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US Open Men's Preview 2016

US Open Men’s Preview – 27 August 2016
To my mind there are six men who could be favoured to win this US Open and another three who have a legitimate chance: Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka, and Gael Monfils.  The traditional favourites, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal, have shown some legendary form this year, but it is fair to question if Cilic, Del Potro, and Raonic will supersede them.

First Quarter
Two of my top six contenders are here, Novak Djokovic (seeded 1) and Marin Cilic (7).  Sporting a 51-5 (win-loss) record for the year and with two slams already in the bag, this year would seem to belong to Djokovic, but he’s been less than stellar since completing a slam at the French and becoming the first man since Rod Laver to hold all four slams simultaneously.  He crashed out early at both Wimbledon and the Olympics. 

In the meantime former USO champ, Cilic, just thumped Murray in Cincinnati and looks to be back in 2014 form when he took the title. Also here are Tsonga (9) and Gasquet (13) who are both capable of at least semi-final (SF) runs.  Up and coming US 18-year olds Taylor Fritz and Francis Tiafoe will probably not it make through their first rounds against US seeds Sock (26) and Isner (20).  And then there’s Kevin Anderson (23) who took Murray out of the Open last year.

Djokovic should beat them all, but with questions surrounding his wrist and with Cilic’s recent form, I’m picking the upset.
Cilic d. Djokovic

Second Quarter
Another two of my top six land in this quarter, Rafael Nadal (4) and Milos Raonic (5).  Nadal stormed back into contention with a fine Olympics, taken out there by the deadly resurgence of Del Potro.  Rafa could run into Lucas Pouille (24) in the fourth round (4R), the 22-year old who made the quarters at Wimbledon.

Raonic skipped the Olympics, but the Wimbledon runner-up has been peaking this year, sitting in 3rd spot in the yearly race.  He could face a very tough 4R against Monfils (10) who is having his best year, finally, at age 29.  Monfils took Raonic out of Toronto, so I take nothing for granted, but expect the Canadian to come through.
Nadal’s draw looks pretty easy, but despite better form of late, I still think he can lose it mentally and let winnable matches slip away.
Raonic d. Nadal 

Third Quarter
Of my top six, only Juan Martin Del Potro lands in this quarter and he is unseeded.  The other possible contender is Stan Wawrinka (3).  There are some tantalizing young talents in this quarter, Dominic Thiem (8), Nick Kyrgios (14), and nineteen-year old Alexander Zverev (27).  There are also some interesting middle-tennis-agers here like Bernard Tomic, Steve Johnson, and Sam Querrey – not to mention David Ferrer (11).  It could get pretty wild in this quarter.

It’s tough to say if Delpo will be able to continue the great form from his silver-medal run at the Olympics in which he took out both Djokovic and Nadal.  I think he will.
Del Potro d. Wawrinka

Fourth Quarter
My last top sixer is Andy Murray (2), and a possible contender here is 2014 runner-up Kei Nishikori (6).  David Goffin (12) has gone off the boil from his fine spring campaign, but the fortunes of Grigor Dimitrov (22) seem to be finally turning around.  He could face Murray in the fourth.
Murray d. Nishikori

Semi-finals
If I’m right, Raonic and Cilic will displace top seeds Djokovic and Nadal and gain a chance to fight for a finals spot.  Their head to head is 1:1 with the last match 3.5 years ago being a tight three-setter won by Raonic.  I really believe Cilic is in title-winning form, but I suspect the desire of the Canadian will trump that.
Raonic d. Cilic

The other semi could be an encore of the gold medal match between Murray and Delpo.  Murray won that episode, but a hungry, healthy (relatively) Del Potro is not to be counted out.  It could be painfully close.  Murray’s loss to Cilic in Cincinnati was not a good indicator of positive head space for the Murray camp.  But after winning Wimbledon and the Olympics, a little mental laxity can be forgiven.  By a hair...
Murray d. Del Potro

Final
I’m predicting the same performers from the Wimbledon final will entertain us on the final Sunday.  It would not surprise me at all if Cilic and Del Potro were here instead, or, for that matter, Djokovic or Nadal.  All have shown scintillating form this year.  If Cilic or Djokovic make the final, I think they will take it.  After that I think Raonic’s chances are almost equal to Murray’s.
Murray d. Raonic

Surveying 21 expert journalist opinions I could locate, there were 10 votes for Murray to win, 7 for Djokovic, 2 for Raonic, 1 for Cilic, and 1 for Nadal.

Odds from bet365.com on 27 August 2016
1
Djokovic
2.2
2
Murray
2.87
3
Raonic
15
4
Del Potro
19
5
Nadal
21
5
Wawrinka
21
7
Cilic
26
7
Nishikori
26
9
Kyrgios
41
10
Tsonga
67
10
Thiem
67
12
Dimitrov
81
13
Monfils
101
14
Goffin
151
14
Sock
151
14
KAnderson
151
14
Tomic
151
14
SJohnson
151
14
Gasquet
151
14
AZverev
151
14
Isner
151
22
Ferrer
201
22
Querrey
201
22
Simon
201
22
Bautista-Agut
201
26
FLopez
251
26
Karlovic
251
28
Kohlschreiber
301
28
Verdasco
301
28
Coric
301
31
Dolgopolov
401
31
Paire
401
31
Pouille
401
31
Troicki
401


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