2013 US Open Men Predictions

2013 US Open – Men’s Preview

So who exactly is the favourite?  Nadal has been blitzing summer hard courts, Murray is the defending US champion and winner at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is usually regarded as the best hard-court player of this generation.  As I start writing I feel bewildered about how this US Open might turn out... vacillating like a Danish prince with a relative to avenge...

 What can we tease from the trends of the last few months?  Is Murray plump for a let down?  Have Nadal and his knees become invincible?  Is Federer finished?  Will Djokovic shed his malaise like a King of Rohan?  Has Samson Del Potro’s hair regrown enough to regain the strength of 2009?

Big Four (?)

Novak Djokovic

I think Djokovic is afraid of winning too much too soon.  In 2011 he proved he could win 43 matches in a row and 3 grand slams.  But then he finished the year weakly.  Since then he seems to be adopting energy-conservation mode as preparation for slams.  He’s not SO concerned about winning all the warm-up events.  Like at the French this year.  He started his prep early by proving that Nadal could be beaten in Monte Carlo, then, secure in that knowledge, he showed up on ‘sleep’ setting for Madrid and Rome. But he resurfaced at the French and was a net-touch whisker away from beating Nadal.

So I’m not reading much into his lax performances at Cincinnati and Canada.  I expect him to be at full bore for Queens, and by that I mean the New York suburb, not the club in London.  Novak intends to raise his level when he needs to do.

Despite this shaman-like insight into his personality J, I fear that his thinking is unwise.  In Paris he did not, at the end, have enough to beat Nadal.  Ditto against Murray in London.  Djokovic will doubtless play into form as the tournament progresses, but I suspect that he needs recent winning neuron-affirmation pathways, and more of them, to succeed.  He needs something to trigger that deep-gut play and self-belief required to win a really tough match against a flame-on Nadal or Murray.

Still, I’m not underestimating his immense ability and, predraw, the bookies have him at #1 in their picks.

Andy Murray

Murray has been to the final of the last 4 slams he’s played, winning two of them.  Are the floodgates of his talent finally opening to the grand slam realm? or had he merely stretched himself, thin as a worry, to assuage the relentless expectations of others?  If he’s shed the weight of the world, the British press, his hometown, and his mother by finally claiming El Dorado, can he now relax and play consistently champions-grade tennis? or is he going to go all Bartoli, or maybe Safin, on us and fade into an easier, sleeker future?

The fire may burn again in his girdle… but is it burning now? at this US Open?

Rafael Nadal

All in all it’s been a spectacular year for Nadal.  By winning percentage it’s his best start ever 53-3 (0.946).  It started inauspiciously with a pass at the Aussie Open and a final round loss at his first tournament in 7 months to Horacio Zeballos.  Then the magic started.  With 9 tournament victories already this year, he’s on pace to exceed the 11 of 2005.  And he hasn’t lost on hardcourts.  Granted he’s only played 3 tournaments on hard, but they’ve all been dense as flint Masters events and he’s decimated the field.

In 2010 Nadal became the first man to consecutively win Fre-Wim-USO since Rod Laver.  He’d found his thang…  But in 2011 Djokovic found HIS thang and the tide turned dramatically.  2012 looked to be developing into a titanic showdown  between the two – Nadal dominated the clay and threw down the gauntlet on hard in Australia, losing narrowly 7-5 in the 5^th.  But knees and/or Rosol interrupted and half a year evaporated. 

Now Nadal is back, and like 2010, on hard courts ‘that little country boy sure can play’ (to quote Johnny B. Goode).  Nadal is being aggressive, standing close to the baseline, playing his brilliant high percentage tennis backed with incredible speed and spin. 

So the stage is set.  The brilliant master of 2010 versus the djominator of 2011… then after some tempting play in 2012, courtus interruptus, enter Roger Federer and Andy Murray to fill the void.  Nadal has staked a claim to hard courts this year, can the apparent King of the last two years rise from the torpor atop his pile of points and battle his most worthy opponent?  Or will Nadal claim a vacated throne?

