Wimbledon Men 2012

Wimbledon 2012 Men

 

The #1 ranking is up for grabs.  Whichever member of the top 3 can claim the title also becomes #1.  I don’t remember a situation like this since the hoary year of 2003 during the halcyon days of Roddick, Ferrero, and a newly emerging Roger Federer.  And if anyone else wins, the ranking stays with Djokovic.

Has Nadal turned the tables from 2011 and does he now have Novak’s number?  Does Federer have one good run left?  Will Murray ever be better than 4^th best?  Can Tsonga or Berdych prevail (just for 2 weeks) over the Greatest Top Three of All Time?

 

First Quarter

Djokovic will be the overwhelming favourite in this quarter but knocks around with such names as Harrison, Yen-Hsun, Stepanek (28), Almagro (12), Gasquet (18) and Gulbis.  Any of that group could prove testy but probably only Berdych (6) has a realistic shot at toppling Novak.  It was only 2 years ago that Berdych knocked off Federer and made the final here – only to suffer a respectable loss in which he never appeared to be a serious threat.  Can he go one better?

Djokovic looks weak compared to last year, garnering only 2 tournament wins (7 at this time last year).  Those wins did come at the Australian and Miami, arguably two of the three biggest titles for the year so far.  Runner up spots at Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros are also laudable.  The difference is three consecutive losses to Nadal.  Granted they were all on clay.  So has Nadal figured out the stretching Serb or is this just a clay thing?

It looks to me that Djokovic is conserving his mental energy for when it counts.  Making his first Paris final was probably a big enough leap.  Beating Nadal in his stronghold was probably too big an ask. 

But this is grass.  Novak has not always looked strong on grass – there was the second round loss to Safin in 2008 and the quarter to Haas in 2009 – but now he is the defending champ.  He’s earned his laurels on the surface and will always be a threat.

Berdych may be playing better than in 2010, but I doubt it will be enough to stop the Djuggernaut.

Djokovic d. Berdych

 

Second Quarter

The odds that Federer and Djokovic would end up in the same half at a slam AGAIN, a string broken only once or twice in the last 20-odd GS events, are astronomical – not far from a million to one.  Considering that this configuration could yield a highly marketable Nadal-Federer final makes the outcome seem a little less accidental.  When it comes to draw-fixing… paint me a deep shade of dubious.

The idea that longest-match-of-all-time opponents Isner and Mahut could meet by the second round for the third consecutive year also seems highly suspicious – but what do I know…

Federer has perhaps the most manageable path to the semis of the big four.  Next highest seeds Tipsarevic (11) and Isner (8) have not been known for deep runs at the tournament and would have to face each other before Federer.  Former finalist Nalbandian is Janko’s first round opponent.  The talented and mercurial Argentine could run deep, but his best days are likely behind him and putting the drama of last week’s kicking-default behind him could prove the real challenge. 

Gilles Simon (13) could provide a minor test for the Fed in round four, but overall this should go close to form.

Federer d. Isner

 

Third Quarter

In some ways the weakest quarter (none of the Big Three are here), this could also prove the least predictable.  Murray, seeded 4^th, has to be the favourite; but Ferrer (newly minted grass champ of s’Hertogenbosch), three-time finalist Roddick (30), Del Potro (9), Cilic (16) – another new grass champ, and bombs-away Raonic (21) could all be grass nightmares.

Further complication for Murray in round two could take the form of Ivo Karlovic (dubbed “the lottery” by Nadal) whose serve loves grass.  Next server on the gauntlet for Murray could be Kevin Anderson (32) followed by either Cilic or Raonic.  One of the game’s best returners, Murray should either be in deadly return form or exhausted by the time he reaches QF where he could face Del Potro, Roddick, or Ferrer.

On the one hand Roddick has been dismal this year.  On the other he just won Eastbourne.  Del Potro and Ferrer are awesome players who have learned to make their games work on grass.  Roddick is a natural who’s starting to look a little long in the tooth.  A matchup among them could come down to who’s having the best day.  Can Roddick stay grooved?  This may be his last best shot at Wimbledon.

