Wimbledon Women Preview 2013

Wimbledon Women Preview 2013

Does anyone not named Serena have a chance?

How is it that Serena Williams has gotten so good?  Just 6 weeks younger than Federer, why is age not slowing her down the way his powers are decaying?  With a victory at Wimbledon she would equal Federer’s haul of 17 slam titles.  But unlike him, she looks capable of adding many more.  She could well surpass Navratilova, Evert, and Wills, maybe even Graf and Court.  How much more does Serena have left?  It does not seem we are seeing the closing chapter on her talent.

GS singles titles:

Rank	Player	GS singles titles
1	Margaret Court	24
2	Steffi Graf	22
3	Helen Wills	20*
4	Martina Navratilova	18
4	Chris Evert	18
6	Serena Williams	16
7	Billie Jean King	12
7	Suzanne Lenglen	12**

*Includes WHCC/Oly win in 1924
**Includes 4 WHCC (World Hard Court Chps) wins

Although Serena may be the first woman to achieve 4 GS titles after the age of 30 in the Open era (since RG 1968), this feat has been accomplished 5 times previously, although only once since the GS era began (1925).

Player	GS singles titles after age 30	Era
Molla Bjurstedt Mallory	8	1910-20’s
Margaret Osborne DuPont	4	1940-50’s
Dorothea Douglass Chambers	4	1900-10’s
Elizabeth Moore	4	1890-1900’s
Blanche Bingley Hillyard	4	1880-1900’s
Serena Williams	3	1990-2010’s
Martina Navratilova	3	1970-90’s
Margaret Court	3	1960-70’s
Althea Gibson	3	1950’s
Nancy Wynne Bolton	3	1930-50’s

Serena is an amazing 74-3 since the dawn of Wimbledon 12 months ago.  Her losses have come to Angelique Kerber, Sloane Stephens, and Victoria Azarenka.  She’s currently on a 35 match win streak, the longest since sister Venus hit 35 in 2000.  If she extends the streak through Wimbledon to 42 matches it will be the longest since Steffi Graf won 44 straight in 1993, and the 10^th longest of the open era.

Player	Win streak	Period
Suzanne Lenglen	181	1922-26
Helen Wills	180	1926-33
Suznne Lenglen	128	1914-1921
Alice Marble	111	1938-40
Martina Navratilova	74	1984
Steffi Graf	66	1989-90
Martina Navratilova	58	1986-87
Margaret Court	57	1972-73
Chris Evert	55	1974
Martina Navratilova	54	1983-84
Steffi Graf	46	1988
Steffi Graf	45	1987
Steffi Graf	44	1993
Martina Navratilova	41	1982
Martina Hingis	37	1997

(NB: sources disagree, Wills streak could be 158, Lenglen’s 2^nd streak 116.  Streaks by MWatson, LDod, and DDouglassChambers from the early days of tennis could be around 50.)

Serena’s streak is alive and could grow longer.  But nothing is for certain.  Serena’s loss at the Australian this year was a real surprise.  It could happen again.

Top quarter

Serena Williams must be regarded as the overwhelming favourite in this quarter.  It’s been since Graf and Navratilova that we’ve experienced this sense of inevitability.  But her draw is not a gimme and there are potential landmines that could blow up.  The second round could bring up Jie Zheng, who made SF here in 2008, losing a tight 2^nd set tiebreak to Serena.  Serena won’t be underestimating her.

R3 could bring up Tamira Paszek (seeded 28), not exactly a model of consistency, but she has made QF here the last two years.  Although Samantha Stosur (14) is seeded as a fourth round opponent, she is tragic at Wimbledon, making 3R only once in 10 attempts and posting a 6-10 match record on the hallowed lawns.  Much more dangerous will be Sabine Lisicki (23).  There is nothing consistent about Lisicki except her continued excellence at Wimbledon.  She’s made at least QF the last 3 times she played, SF in 2011.

The quarter opponent for Serena could be last year’s SFist and conqueror of Lisicki, Angelique Kerber (7), one of only 3 women to post a victory over Serena in the last year.  In short, for anyone else this would be a murderous draw: Zheng, Paszek, Lisicki, Kerber in succession on grass.  If there is any wavering by Serena at all during the fortnight – this quarter is sure to test her.

