2015 Men’s Tennis ATP Yearend and Predictions for 2016

Novak Djokovic bolted out of the gate, winning the Australian Open in January and the 1000-double at Indian Wells and Miami in March.  He followed it up with another two 1000’s, in Monte Carlo and Rome, but skipped Madrid which was won, unexpectedly, by Andy Murray over Rafael Nadal on clay.  

The surprises continued when Stan Wawrinka denied Nole the grand slam by beating him in the French final, after Novak handed Nadal only his second ever loss at Roland Garros, in the quarterfinals.  At Wimbledon, Djokovic held off Roger Federer in the final for the second straight year. 

Andy Murray gave Novak his fourth loss of the year, in the Canadian final, the first loss for Nole at the 1000 level all year.  A week later Federer repeated the feat in Cincinnati.  But Djokovic prevailed when it really counted, in the US Open final, again over Federer.

Djokovic continued his amazing run in China picking up titles at the 500 event in Beijing and the 1000 in Shanghai.  By capturing the 1000 in Paris, he became the first man to capture six 1000’s in a single year.  For an encore he won the World Tour Finals (formerly known as the Masters), losing once to Federer in the round-robin.

In the meantime, Murray finished the year at #2 on the ATP computer, his best.  However, since Federer had 3 wins over Djokovic (to 1 for Murray), made 2 slam finals (1 for Murray), and had 6 tournament victories (4 for Murray), it seems like Federer is the real challenger to Djokovic dominance.  Murray did cap his year by claiming the Davis Cup for Britain, ending a 79 year drought.

The year’s main arcs were Djokovic’s dominance, the re-emergence of Murray, the amazing play and pluck of Federer at age 34, the confirmation of Wawrinka in the game’s top echelon, and the struggles of Nadal. 

Novak Djokovic

Counting slams, 1000’s, and the World Tour Finals (WTF), Nole won 10 of the 14 largest tournaments of the year – an unmatched feat.  By comparison he won 8 in 2011, and Federer won 8 of 14 in 2006.

# of Slams, 1000’s, and WTF won

10            Djokovic              2015
8              Federer                 2006
8              Djokovic              2011
7              Borg                     1979
7              McEnroe              1984
7              Federer                 2004
7              Nadal                    2013
6              Connors 1976, Borg 1980, Lendl 1986, Sampras 1994, Federer 2005 & 2007, Nadal 2010, Djokovic 2014

For the year, Djokovic’s match win-loss numbers were 82-6.  This stacks up well against other best years in the open era, at #6 on the list.

Best Match Winning Percentage – Open Era (since 1968)

82-3       0.965     McEnroe              1984
81-4       0.953     Federer                 2005
92-5       0.948     Federer                 2006
94-6       0.940     Connors                1974
84-6       0.933     Borg                      1979
82-6       0.932     Djokovic               2015
90-7       0.928     Connors                1976
74-6       0.925     Lendl                    1986
74-6       0.925     Federer                 2004

Arguments for this being the greatest year in men’s Open Era Tennis would have to centre around the quality of Djokovic’s wins, since the raw numbers in match-win percentage do not support it.  But if quality is the consideration, it becomes very difficult to overlook Rod Laver’s 1969 when he won the four majors to complete the Grand Slam.  And McEnroe’s 1984 when he won everything he entered except the French final (like Djokovic), one Davis cup match, and a Cincinnati match (also like Novak), also looks superior.  Nor should Connor’s 1974 be underestimated, in which he won all the majors he entered and racked up 94 match wins.  Chris Chase has argued that Federer’s 2006 was better than Novak’s 2015.

And looking back into history, Bill Tilden’s 1921 when he won all the majors of that time (Wimbledon, World Hard Court Chps – French, the US Chps) and the Davis Cup is tough to beat, or maybe Tilden’s 1925 when he went 78-1 completing a 95 match win streak.  Tony Wilding won all the European majors of his day in 1913 (Wimbledon, WHCC, and World Covered Court Chps) but not the US Open – which he never played; and Laurence Doherty was unprecedented in 1903 in taking the first ever Wimbledon-US double, along with the Davis Cup – all the biggest tournaments of that time – and going undefeated for the year. 

