French 2013 - Men's Preview

French 2013 – Men’s Preview

Is there a real chance that Rafael Nadal could lose at Roland Garros this year?  The signals we’ve been receiving have been a little mixed.  Nadal has won 6 of 8 tournaments he’s played so far, including dominating performances at Rome and Madrid.  With 7 French titles under his belt, he would seem the obvious pick for the title again.

Except for one very minor inconvenience, that former bastion of Nadalism, Monte Carlo, was wrested from his grip after 8 successive championships, by Novak Djokovic.  Djokovic played inspired tennis in straight-setting Nadal in the final, but then was dismal in Rome and Madrid, falling in the QF of Rome to Berdych, and in his first match at Madrid to Dimitrov.

Has Djokovic faltered? or is he playing possum and saving his energy for a big push in Paris?  Does he really have a chance against Nadal?

What does the draw suggest about matches we may see?

First Quarter

For the second year in a row and his 6^th time at a Grand Slam tournament, Djokovic is the number 1 seed.  He started the year on a tear, winning the Australian Open and Dubai, and carrying a 22-match unbeaten streak into the SF of Indian Wells, before losing to an inspired Del Potro.  But he’s 11-4 in his last 15 matches and looking distinctly mortal.

However there was that inspired run in Monte Carlo.  He made the final facing only one top 20 player along the way – Juan Monaco at #20.  But he looked decimating in crushing Nadal 6-2 in the first set of the final.  He struck backhands bravely and consistently, covered Nadal’s angles and made Nadal’s side of the court look much larger than it usually does.  The second set was much closer (7-6), but the important thing is that he hung tight and closed it out when Nadal applied the inevitable pressure.

I wondered after 2011 if Djokovic found the mental fortitude required to sustain his incredible winning streaks of that year exhausting.  When a player gets on a role, maybe the wins pile up easily, but does it, eventually, start to feel like a burden to be unbeaten?  If Djokovic is conscious of this, or maybe even subconscious of it, he’s certainly done a fine job of relieving the pressure this year.   Has he been too lax?  Has he slipped so far from winning that he won’t be able to muster 7 consecutive matches?  Can he right the ship at the French?

David Goffin in the first round is a decent clay player who had Federer on the ropes last year in the fourth round.  But he has not regained that form and I doubt he has the weapons to threaten a Djokovic who was at least at 80%.  The third round could bring up Grigor Dimitrov (seeded 26), who beat Novak in Monte Carlo.  Dimitrov might just be finding a mature game that could seriously threaten the top, or his spring successes could be a blip.  Will he follow this year in the footsteps of Federer who broke through at the slam level at age 21?  Expect Djokovic to be alert and primed if they should meet.  Kohlschreiber (16) or Dolgopolov (22) could be obstacles to the QF, but overall Djokovic should sail through with the loss of a set or two along the way to the fine field he is likely to face.

The most likely QF opponents are Haas (12), Tipsarevic (8), Youzhny (29), or Verdasco (u).  Only Youzhny in this section has ever made a French QF before.

Djokovic d. Haas

Second Quarter

Even without the exit of Andy Murray, I was more certain than I should be that Nadal would land on the opposite side of the draw from Djokovic.  Could any tournament promoter really want the two most likely champions in the same half?  But of course draws are random, aren’t they?  Computer-generated or drawn by hand?

I was not a fan of the conspiracy theorist pet peeve of draw-fixing until I started to look at the numbers.  Starting with 2008 when Djokovic and Murray first came to prominence and through 2011[1], Djokovic and Federer have consistently landed in the same half of the draw at GS tournaments, opposite Nadal 14 out of 16 times.  The odds of that are 1 in 4,096, or extremely remote.  The only two exceptions in that 4 year period were both at the French Open, which means that it alone perhaps is truly random.  So perhaps I should not have assumed that Nadal (seeded 3) would land in the Federer half.  And true to form, the French has proven seemingly more ‘random’ than the other GS events.