On the positive side, the next 3 highest players as ranked by the bookies, Azarenka, Sharapova, and Kvitova, are all on the other half of the draw and will have to duke it out among themselves to give one of them a shot against Serena, no earlier than the final.

Average decimal odds from bookies.com on 22 June 2013:

Odds Rank	Player	Bookies Odds
1	Williams, S	1.42
2	Sharapova, M	7.33
3	Azarenka, V	8.43
4	Kvitova, P	23.25
5	Li, N	47.20
6	Radwanska, A	47.50
7	Kerber, A	85.15
8	Lisicki, S	86.05

Kerber’s section of this quarter also contains Maria Kirilenko (10) and Kaia Kanepi (unseeded) both of whom have made QF here.  Kirilenko especially could be dangerous.  She’s just become the 106^th woman to achieve a top 10 ranking on the WTA computer (since 1975) and won the bronze medal at last year’s Olympics at Wimbledon.  Also here is hometown up and comer, Laura Robson, in tough against Kirilenko in the first round.

SWilliams d. Kerber

Second quarter

Perusing the draw, I had a minor moment of panic about my eyes till I realized there were two Pliskova’s in this section.  And was stunned to see Michaella Krajicek in the draw as well.  Could have sworn she’d burned out and retired at least twice…  Even more disconcerting was realizing that although she made her first slam appearance way back in 2005, she’s till only 24.  So apparently she still has a future. 

Nor did my eye pass lightly over the name of Tsvetana Pironkova.  The little known compatriot of Grigor Dimitrov and the incomparable Maleeva sisters has made QF and SF in past Big W’s and scored two wins here over 5-time winner Venus Williams. Her 1R opponent, the inconsistent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (21), should be quaking in her sneakers.  TP’s likely 3R opponent is Nadia Petrova (13). 

Despite a reputation for clay play, Wimbledon is probably Petrova’s most consistent slam.  She’s made 4R or better seven times, twice going on to the QFs.  She’s been reliable about finishing exactly 4R every other time she plays, and is on schedule to continue that streak this year.  Awaiting her there is likely to be last year’s finalist Agnieszka Radwanska (4). 

Grass seems ARad’s best surface and Wimbledon is the only slam where she’s been past the quarters.  I think her quick reflexes and the way she crouches down for low-bouncing balls, typical on grass, really help her.  In the third round she could face Heather Watson, Madison Keys, Monica Niculescu, or Mona Barthel (30), all of whom her talented and about equally likely to get that far:  an interesting little section to watch…

The other half features Li Na (6) and Roberta Vinci (11) as the most prominent seeds.  With Errani ranked #5, and the two of them at #1 in the doubles rankings, we’ve somehow transitioned to a Vinci-Errani era of Italian tennis from the Schiavone-Pennetta success we enjoyed for so long.  This one also seems to have the legs to last a few years, but I can’t help looking ahead and speculating about the wonders that may await us in a Camila Giorgi-Anastassja Burnett era, perhaps??

Grass has been Vinci’s most challenging surface and Wimbledon is the only slam she doesn’t have a doubles title at.  Also here is Daniela Hantuchova who recently crested with the title at Birmingham.  She’s managed to lose 5 times to a Williams sister at the Big W, and once each to Henin, Sharapova, and Azarenka.  She’s good enough on grass to go deep enough to face quality and must be considered a contender for a QF spot.

Both Li and Dominika Cibulkova (18) have been to QF at Wimbledon before, but overall I’d call this a relatively weak quarter and Radwanska should have her way with it if she keeps her head on straight.

ARadwanska d. Hantuchova

Third quarter

This quarter is filled with burgeoning young talent that should start to show its real depth in the next year or two.  Sara Errani (5) opens against 19 year-old Monica Puig.  Also here is 18-year old Elina Svitolina, 16-year old Donna Vekic, 19 year-old Lauren Davis, Kristina Mladenovic newly 20, and of course, the #17 seed 20-year old Sloane Stephens.

