Australian Open 2016 - Men

Australian Open 2016 – Men

Novak Djokovic has been all but invincible, with only 5 losses in the last year.  He’s won the Australian title five times and just thrashed one of his biggest rivals, Rafael Nadal, 6-1 6-2 last week.  His current form is devastating and when he’s on, no one else comes close.  He said his win last week was his best ever, so it’s possible we haven’t even seen peak Nole.  What a thought...

On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine 2016 could be even better than last year’s 11 titles, including three slams and six 1000 events.  Surely he’s going to have a letdown?  I’m not holding my breath.  He already has the most Australian Open titles in the Open era, and if he wins title #6 in Melbourne it will tie him with Roy Emerson for most all time.

Australian Titles

6 – Emerson
5 – Djokovic
4 – Crawford, Rosewall, Agassi, Federer
3 – J Anderson, Laver, Quist, Wilander

Djokovic’s particular blend of speed, flexibility, accuracy, mental toughness, and decent power overwhelm the competition.  With 10 slam titles in the bag, he’s going to be in the conversation about Greatest Of All Time, especially if he enters Bjorn Borg territory this month with #11.  Who can stop him?

Contenders

The only three men to have beaten Nole in the last year are Murray, Federer, and Wawrinka, coincidentally #s 2, 3, and 4 in the ATP rankings.  Murray’s win came in Canada last summer and has since been followed by two losses in which Murray averaged only 5 games per match.  Their four previous bouts in Melbourne have all gone Novak’s way.  Andy hasn’t played officially this year, but his form at the end of 2015 did not look promising, going down meekly to Nadal.  Add that to his promise to pull out of Australia if his baby is born – it is potentially due during the tournament – and it looks like Murray is not the prime choice to displace Djokovic on the podium.

Roger Federer owns three of the five wins inflicted on Novak in the last year, and was in the finals of last year’s Wimbledon and US Open.  Federer continues to amaze with his results and fitness at age 34.  Many past champions had faded by now and we must look back as far as Ken Rosewall in the 1960’s and 70’s to see comparable achievement in a male at this age.  Federer appears to play brilliantly against the field, but when he gets in a final against Novak, Roger’s level seems to drop.  It may be because Djokovic’s level is so high... or is it nerves from Federer?  The last time Roger won a major final against Djokovic was 8.5 years ago at the 2007 US Open, when Novak was 20 years old.  Advantage Djokovic.

So that brings us to Stan Wawrinka.  Stan the Man, as he is affectionately called, is the only man other than Djokovic to claim two slam titles in the last two years.  Nadal has one (2014 Fre), while Federer and Murray combine for zero.  The answer to the trivia question is Marin Cilic (2014 USO).  Wawrinka won more slam matches last year than anyone not named Djokovic and has the second best win percentage in the slams over the past two years.  Here are the top six.

Last 8 Slams

Novak - 4 W, matches: 49-4 = 0.925 (two losses to Wawrinka)
Wawrinka – 2 W, matches: 35-6 = 0.854
Federer - 0 W, matches: 37-8 = 0.822
Murray - 0 W, matches: 36-8 = 0.818
Nadal - 1 W, matches: 27-6 = 0.818
Cilic - 1 W, matches: 26-6 = 0.813

Wawrinka is 4^th in the official rankings and is clearly not as consistent as Murray or Federer.  So are his slam titles flukes?  The general consensus seems to be that Stan can raise his game to very great heights, as he did in last year’s French final, but he doesn’t play at that level most of the time.  This so-called ‘god-mode’ of Stan’s cannot be predicted, so the logic goes.

But looking at his matches with Novak, perhaps something about Djokovic’s game brings out the best in Stan – maybe it’s a good matchup for him.  In the last two years, the head-to-head is 4-2 for Novak, but in the slams it’s 2-1 for Wawrinka.  Digging deeper, in their last 5 slam meetings it is 3-2 for Novak, but all of Djokovic’s wins came in the fifth set.

So Stan is clearly pushing Novak.  Maybe it is playing Novak that gets Wawrinka into god-mode.  Or maybe Stan is a big-match player.  In fact, Stan has won his last 8 finals.  Not since mid-2013 has he made a final round and fallen.  Maybe it gets his mojo up.  He is “The Man” after all. 

All this has me thinking that the match I most want to see in Melbourne is Wawrinka vs. Djokovic.  Djokovic has to be the heavy favourite against the field, but if it comes down to a semi or final against Wawrinka, it could get a little less predictable.

The other name that bears mentioning in this section is Rafael Nadal.  He did not look good getting trounced by Novak last week, but the general trend of the last 4 months has been positive.  During that time he has racked up wins over Murray, Ferrer, and twice over Wawrinka.  A fit Nadal is not to be underestimated, as 14 slam titles attest.

But he has certainly looked like a man with no answers in his last five tests with Mr. Djokovic, not even mustering a set.  Djokovic is the only rival that can claim a winning lifetime record against Rafa, having just crept ahead 24-23 last week.  Rafa’s best chance is that Novak falters.  If the draw breaks his way and Wawrinka, say, takes out Nole before the final, then Rafa may have a chance.  Alternatively Nadal could clear the way for Djokovic by taking out Wawrinka or Murray or Federer.  Nadal will be the seed the top four least want to see in their section.

