Wimbledon 2019 Men’s Draw Predictions

Wimbledon 2019 Men’s Draw Predictions

29 June 2019

It’s still the big three.  Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer have won the last ten majors.  Along with Andy Murray they have won the last 16 Wimbledons.  The latest version of the Next Gen looks like the best generation yet to come along during the big three’s reign.  Are they ready to take the next step?

First Quarter

Novak Djokovic has not looked absolutely invincible this year, so perhaps there is hope for the rest of the field.  He’s taken only two tournaments, although they were big – the Australian Open and the 1000 in Madrid.  He’s ‘only’ #2 in the yearly race (behind Nadal).  That’s the good news for the rest of the field.  On the other hand, he’s lost only six times this year, he’s the defending champion here, and he’ll be gunning for his fifth Wimbledon cup – which would make him like Borg.  He’s also won three of the last four majors.

There’s a few of the most promising Next Gen-ners in his quarter, including the young sensation of the moment, Felix Auger-Aliassime.  From outside the top 100 at the beginning of the year, FAA as he’s called, is seeded #19.  The 18-year old has never played Wimbledon before.  In fact, he has only one main draw slam match under his belt, a retirement at last year’s US Open to compatriot Denis Shapovalov. 

What everyone notices about Felix is that he has no weaknesses in his strokes.  He’s technically sound and can execute any shot, even under great pressure.  He’s lanky at 6’4” and yet very fast around the court. He stays calm and makes wise shot selections.  Some of the greatest tennis minds are proclaiming him ‘the real deal’, and a sure fire bet to become a slam champion.  Much as it swells my national pride and I hope this is correct, I have noticed that Felix has not yet pulled any real upsets.  He tends to fold mentally against higher ranked players, especially those a little older than himself.  He’s now been to three tournament finals, but has not closed the deal and claimed the hardware.  That problem could be solved if he keeps rising up the ranks – beating those same players would no longer be considered an upset.  He’s still very young, so that mental tenacity may still develop.  However he is in notable contrast to Shapovalov who seems to thrive against higher ranked opponents.

Also here is Daniil Medvedev (seeded 11).  He’s 23 but still seems to get lumped in with the Next Gen.  He’s had a fine year, as his seeding attests.  He seems comfortable on grass.  He could face David Goffin (21) in the third round.  Goffin has hardly been known for his grass game, but made the final in Halle last week against Federer, so he must be taken seriously.

And let’s not forget this year’s poster boy for the Next Gen, Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) ranked world #6.  Tsitsipas made news last year by beating Djokovic in Toronto, and he really red-lined his press junket when he took Federer out of the Australian Open.  Since then it’s been only up, including a victory over Nadal on clay.  The 20-year old’s strokes may not be as perfect as FAA’s, although his ripped backhand one-hander is a thing of beauty, but perhaps his greatest strength is his attitude.  He believes he should win.  He has that inborn sense of ego that he deserves to be on top and ‘should’ be able to beat anybody, big-three be damned.  He’s a competitor.  If Felix can find that attitude, watch out!

Tsitsipas has beaten all of the big three now and he says grass is his favourite surface.  He could have an almighty tussle against Djokovic in the quarters.  I’d expect Novak’s impenetrable defense to wear through Tsitsipas’ all-court barrage.

Djokovic def. Tsitsipas

Second Quarter

Let’s start this quarter with a look at a few members of the Stalled Gen – those poor unfortunate souls, age 26 to 33, who despite world-class talent have laboured as underlings in the shadows of the big three.  Kevin Anderson (4) was a finalist last year.  He’s missed most of the last three months, so it’s anyone’s guess what he will do.  Milos Raonic (15) was a finalist in 2016 but has also been beset by injury.  Stan Wawrinka (22) is perhaps the only member of the stalled generation to have made good on his talent – claiming three slams, but he’s never been past the quarters here.

