Australian Open 2016 – Women
Serena Williams last played in the semi-finals of the US
Open in early September. That’s over
four months without an official match.
She seems peerless in this era, far outdistancing her nearest
competition in head-to-head contests, but she will not be match tough coming
into this Australian Open. Will rust
make an upset likely?
If Serena Williams plays well, she should be the heavy
favourite. She should beat everyone else
in the draw. But sometimes she simply
does not. She may be the only one who
can beat herself – by inconsistent play and not finding her groove. But how to predict this? I would say the odds are slightly higher than
normal that she will succumb to an upset, merely because of the lack of recent
match play. But she is still the
favourite. She has a record 6 Open era
titles, second on the all time list.
Australian Titles
11 – Court
6 – SWilliams, WynneBolton
5 – Ackhurst
4 – Seles, Graf, Goolagong
3 – Hingis, Navratilova, Hartigan
6 – SWilliams, WynneBolton
5 – Ackhurst
4 – Seles, Graf, Goolagong
3 – Hingis, Navratilova, Hartigan
Contenders
If Serena should falter, the list of most likely to succeed
does not necessarily start with the top seeds.
It seems slam winners on the women’s tour are most often those
characterized as ‘big-hitters’. This
includes players like Sharapova, Kvitova, Azarenka, Li, Clijsters, and Venus
Williams. We have to go back to the days
of Martina Hingis who last won a slam title in 1999 to find a ‘small hitter’
taking a slam title.
That fact does not bode well for Simona Halep (seeded #2)
and Agnieszka Radwanska (#4). Both have done
very well in the last year. Radwanska is
on a three tournament win streak, taking 4 of 6 she’s played since the US Open. Her game relies on craft, consistency, and a
lot of running to support her defensive play.
But to put that together for seven consecutive matches is a tall
order. Typically, Radwanska has mustered
a win over a big-hitting highly ranked player at a slam only to come up flat
the next match. If there is ever a time
when she could string together more consistency, now may be it, when she is
experiencing the best results of her career.
Halep is still ranked #2 and she is a wonderful player, but
she has looked distinctly mentally weak at times, apparently giving up in
matches when she is behind, and suffering unpredictable losses. She definitely struggles against big-hitters
and would probably need to see others upset both Serena and Sharapova to have a
realistic shot at the title.
Garbine Muguruza is ranked #3 and may be poised for a big
breakthrough. She’s steadily improved in
the last two years and has the requisite big game to succeed on the slam stage. This will be a critical year for her. She will either become a slam winner or may
settle into the role of perennial challenger.
I am of the opinion that psychological self-image contributes a big part
to what a player achieves in their career.
Of course raw talent is an even bigger factor, but players often perform
only to expectation and may not fully utilize their potential. Performing beyond expectation is truly
difficult, and learning to fully realize one’s potential is as important as
having that potential.
Now would be a great time for Muguruza to win a slam and
develop some positive self-image to carry through her career. Serena and Sharapova are both not match-tough
and Azarenka and Venus have not won slams for quite some time. The door is open.
Other than an incomplete match in Wuhan, Maria Sharapova has
played in only one tournament since the US Open. She looked strong in the yearend championship
taking out Halep, Radwanska, and Flavia Pennetta, but that was 2 months ago and
she pulled out injured last week from a warm up event. She’s been in four Aus Open finals, so she
may favour the surface. But like Serena,
I suspect she will be rusty and may be prone to an upset for that reason. There is no one in the draw she should fear
except Serena and possibly Azarenka (against whom she is 8-7 head-to
head). If Maria can hang tough for a few
rounds and Serena is upset, Sharapova will be the favourite.
Victoria Azarenka finally claimed another title last week
after a 2.5 year drought. She’s seeded
14 this year and hasn’t looked like one of the top echelon for a while. She beat Vinci (#15) and Kerber (#10) last
week, but we still do not know how she will do against the top players. She must at least be in the conversation of
possible contenders. She won this title
twice, in 2012 and 2013, and has 3 wins over Serena, so she must be considered
a serious threat for the title. The
bookies have her as their number two after Serena.
Petra Kvitova is ranked six and has the sort of big game
that can win slams, as her two Wimbledon titles attest. But she has never fared particularly well on
hardcourts, her best result here being semis.
Combine that with her general lack of consistency and I do not see her
as a serious threat for the title. Semis
again would be a good run from her.
Venus Williams has not won here either, but she did make the
final 13 years ago. She has the game to
beat anyone when she is on and can still muster it at times, despite her age of
35. She has by far the most wins over
Serena of any player, active or inactive, with 11 wins. But she does not generally demonstrate the consistency
to play two or three high quality matches in a row these days. She could go deep, but it would be a surprise
to see her hoist the hardware after the final.
Top Quarter
Serena leads off against Camila Giorgi who is the top-ranked
unseeded player in the draw. Seeded
against Williams for the 3rd Round (3R) is 21-year old AK
Schmiedlova, who impressed last year with two 280-point titles. Fourth round for Serena could bring up the
very formidable former #1 Caroline Wozniacki, now fallen to 16th
seed. Despite her recent struggles,
Wozniacki has a win over Serena, and two US Open final appearances in her back
pocket. She should be under-estimated by
no one.
The other half of the quarter features Maria Sharapova (#5)
and Belinda Bencic (#12) along with two players who could be good for a big
upset but not the title: Svetlana
Kuznetsova (#23) and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (#26). It’s difficult to know what to make of
Sharapova’s form. If she can battle
through to the second week, she may play into shape, but she will be vulnerable
to an upset in any of her first four matches through either physical or mental
rust.