Murray d. Roddick

 

Fourth Quarter

For once Nadal’s draw does not look like a gimme.  The main reason is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (5), semi-finalist here last year after a harrowing escape in 5 sets against Federer. 

Tsonga may never win the French, but his odds at Wimbledon, where grass suits his charging game, have got to be better than on clay.  Tsonga has not looked particularly strong this spring, with QF at Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome, and Paris – nor is this particularly weak.  With a few grass matches to round into form, Tsonga could prove a handful for Nadal by the quarters.

To get there Tsonga may have to negotiate Wawrinka (25) not much of a threat on grass, and Tomic (20) or Fish (10) both of whom made QF here last year.

Nadal’s path includes the highly talented Bellucci in R1 and possibly Haas or Kohlschreiber (27) in R3.  Haas shocked Federer in Halle last week, and at the same tournament Kohlschreiber beat Nadal before losing two close sets to Haas.  It’s almost a shame the Germans play each other in the first round.  Should he survive those tests, Nadal is seeded to meet Lopez (14) in round four.  Lopez has made the last 16 at Wimbledon no less than 5 times, thrice going on to the quarters.

If Nadal has to overcome all these obstacles and defeat Tsonga, he will have a very earn-ed place in the final four.  But this should be doable – he is afterall a 5-time finalist.

Nadal d. Tsonga

 

Semis

Federer may in fact be the greatest player to have ever lived.  But age is never kind and his younger and faster rivals show no propensity for mercy.

Djokovic d. Federer

Andy Murray is an enormously talented player whose lot has been cast among possibly the strongest top 3 of all time.  He does have a realistic chance to beat Nadal, but unfortunately it’s less than half.

Nadal d. Murray

 

Final

If they make it, it will be the 5^th consecutive GS final for this pair – unequalled in the men’s or women’s game – even by the great Evert-Navratilova hegemony of the 1980’s (they topped out at 3 straight, or 5 of 6 in 1984-5). 

Nadal is incredibly tenacious.  He flattens out his strokes a little for grass, but their inherent goodness – deep, penetrating, high margin for error – works on any surface.  Nadal is quick and has amazing timing to pull off that much spin while on the run.

Djokovic is just as quick, maybe even quicker, and seems even more maneuverable than Nadal.  His return is fearsome and his backhand is a weapon.  Both players (aged 25 and 26) are at or near the peak of their powers.  Nadal has more grass court experience.  Djokovic may have a more natural game for grass.  Nadal has tournament momentum.  Djokovic, with fewer slam titles, may have more hunger.  It’s really too close to call, but call I must.  I’ll go with the natural…

Djokovic d. Nadal

 

Bookies.com average on 24 Jun 2012

1	Djokovic, N	2.63
2	Nadal, R	3.19
3	Federer, R	5.58
4	Murray, A	12.50
5	Tsonga, JW	28.35
6	Raonic, M	31.24
7	Berdych, T	32.24
8	Del Potro, JM	42.00
9	Isner, J	62.88
10	Tomic, B	103.18
11	Roddick, A	155.00
12	Haas, T	163.69
13	Ferrer, D	167.44
14	Cilic, M	179.71
15	Tipsarevic, J	225.88
16	Nalbandian, D	227.94
17	Söderling, R	234.00
18	Gasquet, R	246.47
19	Dimitrov, G	251.18
20	Monfils, G	259.33
21	Dolgopolov, A	341.18
22	Ljubicic, I	351.00
23	Fish, M	352.06
24	Lopez, F	360.29
25	Kohlschreiber, P	394.31
26	Karlovic, I	403.20
27	Wawrinka, S	406.47
28	Simon, G	407.94
29	Almagro, N	414.87
30	Anderson, K	417.53
31	Youzhny, M	430.87

 

Expert picks (espn.com mostly not reporting)

1.  Djokovic (4 picks) – Bowers (tennisserver.com); Pagliaro (tennis.com); Price, Graham (SI.com)

1.  Nadal (4 picks) – Tignor, Bodo, McGrogan (tennis.com); PMcEnroe (espn.com)

3.  Federer (3 picks) – Wertheim, Jenkins, Nguyen (SI.com)