Don Budge won the first ever grand slam in 1938, but he did not face four of his biggest rivals at the time, most of whom had gone pro – Ellsworth Vines, Fred Perry, Hans Nusslein, and Gottfried von Cramm (who was not pro, but banned by the Nazis).  Similarly, Laver did not face his biggest rivals in his 1962 amateur slam and is by some accounts ranked only 4^th for the year. 

Then there is the matter of the so-called ‘professional grand slam’ of the pre-open (pre-1968) era.  Ken Rosewall won the 3 professional slams (US Pro, French Pro, Wembley Pro) in 1963, and Laver did it in 1967.  Incidentally, that gives Laver the very unique designation of winning an amateur slam (1962), a professional slam (1967), and an open slam (1969).  No matter how you slice it, Laver won a Grand Slam.  And a lot of previous greats did equivalent feats – winning all the most important matches of their day.

Charles’ Ranking of the Greatest Seasons of All Time

1.                   1969       Laver

2.                   1984       McEnroe

3.                   1903       LDoherty

4.                   1921       Tilden

5.                   2006       Federer

6.                   1974       Connors

7.                   2015       Djokovic

Perhaps my assessment will change in future years after more rumination, but 7^th is about where I’d put Djokovic’s 2015 – which is extremely good.

This marks the fourth yearend #1 finish for Novak, putting him on the short list of open era greats:  Sampras, Federer, and Borg, who finished yearend #1 six, five, and four times respectively.  Including the pre-open era, there are 14 men who have 4 or more yearend #1 finishes, by my accounting.

Yearend #1 Finishes

8 – Pancho Gonzales
7 – Bill Tilden, William Renshaw, Don Budge
6 – Pete Sampras
5 – Laurence Doherty, Jack Kramer, Rod Laver, Roger Federer
4 – Bobby Riggs, Ken Rosewall, Bjorn Borg, Novak Djokovic

As the tennis year begins, Djokovic has now been ranked #1 for 180 weeks on the ATP computer, which is 5^th all time. 

Computer #1 – Weeks

302 – Federer
286 – Sampras
270 – Lendl
268 – Connors
180 – Djokovic

Novak is the oldest of the five to reach 180 weeks, just topping Lendl by 3 months.  He’s been in the top 2 for 251 consecutive weeks, which is the 4^th longest run, after, Federer, Connors, and Lendl.  It has been 230 weeks since a new player attained the #1 ranking for the first time, the third longest gap in ATP history.

Weeks Since New Player Attained ATP #1

after Lendl – 289 weeks – succeeded by Wilander
after Federer – 237 weeks – succeeded by Nadal
after Djokovic – 230+ weeks – succeeded by ??
after Connors – 160 weeks – succeeded by Borg

Looking forward to 2016, there are some reasons to suspect that Djokovic will perform slightly worse than he did this year.  All of the great players mentioned above with the greatest seasons of all time saw a decrease in their level the following year.  It is unlikely Djokovic will be different.  Furthermore, Federer, Murray, and Nadal all appear to be on the upswing for 2016 – which will make it tougher for Novak.  And Stan Wawrinka may have some big tennis left in him, too.

Regardless, I would still expect Djokovic to finish #1 next year, and claim at least 1 slam title.  If he does, it would be the 6^th consecutive year he claims a singles slam.

Consecutive Years with Singles Slam Title

10 – Nadal
8 – Borg, Sampras, Federer
7 – Sears
6 – WRenshaw, Wilding, Tilden

But it is also possible that Djokovic will improve in 2016, the way Federer improved his stellar 2005 (81-4, 2 slam titles) with an even better 2006.  A golden calendar year slam is possible, if highly unlikely.

Roger Federer

Despite making the Wimbledon, US Open, and WTF finals, Federer finishes #3 on the computer behind Murray, largely because of Roger’s record in the nine 1000 level tournaments, where he only made it to the QF or better 3 times.  Murray made SF or better 8 times at the 1000 level.  But as the only man to beat Djokovic more than once, going 3-5 for the year, Federer seems like the most legitimate challenger for the top spot.  He won the second most tournaments for the year.