Hopefuls

The likes of Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while fearsome and consistent players who could beat anyone, are not likely to claim the title.  Stringing together three wins against the top echelon has not been happening for them.  Tsonga perhaps has a big enough game to pull it off, but lacks the consistency.

Marin Cilic is capable of anything, as his 2014 US Open win showed, but things would have to go his way with some upsets in the draw.  While that’s possible, the likelihood he can beat three players ranked above him consecutively is low.  Ditto Kei Nishikori who has looked to be on a downward slide for the last half year.  Of course, now would be perfect timing to prove his unpredictability and not the first time he has pulled a phoenix out of the ashes.  But I am far from expecting it.

Milos Raonic was very impressive in taking down Federer in straight sets last week.  However, the big man has struggled against both Djokovic and Wawrinka, against either of whom he owns zero wins.  But I will be watching him with interest.  He’s on the comeback trail after last year’s disappointing foot injury, and I don’t think we have yet seen peak-Milos.

The young crowd of Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, and Dominik Thiem should also be parsed.  Kyrgios has big enough game to suddenly surprise and enter the slam winner’s circle I believe, but I’m not expecting it at this tournament.  His form is not quite there at the moment... maybe by mid-year. 

Coric continues to impress and looked good in making the Chennai final last week, pushing Wawrinka to 7-5 in the second set.  Strictly by the numbers, his ranking and accumulation of tour wins for his age put him in the predictive zone for future slam champion.  Not a guarantee to be sure, but this is a positive sign about his potential.  Like Kyrgios, I don’t see him as quite ready to take the step just now.

Dominic Thiem continues to improve and has halved his ranking from a year ago.  He has not yet shown the consistency or the ability to beat big opponents to warrant future contender-status, but if he continues to improve he may eventually get there.

Before delving into the draw, Bernard Tomic bears mentioning.  The ‘young’ Aussie is now 23 years old, but has not had an easy road to maturity with many distractions on the home front.  But he always seems to perform his best in Australia and has reached a new career high at #17 in the rankings and a #16 seed – keeping him out of harm’s way from a top 8 player till at least the fourth round.  Perhaps he is finally ready to push to the next level.  He could pull off a deep run in Melbourne, and may reach the top 10 this year, but I don’t think he yet has the big-gun-beating firepower to claim this slam title.

Top Quarter

Promising teenager Hyeon Chung, currently ranked #52 and climbing rapidly, has a super tough Australian Open main-draw debut against top-seeded Djokovic.  It will be telling to see if Chung can push Novak.  Next up could be an even younger 19 year-old, Quentin Halys of France.  Djokovic’s third round could feature #28 seed Andreas Seppi, who took out Federer at this stage last year.  And the fourth could bring up the distinctive reflex-testing serve bombs of Ivo Karlovic (22) or their polar opposite:  the marathon fitness of get-everything-back Gilles Simon (14).

Former finalists here, Marcos Baghdatis (in 2006) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (#9, finalist in 2008), play a first-rounder, and the winner could meet dangerous Benoit Paire (#17) in the third round (3R).  Paire took Nishikori out of last year’s US Open.  Nishikori (#7) is seeded to meet Tsonga in 4R, with the winner seeded against Djokovic.  I like Tsonga’s recent form, but not Nishikori’s.  So that could bring up a rematch of the 2008 final, and Tsonga certainly has a big enough game to cause the huge upset.  He’s got 6 wins over Novak.  And 14 losses.

Djokovic d. Tsonga

Second Quarter

This quarter has some pretty interesting names like Tomas Berdych (#6), Marin Cilic (#12), Dominic Thiem (#19), Grigor Dimitrov (#27), Nick Kyrgios (#29), and even David Goffin (#15).  All of these have slam semi potential. 

Oh, and there’s one other important name here:  #3 Roger Federer.  I’m not sure Thiem’s straightforward power is ready to overcome the wiliness of David Goffin in 3R, but either will likely wilt before the power and variety of Federer in 4R.  Provided of course that Roger can overcome ‘Baby Fed’-Dimitrov first.  Dimitrov is into the Sydney final this week and may be regaining 2014 form when he reached #8 in the world.

Cilic and Berdych could stage a spectacle-worthy fourth-rounder.  Berdych leads their head-to-head 6-4.  Berdych didn’t look terrible losing to Djokovic last week in a second set tiebreaker, but ended 2015 badly with four straight losses.  Meanwhile, Cilic went out to Thiem last week.  But although Marin is capable of greater heights possibly than Tomas and has been racking up deep slam runs, Berdych has his most consistent slam results in Melbourne and so I favour him by a hair.

There is also the possibility Kyrgios could upset the apple cart and take out both Berdych and Cilic.  It would be a lot to ask though not impossible for Kyrgios’ energetic game.  But I expect Berdych will be unflinching in the third round.

