best slam. She has been slumping
badly this year for a woman ranked yearend #1 the last two years. I will be watching to see if she can turn in
some decent hard court results this summer.
Despite her current #8 ranking, on a surface that favours her while
seemingly hurting so many of her top rivals, she will be my pick for SF or
better.
Two other players deserve mention in my mind: Sara Errani and Dominika Cibulkova. Errani exploded into recognition with her
final round showing at Roland Garros, but she had been giving notice all year
that she had jumped a level. She made QF
at the Australian Open and then followed it up with three 280 point
titles. The big splash she made in Paris
is bound to be followed by a some recovery time. Her 3R at Wimbledon is about what I expect
from her at the Olympics and US Open.
Dominika Cibulkova may seem an odd choice for attention but
she has shown she can take down just about any name when she’s on. She has victories over Azarenka, Sharapova,
Wozniacki, and Venus Williams. She made
QF at USO in 2010. She won’t be taken
lightly by opponents. She has not shown
the consistency to be counted a favourite at a slam, but at a number 14
ranking, and with her history of big wins she will make opponents apprehensive.
The Germans
What to make of the wave of excellent German players
currently sweeping over women’s tennis?
Certainly none compare to the exalted Steffi Graf. But it is unexpected to have 4 or 5 women
from the same country (not Russia or the US) contending for the top 10.
Angelique Kerber is the highest ranked at #7. Her surprising Wimbledon run to the
semi-finals backed up what seemed a total fluke last year when she made the US
Open semis ranked 92 in the world. In
the last four slam events she has won 16 matches, a total tied with Serena and
bested only by Azarenka with 17 wins and Sharapova with 18. Kerber is 24 years old and this seems late
for a breakthrough to the top echelon.
Given the unpredictability of women’s tennis in the last few years
(Schiavone, Li, Stosur) I’m not willing to rule out a slam breakthrough, but
realistically, I’m betting we’ve just seen Kerber’s peak. I expect no better than 4R at USO from her.
Sabine Lisicki is another story. She has had 3 solid years at Wimbledon,
QF-SF-QF, and could be a real threat at the Olympics. At the US Open she made 4R last year. I’ll be looking to see if she is still
improving on hard courts. How she fares
this summer in the US could be telling for her future.
Andrea Petkovic burst into consciousness last year with 3
slam QF showings. But she has been
plagued by injury and it is troubling to see this young talent sidelined in her
prime years. She hasn’t played since
April, so even if she does come back she likely won’t be ready to do much
damage till next year. All the best to
her in her recovery.
Julia Goerges may not threaten at a slam, but Mona Barthel,
ranked 41, might. She’s just turned 22
and has the big hitting game that will make top players nervous if she happens
to be connecting. I have not seen enough
success from her to feel she is a threat for a deep run at a slam, but taking
out a big seed in a slam would not surprise.
Summary
I’m looking for Serena to do well at the Olympics. The US Open is a cipher for me. No one looks ready to win it. I count Serena, Azarenka, and Sharapova to be
in the most dangerous form. Maybe
Wozniacki will finally rise up or Clijsters will charge again at her most
successful slam. With hesitation I
predict Sharapova over Azarenka in the final.
If one of those can do it, they should finish the year at #1 on the
computer, but to my mind the “real #1” will be Serena.
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