US Open Men’s Preview – 27
August 2016
To my mind there are six men who could be favoured to win
this US Open and another three who have a legitimate chance: Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka, and Gael Monfils. The traditional
favourites, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal, have shown some legendary form this
year, but it is fair to question if Cilic, Del Potro, and Raonic will supersede
them.
First Quarter
Two of my top six contenders are here, Novak Djokovic
(seeded 1) and Marin Cilic (7). Sporting
a 51-5 (win-loss) record for the year and with two slams already in the bag,
this year would seem to belong to Djokovic, but he’s been less than stellar
since completing a slam at the French and becoming the first man since Rod
Laver to hold all four slams simultaneously.
He crashed out early at both Wimbledon and the Olympics.
In the meantime former USO champ, Cilic, just thumped Murray
in Cincinnati and looks to be back in 2014 form when he took the title. Also
here are Tsonga (9) and Gasquet (13) who are both capable of at least
semi-final (SF) runs. Up and coming US
18-year olds Taylor Fritz and Francis Tiafoe will probably not it make through
their first rounds against US seeds Sock (26) and Isner (20). And then there’s Kevin Anderson (23) who took
Murray out of the Open last year.
Djokovic should beat them all, but with questions
surrounding his wrist and with Cilic’s recent form, I’m picking the upset.
Cilic d. Djokovic
Second Quarter
Another two of my top six land in this quarter, Rafael Nadal
(4) and Milos Raonic (5). Nadal stormed back
into contention with a fine Olympics, taken out there by the deadly resurgence
of Del Potro. Rafa could run into Lucas
Pouille (24) in the fourth round (4R), the 22-year old who made the quarters at
Wimbledon.
Raonic skipped the Olympics, but the Wimbledon runner-up has
been peaking this year, sitting in 3rd spot in the yearly race. He could face a very tough 4R against Monfils
(10) who is having his best year, finally, at age 29. Monfils took Raonic out of Toronto, so I take
nothing for granted, but expect the Canadian to come through.
Nadal’s draw looks pretty easy, but despite better form of
late, I still think he can lose it mentally and let winnable matches slip away.
Raonic d. Nadal
Third Quarter
Of my top six, only Juan Martin Del Potro lands in this
quarter and he is unseeded. The other
possible contender is Stan Wawrinka (3).
There are some tantalizing young talents in this quarter, Dominic Thiem
(8), Nick Kyrgios (14), and nineteen-year old Alexander Zverev (27). There are also some interesting
middle-tennis-agers here like Bernard Tomic, Steve Johnson, and Sam Querrey –
not to mention David Ferrer (11). It
could get pretty wild in this quarter.
It’s tough to say if Delpo will be able to continue the
great form from his silver-medal run at the Olympics in which he took out both
Djokovic and Nadal. I think he will.
Del Potro d. Wawrinka
Fourth Quarter
My last top sixer is Andy Murray (2), and a possible
contender here is 2014 runner-up Kei Nishikori (6). David Goffin (12) has gone off the boil from
his fine spring campaign, but the fortunes of Grigor Dimitrov (22) seem to be
finally turning around. He could face
Murray in the fourth.
Murray d. Nishikori
Semi-finals
If I’m right, Raonic and Cilic will displace top seeds
Djokovic and Nadal and gain a chance to fight for a finals spot. Their head to head is 1:1 with the last match
3.5 years ago being a tight three-setter won by Raonic. I really believe Cilic is in title-winning
form, but I suspect the desire of the Canadian will trump that.
Raonic d. Cilic
The other semi could be an encore of the gold medal match
between Murray and Delpo. Murray won
that episode, but a hungry, healthy (relatively) Del Potro is not to be counted
out. It could be painfully close. Murray’s loss to Cilic in Cincinnati was not
a good indicator of positive head space for the Murray camp. But after winning Wimbledon and the Olympics,
a little mental laxity can be forgiven.
By a hair...
Murray d. Del Potro
Final
I’m predicting the same performers from the Wimbledon final
will entertain us on the final Sunday.
It would not surprise me at all if Cilic and Del Potro were here
instead, or, for that matter, Djokovic or Nadal. All have shown scintillating form this
year. If Cilic or Djokovic make the
final, I think they will take it. After
that I think Raonic’s chances are almost equal to Murray’s.
Murray d. Raonic
Surveying 21 expert journalist opinions I could locate,
there were 10 votes for Murray to win, 7 for Djokovic, 2 for Raonic, 1 for
Cilic, and 1 for Nadal.
Odds from bet365.com on 27 August 2016
|
1
|
Djokovic
|
2.2
|
|
2
|
Murray
|
2.87
|
|
3
|
Raonic
|
15
|
|
4
|
Del Potro
|
19
|
|
5
|
Nadal
|
21
|
|
5
|
Wawrinka
|
21
|
|
7
|
Cilic
|
26
|
|
7
|
Nishikori
|
26
|
|
9
|
Kyrgios
|
41
|
|
10
|
Tsonga
|
67
|
|
10
|
Thiem
|
67
|
|
12
|
Dimitrov
|
81
|
|
13
|
Monfils
|
101
|
|
14
|
Goffin
|
151
|
|
14
|
Sock
|
151
|
|
14
|
KAnderson
|
151
|
|
14
|
Tomic
|
151
|
|
14
|
SJohnson
|
151
|
|
14
|
Gasquet
|
151
|
|
14
|
AZverev
|
151
|
|
14
|
Isner
|
151
|
|
22
|
Ferrer
|
201
|
|
22
|
Querrey
|
201
|
|
22
|
Simon
|
201
|
|
22
|
Bautista-Agut
|
201
|
|
26
|
FLopez
|
251
|
|
26
|
Karlovic
|
251
|
|
28
|
Kohlschreiber
|
301
|
|
28
|
Verdasco
|
301
|
|
28
|
Coric
|
301
|
|
31
|
Dolgopolov
|
401
|
|
31
|
Paire
|
401
|
|
31
|
Pouille
|
401
|
|
31
|
Troicki
|
401
|
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