Roger Federer

Who?  Is there still a Big 4?  The body double masquerading as Federer has been doing an unconvincing job since mid June.  There were flashes of the former standard in Cincinnati.  But there, on what must be one of his favourite courts (5 wreaths), he still came up short against a Nadal that didn’t look to be actually playing that well.  Maybe he’s playing into form after the bad back and larger racquet fiasco – was it a whole 8 extra square inches?!?  I’d like to see the brilliant Federer again.  And we probably will.  But I doubt that he can sustain it.

Juan Martin Del Potro

Is it heresy to say Delpo has replaced Federer in the Big 4 – at least for this US Open??  Where is the big man at?

2009 US Open champeen – defeating Nadal and Federer… Can he do it again??  There have been encouraging signs this summer.  Nearly took out Djokovic at Wimby semis.  Won Washington over Isner…  almost, ALMOST in 2009 form – but not quite…

Can he beat all of the top 3 to claim the title?  Unlikely, but he may not have to with some luck.

The Draw (seeds in parenthesis)

First Quarter

Djokovic’s (1) draw starts out reasonably easy but gets tougher and tougher.  The stunning strokes of Grigor Dimitrov (25), who beat Novak on clay this year could come up in 3R, and the redoubtable Del Potro (6) is slated for the QF.  Del Potro could have his hands full in 4R with Tommy Haas (12) or Mikhail Youzhny (21) both proven and extremely dangerous, if not youthful, performers.  Lleyton Hewitt and Brian Baker should provide an entertaining first rounder.

I rate Del Potro the 4^th most dangerous player in the draw, so it is bad luck for both of them that he is in Novak’s quarter.  Whoever emerges would likely have to play Murray or Berdych in the semis:  both among the top 5 most dangerous players in this draw.  So that puts only one of the top 5, Nadal, in the other half.  It’s very tough for Novak, who could possibly have to beat Dimitrov – someone – Del Potro – Murray – Nadal for the title… a murderous run.

But it’s even worse for Del Potro who could face Haas followed by the world’s top 3 in succession.  This sequence makes it seem unlikely to me that the eventual winner will come from this quarter – just too tough.  But oblations to anyone that can pull it off.  Of course there could be upsets to brighten the path.

Djokovic d. Del Potro

Second Quarter

There’s nothing too frightening for Andy Murray (3) about his section, populated with seeds who excel mostly on clay, until the QF where he could face Tomas Berdych (5).  Berdych owns Murray 6-4 in the head to head.  Tomas may have a tougher time of it, however, if he runs into a resurgent Kevin Anderson (17), or Stanislas Wawrinka (9) who edges Berdych 6-5 heads-up, in the fourth round.

Berdych looked solid in defeating Murray in Cincinnati, and then losing a close one to Nadal.  The Czech showed he can play in New York last year when he took out Federer in the QF, before losing to Murray 6-7 in the fourth set.  So the rivalry between the two stars is close.  Berdych knows he can beat Murray, but I think Murray has the psychological edge on the big stage.

Murray d. Berdych

Third Quarter

Of the top 4 seeds I’d rate Ferrer (4) least likely to win the title, and of the 5-8 group, Gasquet (8), also the least.  So that makes it easy to call this the weakest quarter.  However, there are some interesting names here among the other seeds.  Tursunov (32) has been playing well this summer, as his return to seed-dom suggests.  Lopez (23) is effective on hard courts.  Gulbis (30) is capable of almost anything except consistency and a boring press conference.  Surely former top-tenner Tipsarevic (18) is due for some better play?? That leaves young guns Raonic (10) recent finalist in Canada, and Jerzy Janowicz (14) semi-finalist at Wimbledon, to round out the seeds in this section.

Ferrer has looked dreadful this summer.  He IS 31 years old.  But he’s too good and too tough, especially at USO, where he’s beaten Nadal, to go down lightly.

The snippets I’ve read from web-posters are variously calling for Ferrer, Raonic, Janowicz, or Gulbis to take the quarter.  In short, no one has a clue.  Nor do I.  I’ll stay pro forma and pick

Ferrer d. Gasquet

Fourth Quarter

The big news apparently is Federer (at 7!) and Nadal (2) in the same quarter.  Yawn.  It’s like the 3^rd time this year at least…  Considering these are two of the all-time greats, every meeting should be charged with drama… but the sad truth is that lately Nadal is whipping Federer like a Roman slave.

