2013 US Open
Women’s Preview – 23 Aug 2013
Serena Williams
So Serena has lost only 4 times in the last
12 months (72-4), and only twice in the last 6 months. Who could possibly choose against her on home
turf at the US Open? Plus she is
defending champion. She’s been chewing
up opponents in dominating fashion.
But just when you think she’s done flossing
opponents out of her teeth, she’ll lose to a world #24 at Wimbledon (Lisicki),
or a #25 at the Australian (Stephens)... both losses, notably, at the
slams. She’s also lost twice to Victoria
Azarenka (Doha, Cincy). So the field has
to have a glimmer of hope. Serena is not
exactly young anymore. She’s the oldest
woman to be ranked #1 on the computer, and the losses, especially to Lisicki,
made her look uncertain, tentative, unsure of her skills, and in short,
old. All the more remarkable then that
she’s still winning so much.
She lost at Cincinnati last year and went
on to win the US Open. Who realistically
will stand in the way of her 5th US Open title, and becoming the
first woman to win at least 5 each at the Australian, Wimbledon, and USO?
Victoria Azarenka
The prime candidate to stop Serena has to
be Azarenka. She’s recorded 2 wins over
Serena this year. Going backwards, the
last woman to record 2 wins over Serena was Stosur, 2011, 2010. Azarenka beat Serena at Cincy last week and
that has to feel good for Victoria.
It was a good win, too. Serena came out playing error-free tennis in
the first set, finding the corners and playing with power, 6-2 Serena. In the second set Victoria dug in and started
hitting with some pace of her own. At
the same time, Serena’s error count was on the rise, 6-2 Azarenka. The third set was more even and went to a
tiebreak. Throughout the set Serena
appeared almost completely placid. TV
commentators said it looked like she didn’t care or was putting out no
energy. I read it differently. I thought she was making a deliberate attempt
to stay calm emotionally, because she certainly put out a lot of effort during
the point and even offered the occasional shout when hitting a winner, even if
her overall demeanour seemed almost soporific.
But Victoria had really raised her level and was constructing beautiful
points, hitting powerfully and moving Serena around. She took the tiebreaker playing high quality
ball.
Does this mean Victoria will beat Serena at
the USO if they both make the final? It
has to be a possibility... but you’ve got to think Serena will be tougher when
the stakes are higher. On the other
hand, Serena has betrayed nerves in three of the last six slams. The question is, will that matter? Is Azarenka playing well enough to beat an
in-form Serena? In Cincy it looked like
she was.
Even if Azarenka wins the tournament and
Serena doesn’t play, Serena has amassed enough points to hang on to #1. Victoria has made at least the final of the
last 3 hard court slams, and is a good bet to continue that streak.
Maria Sharapova
Oh Sugar!
Sharapova has withdrawn from the Open with a shoulder injury. That might explain why she lost 3 of her last
4 matches and hasn’t won a match since June.
If her slump can be explained by physical ailments there’s less of her
head to worry about, but, increasingly, the question arises, can she hang with
the big girls?
She’s lost 13 times in a row to Serena.
Last year she was only 2-4 against Azarenka, but has won both their last two
encounters. But Maria hasn’t won on
outdoor hardcourts against Vika since 2009, falling the last 6 times to her. She’s struggled with big hitters that show up
her relative lack of mobility, but if she can get dictating, she can be lethal. Hopefully she comes back to us soon.
Other Belles of the Ball
Agnieszka Radwanska thought she had a
golden opportunity at Wimbledon – into the semis with the big 3 out of the way,
but Lisicki had other ideas. Aggie has
not made SF at a slam other than twice at Wimbledon, but she’s shown signs of
improvement on North American hardcourts this year, making SF at both Canada
and Miami. Her USO record is not
particularly promising, making 4R thrice but never more. I’ll plug for her to make QF this year.
Li Na, like Serena is 31 years old.
She’s still capable of great tennis, especially on hardcourts, as her
run to the final in Australia demonstrated.
She won 13 sets in a row there, but couldn’t muster the last one. She made semis at both Canada and Cincy and
seems to be rounding nicely into form for a good push at the Open. She made QF only once (2009) so I want to
expect no more from her this time.
Marion Bartoli would be high on
everyone’s watch list, fresh off her Wimbledon victory, and at age 28, with
several good years left. Unfortunately,
she’s just announced her retirement from the game. After summiting the apex of the sport at
Wimbledon, and with limited likelihood of repeating, she is wise, perhaps, to
bask in the satisfaction and glory of that achievement. I wish her well.
Samantha Stosur shocked the world in
2011 by beating Serena in the US Open final, just the third tournament title of
her career. Now she’s just claimed her 4th,
taking out Azarenka in the final of Carlsbad.
This may indicate a return to form and anyone facing her should be as
wary as a wildebeest crossing a river.
Though I doubt she will win another slam, she has made two finals so SF
might not be unreasonable this year. She’s
not a consistent threat to the top 3 but, if Wimblegeddon repeats, anything is
possible.
