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US Open Men’s Preview 2014

US Open Men’s Preview 2014

Charles Friesen

Novak Djokovic is playing terribly.  Rafal Nadal is injured… so is Juan Martin Del Potro.  Andy Roddick is retired.  That leaves Roger Federer and Andy Murray as the only former USO winners in the last 12 years left standing.  Last week, Federer beat Murray in Cincinnati, site of Murray’s first triumph over the Fed, to level their series at 11 wins each.  So is Federer the US Open favourite?  The bookies are still giving the nod to Djokovic by a sizable margin.  Are they right to?

Tallying slam matches won this year, the leaders are a familiar foursome:

Djokovic
17
Nadal
16
Federer
14
Murray
13
Berdych, Raonic, Wawrinka
11
Anderson, Dimitrov, Ferrer, Tsonga
9

Even Wawrinka, winner in Australia, is relegated to no better than 5th.  With Nadal out, Djokovic in a questionable space, and Federer old, will we be treated to a rare slam break through by the second tier?

First Quarter

Novak Djokovic has looked distracted since his gutty, iron win over Federer in the Wimbledon final.  Granted he’s gotten married and has a child on the way.  But I think he’s in a post-Wimbledon hangover.  He’s displayed post-win lows in the past.  After concentrating ferociously through most of 2011 to possess the Australian, Wimbledon, and US Open crowns, Djokovic finally took his foot off the pedal and coasted through a 6-4 (w-l) post-summer.  Then in 2012 and 2013, he copped the Australian title each year, but then coasted again and looked like a weak #1, surrendering the leadership to Nadal in 2013.  This year he did not have the AO title to lean back on, and he steadily raised his game to claim Wimbledon from a determined Federer.  But with that hurdle crossed, a let down is expectable.  Will he right the ship for the US Open?

The bookies think so.  He’s still their favourite at 2.4 odds over Federer at 5.0.  Djokovic has a natural hard court game and has been to 5 of the last 7 USO finals, including the last 4.  So a good USO showing is to be expected.  But surprisingly, he’s only won one title in those 5 finals.

Novak made R16 (3rd round) at both Toronto and Cincinnati – not encouraging, but the same rounds that Andy Murray made when he won the Open in 2012.  The difference perhaps is that Murray also won the Olympics that year, a stronger post-Wimbledon showing than Novak’s.

Novak has the talent and the game and the time to find his mojo for the US Open.  He will face a few lower ranked opponents to ease into the tournament, and he has best of 5 sets to work through the glitches, to remember what winning takes.

It will be hard to pick against him, but I think he will tough out a few matches and then get into a tight one against a zoning opponent.  Will he have the will to fight?  I’m thinking he could easily go down, although with his draw, it’s hard to say who the nemesis will be.  His half of the top quarter is not too frightening.  John Isner (13) is a potential fourth round opponent.  Will Isner’s foot injury keep him out of contention?  Nothing very alarming here for Novak.

The lower portion features the redoubtable Andy Murray (8) whose trickier draw includes Robin Haase in 1R, Fernando Verdasco (31) potentially in 3R, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9) in the fourth.  Tsonga took a decimating run through Toronto claiming scalps from Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov, and Federer en route to the title.  In a slam over best of five, I’d pick Murray as the likely foe of Djokovic in the quarters – a rematch of the 2012 final.  Murray has not won a tournament since Wimbledon last year, and has never seemed to fully regain form since last year’s back surgery.

By the odds, Djokovic is the clear favourite, although both Murray and Tsonga could take him out.

Djokovic d. Murray

Second Quarter

Like the women’s draw, the middle quarters of this US Open look to provide a lot more opportunity to lower ranked players.  One beneficiary could be 19 year old Nick Kyrgios whose surprise run to the Wimbledon quarters included taking out Nadal.  Kyrgios opens with the inconsistent Mikhail Youzhny who has been to the semis here twice before and made QF last year.  Should Nick survive that, he could face Tommy Robredo (16) in 3R who has been to the 4R here an incredible 8 times, making QF for the first time last year. 

I’ll expect Robredo to come through to face Wawrinka (3) in 4R.  Wawrinka backed up last year’s SF showing in New York with a title at the Australian in January.  Stan is not the most consistent player, but seems to like Queens hard court and should be good to make the QF.  His most likely opponent there is probably Milos Raonic (5) who is finally living up to the hype with his best year to date.  Raonic made Wimbledon semis and won the summer US Open series of tournaments even though he scored less points than Federer, but by dint of playing in at least three tournaments (Federer played two), Raonic’s points were doubled.

Raonic is seeded to meet Nishikori (10) in 4R, but Nishikori has looked a shell of his spring incarnation and questions about his health are not likely to be answered positively at this year’s USO.  Raonic has looked very sharp this summer, taking the title in Washington and making semis in Cincinnati.

