US Open Men’s Preview 2014
Charles Friesen
Novak Djokovic is playing terribly. Rafal Nadal is injured… so is Juan Martin Del
Potro. Andy Roddick is retired. That leaves Roger Federer and Andy Murray as
the only former USO winners in the last 12 years left standing. Last week, Federer beat Murray in Cincinnati,
site of Murray’s first triumph over the Fed, to level their series at 11 wins
each. So is Federer the US Open
favourite? The bookies are still giving
the nod to Djokovic by a sizable margin. Are they right to?
Tallying slam matches won this year, the leaders are a
familiar foursome:
Djokovic
|
17
|
Nadal
|
16
|
Federer
|
14
|
Murray
|
13
|
Berdych, Raonic, Wawrinka
|
11
|
Anderson, Dimitrov, Ferrer, Tsonga
|
9
|
Even Wawrinka, winner in Australia, is relegated to no
better than 5th. With Nadal
out, Djokovic in a questionable space, and Federer old, will we be treated to a
rare slam break through by the second tier?
First Quarter
Novak Djokovic has looked distracted since his gutty, iron
win over Federer in the Wimbledon final.
Granted he’s gotten married and has a child on the way. But I think he’s in a post-Wimbledon
hangover. He’s displayed post-win lows
in the past. After concentrating ferociously
through most of 2011 to possess the Australian, Wimbledon, and US Open crowns,
Djokovic finally took his foot off the pedal and coasted through a 6-4 (w-l)
post-summer. Then in 2012 and 2013, he
copped the Australian title each year, but then coasted again and looked like a
weak #1, surrendering the leadership to Nadal in 2013. This year he did not have the AO title to
lean back on, and he steadily raised his game to claim Wimbledon from a
determined Federer. But with that hurdle
crossed, a let down is expectable. Will
he right the ship for the US Open?
The bookies think so.
He’s still their favourite at 2.4 odds over Federer at 5.0. Djokovic has a natural hard court game and
has been to 5 of the last 7 USO finals, including the last 4. So a good USO showing is to be expected. But surprisingly, he’s only won one title in
those 5 finals.
Novak made R16 (3rd round) at both Toronto and
Cincinnati – not encouraging, but the same rounds that Andy Murray made when he
won the Open in 2012. The difference
perhaps is that Murray also won the Olympics that year, a stronger
post-Wimbledon showing than Novak’s.
Novak has the talent and the game and the time to find his
mojo for the US Open. He will face a few
lower ranked opponents to ease into the tournament, and he has best of 5 sets
to work through the glitches, to remember what winning takes.
It will be hard to pick against him, but I think he will
tough out a few matches and then get into a tight one against a zoning
opponent. Will he have the will to
fight? I’m thinking he could easily go
down, although with his draw, it’s hard to say who the nemesis will be. His half of the top quarter is not too
frightening. John Isner (13) is a
potential fourth round opponent. Will
Isner’s foot injury keep him out of contention?
Nothing very alarming here for Novak.
The lower portion features the redoubtable Andy Murray (8)
whose trickier draw includes Robin Haase in 1R, Fernando Verdasco (31)
potentially in 3R, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9) in the fourth. Tsonga took a decimating run through Toronto
claiming scalps from Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov, and Federer en route to the
title. In a slam over best of five, I’d
pick Murray as the likely foe of Djokovic in the quarters – a rematch of the
2012 final. Murray has not won a
tournament since Wimbledon last year, and has never seemed to fully regain form
since last year’s back surgery.
By the odds, Djokovic is the clear favourite, although both
Murray and Tsonga could take him out.
Djokovic d. Murray
Second Quarter
Like the women’s draw, the middle quarters of this US Open
look to provide a lot more opportunity to lower ranked players. One beneficiary could be 19 year old Nick
Kyrgios whose surprise run to the Wimbledon quarters included taking out
Nadal. Kyrgios opens with the
inconsistent Mikhail Youzhny who has been to the semis here twice before and
made QF last year. Should Nick survive
that, he could face Tommy Robredo (16) in 3R who has been to the 4R here an
incredible 8 times, making QF for the first time last year.
I’ll expect Robredo to come through to face Wawrinka (3) in
4R. Wawrinka backed up last year’s SF
showing in New York with a title at the Australian in January. Stan is not the most consistent player, but seems
to like Queens hard court and should be good to make the QF. His most likely opponent there is probably
Milos Raonic (5) who is finally living up to the hype with his best year to
date. Raonic made Wimbledon semis and
won the summer US Open series of tournaments even though he scored less points
than Federer, but by dint of playing in at least three tournaments (Federer
played two), Raonic’s points were doubled.
Raonic is seeded to meet Nishikori (10) in 4R, but Nishikori
has looked a shell of his spring incarnation and questions about his health are
not likely to be answered positively at this year’s USO. Raonic has looked very sharp this summer,
taking the title in Washington and making semis in Cincinnati.