2016 Titles

11 – Djokovic
6 – Federer
5 – Ferrer
4 – Murray, Wawrinka
3 – Nadal, Nishikori, Thiem

The real story for Federer is his good health at age 34.  There seemed no real impediments to his game.  Any slam title in 2016 should be a goal for Federer and would give him #18, tying him with Jack Nicklaus who won 18 majors in golf.  Of course, counting professional slams (1927-67), Rosewall has 23 and Laver 19.

Federer would seem one of the most likely to win a slam in 2016 if Djokovic should falter.  But if Nadal makes a significant comeback, Roger may get squeezed out of the slam circle again.  Wimbledon is probably his best chance for another major title.  Nor should the Olympics be ignored, played in Rio on hard courts.  Federer should be highly motivated to claim the one significant title that eludes him, although the medal-less Djokovic should be equally eager.

Andy Murray

Murray claims he will pull out of the Australian Open if his baby is born during the tournament.  Hopefully that will not be necessary, and the baby will be fine regardless.  Murray finished #2 on the ATP computer for the first time ever.  He was very consistent in 2015, but it would be hard to say that the year topped 2012 when he won the Olympics and the US Open, or 2013 when he won Wimbledon.  But it was a step in the right direction.

I would like to expect more improvement from Murray in 2016 and maybe a slam title, but he seemed to make little progress against Djokovic going 1-6 against his chief rival.  And his straight-set thrashing at the hands of Nadal at the World Tour Finals where he won only 5 games does not bode well.  He’s also lost his last 5 matches with Federer. 

If Nadal continues to flounder, Murray could well stay at #2, since Federer is playing a reduced schedule this year that will restrict his ability to gain points.  Andy’s best chance at a slam title is probably Wimbledon, or the Australian where he has made four finals.

Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka proved in 2015 that he belongs in the top echelon of the game.  Despite the slam title in 2014, no one predicted that he would take the 2015 French title right out of Djokovic’s hands.  And he was not a one-hit wonder either, taking 4 titles during the year and finishing with the second most matches won in the slams for 2015, after Djokovic.  Stan made semis at both the US and Australian opens.

Slam Singles Matches Won 2015

27 – Djokovic
21 – Wawrinka
19 – Murray
18 – Federer
14 – Berdych, Gasquet
13 – KAnderson

I think another slam title in 2016 is possible for Wawrinka, although it is hard to expect when he will peak.  Wimbledon is not likely since his best showing there is QF, but any of the other three is a possibility.  Putting together a consistent #1-like year does not seem likely, but a #3 or 4 finish is within reach.

Rafael Nadal

After a decade of extremely high level play, becoming the first man ever to win a slam title for each of 10 consecutive years, I suppose a letdown was inevitable.  In 2013 it was Federer falling to yearend #6, in 2014 Murray fell to #7, and in 2015 Nadal finished at #5, after brushing #10 in June and July.

Most perplexing was that Nadal won none of the big clay tournaments where he has multiple titles:  none of Monte Carlo (8 titles), Barcelona (8 titles), Rome (7 titles), Madrid (4 titles), and not his jewel, the French Open where he’s won 9 times.  However, despite the setbacks, he did manage 3 smaller titles for the year and looked much better toward year’s end, going 17-5 after the US Open, including victories over Murray, Ferrer, Wawrinka (twice), and nemesis Fabio Fognini who beat him three times in 2015.

Nadal seems determined to improve in 2016 and he could seriously alter the order established in 2015.  Then again, he did seem to make several returns to form in 2015, only to flounder again.  Whether or not we will see more consistency from him is anyone’s guess.  Based on form at the end of the year, I expect him to improve.  But I don’t expect him to dominate Djokovic.  However, Nadal might re-establish some clay court cred, and I’ll expect him back in the winner’s circle at clay 1000 events, possibly even Roland Garros.