Federer d. Berdych

Third Quarter

The third quarter brings up a most interesting potential tussle between the 4^th and 5^th seeds, Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal.  Really, this could hardly favour Djokovic more.  Wawrinka may be the most dangerous player in the draw for Novak, but Stan is only 3-14 against Nadal.  But before we paint Nadal into the slot it should be noted that Wawrinka’s 3 wins have all come in the last 5 matches.  So over the last five they are 3-2 for Wawrinka.  Still, it won’t be easy for Stan.  Nadal seems to be emerging from last year’s woes and is often most dangerous when he is the underdog.

But I am getting ahead of myself, there are 30 other players in this quarter who might have something to say about outcomes.  Nadal’s opener is against Fernando Verdasco who has won 2 of their last 3 matches.  Verdasco isn’t quite the player he used to be, but an upset here wouldn’t be a complete shock.  Nadal’s seeded 4R opponent is #11 Kevin Anderson.  “Big Kev” has 0 wins in 3 tries against Rafa, but he’s been improving recently and showed it by upsetting Andy Murray at last year’s US Open.  Nadal won’t take him for granted.

Wawrinka should be able to stare down climbing Jack Sock (#25) in 3R, despite Sock’s recent run of good form.  But things could get a lot trickier in 4R against Milos Raonic (#13).  Wawrinka has dominated the head-to-head 4-0, but Raonic would seem to be full of confidence after dismantling Federer last week, and that serve of his can be an indomitable match-decider.  It would not surprise to see Raonic showing up in the semi-final, but I have to go with the odds.

Wawrinka d. Nadal

Fourth Quarter

The Aussies are already making a great ballyhoo about the first round match between two Australian wildcards, James Duckworth and Lleyton Hewitt.  The match is auspicious because Hewitt (nearly age 35) has promised to retire after this year’s Aus Open.  And the ballyhoo is deserved since Hewitt claimed two slam titles early in his career, a US Open and a Wimbledon.  He was also yearend #1 twice, and the youngest in the open era to be ranked #1 on the ATP computer and to claim a yearend #1.  These are worthy accomplishments that should be remembered, even if he was then completely eclipsed by Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic for most of his career.

Youngest age of #1 computer ranking

Hewitt – 20.73
Safin – 20.82
McEnroe – 21.04
Roddick – 21.18
Borg – 21.21
Courier – 21.48
Sampras – 21.67
Connors – 21.90

Should Lleyton survive his first-rounder he will likely have his hands full with #8 David Ferrer in 2R.  Serving machine, John Isner, is seeded #10 this slam, but is not a lock against Feliciano Lopez (#18) in 3R.  Ferrer should get the better of either.

Bernard Tomic (#16) has been making positive signs recently and should be able to fend off mercurial Fabio Fognini (#20) in 3R.  Their match would have more raw talent and shot-making ability than some entire draws, and I will expect Tomic will be the more steady this time out.  If he makes fourth round he could face a very stern test at the hands of Andy Murray (#2), against whom he is 0-3.  Were it not for the dizzying heights achieved by Djokovic, Murray might be regarded a lot more highly.  To most players in the draw he must look absolutely formidable.

Murray d. Ferrer

Semifinals

And so we arrive at the semis and I have once again predicted the top 4 seeds.  But there are very defensible reasons these players are seeded so highly.

Federer is the only player to beat Djokovic more than once in the last year, going 3-5 in the last 12 months, so he has a reasonable chance to unseat the mighty Serb.  Djokovic loves these courts, as demonstrated by his perfect 5-0 record here in finals.  Federer hasn’t been to a Melbourne final since 2010.

Djokovic d. Federer

The head-to-head between Murray and Wawrinka sits at 8-7, so it should be anyone’s match.  But Wawrinka has won the last 3 encounters and the last time Murray beat Stan was in 2012.  And then there’s Murray’s impending baby who could have him scuttling back to the UK without making it this far.

Wawrinka d. Murray

Final

Whether or not Stan makes the final may depend most on Nadal.  If Wawrinka can overcome or avoid that hurdle, I favour him for the final.  Djokovic could be severely tested by Tsonga and Federer.  I’m sure Djokovic would like to believe that he learned something about playing Stan in last year’s French final.  Novak said later that he hadn’t been aggressive enough in that match.

But I believe that Wawrinka represents the biggest test for Djokovic.  Maybe it’s how their games match up.  It seems to bring the best out of Stan and make Novak nervous.  If they meet, I’ll expect five close sets, more momentum changes than a ride on a city bus, and high drama.  Wawrinka can pull this off, but Djokovic is just too tough right now, especially at his most successful tournament.

Djokovic d. Wawrinka

Odds

Bet365.com decimal odds on 15 January 2016

1	Djokovic	1.72
2	Murray	6
3	Federer	11
4	Nadal	13
5	Wawrinka	13
6	Nishikori	34
7	Raonic	41
8	Kyrgios	41
9	Cilic	51
10	Berdych	51
11	Dimitrov	51
12	Tsonga	67
13	Tomic	67
14	KAnderson	101
15	Ferrer	101
16	Thiem	151
17	Goffin	151
18	Monfils	201
19	Gulbis	201
20	Isner	201
21	BautistaAgut	201
22	Chardy	201
23	Simon	201
24	Coric	301
25	GarciaLopez	301