Aside from the huge white elephant of 7-time French champion, 8-time Monte Carlo champion, 7-time Rome champion, 8-time Barcelona champion, and 6-time finalist (but surprisingly only 3-time winner) at Madrid/German Open aka ‘the other clay Masters 1000’... i.e. Rafael Nadal, this quarter is wide open.

i.e. cannon fodder.

Lukas Rosol, Nadal’s conqueror in his last grand slam match, might have a chance if this were grass.  But on clay, Rosol is not expected to survive to their 3^rd round meeting.  If he does, I’d expect him to get 5 games or less from Nadal.  Kei Nishikori (16) could prove more challenging in round 4.  Nishikori took down Federer in Madrid, but then lost to 113-ranked Pablo Andujar.

Interesting names in the opposing eighth include the unpredictable Jerzy Janowicz (21), Stanislas Wawrinka (9), and Richard Gasquet (7).  Janowicz had looked pedestrian on clay this season until Madrid where he beat Tsonga and Gasquet, before losing a solid fight to Federer.  Gasquet is having one of the more consistently good passages of his career and has solidified a position in the top 10 for the last 7 months.

Wawrinka may be the most credible clay threat for Nadal outside of the top 4.  He is 19-5 (0.792) on the surface this year, and 0.654 for his career, by far his best surface.

Nadal d. Wawrinka

Third Quarter

So this is the David Ferrer quarter.  Ferrer was extremely impressive last year, claiming a tour-leading 7 tournaments.  He’s been about as fine this year, winning two minor tournaments and making SF in Melbourne.  He’s strong on clay and owns 3 wins over Djokovic on the surface (albeit, the last one was in 2009).  He’s definitely the favourite for his eighth, but at 31 years old, the wins may not come easy.  I expect Kevin Anderson (23) will supercede Milos Raonic (14) for fourth round honours against Ferrer.  Anderson has had a decent clay spurt (8-4) beating Cilic, Janowicz, Monaco, and Melzer this spring.

Seeds in the opposing eighth include Berdych (5), Almagro (11), Seppi (20), and a resurgent Tommy Robredo (32).  Berdych would seem the obvious pick but he’ll have a tenuous time in what is likely the most intriguing first round match of the tournament against former semi-finalist Gael Monfils.  Based on match toughness I’ll pick Berdych to come through that one but it could be a squeaker.

Between Ferrer and Berdych the head to head is 3-2 for Ferrer on clay, and 3-1 for Ferrer on hard.  The last clay match was 2007.  They’re probably both better on clay now.

Ferrer d. Berdych

Fourth Quarter

Roger Federer has played in 5 of the last 7 Roland Garros finals, so to portray him as ‘weak’ on clay must be comparative only – compared to his record on grass or to Nadal on clay, say.  He’s been seeded in the top 3 a mind-boggling 40 consecutive slam tournaments – 10 straight years – and either 1 or 2 in all but the 6 slams between Fre 2011 and Wim 2012.  What a slacker.  He’s reached the QF or better in the last 35 slam events, topping the previous record of 34 held by Chris Evert.[2]  Graf is 3^rd with 31 straight QFs and Connors 4^th with 27.  Djokovic is 5^th on the men’s list (14^th overall) with 15 and counting.

Player	Consecutive QF showings in GS events they have played
Federer	35
Evert	34
Graf	31
Connors	27
Wills	22[3]
Tilden	21[4]
Court	19
BJKing	19
Navratilova	19

Still there is no denying that the inevitable decay of age has set into Roger’s game.  He’s won only two tournaments in the last 12 months, the most recent being Cincinnati 9 months ago.  Ferrer and Berdych have amassed more ATP points than he has this year.

He’s still good, very good.  And it would be hard to bet against him until the quarters or semis.  But one gets the impression that he could be vulnerable.  Maybe that incredible QF streak of 35 ends here.  Candidates for the job will be hard to find in his cream puff draw.

Julien Benneteau (30) is the first seed he could meet in R3, but although Benneteau has beaten him in the past and played a number of matches close, on clay Federer should sail through.  Likewise Gilles Simon (15) in R4.