Vekic made news last week reaching the final in Birmingham.  Her future looks very bright.  She could have an interesting battle with Caroline Wozniacki in the second round.  Wozniacki is generally a solid performer at Wimbledon, and her professionalism should take her through.  Her 3R could feature Stephens or the steadily improving Jamie Hampton who face off in 1R.  Hampton has wins over Kvitova and Vinci this year and just swept to the final of Eastbourne on grass this week.  Her matchup with Stephens is a bit of toss up in my mind.  Stephens seems to play well on the big stages so may have the edge.   A possible 2R opponent for them is Andrea Petkovic, still making her comeback from injury.  It’s a dense little section and whoever emerges from 3R will likely face Errani (5).

The other half is bracketed by Bartoli (15) and Sharapova (3), both former Wimbledon finalists.  Bartoli was responsible for removing Serena from the tournament two years ago and has wins here over Justine Henin and a then 3^rd-ranked Jelena Jankovic in 2007.  She could implode here, but more likely she will have some good wins and a deepish run.  She should sweep all before her before running into Sharapova in the fourth round.

Sharapova is in scintillating form and hasn’t had an early loss anywhere since 2011.  Bartoli can be difficult and tenacious, but I’ll expect Sharapova to make the QF.  Awaiting her will likely be Stephens, Wozniacki, or Errani.  I give little edge to any of them, so will stick with the seeding.

Sharapova d. Errani

Bottom quarter

I’m not expecting a breakout run from the young guns at Wimbledon this year.  The ‘old’ guard is too well-established.  So Eugenie Bouchard, 19, Garbine Muguruza, also 19, and Yulia Putintseva, 18, may have an interesting match or two before finding their current limits.  Likewise Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, former break-out semi-finalist here way back in 1999.

Serbians Ana Ivanovic (12) and Jelena Jankovic (16) are in opposite halves of this quarter and are slated to face Petra Kvitova (8) and Victoria Azarenka (2) respectively in 4R if the seeds germinate.  Both Serbs are experiencing renaissances… again… and could cause trouble for their higher-ranked fellow seeds.  3^rd-ranked by the bookies, it seems only a matter of time before Azarenka, SFist the last two years, makes a final here.

Kvitova is more difficult to analyse.  She has lost only to Serena Williams here in the last 3 years, losing a close and tense two-setter last year in QF, and winning the title over Sharapova in 2011.  Her SF break-out came in 2010.  She would seem an obvious pick for the quarters again, maybe better, and is ranked 4^th by the bookies.  Last year she was a few points from the #1 ranking, before Azarenka claimed it in a glorious 26 match win streak.

But Kvitova has been horribly inconsistent in the last two years.  Wimbledon is perhaps the last bastion for her.  She hasn’t done badly here.  Yet.  Must she lose this too if she is to regroup and improve?  Or will another deep run revitalize her?  If only Serena can beat her here, she’ll make at least the final.  Her hard-hitting first-strike style is rewarded by the low bouncing grass. 

But I suspect she will pull off a few good matches, and if she makes it as far as Azarenka, will hit the wall against Victoria’s determination.  Kvitova HAS won the last 4 matches in their head-to-head.  She’s unpredictable enough to keep probability of correct guessing low.  Will it be the title or a first round loss? Or anything in between?

Azarenka d. Kvitova

Semis

Last year SWilliams and ARadwanska met in the final.  Serena got tight in the second set and ARad nabbed a set.  There’s no question Agnieszka can play on grass, but if Serena does what she CAN do, this should be no contest.

SWilliams d. ARadwanska

The second semi is less straight forward.  Azarenka leads the head-to-head with Sharapova 7-6, although Maria has won the last two matches.  Azarenka’s is a more creative game, and Sharapova’s harder hitting.  The surface probably favours Maria slightly and she has been to two Wimbledon finals, including her 2004 coming of age at 17.  I give a slight edge to Sharapova, and if she should happen to be facing Kvitova instead of Azarenka, I still give the edge to Sharapova, a 4-2 leader in their h2h.

Sharapova d. Azarenka

Final

The most likely finalists from the bottom half are Sharapova, Azarenka, and Kvitova, in that order to my thinking.  Kvitova could well have the most entertaining match with Serena if her big lefty game is on.  Serena dominates all the head-to-heads.  Who her victim will be will make little difference to her.

Sharapova, if she makes it this far will be contesting her 3^rd Wimbledon and 9^th slam final – her 4^th in the last 2 years.  It would also be a 4^th slam final for Azarenka in the last two years.  I’m impressed with Sharapova’s consistency, professionalism, and fearlessness on the court.  But her lack of creativity is exposed by Williams.

