French 2013 - Women's Preview

French 2013 – Women’s Preview

Serena Williams was the overwhelming pick last year at this time for the French title.  She’d won 17 matches in a row on clay and had stated she ‘wanted’ the French.  Then she lost in the first round.  Things look remarkably similar this year.  Except that last year is history and maybe she will have learned from that to control her nerves better.  Can that be learned?  An in form Serena has to be a clear favourite.  If she should falter, Sharapova or Azarenka, ranked 2 and 3 in the world are the next most likely picks. 

The women have crowned a different French champion each of the last 6 years – since Justine Henin’s third straight in 2007.  Any of SWilliams, Azarenka, Errani, Stosur, or Kvitova could extend that run to 7 years.  They are 5 of the top 7 bookies picks.  Only four times in grand slam history have 7 or more different women won the title at a major consecutively:  French 1997-2004, Aus 1977-1982, French 1954-1963, Wim 1936-1948.  I’d say the odds are good we will have a fifth.  Henin can definitely be ruled out.  Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, and Schiavone look highly unlikely to repeat.  That leaves the last two champions, Li and Sharapova, who each have a reasonable chance.  Can they do it?

First Quarter

Serena Williams was predicted to win the Australian Open by 15 of 20 tennis insiders at ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and Tennis magazine as that tournament dawned.  The three who got it right and predicted Azarenka were Ubha, Graham, and Tignor.  This time all 17 analysts who have weighed in have predicted Serena – a complete sweep among the cognoscenti.  Will she prove them sage?

She last won here in 2002 and hasn’t been past the quarters in 10 years, losing four times at that stage.  Her draw does not look likely to cause any trepidation early on.  Either Pavlyuchenkova (seeded 19) or Roberta Vinci (15) would have to have a very good day to threaten her in the fourth round, with A-Pavs the more likely – with that big game of hers.

Caroline Wozniacki (10) and Laura Robson play a stand-out first rounder in the opposing eighth.  The former #1 has been slumping badly this spring.  Although she made the final in Indian Wells (to Sharapova), she has lost 5 straight matches on clay.  Robson on the other hand, has been on the ascendance and has achieved a career-high rank of 35, narrowly missing a seeding.  It should be a battle and I hedge towards Robson. 

Another interesting first rounder is between Angelique Kerber (8) and Mona Barthel.  Barthel is clearly talented and we keep waiting for her, Gulbis-like, to break out.  Also here is Svetlana Kuznetsova opening against Makarova (22).  The 2009 champion is unpredictable and a deep run is always possible.  She’s shown signs of life this year but not enough to put her in the conversation.  Regardless, the most likely winner of this section is Kerber.

SWilliams d. Kerber

Second Quarter

Agnieszka Radwanska (4) heads this section.  She started the year on a 13 match win streak, but has fizzled a little since.  She has been especially dismal on clay 1-2, and has never been past 4R here.  This opens up her eighth considerably. 

Venus Williams (30) has been to the QF or better 5 times and has a good chance to usurp A-Rad’s spot in the third round.  That could pit her against a resurgent Ana Ivanovic (14) in round 4.  Ivanovic has not quite found the form that took her to the title here in 2008, but a strong showing here could restore a lot of confidence. 

The other half has Sara Errani (5) as the highest seed.  Errani has impressed me with her solid play over the last year and her runner-up showing at last year’s tournament is not nearly so surprising now has it seemed then.

The first-rounder between Simona Halep (SF in Rome) and Carla Suarez Navarro should be high quality.  The winner could potentially meet Nadia Petrova (11), always formidable on clay, or Madison Keys in 3R.  The 18-year old Keys is a player I’m watching closely this year.

Errani d. Ivanovic

Third Quarter

The name looming largest in this section is third seed and recently deposed #1, Victoria Azarenka.  She’s only lost twice this year, although the shellacking she took at Serena’s hands in the Rome final, 1 and 3, shows a large gap to the current #1 – at least on clay.  She looks to have a fairly clear trip to the quarters.