Will they even both make it to a QF meeting?  They were slated for one at Wim-pocalypse but were gone by the second round.  Federer especially looks vulnerable.  His match record is 6-4 since Halle in June with losses to two players outside the top 100.  It’s not a given that he’ll get by Querrey (26) in 3R, and the talented Nishikori (11) as a potential fourth rounder is probably at his best on hard.  And then Nadal.

For his part, Nadal’s draw is a little easier.  Granted there’s eager Vasek Pospisil in 2R, and Verdasco (27) or Davydenko (who is 6-5 vs Nadal) in the third.  The fourth could present John Isner (13) who’s been hotter than lightning this summer.  But I expect Nadal to crush them all.

If the matchup with Federer materializes, I would love to see Roger channel 2005, just to see how a full-flight Federer would match up with the new and improved Nadal.  Maybe we’ll get glimpses.

Nadal d. Federer

Semi-finals

Given the patchy form of the Wimbledon finalists since their last encounter, I’m tempted to pencil Del Potro and Berdych into these slots.  Then I’d give Del Potro the nod for the final.  But it’s hard to pick against the finalists of the last 3 non-clay slams.

I think Murray-Djokovic is a total toss up.  It’s Novak’s turn, plus he leads Murray 9-6 on hard, including the last 3.  But he really looked like Murray’s chattel in the Wimbledon final.  Psychologically, I think Djokovic will be hungrier.  I’m uncertain how much the idea of defending the title motivates Murray, but it might be a factor – to prove Rafter-like, that he’s not a one-hit wonder.   I think the fierceness he’s displayed at the Olympics, the US Open, and then Wimbledon takes more energy, is more of a forced high, than the pure concentration Novak needs to win.

Djokovic d. Murray

Ummm…

Nadal d. Ferrer

Final

Nadal and Djokovic.  Expert opinion is split.  The Nadal side seems somewhat larger – leading 7 votes to 4.  The bookies, who use real money to make their prediction must be taken very seriously.  Before the draw was released they were consistently on the side of Djokovic, but by a small margin.  The verdict is no longer unanimous among them and with the draw out, Nadal now enjoys an infinitesimal lead in the odds.

But to my mind Nadal has been playing untouchably this summer.  His depth of shot, shot selection, and reliance on high percentage play, deep penetrating topspin, combined with his innate talents, and ferocious competitiveness make him a clear favourite.

Nadal d. Djokovic

Experts

Many experts haven’t weighed in yet, but at time of writing this is what we’ve got:

Nadal	(7 votes)	Greg Garber (ESPN), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Ray Bowers (Tennis Server), Peter Bodo (Tennis), Bruce Jenkins (Sports Illustrated), Andrew Lawrence (Sports Illustrated), Courtney Nguyen (Sports Illustrated)
Djokovic	(4 votes)	Steve Tignor (Tennis), Ed McGrogan (Tennis), bookies.com, Richard Deitsch (Sports Illustrated)

Bookies

Average of decimal odds for all bookies reporting at bookies.com on 21 Aug 2013:

1	Djokovic, N	2.81
2	Nadal, R	3.59
3	Murray, A	3.69
4	Del Potro, JM	10.76
5	Federer, R	13.48
6	Berdych, T	39.43
7	Isner, J	65.05
8	Ferrer, D	67.86
9	Janowicz, J	71.62
10	Raonic, M	109.00
11	Gulbis, E	157.42
12	Dimitrov, G	160.67
13	Haas, T	184.58
14	Wawrinka, S	185.62
15	Tomic, B	202.76
16	Gasquet, R	253.00
17	Nishikori, K	258.71
18	Cilic, M	278.31
19	Verdasco, F	349.20
20	Dolgopolov, A	350.10
21	Tipsarevic, J	393.85
22	Monfils, G	397.20
23	Querrey, S	397.22
24	Baghdatis, M	400.00

Average on 23 Aug 2013-08-23

1	Nadal, R	2.94
2	Djokovic, N	3.03
3	Murray, A	4.48
4	Del Potro, JM	13.03
5	Federer, R	13.19
6	Berdych, T	40.44
7	Ferrer, D	67.44
8	Janowicz, J	67.67
9	Isner, J	69.11
10	Raonic, M	90.06