Petra Kvitova seems a shade of her
former self. She gets more skittish with
each passing slam. After her breakout
Wimby win in 2011, she posted SF-SF-QF-4R in the 2012 slams. This year she’s knocked that back to
2R-3R-QF, and is at only 9 in the world.
She seems unable to harness her talent.
She’s shown no real sign of improvement and I expect another early loss.
Sloane Stephens has been patchy in
the smaller tournaments but over-performs at the slams. Hopefully this indicates a deep talent that
is just latent in blossoming. After her
breakout SF finish and victory over Serena in Australia, she made 4R at the
French and QF at Wimbledon. That’s about
where I’d expect her to end up again.
She did just oust Sharapova from Cincinnati, which may indicate a readiness
to break through to another level – maybe top 10 - but I don’t really feel she
is mentally prepared to go all the way at a slam.
Caroline Wozniacki has just risen to
8 in the rankings on the back of a QF run in Cincy – she’s seems the queen of
taking advantage of weakness in the rankings – her rise was precipitated by the
weaker showings of Kerber and Kvitova whom she surpassed. What can’t be denied is that while Caroline
bombed at the USO last year going out in the first round, before that she had
been to at least the SF three straight times.
If she is rounding into form, it’s at one of her most successful
tournaments so handle with care.
Sara Errani: it is perhaps block-headed to slot Errani so
low in my prognostications. She
currently holds down the #5 slot on the computer and made semis at USO last
year. But she has not matched the
heights she attained last year. If the
draw breaks well, she can go reasonably deep, but I simply do not think she is
capable of the title – I don’t see enough game there. But she IS extremely tenacious and could pull
an upset along the way.
Jelena Jankovic made #1 in the
world and the final at the US Open in 2008, losing a close one to Serena. Then she began a slow decline which she is
only now, 5 years later, showing signs of halting. She’s back to 11 in the rankings after a SF
in Cincy and QF at the French. She’s
playing tough and should be good to live up to her seeding, maybe better. Ditto Roberta Vinci.
Ladies in Waiting
There are a few other players I’ll be
keeping my eyes on… WTA rank in (parenthesis
).
Angelique Kerber has been coming down
to earth after a stellar 2012. She’s
still ranked 10 in the world, but if she doesn’t defend 4R points at USO will
probably drop lower. On the other hand,
the 2011 Open was the site of her initial break-out so maybe she has another
deep run in store. I don’t expect it.
Ana Ivanovic (15) continues to founder despite occasional signs of life. Her tenure at #1 seems a fairy tale. Despite a run to the final at Wimbledon,
Sabine Lisicki (18) has given no indication that she can do it anywhere else. Which Dominika Cibulkova (19) will we get
at this year’s Open? The one who took
out Radwanska in the Stanford final or the one who lost to #102 in the first
round of Cincinnati? Sorana Cirstea (21) is reaching mid-career at age 23 and made the Toronto final,
losing to Serena. QF would be an
excellent showing for her. Svetlana Kuznetsova (29) is still
only 28. The 2004 champion has too much
talent to be ignored and has shown signs of a pulse in the slams this year, but
little elsewhere. QF would be
surprising.
Magdalena Rybarikova (31) may be
having a career year. QF in Toronto and
a win in Washington put her in the conversation. She may rise to the 4R, depending on her
draw. Laura Robson (32) is still a teen
and showed promise last year at USO, taking out Clijsters and Li. She has shown little to raise expectation
this summer, but I keep expecting a breakout performance from one so obviously
talented. Kristina Mladenovic (37) catches me
off guard with her ranking. Still only
20, she continues to improve and should be threatening the top 20 soon.
Ditto Madison Keys (40) and Elina Svitolina (44) who are only
18 years old. Keys has yet to show her
mettle on the big stage… maybe this will be her debut. There’s no one younger ranked above her. Is she a legitimate ‘talent’ or just an
earlier bloomer? Annika Beck (49) and Monica Puig (50) are both 19 and
worthy of tracking. Likewise Eugenie Bouchard (57) and Garbine Muguruza (62). Venus Williams (60) is much too talented to be ignored. Who knows how much longer we will get to
enjoy her. If she makes 3R she will do
well.
Donna Vekic (65) is the youngest
player in the top 100 at 17. Lauren Davis (70), only 19, had the unique task of beating Kuznetsova twice in
Toronto this year, once in qualifying and once in the main draw. At 5’2” she may struggle to make an impact on
the big stage. Caroline Garcia (76), age 19, may
have more potential. Lastly, Ashleigh Barty is 17 and ranked
170. She’s been to two slam doubles
finals this year at Australia and Wimbledon.
The Draw (seeds in parenthesis)
First Quarter
Serena (1) could get recently hot
Rybarikova (29) in 3R and ever-dangerous Sloane Stephens (15) in the
fourth. I think Serena will want revenge
for Australia and will be in crushing form.