Raonic d. Wawrinka

Third Quarter

The third quarter is led by David Ferrer (4) and Tomas Berdych (6).  The ‘little beast’ seemed to be refinding hard court prowess with a finalist showing in Cincinnati.  Despite recent good results by Marin Cilic (14), Kevin Anderson (18), and even Jerzy Janowicz (u), Ferrer should power through to the quarters.

Berdych has won only two matches since Wimbledon.  That may be sufficient for him to remember enough hard court tennis to ease his way through the first rounds, but it is hardly a positive omen.  He could be in for a battle in the first round against feisty 2001 champ Lleyton Hewitt.  Berdych is then seeded to meet Santiago Giraldo (27) in 3R and Ernests Gulbis (11) or Feliciano Lopez (19) in the fourth.  Any of those seeds could be dangerous, but they are all about equally likely to roll over and play dead.

It couldn’t be a much better draw for Berdych, but he’ll need to improve quickly to take advantage of it.

Ferrer d. Berdych

Fourth Quarter

With Nadal out, Federer eases into the #2 slot and the benefits that entails.  It hasn’t saved him from a potential matchup with Dimitrov (7) in the quarters, but it will hold off Ferrer until at least the semis, and Djokovic until the final.  With the way he’s been playing this summer, it’s hard to imagine Federer losing before the quarters.  In fact, based on form, he’s arguably the favourite for the whole tournament.  Since Wimbledon, only a streaking Tsonga has checked the win column against him. 

But some of his wins did not look very convincing.  Of his 5 match wins in Cincinnati, only the one against Raonic in the semis looked emphatic.  The others were scratchy, and the loss to Tsonga in Toronto was reasonably surprising.  But the most significant thing perhaps is that he did win those matches.  That will give him confidence.  If he doesn’t get sloppy, confidence will make his job easier and will scare the field.

With seeds Karlovic (25), Fognini (15), and Bautista-Agut (17) in his section, his run to the quarters looks entirely manageable.  The other half looks trickier.  Dimitrov, Monfils (20), and Gasquet (12) are all dangerous.  Gasquet made the semis here last year, but has struggled since and descended to a ranking of 14.  He’ll likely go lower when his USO points come off if he doesn’t recapture last year’s love of these hard courts.  Meanwhile, Monfils is terminally inconsistent.

Dimitrov has looked stellar all year and is in 7th slot in the yearly points race.  Amazingly, he has yet to win a match at Flushing Meadows in 3 attempts, but I’m betting that will all change this year.  He really is the favourite in his section.  Should he face Federer in the quarters, he is eminently capable of the upset.  Federer will be aware of this and should be on high alert.  I’ll expect crushing form from an energized Federer.

Federer d. Dimitrov

Semis

Despite my dire predictions for Djokovic at the start of this piece, he is still the most likely to come through his loaded quarter.  The prospect of not having to face Nadal should be bracing.  I certainly think it is possible Djokovic could lose before the semis, but he really has the more weapons to work with than any of his opponents.  Against Raonic he should win without too much difficulty.  His game is multi-dimensional and Raonic’s is not.

Djokovic d. Raonic

Federer owns 16 straight wins over Ferrer.  Ferrer is playing well and can wear down Federer, especially if Federer has an off day.  But Federer is moving beautifully this summer.

Federer d. Ferrer

Final

Looking at the field without the draw, I think the most likely winners this year are former slam champs Federer, Djokovic, Murray, and Wawrinka, along with Raonic, Dimitrov, and Ferrer.  A win by any of these 7 would not be shocking.  A win by anyone else would.  Add to this a couple of really dangerous players, Tsonga and Berdych, and I think that sums up the main contenders.

I’m hesitant to pick Federer as the eventual winner because he seems capable of going so far off, at this advanced age of his.  Djokovic is the default pick, but something seems to be missing in his incredible game this summer.  Perhaps it is desire.  Federer never lacks that.

Federer d. Djokovic


Bookies

18-Aug-2014
Betfair
1
Djokovic
2.4
2
Federer
5.0
3
Murray
6.8
4
Wawrinka
20
5
Dimitrov
23
6
Tsonga
28
7
Raonic
32
8
Kyrgios
80
9
Berdych
85
10
Ferrer
90
11
Gulbis
120
12
Isner
150
13
Cilic
170
14
Nishikori
180
15
Monfils
370
16
Robredo
400
17
Dolgopolov
420
18
Gasquet
500
19
Tomic
510
20
Anderson
520
21
Janowicz
550
22
Pospisil
610
23
FLopez
650
24
Simon
750
25
Bautista Agut
810


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