The other eighth is topped by former champion Li Na (6).  Li is unpredictable.  She can be devastatingly good when she’s on – one of the few players that could challenge an in-form Serena or make Sharapova look ordinary.  Li has a reasonably tough opener in Annabel Medina Garrigues, a solid clay player who could exploit a streaky opponent.  The highly gifted Yaroslava Shvedova (27) could also prove problematic in the third round.

If it comes down to an Azarenka-Li quarter-final, Li is certainly capable of blasting her way through.  But overall, Azarenka, despite never making it past the quarters here, seems the more reliable pick.

Azarenka d. Li

Fourth Quarter

The bottom half of this quarter looks to be relatively smooth sailing for Maria Sharapova (2).  Seeds Paszek (28), Stephens (17), and Cibulkova (16) should not trouble her.  Cibulkova did make the semis here in 2009 but has not posted much for results this spring.

Sloane Stephens is a bit of a wild card.  She’s been in a predictable slump since her breakthrough Serena-defeating semi run in Australia.  I’m not sure she’s ready to surprise us again.  Even a match or two won would help to restore confidence at this point and that’s probably all we can ask.

The other half is more interesting.  Petra Kvitova (7) and Samantha Stosur (9) bracket it with a surging Jelena Jankovic (18) in the middle.  Pretty much anything is possible from Kvitova – brilliant shots, clunkers, anguish – and that’s all in one point.  The roller coaster is fun to ride, hopefully the ride lasts for a few rounds.  Three-time semi-finalist Stosur is probably the safe pick to make the quarters, but Jankovic in 3R could prove testy.

Maybe last year’s Wimbledon sensation Camila Giorgi (won 6 matches from qualifying to make the fourth round) will prove that was not a fluke.

Sharapova d. Stosur

Semis

I sincerely expect that only maybe 2 of my four picks for the semis will make it that far, but proceeding heedlessly...

Errani simply doesn’t have the weapons to challenge Serena.  If Serena makes it this far she will have had her head on straight and her game firing.

SWilliams d. Errani

A contest between Sharapova and Azarenka could be very interesting for determining who is the real #2...  I’d say there’s a reasonable chance Azarenka won’t make the semis, having run into a patchy stretch in her own play, or withdrawing in a fit of injury or pique.  If she does make it to the semis, she’ll be ready to fight.

Sharapova has the better clay court pedigree with the French title and two Italians under her belt (not to mention two in Stuttgart).  But Azarenka may be the tougher player with more weapons and more variety in her game.  It’s probably more likely that Sharapova gets further, but if they face off I’d put my money on Azarenka.

Azarenka d. Sharapova

Final

Azarenka should fight gamely but it’s not likely to be enough.

SWilliams d. Azarenka

If Serena can claim her second Roland Garros crown she becomes one of only five women to win all the majors at least twice, joining Navratilova and Evert (at least two of each), Court (three), and Graf (four).  She would be as old as Court, Evert, and Billie Jean King when they won their last major, but still two years younger than Navratilova, and one younger than Helen Wills.  

Her 16^th major will put her deep in the conversation for greatest ever.  Considering the depth in today’s tennis, and her continuing dominance of the field, she may well be deserving of that laurel.

Bookies

Average decimal odds from bookies.com on 25 May 2013

	Player	Odds
1	Williams, S	1.86
2	Sharapova, M	5.39
3	Azarenka, V	7.71
4	Li, N	13.19
5	Errani, S	23.38
6	Stosur, S	26.50
7	Kvitova, P	40.19
8	Ivanovic, A	69.75
9	Radwanska, A	69.81
10	Kuznetsova, S	95.94
11	Kerber, A	100.38
12	Jankovic, J	101.56
13	Kanepi, K	145.75
14	Wozniacki, C	150.38
15	Stephens, S	166.06
16	Pavlyuchenkova, A	169.44
17	Lisicki, S	190.75
18	Schiavone, F	197.50
19	Robson, L	199.00
20	Vinci, R	207.14
21	Shvedova, Y	211.43
22	Barthel, M	222.47
23	Cibulkova, D	223.40
24	Kirilenko, M	224.19