Wimbledon 2019 Women’s Draw Predictions

Wimbledon 2019 Women’s Draw Predictions

29 June 2019

There are 15 active players on the WTA tour that have won a slam singles title.  And another 15 to 20 that are legitimate contenders.  The recent successes of Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka show that champions can arise from obscurity.  A year ago they were ranked #17 and #18 respectively.  Now they are #1 and #2.

First Quarter

Fresh from her astonishing triumph at Roland Garros, Ash Barty is the new world #1.  She followed up her French victory with a title on grass at Birmingham.  But despite the 12-match win streak, she is not invincible.  However there will be few that can beat her.  If she can stay focused and play like she did in Paris, she can go very deep. Even all the way.  Her well-rounded game and variety of shot seem tailor-made for grass.

But this quarter is murder:  the most deadly quarter in the draw.  Garbine Muguruza (seeded 26) was the 2017 champ and could meet Barty in the third round.  Muguruza has not looked particularly strong this year.  At #18 in the yearly race, she’s respectable and near the bottom end of a strong group of contenders.  A title run would not be a surprise, nor does it look likely.

Nearby are Donna Vekic (22) and Belinda Bencic (13).  Vekic  made the second week at Wimbledon last year and won a grass tournament in 2017.  Bencic has been playing well all year and is currently 6^th in the yearly race.  They are both candidates for a semi-final slot or better, but this quarter will test them.

The next quarter of this quarter features Serena Williams, seeded 11^th this year, and Julia Goerges (18).  Goerges was a semi-finalist here last year and thrives on grass.  Serena is in dubious form and has only played 12 matches this year, but she did beat Goerges in last year’s semis.  It’s anyone’s guess how Serena will perform.  She could lose early, get injured, or win the whole shebang – while injured… or pregnant…

The last section of this quarter contains three former slam champs, Samantha Stosur, Maria Sharapova, and the defending champ, Angelique Kerber (5).  Sharapova has had a rough go of late and is ranked #80.  But I never count her out at the site of her first slam triumph, 15 years ago.  Kerber seems to love grass and has been in two Wimbledon finals.  She has a murderer’s row to face if she meets Sharapova followed by Serena followed by Barty/Muguruza.  And that’s just to get out of the quarter.  This quarter will be tough for anyone to win.  On the plus side, that winner will be match tough; on the down side, they may be exhausted.

Barty def. Kerber

Second Quarter

Kiki Bertens (4) could be a prime candidate to be the next new slam winner.  She could actually become #1 if she wins the tournament.  She’s won a raft of other titles and was in the quarters here last year.  She was touted by many as the favourite for the French last month but had to retire with an illness in her second match there.  I’m not sure grass is her best surface, it’s likely clay, but then again, clay was supposed to be Barty’s worst surface and she took Roland Garros.  Bertens looks to have a reasonable path to the quarters, possibly facing Elise Mertens (21) or former runner-up Eugenie Bouchard, now unseeded, in the fourth round.

Across the way the main contenders appear to be Sloane Stephens (9), Johanna Konta (19), Amanda Anisimova (25), and Petra Kvitova (6).  Stephens looked stronger last year and Wimbledon is her least accomplished among the slams.  Kvitova is certainly capable of great things at Wimbledon, having won the title twice.  She also made the Australian final in January.  Many would pencil her in for a deep run were it not for injury concerns over her playing arm that had her withdraw from the French Open and any grass warm-ups.

That leaves Konta and Anisimova.  The two nearly met in the French final last month but were beaten by Barty and Vondrousova in the semis.  So they both have a hot hand at the moment.  Just 17 years old, Anisimova has already proven she is capable of much.  But grass can be an awkward surface for the uninitiated and I will favour the experience of Konta, on her home turf and a former semi-finalist.

Konta def. Bertens

Third Quarter

If there’s an easy quarter in the draw, or at least one not filled with favourites, this is it.  Elina Svitolina (8) has struggled since her triumph at the yearend championships last November.  Her place in the fourth round could be usurped by Maria Sakkari (31).  The young Greek player is having a fine year.