Venus (u) opens against Wimbledon semi-finalist ‘never-again’ Flipkens
(12) in 1R in a wide open eighth of the draw headlined by slumping Angelique
Kerber (8). We could very well see
Eugenie Bouchard or Kaia Kanepi (25) across from Serena in the QF.
SWilliams d. Bouchard
Second Quarter
An entertaining section… all 8 seeds here
can do some damage. ARadwanska (3 –
thank-you Maria) would try to outfox the heavy-hitting Pavlyuchenkova (32) in
3R. Next, Makarova (24) and Lisicki (16)
can have a talent war to see who would face the winner. Third round in the next eighth could bring up
Jankovic (9) and Cirstea (19) both riding hot streaks, and at the bottom hyper-talented
teen Laura Robson (30) against her victim last year, Li Na (5). Of course Jankovic has to face Madison Keys
first – both of whom I thought could go deep – I’ll pick JJ.
This little nest of fireworks should
produce some excellent first and early second week viewing, but at the end of
the day I expect the top 2 seeds to come through.
Li d. ARadwanska
Third Quarter
From hot to utterly tepid… I’ll need to set my alarm to make it through
this snooze fest. None of the players
here are a pre-draw pick for SF, but one of them WILL make it that far. Errani (4) has looked lukewarm this summer
but did make SF last year. Wozniacki (6 – usurping Bartoli) is predictably waking
up at New Haven this week: 4-time
champion there. Kuznetsova (27) has been
floundering between decent slam performances and little else. Halep (21) was hot-ish not SO long ago… or
maybe the little engine that could Vinci (10) will stage another QF with
compatriot Errani like last year??
Errani d. Wozniacki
Fourth Quarter
Seeing Azarenka’s (2) name at the bottom of
the draw feels like a nice solid anchor in this fortune telling game. But wouldn’t you know it, my third favourite
pick for the title, Stosur (11) is also here.
So I have to pick, and early, between them.
Alright contestants our theme for Double
Jeopardy is ‘unpredictability’… Alex,
I’ll take Kvitova for 200. The #7
seed?? Very rich… Instead, I’ll take Stosur over Barthel (28)
in that eighth. Svitolina vs. Cibulkova
(17) could be entertaining in round one, and if she makes it to 4R, Cibu the
giant-killer has a chance against Azarenka.
Azarenka d. Stosur
Semi-finals
I actually doubt that Li will get this far,
but don’t like the other options better.
If she does face Serena, she could very well send the great American
hope home, but all things considered, Serena is more likely to survive this
far.
SWilliams d. Li
Azarenka just looked way too good in
Cincinnati.
Azarenka d. Errani
Final
After 9 straight wins by Serena, Victoria
has won 2 of the last 3 in their head-to-head.
After a see-sawing and very entertaining battle in Cincinnati, we know
that, on hard courts, they are very close.
I think Azarenka still feel she’s got something to prove. Serena will come out fierce, but I see fear
in the American’s eyes.
Azarenka d. SWilliams
Experts
Most experts haven’t weighed in yet, but at
time of writing the balance is tipped heavily
toward Serena:
|
SWilliams
|
(8 votes)
|
Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Jane McManus
(ESPN), Ray Bowers (Tennis Server), bookies.com, Ed
McGrogan (Tennis), Peter Bodo (Tennis),
Andrew
Lawrence (Sports Illustrated), Courtney Nguyen (Sports
Illustrated)
|
|
Azarenka
|
(2 votes)
|
Steve Tignor (Tennis), Richard Deitsch (Sports
Illustrated)
|
|
Stephens
|
(1 vote)
|
Bruce Jenkins (Sports Illustrated)
|
Bookies
Average of decimal odds for all bookies
reporting at bookies.com on 21 Aug 2013:
|
1
|
Williams, S
|
1.76
|
|
2
|
Azarenka, V
|
4.86
|
|
3
|
Sharapova, M
|
9.78
|
|
4
|
Li, N
|
20.38
|
|
5
|
Radwanska, A
|
21.73
|
|
6
|
Kvitova, P
|
24.20
|
|
7
|
Stosur, S
|
25.35
|
|
8
|
Stephens, S
|
38.26
|
|
9
|
Lisicki, S
|
46.80
|
|
10
|
Kerber, A
|
61.15
|
|
11
|
Wozniacki, C
|
78.45
|
|
12
|
Ivanovic, A
|
92.05
|
|
13
|
Robson, L
|
103.55
|
|
14
|
Jankovic, J
|
129.20
|
|
15
|
Kuznetsova, S
|
130.45
|
|
16
|
Cirstea, S
|
134.33
|
|
17
|
Petkovic, A
|
139.20
|
|
18
|
Errani, S
|
143.80
|
|
19
|
Halep, S
|
161.53
|
|
20
|
Keys, M
|
162.11
|
|
21
|
Kirilenko, M
|
162.95
|
|
22
|
Barthel, M
|
172.05
|
|
23
|
Williams, V
|
177.68
|
|
24
|
Cibulkova, D
|
188.61
|
|
25
|
Hampton, J
|
199.00
|
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