Karen Khachanov (10) is in the young cohort at age 23, and he did make the second week here last year.  He could meet Alexander Zverev (6) in the fourth round.  Zverev, age 22, was the poster boy for the Next Gen for the last two years and has three Masters 1000 titles as well as the yearend championships.  It seems he is getting consistently better at the best-of-five set format used in the slams, so perhaps this will be his break-through tournament.

AZverev d. Raonic

Third Quarter

The third quarter is headlined by 12-time French Open champ Rafael Nadal (3).  Nadal has won twice at Wimbledon, making five finals in total, but has not been to the final round in eight years.  He looked very promising in an exceedingly narrow loss to Djokovic in last year’s semi-finals.  He could go all the way this year.  However his draw is unkind.  He could face Nick Kyrgios in the second round.  He shares a 3-3 head to head with Kyrgios, and has made it known that Kyrgios gets under his skin.  After that he could face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Denis Shapovalov (29), both of whom have been tricky for Nadal in past matches and whose explosive games are well-suited for low-bouncing grass.

And in the fourth round Nadal could face Marin Cilic (13) who was the finalist here in 2017.  Cilic has had a sub-par year, but he could still rise up and find his game at a venue where he has recorded so many match victories.

Across the way, Dominic Thiem (5) could have his hands full in the first round against Sam Querrey, who made the semis here in 2017, beating defending champion Andy Murray along the way.  He also took defending champ Djokovic out of the 2016 tournament.  The winner of that first-rounder has a reasonable-looking path to the quarters.  Thiem is not without grass victories, even if he hasn’t shone quite as brightly as on clay.

Nadal def. Querrey

Fourth Quarter

Roger Federer (2) appears to have really benefited from the bump in seeding he received for past performance on grass.  His draw is much more favourable than Nadal’s, whom he bumped.  The fourth round could bring up Matteo Berrettini (17) who has made three finals this year, including taking the title on grass in Stuttgart two weeks ago.  The 23-year old could have a decent run but I expect he will have a tough go against Federer.

Kei Nishikori (8) has not thriven on grass, but John Isner (9) has:  suffering a 24-26 fifth set defeat in last year’s semis to Anderson.  He could be extremely dangerous in this draw, with a chance to take the title, were it not for the broken foot he suffered in losing the Miami final to Federer in March.  It’s the last time Isner played, so his form is a complete unknown.  But his draw looks favourable.

Federer def. Isner

Semi-finals

Djokovic def. AZverev

Federer def. Nadal

Tennis fans everywhere will be glued to their screens if Roger and Rafa play again.  Their last match here was the 2008 final, billed by many as the greatest match of all time.

Final

Djokovic def. Federer

While I think this might be Roger’s last, best chance to up his slam tally to 21, I think Djokovic’s defense will be too strong.

Expert picks

Picks from the panels of experts at tennis.com, si.com, and espn.com

Djokovic – 17 pickers
Federer – 8 pickers
Nadal – 2 pickers

Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 22 Jun 2019.

1	Djokovic	2.5
2	Federer	4.33
3	Nadal	6.5
4	Cilic	12
5	AZverev	12
6	AMurray	15
7	Raonic	17
8	Tsitsipas	17
9	KAnderson	26
10	Kyrgios	26
11	Auger-Aliassime	29
12	Thiem	41
13	Nishikori	41
14	Khachanov	41
15	Dimitrov	41
16	Shapovalov	41
17	Berrettini	41
18	DMedvedev	51
19	Edmund	51
20	Isner	51
21	Goffin	67
22	HChung	67
23	Coric	67
24	Wawrinka	67
25	Berdych	81
26	Opelka	81
27	DeMinaur	101
28	Monfils	101
29	Bautista-Agut	101
30	Tsonga	101
31	Querrey	126
32	Gasquet	126
33	FLopez	126
34	Pouille	151
35	Garin	151
36	Fognini	151
37	Evans	151
38	Schwartzman	151
39	Hurkacz	151
40	Verdasco	151