Also nearby are Petra Martic (24) who made the quarters at the French, 18-yearold Anastasia Potapova, Australian Open semi-finalist Danielle Collins, or the 12^th seed Anastasia Sevastova.  Martic made the second week here two years ago, so I’ll go with her.

The other section contains Karolina Pliskova (3) and recent French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova (16) as its top two seeds.  Vondrousova has no grass cred, so despite her recent good form, I will expect little from her.  Her spot in the fourth round might be taken by Heather Watson, who has an intriguing first round clash with 17-year old qualifier Cate McNally.  Watson has been to the third round three times before, memorably taking Serena Williams to the brink in a 7-5 third set loss in 2015.

Nearby, 2017 French Open champ, Jelena Ostapenko is ranked #34 and unseeded this year.  She made the semis at Wimbledon at last year and the quarters the year before.  She’s a good candidate to meet Pliskova in the third round.  Pliskova looks to have an ideal game for Wimbledon and has had success at other grass tournaments, but has only managed one fourth round showing at Wimbledon.  If she meets Ostapenko, I’ll expect their winner to take this quarter.

KaPliskova def. Martic

Fourth Quarter

Naomi Osaka (2), the current US Open and Aus Open champ, headlines this quarter.  She’ll have a stiff challenge out of the gate when she faces Yulia Puntintseva in the first round.  Osaka has a losing 0-2 record against Putintseva including a straight-setter last week on grass.  She could get 18-year old Iga Swiatek in the second round and either 19-year old Dayana Yastremska, or 20 year-old Sofia Kenin (27) in the third.  All these youngsters are having break out years.

The fourth round could pit Osaka against Caroline Garcia (23) or Caroline Woniacki (14).  Any of these players could emerge from this section, but the odds favour Osaka, I believe.

Also here is Venus Williams who has an intriguing first round match-up against 15-year old Cori Gauff.  It could be a changing of the guard, but I’d expect Venus to pull through.  Venus’s second round could be against power-hitting Aryna Sabalenka (10).  The 21-year old has become a force at the top of the game.  Madison Keys (17) lurks as a third round potential opponent.  Keys tends to play best at the slams, making deep runs, but Wimbledon is perhaps her least accomplished major.

Simona Halep, yearend #1 for the last two years, is down to #7.  Grass has not been her strength and she could face Victoria Azarenka in round three.  Azarenka turns 30 this year but can still threaten anyone on her day.

Osaka def. VWilliams

Semi-finals

Barty def Konta

KaPliskova def Osaka

Finals

It does seem a shame that the three biggest favourites, Barty, Serena, and Kerber are all in the top quarter of the draw.  I have extreme doubt that my predictions will come true.  But in case I’ve been right to this point.

Barty def. KaPliskova

Expert picks

Picks from the panels of experts at tennis.com, si.com, and espn.com

Barty – 12 pickers
SWilliams – 8 pickers
Kerber – 3 pickers
KaPliskova – 3 pickers
Kvitova – 1 picker

Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 22 Jun 2019.

1	SWilliams	7
2	Barty	7
3	Osaka	10
4	Kvitova	10
5	Kerber	13
6	Konta	15
7	KaPliskova	15
8	Halep	17
9	Muguruza	19
10	Stephens	19
11	Keys	19
12	Bencic	23
13	Bertens	23
14	Anisimova	26
15	Sabalenka	29
16	Vondrousova	34
17	Sharapova	34
18	Andreescu	34
19	Svitolina	34
20	Azarenka	34
21	Ostapenko	34
22	Vekic	41
23	Kasatkina	51
24	VWilliams	51
25	Garcia	51
26	Goerges	51
27	Riske	67
28	Kontaveit	67
29	Martic	67
30	Wozniacki	67
31	Vandeweghe	67
32	Sasnovich	81
33	Sevastova	81
34	Yastremska	81
35	Mertens	101
36	Cibulkova	101
37	Rybarikova	101
38	Pavlyuchenkova	101
39	Giorgi	101
40	Collins	101
41	Mladenovic	101
42	QWang	101
43	Potapova	101
44	Swiatek	101