Regaining the French crown will be Nadal’s best shot at slam numero 15, but getting by Djokovic or a red-hot Wawrinka might be a tall order, even for the all-time King of Clay.  If he’s rounding into decent clay form in late May, I will probably be making Nadal my favourite for the French yet again.  I think a top 5 finish yearend is close to inevitable, and #2 or #3 is highly possible.  Duels with Federer could once again go his way.

Other Notables

Tomas Berdych finishes his 6^th consecutive year at #6 or 7 on the computer, and David Ferrer (#7) notches his 7^th year in the yearend top 10 – an open era record he shares with Tom Okker for non-slam winners.

Most years in the yearend top 10 for non-slam winners – Open era

7 – Okker, Ferrer
6 – Berdych, Tsonga
5 – Henman, Davydenko, Nalbandian
4 – Dibbs, Solomon, Ramirez, GMayer, Clerc, Enqvist, Gasquet

Also appearing on this list are current players Tsonga (#10) with 6 years and Gasquet (#9) with four.  Both experienced comebacks this year and could stay in the top 10 for 2016, although Berdych and Ferrer are probably more likely to do it.  Rounding out the group is Kei Nishikori at #8. 

Nishikori seems a highly unpredictable player, extremely talented but physically fragile and prone to injury.  After taking the title in Washington in early August, he seemed to flounder the rest of the year, going only 9-7 in regular tournament play.  If he does not have a significant turn around, I will expect him to fall from the top 10.  His run to the US final in 2014 is now seeming more the exception than the rule.  This is a far cry from last year when I predicted he could finish as high as #2, based on his level of talent.

Milos Raonic suffered a foot injury that severely affected his play after May, and had him falling to a yearend #14 after reaching as high as #4.  He will need to rebuild in 2016.  Marin Cilic returned to pre-2014 levels at #13 yearend.  Kevin Anderson had his best year, nipping briefly into the top 10, before finishing at #12.  And John Isner also had his best finish at #11, slightly better than the #14 he achieved in both 2012 and 2013. 

Grigor Dimitrov (age 24) did not live up to last year’s promise and fell from #11 last year to #28.  Dominic Thiem (age 22) continued his steady climb to #20 from #39 last year and is the youngest player in the top 20.  Benoit Paire (age 26) regained and improved position at #19 from #118 in 2014 and #26 the year before.  David Goffin (age 25) improved slightly from #22 last year to #16.  Bernard Tomic (age 23) improved from four years around #50 to #18.  Will he finally live up to his promise?  Jack Sock (age 23) improved from #42 to #26.  All these will be worth watching in 2016 although I do not see them as top 10 players.

Young Guns

Nick Kyrgios (age 20), rank #30, improved from #52 last year, by making the Aus Open QF, the Estoril 250 final, and Wimbledon fourth round (4R) .  He also faced controversy in his public taunting of Wawrinka, and came within a hairsbreadth of serious sanctions by the tour.  I think he will learn from this and mature.  I also think he has a huge, dangerous game and may be the most legitimate challenger for the very top when the Big 4 finally begin to falter – if he can learn to control his emotions and approach the game professionally.  With his power, size, coordination, and speed, the sky is the limit.

Borna Coric (age 19), rank #44, continued to climb, up from #102 last year.  Having notched a win over Nadal last year, he continued to impress by taking down Murray in February.  The rest of his year was more solid than impressive, but bodes well for his future.  I can see him settling in to the top 20 at some point.

Hyeon Chung (age 19), rank #51, made sizable gains in 2015 from #173 last year.  At 6’1” he is near the ideal size for a top tennis player.  His best results were at the challenger level, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against the big boys in 2016, now that his ranking will gain him entry to the top tournaments.

Thanasi Kokkinakis (age 19), rank #80, is another part of the young Aussie wave that holds promise for future Australian Davis Cup campaigns.  Rising from #150 last year, he looked strong in pushing Gasquet to 5 sets at the US Open, making 3R at the French, and 4R at Indian Wells.  Getting inside the top 50 should be possible in 2016.