SWilliams d. Sharapova

If Serena wins it will be her 17^th slam title and will establish her as one of the best ever, possibly the greatest of all time.  On the argument that depth in the game is more or less continually increasing, that claim is probably justified.

If things go as I foresee, the rankings after Wimbledon should change very little.  Sharapova has only a 200 point advantage going into the tournament, so any flip-flopping of the #2 ranking between Azarenka and Sharapova will be determined by their SF result, should they meet.

Current WTA rankings		Possible post-Wimbledon rankings
1	SWilliams	1	SWilliams
2	Azarenka	2	Sharapova
3	Sharapova	3	Azarenka
4	ARadwanska	4	ARadwanska
5	Errani	5	Errani

(NB: Azarenka is ranked #2 but defends more points than Sharapova, hence the 200 pt advantage for Sharapova)

Although she has been in and out of the top a few times in her career, Serena currently stands at #6 all time for weeks spent in the WTA top 10, and should move to 5^th by yearend.

Rank	Player	Weeks in WTA top 10
1	Navratilova	1000
2	Evert	743
3	Graf	672
4	Seles	624
5	Davenport	597
6	SWilliams	581
7	SanchezVicario	572
8	VWilliams	554
18	Sharapova	356
36	Wozniacki	205
37	Azarenka	202
41	ARadwanska	178

In the title count derby, Serena stands to move into a tie for 9^th with Monica Seles with her next tournament victory.

Rank	Player	WTA titles won
1	Navratilova	167
2	Evert	154
3	Graf	107
4	Court	94
5	Goolagong	68
6	BJKing	67
7	Davenport	55
7	Wade	55
9	Seles	53
10	SWilliams	52
11	VWilliams	44
17	Sharapova	29

Considering total matches won in the majors Serena is 4^th alltime, and sports a better W-L ratio than Navratilova.

Rank	Player	Total matches won in the majors*	Losses	Rate
1	Navratilova	305	49	0.862
2	Evert	296	37	0.889
3	Graf	278	32	0.897
4	SWilliams	236	36	0.868
5	VWilliams	214	51	0.808
6	SanchezVicario	210	54	0.795
7	Court	207	23	0.900
8	Davenport	198	52	0.792
9	BJKing	190	39	0.830
10	Seles	180	31	0.853
13	Hingis	153	32	0.827
15	Sharapova	148	36	0.804
~30	Wills	129	3	0.977
~50	Azarenka	83	27	0.755

*includes WHCC 1912-24

For comparison, only one man has won more slam matches than Serena.  The men’s list goes 1 Federer 256-39, 2 Connors 233-49, 3 Agasssi 224-53, 4 Lendl 222-49, 5 Emerson 210-48, 6 Sampras 203-38,… 10 Nadal 164-22, 12 Djokovic 146-28.

Experts

It’s a complete sweep for Serena.  Every expert I could track down is calling for a Williams win.

Choice	# Picks	Opiners
SWilliams	12	Tennis.com – Pagliaro, Bodo, McGrogan, Tignor ESPN – Garber, Isaacson Sports Illustrated – Deitsch, Nguyen, Price, Wertheim, Jenkins Tennisserver.com – Bowers

Nor did the bookies disagree.

Average decimal odds from bookies.com on 22 Jun 2013:

Odds Rank	Player	Bookies Odds
1	Williams, S	1.42
2	Sharapova, M	7.33
3	Azarenka, V	8.43
4	Kvitova, P	23.25
5	Li, N	47.20
6	Radwanska, A	47.50
7	Kerber, A	85.15
8	Lisicki, S	86.05
9	Wozniacki, C	110.40
10	Stosur, S	117.35
11	Stephens, S	117.45
12	Ivanovic, A	161.10
13	Hampton, J	165.75
14	Bartoli, M	196.35
15	Kirilenko, M	201.39
16	Robson, L	205.10
17	Halep, S	207.29
18	Jankovic, J	214.85
19	Petkovic, A	223.90
20	Makarova, E	267.78
21	Errani, S	270.56
22	Kanepi, K	274.60
23	Hantuchova, D	276.39
24	Vesnina, E	293.18