US Open Women’s Preview 2014
Charles Friesen
I and just about every other predictor out there have made
Serena the favourite at the last 10 or so slams. She’s bombed the last 3. Are we all going to fall for it again?
Chaos reigns on the women’s tour. Who is this year’s best player? Is Serena Williams going to pull it together
and assert order from the top? Despite a
tour-leading 5 titles this season, she’s been dreadful in the slams… winning
only 6 matches.
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Slam match wins 2014
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Bouchard
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16
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Halep
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15
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Sharapova
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13
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ARadwanska, Cibulkova, Kerber,
Safarova
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10
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Li, Kvitova, Makarova
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9
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Others…
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SWilliams
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6
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It used to be that despite how bad the rest of her season
was, Serena was a performer. She could
always be counted on at slam time to pull off a miracle and come from some
unfathomable depth to hoist the hardware.
She’s clinging to #1 by a thread and the problem is her lack
of points at the slams. Of course she
could turn it all around. Her year is
still salvageable and she can still look like a legitimate #1 with a victory at
this US Open. But if she falls short,
she will be vulnerable to be overtaken at the #1 spot. She’s only 3rd in the points race
this year. Leading the pack are
Sharapova and Halep. A victory by either
of them could provide bragging rights for best player of the year. The same goes for Kvitova and Li, slam
winners this year, although Li is out with injury. If Halep wins the US title she will become
#1, unless Serena makes the semis or better.
Serena’s win-loss this year is 32-3 outside the slams and
6-3 at the slams. Why the disparity? At age 32 it’s not unexpected that she’s
having off days. Is it just coincidence
that they’re at the majors? Or is
something wrong with her mental game? Is
the invincible one actually feeling the pressure?
First Quarter
I just can’t pick against Serena (seeded 1). She may have been mental mush at the majors
all year, but she just won Cincinnati and Washington, her form must be
good. Right…?
She could have a test in the first round against 18 year old
Taylor Townsend who, at the French, took out Alize Cornet, Serena’s conqueror
at Wimbledon. Serena’s 4th
round could bring up Samantha Stosur (24), who beat her in the USO final of
2011. Stosur is capable of anything,
except consistency it seems. Serena ‘should’
win that match but it’s also a real opportunity for Serena to suffer yet another
early exit.
Stosur’s section includes Coco Vandeweghe who announced
herself in Montreal by tag-teaming top-ten Serbs Ivanovic and Jankovic. Coco may have to get through Carla Suarez
Navarro (15) in her second match.
Lepchenko and Zhang (32) are also in this eighth, so Serena’s ride to
the quarters is far from guaranteed.
Should she make it that far, she’s seeded to face Pennetta
(11) or Ana Ivanovic (8). Ivanovic took
Serena out of the Australian this year but has lost to Serena 3 times since,
including in the final of Cincinnati.
Making that final shows Ana’s form is good. Ivanovic could have a tricky opener against
Allison Riske, and Dellacqua (29) in the third is capable of rising to the big
occasion. Pennetta has done little since
winning Indian Wells in March, but has made the quarters 4 times at the USO,
including semis last year. It should be
a very interesting quarter. Serena is
capable of gliding through, but will she?
SWilliams d. Ivanovic
Second Quarter
The second quarter could be decided by a rematch of the
Wimbledon final if Petra Kvitova (3) and Eugenie Bouchard (7) live up to their
seedings. Bouchard has been in forgettable
form since a runner-up performance at Wimbledon. The low after such an amazing high is perhaps
not surprising. She’s won only one match
since. She should be able to play back
into form as the tournament progresses and has shown a real proclivity for the
slams finishing SF-SF-RU at the three so far this year. But considering her recent play, an early
exit is not unthinkable. She could get Wimbledon
quarter-finalist Barbara Zahlavova Strycova (30) in R3, followed by Aus Open
runner-up Dominika Cibulkova (12) or Ekatarina Makarova (17) who is having a
career year and coming off semis in Montreal and Washington.
Kvitova’s first match against talented striker Kristina
Mladenovic is not a gimme, and she could facing rising teen Madison Keys (27),
seeded for the first time at a slam, in round 3. The fourth could bring up Svetlana Kuznetsova
(20) or Victoria Azarenka (16) who own 4 slam singles titles between them. Both have been to the USO final twice before,
with Kuznetsova winning it in 2004.
