US Open 2019 – Men’s Predictions

US Open 2019 – Men’s Predictions

23 August 2019

Is there any reason to suspect that someone other than the Big Three can triumph here?

First Quarter

Following his Novak-slam in 2016, holding all four slam titles simultaneously, Novak Djokovic took a two-year break from winning, but re-emerged at last year’s Wimbledon.  Since then he’s been racking up slam tournaments, claiming four, and losing only one match along the way – to Thiem at this year’s French.  Djokovic is only two slams behind Nadal and four behind Federer.  I’ll be looking for that gap to have narrowed in two weeks time.

Stan Wawrinka (seeded 23) could face Novak in the fourth round.  He’s been finding his way back to near the top of the game, but I doubt he can beat Djokovic.  At age 34, Stan’s best days might be behind him.

There is an interesting first rounder scheduled between Fabio Fognini (11) and Reilly Opelka – who’s been having a break out year.  Fognini is wildly talented and on the temperamental side.  Opelka is seven feet tall and dominates with his serve.

But the real challenge for Djokovic in this quarter might come from Daniil Medvedev (5) who’s beaten Novak twice this year.  Medvedev made all three finals at North American hard-court tournaments he played this summer.  He took the 1000 in Cincinnati last week, beating Djokovic in the semis.  But when it comes to best of five sets on the slam stage, the betting money will be on Novak.

Djokovic over DMedvedev

Second Quarter

There doesn’t appear to be anything too frightening for Roger Federer (3) in this quarter.  But then again, both John Millman and Tommy Robredo have beaten Federer at this tournament in recent years.  Did Federer really win this tournament five times in a row?  It’s hard to remember because his last victory is over ten years ago.  Regardless, this quarter looks manageable.

David Goffin (15) has been re-ascending the ranks this year.  He’s a bit under-sized and lacking in weaponry, but he does well with what he’s got.  The same might be said of Kei Nishikori (7), a finalist here in 2014.  Milos Raonic (21) has lots of big guns but has never been past the Open’s fourth round – something about it must not agree with him.  Pablo Carreno Busta was in the semis here only two years ago, but is now unseeded.

Federer over Nishikori

Third Quarter

Dominic Thiem (4) leads the quarter.  He’s been to at least the fourth round here four times, making the quarter-finals here last year where he suffered a nail-biting fifth set loss to Nadal.  He won the 1000 in Indian Wells in March over Federer, so we know Thiem can win on North American hard courts.  But he went out quite tamely to Medvedev in Montreal in two quick sets.  Is Thiem really the favourite for this quarter?

The next highest seed is Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) who had a break-out run to the semis in Australia and a very strong spring on clay.  That catapulted him to a career high of #5 at just 20 years of age (he turned 21 last week).  Since then he’s looked a bit skittish, losing his first matches in both Montreal and Cincinnati.  He’s got a tricky opener against Andrey Rublev who’s just put together two solid weeks at Cincinnati and Winston Salem that include victories over Federer and Wawrinka.  Also 21 years old, Rublev was in the quarters here two years ago.

Nick Kyrgios (28) made few friends with his petulant behaviour in Cincinnati that ended with a record-setting $113,000 fine.  But there’s no denying his talent.  Which Kyrgios will show up – the talent or the brat?  Speaking of talent, Gael Monfils (13) is no less flashy than Kyrgios when it comes to shot-making.  Monfils made the semis here three years ago.  He had a reasonably strong start to this year, winning Rotterdam and making semis in Dubai and Sofia.  He also made semis in Montreal two weeks ago, but retired (again).

The young Canadians, Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime (18) face off in the first round of the US Open for the second year in a row, but this time Felix is the seed.  FAA had a very strong spring, making finals on all three surfaces and he followed it up with a run to the third round at Wimbledon.  The summer has been less strong.  Will he re-find form?  Shapovalov looked to be fulfilling his promise when he made the semis at the 1000 in Miami in March, but since then has mustered only 4-11 (win-loss).  Still, he thrives on hard courts.

Roberto Bautista-Agut (10) has finally made the top-10, on the back of a semi-final showing at Wimbledon and quarters at the 1000s of both Montreal and Cincy.  He’s 31 years old and is only now discovering his best tennis. He’s also beaten Djokovic twice this year.  His game, like fellow Djokovic-killer Medvedev, is a model of Novak’s own game – built on consistency, court coverage, and opportunistic counter-punching.

Thiem over Bautista-Agut

Fourth Quarter

For Nadal, like Federer, the draw has been kind.  Nadal has been having a good year and actually leads Djokovic in the yearly Race rankings.  He took the 1000 in Montreal two weeks ago and is a three-time winner at the US Open, just like Djokovic.

Alexander Zverev (6) used to post great results everywhere but the slams.  Now he’s still struggling at the slams and not doing well elsewhere, either.  The talent is there, but he needs to sort out the head.

Karen Khachanov (9) might finally be re-finding the success he displayed in last year’s Paris 1000.  He made the semis in Montreal and survived the Kyrgios meltdown in Cincinnati.

John Isner (14) often has his best results on North American hard courts.  He’s been to the third round or better 11 times at the US Open.  He could face former winner Marin Cilic (22) in the third round this year.  Cilic has had a tough year as his seeding attests.

Nadal over Khachanov

Semis

Djokovic over Federer

Nadal over Thiem

Final

This could be very close.

Djokovic over Nadal

Expert picks

Djokovic:  6 – Steve Tignor, Ashley Ndebele, Steve Flink, Cale Hammond, Jordaan Sanford, Tom Sunderland
Nadal:  4 – Ed McGrogan, Joel Drucker, Matt Fitzgerald, Jon Wertheim
Federer:  1 – Nina Pantic

Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 20 Aug 2019

1	Djokovic	2.1
2	Nadal	5
3	Federer	7
4	DMedvedev	15
5	AZverev	26
6	Thiem	26
7	Tsitsipas	26
8	Cilic	26
9	Nishikori	34
10	Wawrinka	34
11	Raonic	34
12	Kyrgios	34
13	Khachanov	41
14	Goffin	41
15	KAnderson	51
16	Shapovalov	51
17	AugerAliassime	67
18	Dimitrov	67
19	Isner	67
20	BautistaAgut	67
21	Edmund	81
22	Coric	81
23	Pouille	81
24	Tiafoe	101
25	Opelka	101
26	Monfils	101
27	Evans	101
28	Fognini	126
29	Rublev	126
30	Berdych	151
31	Tsonga	151
32	DeMinaur	151
33	Chung	151
34	Schwartzman	201
35	Fritz	201
36	Hurkacz	201