Names lurking in the other eighth include Cilic (10), Monaco (17), and Tsonga (8):  fine clay players to be sure.  But unless Roger has an off day, he should win against any of those – even Tsonga.  Tsonga has beaten him 3 times, but none of the last 5 or their only clay meeting.  Overall, 9-3 for Roger.

Cilic can be a dangerous player on clay and could upset Tsonga.  But Tsonga and Federer is probably too big an ask for Cilic.

James Blake makes an appearance in the draw near Monaco.  With a best ever 3R showing here back in his prime of 2006, he will do very well if he gets out of his first round matchup with Troicki.

Federer d. Tsonga

Semis

Predicting the top 4 seeds to make the semis may seem a bit ‘predictable’ but they really are the favourites.  Still, it would be surprising if all four made it through.  Djokovic and Nadal really are the two favourites, enjoying a substantial advantage in the bookies estimations.  So their semi, if it happens, could well determine the championship.  There’s no question Nadal is the favourite.  Nadal garnered 3100 ranking points during the clay swing and Djokovic only 1190 (third is Berdych with 855). 

The head to head is 19-15 for Nadal, and on clay it’s 12-3.  But looking closer, the last 6 matches on clay are 3-3, with Djokovic winning their only matchup this year.  Nadal has looked dominant on clay.  Djokovic has looked streaky.  I’d say Nadal has a better chance of making it to the semi-final, but if they both get there, the odds reset.  Some of it will be mental.  Is Djokovic in Nadal’s head at all? The loss in Monte Carlo has to weigh a little bit on Nadal.  I can hear it already.  Nadal will say, “I’m not the favourite,” while the bookies will disagree.  It seems to be the position from which Nadal is most successful. 

For his part, Djokovic may remember last year’s final when he seemed to be gaining the upper hand only to see it swept away in a rain delay and Nadal’s superior play.  So... seven-time and defending champion at Roland Garros, best of five, red clay, 35-1 at RG, 36-2 on the year...

Nadal d. Djokovic

If they should both make it this far, this might be, finally, Ferrer’s best chance to beat Federer against whom he is 0 and 14.  Ferrer’s best surface against Federer’s worst.  A tired, old, Federer with his eyes already set on Wimbledon...  David playing some of the best tennis of his life – a chance to make a life time statement as a grand slam finalist...

It really is the best possible draw for Federer to make his 6^th final.

Federer d. Ferrer

Final

No contest.  Nadal d. Federer

Nadal becomes the first man to win 8 singles titles at any slam event, (not including Max Decugis who won 8 French Closed championships in the early 1900’s), and moves into a tie for 3^rd on the all time GS singles list with 12 titles.

Bookies

Average decimal odds from bookies.com on 25 May 2013

	Player	Odds
1	Nadal, R	1.71
2	Djokovic, N	3.22
3	Federer, R	11.00
4	Ferrer, D	18.78
5	Berdych, T	37.39
6	Tsonga, JW	54.00
7	Gulbis, E	85.78
8	Wawrinka, S	87.83
9	Dimitrov, G	99.22
10	Almagro, N	109.78
11	Gasquet, R	161.33
12	Monaco, J	218.83
13	Janowicz, J	220.75
14	Haas, T	278.40
15	Raonic, M	296.06
16	Paire, B	320.75
17	Monfils, G	327.47
18	Simon, G	367.44
19	Cilic, M	376.33
20	Dolgopolov, A	470.22
21	Nishikori, K	475.75
22	Tipsarevic, J	486.89
23	Fognini, F	491.69
24	Isner, J	522.31

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[1] Federer and Nadal landed in the same half of AO 2012 – the first time that had happened since Fre 2005.  Because of their seeding it was only the 6^th time the combination was possible during that period.

[2] Evert missed some slams but made the SF or better in 34 straight slam events that she played. 

[3] 23 if including the World Hard Court Championships (which were the Olympics) in 1924

[4] Includes one challenge round