It will be interesting to see if Alexander Zverev (age 18), rank #83, can grow comfortably into his height, 6’6”, or if this will limit his career arc with lack of mobility the way it has so many other tall men.  He’s up from #136 last year, and top 50 should be possible in 2016.  He’s still very young.

Kyle Edmund (age 20) ranking #102, rode quietly up from #194 last year and was notable in pushing Goffin to 5 sets in the Davis Cup final.  He should entrench himself in the top 100 for 2016.

Jared Donaldson (age 19) ranking #134 leads a wave of young Americans, including Taylor Fritz (age 18) #174, Frances Tiafoe (age 17) #176, Tommy Paul (age 18) #276, Noah Rubin (age 19) #336, and Stefan Kozlov (age 17) #351.  This group may push each other to greatness.  Early scouting suggests Tiafoe may have the most promise of the lot, although the grit that lies at the soul of a champion is not often predictable.

Karen Kachanov, (age 19) #152, and Andrey Rublev (age 18) #185 are too few to constitute a ‘wave’ of Russians but bear watching; as does Elias Ymer, (age 19) #136, of Sweden.

I will also be interested to see what Canada’s Felix Auger Aliassime, (age 15) #742, can accomplish.  He is the first player born in the 2000’s that I am following.

Rankings and Slam Predictions

2015 Rankings

Kevin Anderson was the only new addition to the ATP top 10 during 2015, and he only lasted for one week in October.  The yearend top 10 for the ATP are the same as my yearend top 10.  My predictions from last year appear in brackets.

2016 Top Ten Predictions

For 2016 I, along with just about everyone else, are predicting another year for Djokovic at #1.  Murray gets #2 for being solid everywhere, and edges out Federer because of Federer’s reduced schedule in 2016.  Nadal could very well nab #2 if he plays well, but continuing uncertainty from last year’s patchy play has me pegging him no higher than #4.  I would like to place Wawrinka higher than #5, and he very well could rise up and claim another slam, but the Big 4 are just too solid and reliable to have him infiltrating their rankings in my opinion.

At #6 David Ferrer must be granted respect for his continued durability, and putting Berdych at #7 requires the creativity of an assembly robot.  Tsonga showed signs of life at the end of 2015, and I expect he may climb slightly if he can play a full year to #8.  I also expect Raonic to come back to the top 10 if he stays healthy and slot him into #9.

That leaves one spot, and there were many eligible suitors.  Passing over the massive talent of Nishikori may seem like madness, but his fragility leaves me in doubt about his future accomplishments.  Gasquet has four yearend top 10 finishes and is in his (modern) prime at 29 years old.  Marin Cilic may well have some big tennis left in him and perhaps 2015 was a sophomore slump before claiming another slam title.  Bernard Tomic showed steady improvement last year and could finally fulfill his promise and reach the top 10 in 2016, but I think it more likely that his younger, more powerful countryman, Kyrgios will attain that height.  It definitely is a stretch call on my part, but I think Kyrgios has the youth, the talent, and the brashness to make a serious mark on tennis in 2016.  There is a lot that could go wrong for him, but I think the fundamentals are there.

Charles’ Slam Predictions 2016

Based on current form, Novak Djokovic should be favoured at every tournament he plays.  Any uncertainty has mostly to do with Nadal.  Nadal certainly has the talent, and if he can get his game together he could easily become the favourite on clay for 2016.

Federer probably has a reasonable shot at the Wimbledon title, where he has won 7 times from 10 finals.  And Stan Wawrinka is dangerous everywhere he plays.  Murray could do well at the Aus Open or Wimbledon, and Nishikori and Cilic also have the talent to produce surprises.  I am predicting Kyrgios is most likely to succeed at Wimbledon, but exactly when he bursts through could probably happen anywhere – it will depend on when he is ready.

Bookies Decimal Odds from Bet365.com on 23 Nov 2015

The bookies generally rate Murray higher and Federer lower than I do.  They also hedge their bets on Del Potro.  I believe Delpo has huge talent, but even if he comes back during 2016, it will be a while before he plays back into form after such a long absence.  Like me, the bookies seem to expect another year of Djominance.