US Open Women's Preview 2016

US Open Women’s Preview – 27 August 2016

Finally, Serena has a legitimate challenger.  Angelique Kerber has been tearing up the tour this year, making two slam finals, winning the Australian and Stuttgart, and making runner-up at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and Cincinnati.  She will carry a 460 point advantage through the tournament that could have her emerging as #1 unless Serena can better her by that amount.  This means Serena has to make at least the semi-finals to hang on to #1 and break the record she shares with Steffi Graf for consecutive weeks at #1.  But can Serena do it?  She bombed out of the Olympics unexpectedly and has claimed only one slam tournament this year.  She’s still the favourite but the outcome is far from certain.

First Quarter

Serena’s opening against Ekaterina Makarova is far from an easy match.  Makarova has been to the quarter-finals (QF) or better at six slams in her career, including twice at the USOpen.  And she’s beaten Serena at a slam before.  The fourth round (4R) could see Serena facing Samantha Stosur (seeded 16) who beat her in the final here in 2011.  And the QF could bring up Simona Halep (5) whom some are picking to win the tournament.  Also in this quarter are Ivanovic (29), Suarez Navarro (11), and Kasatkina (23).  In all it’s a nettlesome section that will demand Serena be near top form to survive.  It won’t be easy, but she’s still the favourite.

SWilliams d. Halep

Second Quarter

Aggie Radwanska (4) has not done well at the Open, with her best finish here being the round of 16 (4R), something she has accomplished four times.  Can she break through to the QF?  There is little to suggest she might although her draw does not look particularly frightening.  The other seeds, Bacsinszky (15), Bertens (20), and Garcia (25) are not accomplished at the USO, and that might open the door for a deep run by unseeded Eugenie Bouchard, or perhaps the returning from injury Laura Robson.

The bottom half of this section contains the redoubtable Venus Williams (6) and Karolina Pliskova (10) who just stormed through Cincinnati to claim the biggest title of her career.  Breakthrough wins are often followed by retrenchment, so I’ll take Venus for this section, old and fragile though she may be.

VWilliams d. Bouchard

Third Quarter

This quarter is marked by potential and opportunity for players who are just starting to make their marks on tour.  Madison Keys (9) has big enough game to win the tournament, but has not harnessed the consistency to do so in the past.  Will this be the breakthrough for the 21-year old? 

Also here is the surging Johanna Konta (13) who has had a break out year that sees her rising from a triple digits ranking a year ago to the gates of the top 10.  And then there’s Belinda Bencic (24), last year’s rising star who has struggled with injury this year.  She’s still only 19 years old and regaining form.  She could be dangerous.

Facing off in the third round could be gold medalist Monica Puig (32) and this year’s French Open champion, Garbine Muguruza (3).  Muguruza’s struggles since her big win in June suggest a letdown may be likely from Puig, but sometimes the confidence a big win can inspire takes hold right away.  Muguruza could be ready to reassert herself despite never passing the second round (2R) here.  She certainly has enough game.

I think Keys can pass all these tests, although she might have her hands full with veterans Kuznetsova (9), champion here in 2004, or Wozniacki, unseeded this year but a finalist two years ago.

Keys d. Muguruza

Fourth Quarter

Angelique Kerber (2) headlines this quarter but there are some other dangerous names here, like two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova (14), last year’s USO runner-up Roberta Vinci (7), Dominika Cibulkova (12), and Serena’s conqueror at the Olympics Elina Svitolina (22).  Kvitova made the QF last year but has generally not done well at the Open. 

Vinci has had a rather modest year going 22-21 (W-L), but she has quite a fine USO record, making QF or better in three of the last four years.  Most dangerous might be Cibulkova who may be having her career best year, already claiming two tournaments.  The big-hitting Svitolina doesn’t give herself much margin on her shots, but followed up her Olympic upset with a finalist run in New Haven just before the Open.

Kvitova may well take the quarter, but I expect she’ll throw in a bad match somewhere along the line so I favour Kerber to emerge from their potential fourth-rounder.  The other 4R in this section could feature Vinci against Cibulkova.  Vinci could recapture last year’s USO magic and will likely have good crowd support, but Cibulkova is playing some awfully good ball this year.

Kerber d. Cibulkova

Semis

Serena has won 19 slam matches this year, best on tour, while Venus has won 8, which is good for seventh spot.  All my projected semi-finalists are within this range.

Slam matches won 2016

SWilliams	19
Kerber	13
ARadwanska	11
Muguruza	10
Suarez Navarro	10
Keys	9
VWilliams	8

Venus is the only woman in history to claim double digit wins over Serena.  The head-to-head is 16-11.  So anything is possible.  But Serena has to be considered the favourite.

SWilliams d. VWilliams

The head-to-head between Kerber and Keys is definitely in Kerber’s favour, 5-1, and overall I think Kerber’s more consistent game and slam final experience provide a greater probability she will make it this far.

Kerber d. Keys

Final

If Serena and Angelique face off for a third time in a slam final this year, it will start to feel like a dynasty to rival the Djokovic-Murray duopoly on the men’s side.  They’ve split their finals one each this year.  It would be a remarkable year indeed if Serena were to make all four slam finals in one year, something she has never done before, and win only one of them.  Prior to this year, Serena was 21-4 in slam finals.

If Kerber should claim two slams this year, it would be very difficult not to consider her #1 for the year.  But can a player who had previously never been in a slam final, rise to the pinnacle of the sport at age 28?  Will the pressure be too much?

SWilliams d. Kerber

Expert journalist opinion at the start of the tournament had 10 of 20 picking Serena for the title, 3 picked Kerber, 2 each picked Muguruza, ARadwanska, and Halep, and there was 1 vote for Keys.

Odds from bet365.com on 27 Aug 2016

1	SWilliams	2.25
2	Kerber	10
3	Halep	10
4	Murguruza	11
5	Keys	17
6	Kvitova	21
7	KaPliskova	34
7	ARadwanska	34
9	Puig	41
10	Konta	51
10	Bouchard	51
12	VWilliams	67
12	Bencic	67
12	Cibulkova	67
15	Wozniacki	81
15	Safarova	81
15	Svitolina	81
15	Bacsinszky	81
19	Vandeweghe	101
19	Kuznetsova	101
19	Garcia	101
19	Stosur	101
19	Lisicki	101
24	SuarezNavarro	151
24	Ivanovic	151
24	Pavlyuchenkova	151
24	Petkovic	151
24	Kasatkina	151
24	Vinci	151
24	Bertens	151
24	Mladenovic	151
24	Makarova	151
24	Vesnina	151