Raonic d. Wawrinka
Third Quarter
The third quarter is led by David Ferrer (4) and Tomas
Berdych (6). The ‘little beast’ seemed
to be refinding hard court prowess with a finalist showing in Cincinnati. Despite recent good results by Marin Cilic
(14), Kevin Anderson (18), and even Jerzy Janowicz (u), Ferrer should power
through to the quarters.
Berdych has won only two matches since Wimbledon. That may be sufficient for him to remember
enough hard court tennis to ease his way through the first rounds, but it is
hardly a positive omen. He could be in
for a battle in the first round against feisty 2001 champ Lleyton Hewitt. Berdych is then seeded to meet Santiago
Giraldo (27) in 3R and Ernests Gulbis (11) or Feliciano Lopez (19) in the
fourth. Any of those seeds could be
dangerous, but they are all about equally likely to roll over and play dead.
It couldn’t be a much better draw for Berdych, but he’ll
need to improve quickly to take advantage of it.
Ferrer d. Berdych
Fourth Quarter
With Nadal out, Federer eases into the #2 slot and the
benefits that entails. It hasn’t saved
him from a potential matchup with Dimitrov (7) in the quarters, but it will
hold off Ferrer until at least the semis, and Djokovic until the final. With the way he’s been playing this summer,
it’s hard to imagine Federer losing before the quarters. In fact, based on form, he’s arguably the
favourite for the whole tournament.
Since Wimbledon, only a streaking Tsonga has checked the win column against
him.
But some of his wins did not look very convincing. Of his 5 match wins in Cincinnati, only the
one against Raonic in the semis looked emphatic. The others were scratchy, and the loss to
Tsonga in Toronto was reasonably surprising.
But the most significant thing perhaps is that he did win those
matches. That will give him
confidence. If he doesn’t get sloppy,
confidence will make his job easier and will scare the field.
With seeds Karlovic (25), Fognini (15), and Bautista-Agut
(17) in his section, his run to the quarters looks entirely manageable. The other half looks trickier. Dimitrov, Monfils (20), and Gasquet (12) are
all dangerous. Gasquet made the semis
here last year, but has struggled since and descended to a ranking of 14. He’ll likely go lower when his USO points
come off if he doesn’t recapture last year’s love of these hard courts. Meanwhile, Monfils is terminally
inconsistent.
Dimitrov has looked stellar all year and is in 7th
slot in the yearly points race.
Amazingly, he has yet to win a match at Flushing Meadows in 3 attempts,
but I’m betting that will all change this year.
He really is the favourite in his section. Should he face Federer in the quarters, he is
eminently capable of the upset. Federer
will be aware of this and should be on high alert. I’ll expect crushing form from an energized
Federer.
Federer d. Dimitrov
Semis
Despite my dire predictions for Djokovic at the start of
this piece, he is still the most likely to come through his loaded
quarter. The prospect of not having to
face Nadal should be bracing. I
certainly think it is possible Djokovic could lose before the semis, but he
really has the more weapons to work with than any of his opponents. Against Raonic he should win without too much
difficulty. His game is
multi-dimensional and Raonic’s is not.
Djokovic d. Raonic
Federer owns 16 straight wins over Ferrer. Ferrer is playing well and can wear down
Federer, especially if Federer has an off day.
But Federer is moving beautifully this summer.
Federer d. Ferrer
Final
Looking at the field without the draw, I think the most
likely winners this year are former slam champs Federer, Djokovic, Murray, and
Wawrinka, along with Raonic, Dimitrov, and Ferrer. A win by any of these 7 would not be
shocking. A win by anyone else
would. Add to this a couple of really
dangerous players, Tsonga and Berdych, and I think that sums up the main
contenders.
I’m hesitant to pick Federer as the eventual winner because
he seems capable of going so far off, at this advanced age of his. Djokovic is the default pick, but something
seems to be missing in his incredible game this summer. Perhaps it is desire. Federer never lacks that.
Federer d. Djokovic
Bookies
18-Aug-2014
|
Betfair
|
|
1
|
Djokovic
|
2.4
|
2
|
Federer
|
5.0
|
3
|
Murray
|
6.8
|
4
|
Wawrinka
|
20
|
5
|
Dimitrov
|
23
|
6
|
Tsonga
|
28
|
7
|
Raonic
|
32
|
8
|
Kyrgios
|
80
|
9
|
Berdych
|
85
|
10
|
Ferrer
|
90
|
11
|
Gulbis
|
120
|
12
|
Isner
|
150
|
13
|
Cilic
|
170
|
14
|
Nishikori
|
180
|
15
|
Monfils
|
370
|
16
|
Robredo
|
400
|
17
|
Dolgopolov
|
420
|
18
|
Gasquet
|
500
|
19
|
Tomic
|
510
|
20
|
Anderson
|
520
|
21
|
Janowicz
|
550
|
22
|
Pospisil
|
610
|
23
|
FLopez
|
650
|
24
|
Simon
|
750
|
25
|
Bautista Agut
|
810
|
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