Bencic is just 18 years old, but should be considered
extremely dangerous. She handed Serena
one of only 3 losses last year and has the sort of potential that has everyone
taking notice. Will she mature into a
slam contender this year? Her draw is
murderous, potentially having to mow down 4 of the top 5 seeds in succession to
claim the title. That’s tall order but
she did beat 4 top 10 players in Canada in August so anything is possible. She might be good for an upset or two this
time, but a title run may have to wait a little longer.
SWilliams d. Bencic
Second Quarter
Aggie Radwanska (#4) leads the quarter but may have to play
the most dangerous floater in the draw in the second round, unseeded Eugenie
Bouchard, the former #5 who is into the final in Hobart this week. The winner of that potential contest is by no
means clear and could face former US Open titlist Sam Stosur (#25) in round
3. Next up may be 2013 semifinalist
Sloane Stephens (#24) or last year’s US Open finalist and slam-stopper, Roberta
Vinci (#13). A reasonable case can be
made for any of these five players to reach the QF.
Petra Kvitova (#6) is in the opposing eighth, but she has
not thriven in Melbourne. 2014 finalist
Dominika Cibulkova is unseeded and could have a very engaging first rounder
against #28 seed, Kristina Mladenovic, who has been shooting up the rankings in
the last year and was a QFist in the last slam, the 2015 US Open. The winner could face Kvitova in 3R. Also here are Carla Suarez Navarro (#10) and
Andrea Petkovic (#22) who have both been showing some sputtering signs of life
recently.
Vinci d. Mladenovic
Third Quarter
This is Garbine Muguruza’s (#3) quarter, but also features
Angelique Kerber (#6), Timea Bacsinszky (#11), and the very formidable Azarenka
(#14). Kerber has been playing well
recently and could face Bacsinszky in 4R.
Bacsinszky had the 4th best match-winning percentage on tour
last year, just behind the Williamses and Sharapova, and ahead of Halep. But Kerber has been playing quite well of
late and I would expect her to take the potential encounter.
Twenty year-old Victoria Duval might finally break out but
has her hands full in her first match against #18 Elina Svitolina. Either will likely be crushed by Azarenka in
3R. First time seed Caroline Garcia
(#32) could give Muguruza a tussle in 3R, but the match I’m really looking
forward to would be the fourth-rounder between Muguruza and Azarenka. I’m rather uncertain what would happen: raw, youthful power and against older,
experienced power. It could really go
either way, but I have to make a call so…
Azarenka d. Kerber
Fourth Quarter
This quarter is bracketed by an interesting dialectic in the
wiles, accuracy, and youth of Simona Halep (#2) versus the age, power, and
determination of Venus Williams (#8).
But they would have to win four matches each to face off.
Sabine Lisicki (#30) could spell trouble for Venus in
3R. Lisicki leads the head-to-head 3-1. Right next door is slam-loving Ekaterina
Makarova (#21) who has been to at least 4R of the last five editions of the
Australian Open, thrice to the QF including SF last year. She could face off against the big-hitting
and steadily-rising Karolina Pliskova, now rated as seed #9, in the third
round. I’ve often over-estimated Venus
in the past, so be warned that I may be doing it again, but I like her chances
in this section. However I wouldn’t be
surprised to see Pliskova or Makarova emerging either, especially Pliskova.
Halep seems to struggle with the big-hitters so she is lucky
that Madison Keys (15) and Ana Ivanovic (20) would have to face off in 3R
before facing her. Halep can be sharp
and laser-like with her strokes, but if either Keys or Ivanovic is on, it could
be her downfall. But I don’t expect that: Keys has the weight of last year’s SF showing
on her shoulders and Ivanovic is terminally inconsistent. If it should come down to Venus versus
Simona, it should be noted that Venus leads 3-1 and I don’t expect that trend
to change.
VWilliams d. Halep.
Semi-finals
For the first semi I seem to have picked a tantalizing
rematch of last year’s US Open semi-final in which Vinci derailed Serena’s
grand slam. With a head-to-head of 4-1
in Serena’s favour and Serena’s notorious taste for revenge, I don’t expect lightning
to strike twice.
SWilliams d. Vinci
My second semi-final choices pit Venus against
Azarenka. There are ample reasons why
neither should make it this far.
Azarenka hasn’t been as far as a slam SF since 2013, and for Venus it’s
been since 2010. Muguruza or Halep are
the obvious choices to replace them. They
are both high on most pundits’ lists of most-likely-to-win-a-first-slam. If Muguruza makes it this far, I would favour
her for a spot in the final. Otherwise I’m
going with the fight and bluster of Azarenka.
Azarenka d. VWilliams
Final
There are many possibilities that Serena will not make the
final (it would be cool to see Bencic make it this far!), but it is almost
impossible for a rational thinker to choose against Serena. She ‘should’ win. She has the most talent, the biggest game,
and by far the best pedigree with 21 slam titles, not to mention the current
world #1 ranking. But Azarenka has
played Serena close in the past before and has 3 wins over one of the greatest
athletes of all time. The bookies odds
are below.
SWilliams d. Azarenka
Odds
Bet365.com decimal odds on 15 January 2016.
1.
SWilliams 4
2.
Azarenka 5
3.
Halep 10
4.
Sharapova 11
5.
Muguruza 13
6.
Kvitova 15
7.
Bencic 15
8.
ARadwanska 21
9.
Kerber 26
10.
Stephens 34
11.
Keys 41
12.
KaPliskova 41
13.
VWilliams 51
14.
Bouchard 51
15.
Wozniacki 51
16.
Makarova 67
17.
Cibulkova 81
18.
Bacsinszky 81
19.
Ivanovic 81
20.
SuarezNavarro 101
21.
Svitolina 101
22.
Jankovic 101
23.
Garcia 101
24.
Stosur 101
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