In previous years I would pencil in Azarenka as the winner
of this quarter based on consistency and hard court game. But she is still coming back from injury that
took her out for most of 5 months and has not displayed anything close to her
top form. Kvitova is notoriously
inconsistent, especially after a big win, and has never been past the fourth
round at the US Open. Bouchard has won
more matches at the slams this year than anyone else, but is struggling. Kuznetsova is a head case.
In short, the door is wide open in this quarter. It could be Keys breakout performance, or
maybe Makarova will take another step upwards.
This quarter could easily produce an unseeded semi-finalist like young
risers Zarina Diyas or Elina Svitolina.
Makarova d. Azarenka
Third Quarter
Agnieszka Radwanska (4) gets top billing and appears to have
a fairly straight forward path to the quarters with the inconsistents, Vinci
(28), Cornet (22), and Safarova (14), as likely seeded opponents. Trouble is, Aggie herself has never made it
out of the fourth round at the US Open.
This is a golden opportunity.
Safarova made SF at Wimbledon, which could mean she’s ripe for a
letdown, although she did take Venus Williams out of Cincinnati.
The other half of this quarter features Angelique Kerber
(6), Jelena Jankovic (9), Sloane Stephens (21), and Kurumi Nara (31). Stephens has come back to earth after a
stellar 2013, so a Kerber-Jankovic fourth round appears likely. Jankovic made the final here in 2008, and Kerber’s
break-through came in NY in 2011, making the semis. I lean toward Kerber, based on her finalist
performance recently in Stanford.
Kerber d. ARadwanska
Fourth Quarter
This year’s leader in the WTA points race is Maria Sharapova
(5), followed closely by Simona Halep (2), and both are in the bottom
quarter. Halep could meet French Open
quarter-finalist Garbine Muguruza (25) in R3.
Nearby lurks Venus Williams (19) whose return to form saw her beat
Serena in Canada, two weeks ago. A
fourth round clash between Venus and Halep is difficult to predict. Venus may have to get through Sara Errani
(14) first, who has not looked sharp this summer.
Maria Sharapova opens against compatriot Maria
Kirilenko who has beaten her twice
before. The third round could bring up
the ever-dangerous Sabine Lisicki (26). Opposite them are seeds Petkovic (18) and
Wozniacki (10) both of whom have been showing improving results of late. It will likely boil down to a fourth round
battle between Sharapova and Wozniacki, with the result by no means obvious.
After winning in 2006, Sharapova had struggled at the Open
until last year when she made the semis, losing a close 3-setter to
Azarenka. She has not looked
particularly on-form since her French victory in June. Is she ready for another deep slam run?
There are a lot of potential winners in this quarter: Sharapova, Halep, VWilliams, and Wozniacki
look the most likely. I like Venus’ form
and attitude.
VWilliams d. Sharapova
Semis
Once again I’ve predicted Serena for the semis, but this
time I honestly won’t be surprised if she doesn’t make it. If she does, I make her the strong front runner
anytime she makes the semis of a slam.
Makarova, (or Bouchard, or Azarenka, or Kvitova) would probably not beat
Serena at this stage... although Kuznetsova might...
SWilliams d. Makarova
If Venus can survive the hornet’s nest of the bottom
quarter, she should be able to withstand a strong assault from Kerber. Kerber will likely play well and her
hard-hitting consistency is tough to beat, but Venus has access to so many
tools... if she can only find them.
VWilliams d. Kerber
Final
The last time Serena lost to Venus twice in a row was
2008-2009. If Serena’s plays reasonably
well she should take it. But Venus is
very talented and anything is possible.
The bookies are less optimistic than I about Venus’ chances.
SWilliams d. VWilliams
Bookies
Decimals Odds from Betfair.com on 18 Aug 2014
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1
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SWilliams
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2.64
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2
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Sharapova
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8.2
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3
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Halep
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9.0
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4
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Bouchard
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15.5
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5
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Kvitova
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16
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6
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Azarenka
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25
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7
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Wozniacki
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26
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8
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ARadwanska
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29
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9
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Ivanovic
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40
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10
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Kerber
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65
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11
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Stephens
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80
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12
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Keys
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85
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13
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Stosur
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85
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14
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VWilliams
|
90
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15
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Muguruza
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90
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16
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Lisicki
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170
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17
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Vandeweghe
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180
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18
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Pavlyuchenkova
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180
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19
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Petkovic
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180
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20
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Safarova
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200
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21
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Kuznetsova
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200
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22
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Cibulkova
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200
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23
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Jankovic
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260
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24
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Pennetta
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270
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25
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Li
|
280
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